Name: 最新消息：關稅引發大崩盤 (BREAKING: Tariffs Just Triggered Massive Crash)
Uploaded: 2025-07-17T09:41:33.000Z
Duration: 10 min 28 s

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未來簡單式

Any extra income the government will make from tariffs will be wiped out because we have new inflation numbers.

政府從關稅中獲得的任何額外收入都將化為烏有，因為我們有了新的通貨膨脹數字。

to 不定詞

Inflation seems to have risen in June, and I have told you that this is just the beginning and inflation is going to keep rising as a result of these tariffs.

6 月份的通脹率似乎有所上升，我已經告訴過你們，這僅僅是個開始，通脹率會因為這些關稅而持續上升。

But the tariffs aren't just the problem, and inflation isn't just the problem.

但問題不僅在於關稅，也不僅在於通貨膨脹。

The consequences of this inflation now can have catastrophic impact on the entire economy and can lead to a massive crash.

現在這種通貨膨脹的後果會對整個經濟產生災難性的影響，並可能導致大規模的崩潰。

Now, if you think I am exaggerating, let me explain.

如果你認為我誇大其詞，請聽我解釋。

If you look at the consumer price index, which is the main tool that we use in order to measure inflation, it has risen by 0.3% in June.

消費物價指數是我們用來衡量通貨膨脹的主要工具，如果你看一下消費物價指數，它在 6 月份上升了 0.3%。

That is much higher than the previous 12 months.

In fact, in previous 12 months, inflation didn't rise instantly when Trump announced the tariffs, and everybody was like, oh, the tariffs did not cause inflation, so let's have lower interest rates.

事實上，在之前的12個月裡，當特朗普宣佈徵收關稅時，通脹率並沒有立即上升，大家都在說，哦，關稅並沒有導致通脹，所以讓我們降低利率吧。

But there are 3 good reasons why that did not happen.

但有三個很好的理由可以解釋為什麼沒有發生這種情況。

First of all, businesses keep a very high inventory.

Businesses often have inventory for the next few months.

企業通常有未來幾個月的庫存。

So if there is a crisis, if there is a catastrophe, business will continue operating.

是以，如果發生危機，如果發生災難，企業將繼續營運。

If you have a problem with your supplier, you have an inventory in your backyard to keep supplying your products to the market.

如果您與供應商之間出現問題，您的後院就有庫存，可以繼續向市場供應產品。

Secondly, businesses increase prices gradually.

If you suddenly pop up to your favorite store and you see that prices have doubled overnight, you probably will start looking to other alternatives.

如果你突然來到你最喜歡的商店，發現價格一夜之間翻了一番，你可能會開始尋找其他替代品。

And that's why businesses know how sensitive you are to prices.

這就是為什麼商家知道你對價格有多敏感。

They know that you are making this much amount of money, and you will spend on this kind of products this amount of money.

他們知道你賺了這麼多錢，就會在這種產品上花這麼多錢。

So if you suddenly pop up to the shop and you see that prices have doubled or tripled, you're not going to buy that.

是以，如果你突然來到商店，看到價格上漲了一倍或兩倍，你就不會買了。

You will suddenly start thinking, oh, do I need this?

你會突然開始想，哦，我需要這個嗎？

Maybe I will start looking for other alternatives.

也許我會開始尋找其他替代品。

And maybe there are places where you can get the exact same thing at a cheaper price.

也許在其他地方，你能以更便宜的價格買到一模一樣的東西。

So you as a business, how do you prevent that?

那麼，作為一家企業，如何防止這種情況發生呢？

You will start increasing prices gradually.

And then a few months passes and then you increase the prices again and so on and so forth until you will adjust your entire business model and you will be able to deal with those high tariffs and you're making the exact same profit margin.

然後幾個月過去了，你再提價，如此反覆，直到你調整整個商業模式，你就能應對這些高關稅，而且利潤率完全一樣。

But the consumer on the other side kept buying from you because he did not feel the instant price shock.

但另一邊的消費者卻繼續向你購買，因為他沒有感受到瞬間的價格衝擊。

However, he's paying much more right now.

不過，他現在付出的代價要大得多。

And that will be reflected in the inflation numbers.

Secondly, businesses have to prepare for the unpredictability.

其次，企業必須為不可預知性做好準備。

What makes business possible is predictability.

You know, these are the prices, these are the rules, these are the supply chains and you can build business upon it.

你知道，這些是價格、這些是規則、這些是供應鏈，你可以以此為基礎開展業務。

Everything that Trump has been doing so far is being unpredictable.

迄今為止，特朗普所做的一切都是不可預測的。

Yes, it might be good from one side, but it's hurting businesses.

