Name: 能源行業可能發生的最好事情 | Matt Tilleard | TED (The Best Thing That Could Happen to the Energy Industry | Matt Tilleard | TED)
Uploaded: 2025-10-30T08:27:25.000Z
Duration: 12 min 50 s

基礎被動語態

我們現代的世界是建立在燃料之上的。

History has been determined by who finds, who controls and who burns the dominant fuel of the age.

歷史是由誰找到、誰控制、誰燃燒當代主導燃料所決定的。

So the past makes sense when you look at it wearing fuel tinted glasses.

所以當你戴著燃料濾鏡眼鏡來看過去時，一切就說得通了。

And these are not just a really great fashion accessory for this year's Fyre festival.

而這些不只是今年 Fyre festival 的超讚時尚配件。

They are in fact essential safety equipment for our leaders as they seek to shape history.

事實上，它們是我們領導者在塑造歷史時不可或缺的安全裝備。

In the 1970s, for example, the oil cartel OPEC led by Saudi Arabia tried to cut off the supply of oil to the United States.

例如，在1970年代，由沙烏地阿拉伯領導的石油卡特爾 OPEC 試圖切斷對美國的石油供應。

Caused an instant panic, a recession within months.

在幾個月內引發了即時的恐慌和經濟衰退。

Trump was 27 when those lines of cars snaked around the block.

當時川普27歲，那些排隊的車輛繞了整個街區。

Our leaders understand in their bones that power comes from fuel.

我們的領導人打從心底明白，權力來自於燃料。

But now we're in the midst of the next great energy transition.

但現在我們正處於下一場偉大的能源轉型之中。

So who will control the future of clean energy?

那麼，誰將掌控清潔能源的未來呢？

Who will be the Saudi Arabia of this transition?

誰將成為這場轉型的沙烏地阿拉伯？

Well, through fuel tinted glasses, the answer seems obvious.

嗯，戴著有色眼鏡來看，答案似乎很明顯。

It's whoever controls the copper, the lithium, the graphite, the cobalt, the rare earths, the critical minerals that we need.

就是那些掌握了銅、鋰、石墨、鈷、稀土，以及我們所需的關鍵礦物的人。

But our fuel tinted glasses are broken because this is the first transition, not to another dominant fuel, but

但我們那有色眼鏡已經破了，因為這不是轉向另一種主要的燃料，而是

Now, I've spent a lot of time thinking about what this means.

現在，我花了很多時間思考這代表什麼。

Our team is building one of the largest distributed renewable energy utilities for Africa.

我們團隊正在為非洲打造最大的分散式再生能源公用事業之一。

Cross Boundary Energy uses on site solar batteries and wind to bring cheaper, cleaner and more reliable power to businesses.

Cross Boundary Energy 使用現場太陽能電池和風力，為企業帶來更便宜、更乾淨、更可靠的電力。

And Cross Boundary Access uses the same technologies to bring first time power to some of the 600 million people living on this continent without it.

而 Cross Boundary Access 則運用相同的技術，為這個大陸上 6 億沒有電力的人們首次帶來電力。

And here is what I have learned at the silicon face of this transition.

而這是我在這個轉型關鍵時刻學到的。

Unlike fuel technology is less existential, it's more circular, it's more fungible, and it's more abundant.

燃料技術不像過去那樣是生存問題，它更循環、更可替代、更豐富。

So I can use one of our projects to explain how this works.

所以我可以用我們的其中一個專案來解釋這是如何運作的。

It's a remote town of 55,000 people next to a major critical minerals mine.

這是一個有 55,000 人居住的偏遠城鎮，旁邊有一個主要的關鍵礦物礦場。

Power for the mine and the community until recently came from heavy fuel oil generators on the mine site.

直到最近，礦場和社區的電力都來自礦場的重油發電機。

Now, Cross Boundary powers the mine with a renewable energy micro grid made up of solar, wind and batteries.

現在，Cross Boundary 透過由太陽能、風能和電池組成的再生能源微電網，為礦場供電。

Soon, we hope that we will be able to phase out the generators altogether.

