Name: 為什麼特朗普的所有貿易協議都已破裂？ (Why ALL Trump’s Trade Deals Are Already Breaking Down)
Uploaded: 2025-09-19T19:08:02.000Z
Duration: 12 min 41 s

Donald Trump's trade deals are falling apart.

唐納德-特朗普的貿易協議正在分崩離析。

程度副詞

When Trump signed trade deals with Japan, the European Union, and almost with China, they seemed really great for the United States.

當特朗普與日本、歐盟以及幾乎與中國簽署貿易協議時，這些協議似乎對美國非常有利。

情態副詞

Finally, those deals will make the United States great again.

最後，這些交易將使美國再次偉大。

However, the European Union is refusing to sign the final deal, Japan tricked the United States to sign a deal that is horrible for the United States and favorable to Japan, and China is literally using this as an opportunity to create a new world order that will only hurt the United States in the long run.

然而，歐盟拒絕簽署最終協議，日本欺騙美國簽署了一份對美國不利、對日本有利的協議，而中國實際上是在以此為契機建立新的世界秩序，從長遠來看，這隻會傷害美國。

In fact, if you give it a closer look, these tariffs are hurting the United States from inside.

事實上，如果你仔細觀察，這些關稅正在從內部傷害美國。

And if you think that I am exaggerating, let me show you what exactly has happened to all of these deals.

如果你認為我在誇大其詞，那就讓我告訴你這些交易到底發生了什麼。

So, if you are ready, give this video a thumbs up and let's get right into it.

所以，如果你準備好了，請為這段視頻豎起大拇指，讓我們馬上進入正題。

The first deal they signed was with the European Union, and it was a really great deal.

他們簽署的第一份協議是與歐盟簽署的，這是一份非常棒的協議。

Donald Trump raised the tariffs to 30%, but if the European Union will do a few favors for the United States, then the United States will lower the tariffs to 15%.

唐納德-特朗普將關稅提高到 30%，但如果歐盟願意幫美國一些忙，那麼美國就會將關稅降至 15%。

On the other hand, the European Union should not impose any tariffs on the United States, so there will be a 0% tariff on all US goods.

另一方面，歐盟不應向美國徵收任何關稅，是以所有美國商品的關稅都將為 0%。

If you think this is a good deal, then you haven't seen the rest of the deal.

如果你認為這是一筆好交易，那麼你還沒有看到交易的其他部分。

On top of that, the European Union must buy from the United States 750 billion dollars worth of energy over the next 3 years before Trump is out of office.

除此之外，在特朗普卸任之前，歐盟必須在未來三年內從美國購買價值 7500 億美元的能源。

So that's 250 billion dollars for 2026, 250 billion dollars for 2027, and 250 billion dollars for 2028.

是以，2026 年為 2500 億美元，2027 年為 2500 億美元，2028 年為 2500 億美元。

And if you think that is too much, then on top of that, the EU is supposed to invest in the United States 600 billion dollars.

如果你認為這太多了，那麼除此之外，歐盟還應該向美國投資 6000 億美元。

On paper, this is the greatest deal that you can possibly sign.

從紙面上看，這是您可能簽署的最棒的協議。

However, it was a non-legally binding agreement.

然而，這是一項不具法律約束力的協議。

Now, the president of the EU is supposed to take this deal, go to the EU parliament and approve it, and that's only it will become legally binding.

現在，歐盟輪值主席國應該將這份協議提交歐盟議會準許，只有這樣，這份協議才具有法律約束力。

But most of the parties in the EU parliament either completely rejected this deal or are ready to accept it unless serious changes are made.

但歐盟議會中的大多數黨派要麼完全拒絕這一協議，要麼準備接受這一協議，除非做出重大改變。

First of all, the EU is not going to buy that much energy from the United States.

首先，歐盟不會從美國購買那麼多能源。

And secondly, they cannot force privately owned companies to invest that much money in the United States.

其次，他們不能強迫私營公司在美國投資那麼多錢。

The EU government cannot do that because they don't have the money.

歐盟政府做不到這一點，因為他們沒錢。

The only way to make that kind of investment is by the private companies, and you cannot possibly force them to do that.

進行這種投資的唯一途徑是私營公司，你不可能強迫他們這樣做。

But here is the biggest problem with this deal.

但這筆交易最大的問題就在這裡。

The court has decided that Trump's tariffs are unconstitutional, but Trump has time until the 14th of October to appeal that decision.

法院已裁定特朗普的關稅措施違憲，但特朗普有時間在 10 月 14 日之前對這一裁定提出上訴。

But the European Parliament will only approve a final deal on the first quarter of 2025, so that is January and February.