是的，這從一個側面來看可能是好事，但卻會損害企業的利益。

So if we know there is so much unpredictability, how do we prepare for that?

那麼，如果我們知道有如此多的不可預測性，我們該如何做好準備呢？

We are going to charge our clients a little extra fee in order for us to be on the safe side.

為了安全起見，我們將向客戶收取一點額外費用。

The main question is that, what does it mean for you?

主要問題是，這對你意味著什麼？

First and foremost, there are not going to be cuts in July.

Everybody was talking and even one of the people who sits at the board of the chair said that there is a probability of interest cuts in July and everybody was hoping for it.

每個人都在談論，甚至有一位主席董事會成員說，7 月份有可能減息，每個人都希望如此。

However, it's not happening because we have a completely opposite trend of inflation going down.

然而，這並沒有發生，因為我們的通脹下降趨勢完全相反。

Now, we know that inflation is rising and we have to wait for more clarity until we know the final outcome of inflation.

現在，我們知道通脹率正在上升，在我們知道通脹率的最終結果之前，我們必須等待更多的澄清。

In fact, what could happen is that the Fed might even increase the interest rates in order to battle that inflation.

事實上，可能發生的情況是，美聯儲甚至會提高利率，以應對通貨膨脹。

We have another few meetings from the Fed that are going to happen in September, October and December and from everything that I see is that if the trend is going to continue the way that it is right now, then no interest cuts this year.

美聯儲還將在 9 月、10 月和 12 月召開幾次會議，從我所看到的一切來看，如果趨勢繼續像現在這樣發展下去，那麼今年就不會降息。

And that was actually some of the things that I told you, in fact, back in April, if I'm not mistaken, that interest cuts are not happening this year because we cannot possibly measure the full impact on tariffs on the economy.

事實上，如果我沒記錯的話，早在四月份我就告訴過你們，今年不會減息，因為我們不可能衡量關稅對經濟的全部影響。

Secondly, it puts a huge pressure on the bond market.

其次，它給債券市場帶來巨大壓力。

High inflation forces the yields on the bonds to keep rising.

高通脹迫使債券收益率不斷上升。

In fact, it forces the government of the United States to offer higher interest rates to attract enough investors.

事實上，這迫使美國政府提高利率，以吸引足夠的投資者。

If it was a small debt, then it wouldn't be a problem.

如果是小額債務，那就不是問題。

But the debt is so huge that there aren't enough investors on the other side.

但債務如此龐大，以至於另一方沒有足夠的投資者。

Which means that with this kind of inflation, you will have to offer them a higher rate for them to sell their other investments, even investments in the stock market, for example, to buy your government bonds.

這就意味著，在這種通貨膨脹的情況下，你必須為他們提供更高的利率，讓他們出售其他投資，甚至是股市投資，來購買你的政府債券。

The fundamental problem is that over the last 15 years or so, we have been having a period of very low interest rates.

根本問題在於，在過去 15 年左右的時間裡，我們經歷了一個利率非常低的時期。

Starting from 2009 up until 2022, interest rates were at almost 0%.

從 2009 年開始到 2022 年，利率幾乎為 0%。

There was a couple of years starting from 2017 up until 2019 for 2 years when inflation or interest rates climbed to over 2%.

從 2017 年開始到 2019 年，有兩年通脹率或利率攀升至 2% 以上。

However, after that, they immediately went down to almost 0%.

然而，在此之後，它們立即下降到幾乎 0%。

The government has been borrowing trillions of dollars for such a long period of time at a low interest rate, and that did not cause any kind of pressure on the budget of the United States.

政府長期以低利率借貸數萬億美元，並沒有對美國的預算造成任何壓力。

Now, we have a period of very high interest rates and all of that debt must be refinanced.

現在，我們正處於利率非常高的時期，所有這些債務都必須進行再融資。

And if you are wondering, why would we refinance so much debt?

如果你想知道，我們為什麼要對這麼多債務進行再融資？

Because that debt has an expiration date.

If it's a 2-year government bond, for example, then you have borrowed it and it's time to pay off that debt and you don't have the money to pay off that debt, you issue a new debt and that's what we call in the bond market as refinancing the debt.

例如，如果是 2 年期的政府債券，那麼你借了錢，到了還債的時候，你沒有錢還債，你就會發行新債，這就是我們在債券市場上所說的債務再融資。

And this year alone, the government has to refinance probably around 10 trillion dollars of government bonds and next year we have to refinance another 12 trillion dollars.

僅今年一年，政府就必須為大約 10 萬億美元的政府債券再融資，明年我們還必須再融資 12 萬億美元。

It's probably something between 20 to 22 trillion dollars between this year and next year.

