Name: 以色列的軍事行動如何削弱伊朗的核與飛彈能力 | DW News (How Israel's military campaign has weakened Iran's nuclear and missile capabilities | DW News)
Uploaded: 2025-06-17T16:01:05.000Z
Duration: 6 min 49 s

Iran has been developing its missile arsenal for decades.

幾十年來，伊朗一直在發展其飛彈武庫。

According to U.S. intelligence, the country has the largest number of ballistic missiles in the Middle East.

據美國情報部門稱，該國擁有中東最多的彈道導彈。

分詞構句

In the last few days, the Iranian regime has fired hundreds of them at Israel in retaliation, testing the Iron Dome defenses in Tel Aviv and other cities.

在過去幾天裡，伊朗政權向以色列發射了數百枚飛彈進行報復，對特拉維夫和其他城市的鐵穹防禦系統進行了測試。

Iranian media has reported that advanced ballistic missiles have been used in its attacks.

據伊朗媒體報道，伊朗在襲擊中使用了先進的彈道導彈。

U.S. and Israeli estimates put Iran's stockpile at around 2,000 hours before the current conflict.

根據美國和以色列的估計，在當前衝突之前，伊朗的武器儲備約為 2,000 小時。

It includes medium-range missiles that can be fired from Iran and easily reach Israel and beyond, some reportedly capable of traveling 2,000 kilometers, and short- or close-range missiles that could be used to strike U.S. bases in the Gulf within a range of 800 kilometers.

其中包括可從伊朗發射並輕鬆抵達以色列及其他地區的中程導彈（據報道有些飛彈可飛行 2000 公里），以及可在 800 公里範圍內用於打擊美國在海灣地區基地的短程或近程導彈。

The British maritime security firm, Ombre, says it has observed video footage of the impact of two hypersonic missiles in the vicinity of the port of Haifa.

英國海上保全公司 Ombre 稱，它觀察到了兩枚高超音速飛彈在海法港附近撞擊的視頻畫面。

Iran says the weapons can evade missile defense systems with their speed and maneuverability.

伊朗稱，這些武器可以憑藉速度和機動性躲過飛彈防禦系統。

Let's bring in Frank Ledwich, senior lecturer in strategic studies at Portsmouth University, a former UK military intelligence officer.

下面請朴茨茅斯大學戰略研究高級講師、前英國軍事情報官員弗蘭克-萊德維奇（Frank Ledwich）發言。

How much has Israel's military campaign weakened Iran's nuclear and missile capabilities?

以色列的軍事行動在多大程度上削弱了伊朗的核能力和飛彈能力？

It's difficult to judge the nuclear capability question, but concerning the missiles, there are indicators, and you just heard them before, in the sizes of the barrages that are affecting Israel at the moment.

很難判斷核能力問題，但關於飛彈，有跡象表明，你們剛才也聽到了，目前影響以色列的炮擊規模很大。

So, at the start of the conflict, just only a few days ago now, of course, we saw 100, well, over 100, ballistic missiles launched, plus drones and other decoys.

是以，在衝突開始時，也就是幾天前，我們看到發射了 100 枚彈道導彈，還有無人機和其他誘餌。

Now we're looking at a couple of dozen, which reflects the attritional rate that the Israeli Air Force, or IDF, has taken.

現在我們看到的是幾十架，這反映了以色列空軍或以色列國防軍的減員速度。

Not just the Air Force, by the way, but anyway, the IDF has taken on Iran's missile forces.

順便說一句，不僅僅是空軍，無論如何，以色列國防軍已經對伊朗的導彈部隊發起了攻擊。

But still, it's very clear that they still have a significant capability.

但很顯然，他們仍然擁有強大的能力。

The Israelis say they've attrited 50% of it.

以色列人說，他們已經減員 50%。

Last month, Iran unveiled the Qasem-Basir ballistic missile, saying it was designed to evade air defence systems, like the US-made Patriot system.

上個月，伊朗公佈了 "卡塞姆-巴希爾 "彈道導彈，稱其設計目的是躲避美國製造的 "愛國者 "系統等防空系統。

Both of these have been used, according to the Sijil.

根據 Sijil 的說法，這兩種方法都被使用過。

All of these, I think, have been used, according to the Iranians.

我認為，據伊朗人說，所有這些都已經使用過了。

And I suspect that some of the strikes we've seen on Tel Aviv and other targets over the last few days have been from those weapon systems.

我懷疑，過去幾天我們看到的對特拉維夫和其他目標的一些襲擊就是來自這些武器系統。

I don't think there are very many of them, but they are very capable, using a lot of North Korean and other foreign technologies, but also indigenously developed hypersonic and other technologies, which allows the warheads to manoeuvre and avoid the Arrow and THAAD systems.