我們希望很快就能完全淘汰發電機。

接下來，我要跟大家說個故事。

想像一下有兩個聯合壟斷組織。

One is real OPEC who seeks to control the price of oil.

一個是真實的 OPEC，試圖控制石油價格。

The other is an imaginary alliance of the major miners of copper and lithium today.

另一個是想像中的，由現今銅和鋰的主要開採國組成的聯盟。

Now, if you want to run a good cartel, everyone knows you need to have a great acronym.

現在，如果你想經營一個好的壟斷組織，大家都知道你需要一個很棒的縮寫。

And so let's call it the Pisco Sour Peking Duck Foster's cartel, or PPF for short.

所以我們就稱它為 Pisco Sour Peking Duck Foster's 聯合壟斷組織，簡稱 PPF。

Now, let's imagine that each cartel, OPEC and PPF seeks to cut off the supply of their respective commodity to the rest of the world.

現在，讓我們想像一下，OPEC 和 PPF 這兩個壟斷組織都試圖切斷他們各自商品的供應給全世界。

In Tolognaro, before our energy transition, this would have caused an instant crisis.

在 Tolognaro，在我們能源轉型之前，這會立刻引發一場危機。

Without oil, the lights in the community go out and the mine shuts down.

沒有了石油，社區裡的燈就熄滅了，礦場也關閉了。

But after the transition, nothing much changes in Toled Naro.

但轉型之後，在託雷多納羅，情況並沒有太大改變。

And that's because in a fuel based world, constant supply of fuel is existential.

這是因為在一個以燃料為基礎的世界裡，持續的燃料供應是生存的關鍵。

But in a technology based world, without a constant supply of lithium, your old lithium batteries keep working.

但在一個以科技為基礎的世界裡，沒有持續的鋰供應，你舊的鋰電池還是能繼續使用。

You don't need a constant supply of new copper for your copper wires to keep conducting electricity.

你的銅線要持續導電，並不需要持續供應新的銅。

You do not require new a constant supply of new materials just to survive.

你不需要持續供應新材料才能生存。

But technology gets even better than that because it is also more circular.

但科技甚至比這更好，因為它也更循環。

Approximately 0% of the energy from oil can be recycled.

大約 0% 的石油能源可以被回收。

但我們不是燃燒科技，而是使用它。

And so over 90% of renewable energy technologies can be recycled.

所以超過 90% 的再生能源科技都可以回收。

That wind turbine I showed you earlier is actually a refurbished turbine shipped to Madagascar from Italy.

我之前給你們看的風力渦輪機，其實是從義大利運到馬達加斯加的翻新渦輪機。

Although it gesticulates more than our technical team initially expected, by 2050 there could be so much recycled supply that demand for new input materials could actually begin to decrease.

雖然它的動作比我們技術團隊一開始預期的還要多，但到 2050 年，回收供應量可能會非常龐大，以至於對新投入材料的需求實際上可能會開始下降。

But it gets better than that, because technology is also more fungible.

但這還不夠好，因為科技也更具備可替代性。

Now, I'm not actually talking about mushrooms here, but the effect is magic.

現在，我其實不是在講香菇，但效果就像魔法一樣。

Because almost every input into this energy transition can be substituted for another abundant material.

因為在這個能源轉型中，幾乎所有的投入都可以被另一種豐富的材料取代。

Cobalt can be replaced in batteries by iron.

And those substitutions have already happened when temporarily prices spiked.

而且當價格暫時飆升時，這些替代已經發生了。

So even without access to a specific critical mineral, the power of fungibility means that you can continue to grow.

所以即使沒有特定關鍵礦物，可替代性的力量也意味著你可以持續成長。

Now, hopefully you're beginning to feel somewhat convinced that demand for new material will be fundamentally different in this transition because it is less substantial, more circular, more fungible.

現在，希望你開始覺得，在這個轉型中，對新材料的需求將會從根本上不同，因為它的需求量較少、循環性更高、更具可替代性。

And those things together mean that it is more flexible, it is more elastic.

而這些加在一起，就代表它更有彈性，更有延展性。

But we do still have a lot of energy transitioning left to do so we do need new supply.