但歐洲議會只會在 2025 年第一季度準許最終協議，也就是 1 月和 2 月。

So if the supreme court will not accept Trump's appeal by the October of 2025, then the EU does not have to accept any kind of a deal.

是以，如果最高法院在 2025 年 10 月之前不接受特朗普的上訴，那麼歐盟就不必接受任何形式的協議。

They can simply say to the United States, listen, your supreme court has called your tariffs completely unconstitutional, so why on earth should we invest this much money.

他們可以簡單地對美國說，聽著，你們的最高法院稱你們的關稅完全違憲，所以我們究竟為什麼要投入這麼多錢。

But some people might say, Donald Trump can still pressure the European Union.

但有些人可能會說，唐納德-特朗普仍然可以向歐盟施壓。

But that's not also happening because in April of 2026, the midterm elections are starting in the United States.

但這並不會發生，因為 2026 年 4 月，美國將舉行中期選舉。

If Republicans want to continue holding the majority both in the house and the senate, then they have to be much more softer with their economic policies, which means that there isn't going to be any kind of a trade war with anybody, especially with the European Union.

如果共和黨人想繼續在眾議院和參議院佔據多數，那麼他們的經濟政策就必須更加柔和，這意味著他們不會與任何人，尤其是歐盟展開任何形式的貿易戰。

But if Democrats are going to win the majority in the congress, then they can make Trump's tariffs impossible to implement.

但如果民主黨能贏得國會多數席位，那麼他們就能讓特朗普的關稅政策無法實施。

Of course, the final decision with the tariffs still remains with the president, and if you want to change that, then you need the supermajority of the congress, but even if you don't have that supermajority, you can simply make it impossible to implement them.

當然，關稅的最終決定權仍在總統手中，如果想要改變，就需要國會的超級多數，但即使沒有超級多數，也可以乾脆讓關稅無法實施。

In fact, they can turn Trump's presidency into one giant scandal where Trump simply won't be able to do anything except fight these political wars.

事實上，他們可以把特朗普的總統任期變成一個巨大的醜聞，在這個醜聞中，特朗普除了打這些政治戰爭之外，根本無法做任何事情。

The second deal that Donald Trump almost signed or still negotiating is a deal with China.

唐納德-特朗普幾乎簽署或仍在談判的第二項協議是與中國的協議。

Now the tensions between the countries escalated to the point where the United States raised the tariffs to 250% at some point, and then both countries realized that this is not how you negotiate, which is why they lowered the tariffs rates, a 30% on China and a 10% on the United States and announced that they will be negotiating within the next 90 days.

現在，兩國之間的緊張局勢升級到了美國將關稅提高到250%的地步，然後兩國都意識到這不是談判的方式，這就是為什麼他們降低了關稅稅率，對中國徵收30%，對美國徵收10%，並宣佈將在未來90天內進行談判。

When the 90 days passed and they didn't negotiate a deal, they extended it until November of this year, and will most likely extend it again for another 90 days.

90 天過去了，他們沒有談成協議，就把期限延長到了今年 11 月，很可能還會再延長 90 天。

If the supreme court will decide that these tariffs are unconstitutional, then China will say, we don't have to negotiate with you anyways, you have no right to impose those tariffs on us anyways, but the tariffs are already causing inflation in the United States.

如果最高法院判定這些關稅違憲，那麼中國就會說，反正我們也不用和你們談判，反正你們也無權對我們徵收這些關稅，但關稅已經在美國造成了通貨膨脹。

We were expecting that inflation is going to go down to as low as 2.3% by the end of the year, but recent inflation data shows that inflation has risen to 2.9%, and if you is going to be 3%, but there is a possibility that it can even rise beyond 3%.

我們原本預計今年年底通脹率將降至 2.3%，但最近的通脹數據顯示，通脹率已升至 2.9%，如果通脹率達到 3%，甚至有可能超過 3%。

But here is why the United States is actually losing this trade war.

但是，為什麼美國會在這場貿易戰中落敗呢？

We have something called World Trade Organization, and in order to be part of the World Trade Organization and trade with the rest of the countries, you have to follow a set of rules.

我們有一個叫世界貿易組織的東西，要想成為世界貿易組織的一員，與其他國家進行貿易，就必須遵守一系列規則。

You have to work on the fact that you are going to reduce your tariffs, you cannot simply prevent other countries from coming into your market, and that's why the United States wanted every single country in the world to be part of the World Trade Organization so that US companies can go into those countries and sell their goods and services.

你必須努力降低關稅，你不能簡單地阻止其他國家進入你的市場，這就是為什麼美國希望世界上每一個國家都成為世界貿易組織的一部分，這樣美國公司就可以進入這些國家銷售他們的商品和服務。

So for example, if you are part of the World Trade Organization, then Apple, an American smartphone manufacturer, can much easily get into your country and sell their smartphones, and the same applies to every other US company.