我認為它們的數量不多，但能力很強，使用了大量北朝鮮和其他外國技術，也使用了本國開發的高超音速和其他技術，這使得彈頭可以機動避開箭式飛彈和 THAAD 系統。

And, Frank, how are the advances in Iran's ballistic missile programme related to its nuclear ambitions?

弗蘭克，伊朗彈道導彈計劃的進展與其核野心有何關聯？

Well, then, very closely, the primary objective, primary strategic objective, insofar as the nuclear programme exists, is to threaten Israel with destruction, to provide an existential threat and a deterrence out of it.

那麼，非常密切地講，就核計劃的存在而言，其首要目標、首要戰略目標就是用毀滅來威脅以色列，並以此提供生存威脅和威懾。

And, of course, for that, you need a reliable delivery system.

當然，為此你需要一個可靠的傳輸系統。

And these missile systems, the ones we were just discussing, the Qasem Bashir and the Hajj Qasem and others, would provide a capability with a two-tonne payload or so, but slightly less than that, to, in theory, to lift a warhead out of the atmosphere and back into Israel with a reasonable chance of it evading air defences.

而這些導彈系統，也就是我們剛才討論的 "卡西姆-巴希爾 "和 "哈吉-卡西姆 "以及其他導彈系統，將提供一種有效載荷為兩噸左右（但略低於兩噸）的能力，理論上可以將彈頭從大氣層中發射出去，然後返回以色列，並有合理的機會避開防空系統。

So, the two programmes are linked intimately.

But, of course, the ballistic missile programme, now that Hezbollah has gone, provided the main strategic weapon of the Iranian state.

當然，由於真主黨已不復存在，彈道導彈計劃已成為伊朗的主要戰略武器。

And that's a sort of second-line function.

And the nuclear and ballistic missile programmes are very closely related.

核計劃和彈道導彈計劃密切相關。

Israel's prime minister says the goal of this operation is eliminating the nuclear threat and eliminating the missile threat.

以色列總理說，這次行動的目標是消除核威脅和飛彈威脅。

Can those threats from Iran be eliminated from the type of military campaign we're seeing waged here?

我們在這裡看到的這種軍事行動能消除伊朗的這些威脅嗎？

Well, as the experts say, once you have the knowledge to develop a nuclear weapon and the data, that's very difficult to eliminate.

正如專家們所說，一旦掌握了研製核武器的知識和數據，就很難消除。

So, I'm willing to take their wisdom on that.

是以，我願意接受他們在這方面的智慧。

As to the ballistic missile threat, that's simply, well, it's not simply, but it's a question largely of whether or not you can eliminate the delivery systems, which is to say the missiles themselves, their launchers, and the people who launch them, the command and control systems and all that.

至於彈道導彈威脅，這很簡單，但也不簡單，主要是能否消除運載系統的問題，也就是飛彈本身、發射器、發射人員、指揮和控制系統等等。

And I think that's something that the Israelis can hope to achieve over the next few days and weeks, to attrit, which means to grind that down, of course, to something that no longer provides or poses a significant threat to Israel.

我認為這是以色列人希望在接下來的幾天和幾周內實現的目標，即 "削弱"（attrit），當然，這意味著將其削弱到不再對以色列構成重大威脅的程度。

The other thing that Benjamin Netanyahu has said, and we've heard this before, if not stopped, Iran could produce a nuclear weapon in a very short time.

本雅明-內塔尼亞胡還說過，如果不加以阻止，伊朗可以在很短的時間內生產出核武器。

It could be a year, it could be within a few months.

可能是一年，也可能是幾個月內。

I'm not privy to the intelligence that the Israelis have, or indeed that the CIA and the American intelligence system have.

我不瞭解以色列人掌握的情報，也不瞭解中情局和美國情報系統掌握的情報。

They say that Iran is not close to developing a nuclear weapon system.

他們說，伊朗並沒有接近發展核武器系統。

It doesn't really have the intention to do so.

It's just a long-term conclusion of the American intelligence apparatus.

這只是美國情報機構的一個長期結論。

So, it's very difficult to say, but taking the Israelis at their word, they say that once you're down that track, which the Iranians are, it is simply a matter of time before you take certain steps which allow you to develop that weapon.

是以，這很難說，但以色列人說，一旦伊朗人走上了這條道路，採取某些措施來發展這種武器只是時間問題。

Once you've developed that weapon, you have that knowledge, you have all the data, you've got the experimental, you've got the capability, and that's irreversible.

一旦你研製出這種武器，你就擁有了知識、所有數據、實驗和能力，這是不可逆轉的。

Thank you very much, though, for your insights and all that background.

不過，還是非常感謝你的見解和所有這些背景資料。

Frank Ledwich there, appreciate your time.

我是弗蘭克-萊德維奇，感謝你抽出時間。