從今年到明年，大概在 20 到 22 萬億美元之間。

And all of that will be refinanced at a much higher interest rate because inflation is rising.

而所有這些都將以更高的利率進行再融資，因為通脹率正在上升。

And because inflation is rising, it forces the Fed to adjust into the market and keep interest rates very high.

由於通脹上升，迫使美聯儲對市場進行調整，將利率維持在很高的水準。

So from one side, the US government is making billions of dollars from the tariffs.

是以，從一個側面來看，美國政府從關稅中獲利數十億美元。

You bring something to the United States, but to sell it in the US, you have to pay the government a tariff of 30% or 50%.

你把東西帶到美國，但要在美國銷售，就必須向政府繳納 30% 或 50% 的關稅。

Yes, that price will be passed down to the final consumer.

是的，這一價格將轉嫁給最終消費者。

However, the government is making some kind of money.

So you might assume that the government can use that money to pay off part of the debt.

是以，你可能會認為政府可以用這筆錢來償還部分債務。

The problem is that it turns the government's budget into a bucket with holes.

問題是，它把政府的預算變成了一個漏洞百出的水桶。

On one side, you're increasing the tariffs and you're increasing the revenue for the government.

一方面，你增加了關稅，也就增加了政府的收入。

On the other side, now you have to make higher interest payments.

另一方面，現在你必須支付更高的利息。

So let's take an example of Japan just to simplify the entire version.

是以，讓我們以日本為例，簡化整個版本。

And now you bring a Japanese guard to the United States to sell it in the United States and you pay the 40% tariff to the US government.

現在，你把日本衛士帶到美國，在美國銷售，你要向美國政府支付 40% 的關稅。

Now Japan holds like 1.2 trillion dollars of US government bonds.

現在，日本持有大約 1.2 萬億美元的美國政府債券。

而現在，你要為這些債券再融資。

If you're selling the exact same bonds back to the Japanese government, you are using the tariffs that you're collecting from Japan to pay more interest to the Japanese government, which literally destroys the entire point of making that money in the first place.

如果你把一模一樣的債券賣回給日本政府，你就等於用從日本收取的關稅來向日本政府支付更多的利息，這簡直就是毀掉了你賺錢的初衷。

You're simply overcomplicating everything and making governments wealthier, increasing the prices for the consumers and achieving nothing at the end of the day.

你只不過是把一切都搞得過於複雜，讓政府變得更加富有，讓消費者的物價上漲，最終卻一無所獲。

But this is just the beginning because the United States haven't signed trade agreements with its most important partners.

但這僅僅是個開始，因為美國還沒有與其最重要的合作伙伴簽署貿易協定。

Now if you look at the major partners or the trade partners of the United States, you instantly see that at the top of the list we have Canada and Mexico.

現在，如果你看看美國的主要夥伴或貿易伙伴，你會立刻發現，排在名單首位的是加拿大和墨西哥。

Do we have a deal with Canada and Mexico?

我們與加拿大和墨西哥達成協議了嗎？

We have like a 30% or 35% with those countries.

我們與這些國家有 30% 或 35% 的貿易往來。

There is almost a deal, but that deal is not final and we have no idea if that deal is going to be final.

幾乎達成了一項協議，但該協議尚未最終確定，我們也不知道該協議是否會最終確定。

So there is no deal with Germany, there is no deal with Netherlands, there is no deal with Ireland, Italy or France.

是以，與德國沒有協議，與荷蘭沒有協議，與愛爾蘭、意大利或法國也沒有協議。

Until the United States will sign trade agreements with all of these major countries, especially the largest trading partners such as Mexico, China, Canada and the European Union, we cannot confirm that inflation is not going to continue rising.

在美國與所有這些主要國家，特別是墨西哥、中國、加拿大和歐盟等最大的貿易伙伴簽署貿易協定之前，我們無法確認通貨膨脹不會繼續上升。

Remember, inventories will be over sooner or later.

You cannot possibly depend on the fact that those inventories will last forever, which means that we are going to see higher prices.

你不可能永遠依賴這些庫存，這意味著我們將看到更高的價格。

And if the final deal, for example, with the European Union is going to be much higher than we expected, then inflation will continue rising.

例如，如果與歐盟達成的最終協議將遠遠高於我們的預期，那麼通脹將繼續上升。

You know, but what is more triggering and what is more fascinating, or I would say what is more scary is that we can't even say that how the final deal is going to look like with any of those countries.

你知道，但更有觸發性、更吸引人，或者我要說更可怕的是，我們甚至不能說與其中任何一個國家的最終協議會是什麼樣子。

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最新消息：關稅引發大崩盤 (BREAKING: Tariffs Just Triggered Massive Crash)

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