例如，如果貴國加入了世界貿易組織，那麼美國智能手機制造商蘋果公司就可以很容易地進入貴國銷售他們的智能手機，這同樣適用於其他所有美國公司。

And unlike many other countries such as Germany, Saudi Arabia, the UK, Mexico, China is the second world's largest consumer market, so the US companies can make far more money from China than any other country, and that's why it was extremely important for the United States to make sure that China enters the World Trade Organization and follows the rules of the World Trade Organization.

與德國、沙特阿拉伯、英國、墨西哥等其他許多國家不同，中國是世界第二大消費市場，是以美國公司能從中國賺到的錢遠遠多於其他任何國家，這就是為什麼確保中國加入世界貿易組織並遵守世界貿易組織的規則對美國來說極其重要。

Now you can say that, well, China wasn't always following the rules of the WTO, or the United States violated the rules as well.

現在你可以說，中國並不總是遵守世貿組織的規則，或者美國也違反了規則。

Yes, that is true, but most of the rules were followed by both countries which allowed US companies to enter China, and that's why Boeing dominated in China, Starbucks is all over China, Apple makes billions of dollars out of the Chinese market, and China couldn't simply kick American companies out of China because it was part of the World Trade Organization, but since Donald Trump has started this trade war against the rest of the world and especially China, China has the moral justification to say that, we are going to kick out this company out of China because of X, Y, and Z, we are not going to let American companies to dominate Chinese market because the United States violated the World Trade Organization by imposing so many tariffs.

沒錯，但兩國都遵守了允許美國公司進入中國的大部分規則，這就是為什麼波音公司在中國佔據主導地位，星巴克遍佈中國，蘋果公司從中國市場賺取數十億美元，而中國不能簡單地將美國公司趕出中國，因為中國是世界貿易組織的一部分、但自從唐納德-特朗普挑起這場針對世界其他國家，尤其是中國的貿易戰後，中國就有了道義上的理由說，我們要把這家公司趕出中國，因為X、Y和Z，我們不會讓美國公司主導中國市場，因為美國違反了世界貿易組織，徵收了這麼多關稅。

It was very difficult to do that before Trump's tariffs, but now it gives China the moral justification in front of the world to do that and maybe even create an alternative World Trade Organization where the United States is not going to be part of it.

在特朗普徵收關稅之前，要做到這一點非常困難，但現在，這讓中國在全世界面前有了這樣做的道義理由，甚至有可能建立一個美國不會加入的替代性世界貿易組織。

Before Trump's first trade war, Airbus and Boeing completely dominated the Chinese aviation industry, they had like 50-50 market share.

在特朗普發動第一場貿易戰之前，空客和波音完全主宰了中國的航空業，它們的市場份額各佔一半。

After the first trade war that Donald Trump has started, China began buying less planes from the United States and more from Airbus, and that's why Airbus today dominates the Chinese market.

在唐納德-特朗普挑起的第一場貿易戰之後，中國開始減少從美國購買飛機，而更多地從空中客車公司購買飛機，這就是空中客車公司如今在中國市場佔據主導地位的原因。

After the second trade war, most likely China will make it even more difficult to buy planes from the United States because it will view it unsafe and as an unreliable partner and will start buying more Airbus planes, or they will simply be investing themselves and producing their own planes.

第二次貿易戰之後，中國很可能會更難從美國購買飛機，因為中國會認為美國不安全，是一個不可靠的合作伙伴，並開始購買更多的空客飛機，或者乾脆自己投資，生產自己的飛機。

In the next 20 years, China needs at least 10,000 planes in order to satisfy its domestic market and Boeing could be making hundreds of billions of dollars out of China, but that's not happening because of Trump's tariffs.

未來 20 年，中國至少需要 1 萬架飛機才能滿足國內市場的需求，波音公司本可以從中國賺取數千億美元，但由於特朗普的關稅政策，這一切都無法實現。

Another example, the Chinese government recently asked its tech companies to stop buying Nvidia chips because the United States is unreliable, so they will start buying the local chips from Huawei.

再比如，中國政府最近要求其科技公司停止購買 Nvidia 芯片，因為美國的芯片不可靠，所以他們將開始購買華為的在地芯片。

The third agreement that Donald Trump has signed with Japan, and this seemed like a humiliating deal for Japan, a 15% tariff on Japan and 0% tariff on the US goods.

唐納德-特朗普與日本簽署的第三項協議似乎是對日本的羞辱，即對日本徵收 15%的關稅，而對美國商品徵收 0% 的關稅。

On top of that, Japan will invest in the United States 550 billion dollars, which seems like a lot of money.