但我們還有很多能源轉型要做，所以我們確實需要新的供應。

And so here is my final piece of good news.

The materials that we need for this energy transition are abundant.

我們能源轉型所需的新材料，其實非常豐富。

From now until 2050, we need to extract every year around 230 million tons of end use materials.

從現在到 2050 年，我們每年需要開採大約 2.3 億噸的最終用途材料。

every year, currently we extract over 8 billion with a B tonnes of coal.

每年，我們目前開採超過 80 億噸的煤炭。

Every year we extract 5 billion tons of oil and 3 billion tons of natural gas every single year just to fuel our existing energy system.

每年我們開採 50 億噸石油和 30 億噸天然氣，僅僅是為了供應我們現有的能源系統。

所以那 2.3 億噸看起來就還好。

Now we are going to need more of material like copper, lithium, graphite, cobalt.

現在我們會需要更多像銅、鋰、石墨、鈷這些材料。

But this is the second point of relative abundance.

但這是第二點，相對來說它們其實很多。

When geologists estimate the likely resource, they show that it easily exceeds our projected demand.

地質學家估計可能的資源量時，顯示它們遠遠超過我們預計的需求。

They were called rare because they were rarely found in their pure form.

它們之所以被稱為稀有，是因為很少能找到純粹的形態。

They were always found with another material.

它們總是跟其他材料一起被發現。

So sure they're rare, but they're rare in the same way that Bert is rare without Ernie.

所以說，它們確實稀有，但就像 Bert 沒有 Ernie 一樣稀有。

Our identified resource of oil is actually pretty abundant relative to demand as well.

相較於需求，我們已探明的石油資源其實也相當充裕。

And identified reserves of oil are similarly held to critical minerals in a very concentrated set of hands.

而且，石油的已探明儲量和關鍵礦物一樣，都集中在少數人手中。

One, the resource that we have identified of oil is the result of searching for it intensively for over 100 years.

第一，我們已探明的石油資源，是經過一百多年密集尋找的結果。

And we know that oil in general is quite rare in the Earth's crust.

而且我們知道，地球地殼中的石油總體來說相當稀少。

We know that most critical minerals are actually geologically abundant in the Earth's crust.

我們知道大多數關鍵礦物在地殼中其實地質含量豐富。

And we've really only just begun exploring for many of them at scale.

而我們才剛開始大規模地探勘其中許多礦物。

So it's extremely likely that if we try, we can diversify.

所以，如果我們努力嘗試，很有可能我們可以做到多元化。

But second, if we're confronted with the behavior of a PPF style cartel, that angry kangaroo who I think maybe was a little bit drunk, the elasticity of demand gives us the time and the leverage that we need to break the cartel or diversify our supply.

但第二點，如果我們遇到像 PPF 那種風格的卡特爾的行為，那隻我認為可能有點醉的憤怒袋鼠，需求彈性給了我們時間和籌碼，讓我們能夠打破卡特爾或供應多元化。

Now, there will be short term mismatches between supply and demand, but control really matters.

現在，供應和需求之間會有短期的不匹配，但控制真的非常重要。

When supply is scarce and demand is inelastic.

當供應稀少且需求缺乏彈性時。

When supply is abundant and demand is elastic, control will always be temporary.

當供應充裕且需求有彈性時，控制總是暫時的。

Here's one final piece of evidence that can tie all of this together.

這裡有最後一個證據，可以將這一切連結起來。

Can you name me a successful cartel for an energy transition mineral?

你能舉出一個成功的能源轉型礦物卡特爾的例子嗎？

Have you, for instance, heard of these famous copper cartels?

你聽過這些著名的銅卡特爾嗎？

The Secretary Copper Syndicate, the Amalgamated Copper Company, the Copper Exporters association, the Copper Exporters Incorporated and the not particularly creatively named International Copper Cartel.

例如，Secretary Copper Syndicate、Amalgamated Copper Company、Copper Exporters association、Copper Exporters Incorporated，以及那個命名不太有創意的 International Copper Cartel。

These are all real cartels and they all failed.

這些都是真實存在的卡特爾，而且它們都失敗了。