Name: 敘利亞政府軍的存在會再次激化還是平息局勢？| DW 新聞 (Will the presence of Syrian government forces inflame or calm the situation again? | DW News)
Uploaded: 2025-07-20T18:02:27.000Z
Duration: 8 min 23 s

Giorgio Cofeto is a Middle East analyst and the CEO and founder of Gulf State Analytics and joins us from Washington.

喬治-科費託（Giorgio Cofeto）是一名中東問題分析師，也是海灣國家分析公司（Gulf State Analytics）的首席執行官和創始人。

The Syrian government forces are back in Saweda province, we believe.

我們相信，敘利亞政府軍已經回到了Saweda省。

What chances their presence there can calm the situation after the atrocities of recent days?

在最近幾天的暴行之後，他們的存在有多大可能平息局勢？

Yeah, well, first of all, thanks for having me on your program.

好的，首先感謝您邀請我參加您的節目。

It seems that the situation remains very tense and unfortunately, I think the fundamental drivers of the tension, the violence are very far from being resolved.

看來局勢依然非常緊張，不幸的是，我認為造成緊張局勢和暴力的根本原因還遠未得到解決。

What we've seen this past week and what we've also seen at other junctures in the post-Assad period, have included very ugly sectarian killings and it's very clear that many in Syria, who belong to minority communities, simply do not trust the Islamist-dominated government in Damascus.

過去一週我們所看到的，以及我們在後阿薩德時期的其他時刻所看到的，都包括非常醜陋的教派殺戮，非常明顯的是，敘利亞許多屬於少數族群的人根本不信任大馬士革的伊斯蘭主導政府。

They think that the Syrian presidents talk about an inclusive Syria, in a Syria where all the citizens, regardless of sect, are protected and respected.

他們認為，敘利亞總統談論的是一個包容的敘利亞，在這個敘利亞，所有公民，不分教派，都受到保護和尊重。

They don't take that talk very seriously and I think, unfortunately, in southwestern Syria, this might just be the beginning of something that lasts for a very long time.

我認為，不幸的是，在敘利亞西南部，這可能只是持續很長時間的開始。

Unfortunately, I think this sort of speaks to the fact that when Assad fell in December of last year, that did not really mark the end of the civil war.

不幸的是，我認為這說明了一個事實，那就是當阿薩德於去年 12 月倒臺時，並沒有真正標誌著內戰的結束。

Rather, it just brought us to a new chapter in the civil war.

相反，它只是把我們帶入了內戰的新篇章。

So Giorgio, in that scenario, if the fighting then continues with that lack of trust in the background, do you see a scenario where Israel would not re-engage on the grounds of protecting the Druze, if the fighting in Suwayda continues?

喬治，在這種情況下，如果蘇韋達的戰事繼續下去，在缺乏信任的背景下，你認為以色列會以保護德魯茲教徒為由不重新介入嗎？

Well, I think it's quite clear that Israel is committed to taking advantage of the sectarian ethnic tensions in Syria.

我認為，很明顯，以色列致力於利用敘利亞的教派種族緊張局勢。

The Israeli goal is to definitely balkanise Syria and see to it that the country is fragmented.

以色列的目標肯定是要將敘利亞巴爾幹化，使其四分五裂。

So I have no doubt that in this upcoming period, Tel Aviv is going to continue intervening or using the influence that it has to try to deepen the divisions between minority groups, including the Druze and al-Shara's government in Damascus.

是以，我毫不懷疑，在接下來的這段時間裡，特拉維夫將繼續進行干預或利用其影響力，試圖加深包括德魯茲教徒在內的少數民族群體與大馬士革沙拉政府之間的分歧。

So with all of that in mind, and I take your points, however, looking to a perfect world here where a ceasefire is achieved, how could a real functional ceasefire be brokered here?

是以，考慮到所有這些，我接受你的觀點，但是，展望一個實現停火的完美世界，如何在這裡促成真正實用的停火？

What would it look like with all of those parts coming together?

所有這些部件組合在一起會是什麼樣子？

Are you talking about a ceasefire between different groups inside Syria or between Syria and Israel?

你指的是敘利亞境內不同團體之間的停火，還是敘利亞和以色列之間的停火？

If there was to be peace in Suwayda, how would that come about?

如果蘇韋達要實現和平，該如何實現？

What's the most likely path to peace in that region?

該地區最有可能實現和平的途徑是什麼？

Well, I think lasting peace and stability in this part of Syria is going to require the government taking steps to earn higher levels of trust on the part of the Druze and other communities in the country.

我認為，敘利亞這一地區要實現持久和平與穩定，政府就必須採取措施，贏得德魯茲教徒和該國其他社區更高水平的信任。

If there is going to be more peace and stability, the government is going to have to make good on its rhetoric about governing an inclusive Syria.

如果要實現更多的和平與穩定，政府就必須兌現其關於治理一個包容的敘利亞的言論。

This requires accountability for government-linked fighters who have committed human rights violations against different minority groups.