除此之外，日本還將在美國投資 5500 億美元，這似乎是一大筆錢。

The only question is that, the Japanese economy is struggling.

唯一的問題是，日本經濟正陷入困境。

Where exactly will they get the money to invest in the United States, especially 550 billion dollars.

他們究竟從哪裡來的錢在美國投資，尤其是 5500 億美元。

Like the total federal budget of the Japanese government is 700 billion dollars, so 550 billion dollars is almost as the entire annual budget of the Japanese government.

就像日本政府的聯邦預算總額是 7000 億美元一樣，5500 億美元幾乎就是日本政府一年的全部預算。

And the profits of these investments will be split 90 to 10, 90% will go into the United States and simply 10% to Japan, which seemed like a fantastic deal for the United States and a complete humiliation for Japan.

這些投資的利潤將以 90 比 10 的比例分配，90% 進入美國，只有 10%進入日本，這對美國來說似乎是一個絕妙的交易，而對日本來說則是一種徹底的羞辱。

But now recently, they have actually signed a real document, and the real document says that it is a memorandum of understanding and not a contract.

但最近，他們確實簽署了一份真正的文件，而這份真正的文件說這是一份諒解備忘錄，而不是合同。

A memorandum of understanding is a non-binding, non-legally binding agreement, which means that both countries or both parties are not legally forced to do anything.

諒解備忘錄是一種不具約束力、不受法律約束的協議，這意味著兩國或雙方在法律上並不被迫做任何事情。

It's simply a shared understanding that we have a plan and we will work together towards achieving this goal.

這只是一種共識，即我們有一個計劃，我們將共同努力實現這一目標。

And this goal is investing in the United States.

So Japan legally is not required to invest that much money into the United States.

是以，日本在法律上並不需要向美國投資那麼多錢。

And the agreement basically says that if Japan is not going to invest that much money, the United States will simply increase the tariffs from 15% back to 30%.

該協議基本上是說，如果日本不打算投資那麼多錢，美國將直接把關稅從 15%提高到 30%。

So that's the leverage that the United States has over Japan.

And now imagine for a moment if the Supreme Court will not accept Trump's appeal on his tariffs and those tariffs will be unconstitutional.

現在試想一下，如果最高法院不接受特朗普就其關稅提出的上訴，那麼這些關稅將是違憲的。

And Japan will simply say, well, our memorandum of understanding was based on the fact that if we don't invest, then you're going to increase the tariffs, but now your Supreme Court does not allow you to increase the tariffs.

日本會簡單地說，好吧，我們的諒解備忘錄是基於這樣一個事實：如果我們不投資，你們就會提高關稅，但現在你們的最高法院不允許你們提高關稅。

So please tell me why on earth should we invest $550 billion into the United States.

那麼，請告訴我，我們究竟為什麼要向美國投資 5500 億美元。

It actually makes no sense whatsoever, which makes the entire agreement just a useless piece of paper or a useless piece of document that does not enforce absolutely anything.

實際上，這完全沒有任何意義，這使得整個協議只是一紙空文，或者說是一份完全沒有執行力的無用文件。

So what do we have achieved out of Trump's tariffs?

那麼，特朗普的關稅政策給我們帶來了什麼？

If the Supreme Court won't accept Trump's appeal, then we are going back to the pre-liberation day and most of these tariffs will be completely cancelled.

如果最高法院不接受特朗普的上訴，那麼我們將回到解放前，大部分關稅將被完全取消。

As if Donald Trump simply created one huge chaos in the global economy that achieved absolutely nothing.

就好像唐納德-特朗普只是在全球經濟中製造了一場巨大的混亂，卻完全沒有取得任何成果。

But here is the real problem, that the damage is already done.

但真正的問題是，損害已經造成。

Most of the US trading partners will be much more careful, they are already trying to diversify and move away from the United States.

美國的大多數貿易伙伴將更加小心謹慎，他們已經在努力實現多樣化，遠離美國。

The European Union is trying to sign a better deal with India, with China, Japan is trying to diversify its trading partners and sell more in South Korea, China and the rest of the world.

歐盟正試圖與印度、中國簽署更好的協議，日本正試圖使其貿易伙伴多樣化，在韓國、中國和世界其他地區銷售更多產品。

As if the rest of the world found out that we have to be much more careful with the United States.

就好像世界其他國家發現我們必須對美國更加小心一樣。

It's very difficult now to make any case for these tariffs because they ended up simply as one giant chaos that did not actually benefit the United States.

現在很難再為這些關稅辯護了，因為它們最終只是一場巨大的混亂，實際上並沒有給美國帶來好處。

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如果您喜歡這段視頻，請務必豎起大拇指，別忘了查看視頻描述中的鏈接。

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