這就需要追究與政府有關聯的戰鬥人員的責任，因為他們侵犯了不同少數群體的人權。

I think that could go a long way to help Shara's government earn some trust and to be seen as more of a legitimate leader.

我認為這將大大有助於沙拉政府贏得信任，並被視為更合法的領導人。

But this is a very difficult path, and it's not going to be easy for Shara's government to do so.

但這是一條非常艱難的道路，沙拉政府要做到這一點並不容易。

We also have to keep in mind that Syria's central government is very weak, and of course what Israel did in these past few days makes it all the weaker, all the more weak.

我們還必須牢記，敘利亞中央政府非常軟弱，當然，以色列過去幾天的所作所為使其更加軟弱，更加不堪一擊。

I believe the central government has roughly 40,000 security forces.

我相信中央政府大約有 4 萬名安全部隊人員。

That's really not a lot for governing all of Syria.

對於管理整個敘利亞來說，這實在不算什麼。

So the Damascus government does not really have great cards, really does not have great options for this government to consolidate control over all of Syria as any government of a sovereign nation would want to do.

是以，大馬士革政府其實並沒有什麼好牌，也沒有什麼好的選擇來鞏固對敘利亞全境的控制，這是任何一個主權國家的政府都希望做到的。

喬治，很高興能得到你的意見。

Middle East analyst Giorgio Kefiro, thanks as always.

中東問題分析員喬治-凱菲洛（Giorgio Kefiro），一如既往地感謝您。

Well, for more details, let's bring in the journalist Berivan Resol, who is based in the Syrian city of Qamishli.

更多詳情，讓我們請來駐敘利亞卡米什利市的記者貝里萬-雷索爾（Berivan Resol）。

Berivan, what are you hearing about the ceasefire there in Suwayda province?

貝里萬，你聽說蘇韋達省的停火情況如何？

到目前為止，停火似乎還很脆弱。

While major confrontations have decreased, there are still reports of gunfire and tension in several neighborhoods.

雖然重大沖突有所減少，但仍有報道稱一些街區發生了槍戰和緊張局勢。

Some local Jewish groups are observing it, but others remain armed and skeptical.

當地的一些猶太團體正在遵守這一規定，但其他團體仍全副武裝，持懷疑態度。

The ceasefire lacks a clear mechanism for enforcement or like monitoring, which makes its sustainability uncertain.

停火缺乏明確的執行機制或類似的監督機制，是以其可持續性並不確定。

Now, the interim president al-Sharia is again deploying troops to enforce this ceasefire.

現在，臨時總統 al-Sharia 再次部署部隊來執行停火。

A few days ago, that wasn't too successful.

Could this inflame or calm the situation?

Like, it's, you can say that it's a double-edged sword for some.

可以說，這對某些人來說是一把雙刃劍。

The renewed deployment might signal a commitment to restoring order.

重新部署可能意味著對恢復秩序的承諾。

But for many, especially after years of mistrust, the presence of government troops is seen as provocative.

但對許多人來說，尤其是在多年的不信任之後，政府軍的存在被視為挑釁。

Unless these forces come with the guarantees for a resprint and dialogue, the risk, like rejuvenating tensions instead of calming them.

除非這些力量能夠保證重新開始對話，否則就有可能使緊張局勢死灰復燃，而不是平息下來。

Now, al-Sharia said that the Syrian state will protect all minorities in the country.

現在，al-Sharia 說，敘利亞國家將保護國內所有少數民族。

But especially considering what happened in recent days, how can he rebuild trust with the Druze community?

但是，特別是考慮到最近幾天發生的事情，他如何才能重建與德魯茲社區的信任呢？

Actually, trust will not be rebuilt through statements alone.

事實上，僅靠聲明是無法重建信任的。

The Druze community has long felt marginalized and abandoned, especially during moments of crisis.

長期以來，德魯茲社區一直有被邊緣化和被遺棄的感覺，尤其是在危機時刻。

Rebuilding the trust will require actions, accountability for violence, genuine inclusion in political decision-making, and recognition of local autonomy and community leadership.

要重建信任，就必須採取行動、追究暴力責任、真正參與政治決策、承認地方自治和社區上司。

Anything less will be seen as more rhetoric.

Now, what effect have these recent days then had on the new regime there?

那麼，最近這些天對那裡的新政權產生了什麼影響？

Actually, these events have been a critical early test.

事實上，這些活動是一次至關重要的早期考驗。

They have exposed deep fractures in the country and the limited reach of the central government.

他們暴露了國家的深刻裂痕和中央政府的有限影響力。

Al-Sharia's leadership is being judged not by promises, but by his ability to navigate a multi-layered crisis.

評判 Al-Sharia 領導力的標準不是承諾，而是他駕馭多層次危機的能力。

Also, the regime is under pressure to show it can unify a fractured society.

此外，該政權也面臨著壓力，它必須證明自己能夠統一這個四分五裂的社會。

But these recent days have shown just how steep that challenge will be.

但最近幾天的情況表明，這一挑戰將是多麼嚴峻。

For the Journalist Barry von Risoldo reporting from Syria.

記者 Barry von Risoldo 從敘利亞發回的報道。