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  • This is the new one-dose Covid-19 vaccine from Johnson & Johnson.

    這是嬌生公司所新推出的單劑型Covid-19疫苗

  • In early March, more than 6,000 doses

    3月初,有超過6千多劑

  • were supposed to be shipped to the city of Detroit, Michigan.

    本來是要運到密西根州底特律市的

  • But the mayor said, no thanks.

    但市長說,不用了,謝謝

  • "Moderna and Pfizer are the best.

    「莫德納和輝瑞是最好的。

  • And I am going to do everything I can

    而我將盡我所能

  • to make sure the residents of the city of Detroit get the best."

    以確保底特律市民得到最好的。」

  • He was referring to these numbers: the vaccines' "efficacy rates."

    他指的是這些數字:疫苗的 「效能」

  • The vaccines from Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna have super high efficacy rates:

    輝瑞/BNT和莫德納的疫苗具有超高的效能

  • 95 and 94 percent.

    分別是95%和94%

  • But Johnson & Johnson? Just 66%.

    而嬌生公司呢?僅有66%

  • And if you only look at these numbers, it's natural to think that these vaccines

    單看這些數字,你自然而然地認為這些疫苗

  • are worse than these.

    比那些更糟糕

  • But that assumption is wrong.

    但這個假設是錯誤的

  • These numbers are arguably not even the most important measure

    這些數字根本就不是拿來

  • of how effective these vaccines are.

    衡量疫苗效力高低的重要因素

  • To understand what is, you first have to understand what vaccines are even supposed to do.

    該拿什麼來衡量,首先要了解到底疫苗的功用是什麼

  • A vaccine's efficacy rate is calculated in large clinical trials,

    疫苗的效能是通過大型臨床試驗計算出來的

  • when the vaccine is tested on tens of thousands of people.

    當疫苗在數以萬計的人身上測試時

  • Those people are broken into two groups:

    這些人分為兩組

  • half get the vaccine, and half get a placebo.

    一組打疫苗,另一組打安慰劑

  • Then, they're sent out to live their lives,

    然後,他們被送回家正常過生活

  • while scientists monitor whether or not they get Covid-19 over several months.

    而科學家們在幾個月內監測他們是否感染了 Covid-19

  • In the trial for Pfizer/BioNTech, for example, there were 43,000 participants.

    以輝瑞/BNT的試驗為例,在43,000名參與者中

  • In the end, 170 people were infected with Covid-19.

    最後有170人感染了 Covid-19

  • And how those people fall into each of these groups determines a vaccine's efficacy.

    而這些感染者在兩個組別中的比例,決定了疫苗的效能

  • If the 170 were evenly split,

    如果這170人平分散落於兩組的話

  • that would mean you're just as likely to get sick with the vaccine as without it.

    就意味著打不打疫苗都一樣容易生病

  • So it would have a 0% efficacy.

    那麼它的效能是零

  • If all 170 were in the placebo group, and zero people who got the vaccine were sick,

    如果170人都在安慰劑組,而打了疫苗的人沒人得病

  • the vaccine would have an efficacy of 100%.

    疫苗的效能則達到100%

  • With this particular trial, there were 162 in the placebo group,

    假設在這項試驗中,安慰劑組有162人得病

  • and just eight in the vaccine group.

    而疫苗組只有8人

  • It means those who had the vaccine were 95% less likely to get Covid-19:

    那就意味著那些接種了疫苗的人感染Covid-19的可能性降低了95%。

  • The vaccine had a 95% efficacy.

    該疫苗的有效率為95%

  • Now, this doesn't mean that if 100 people are vaccinated, 5 of them will get sick.

    這並不是指每100個人接種了疫苗,就有5個人會生病

  • Instead, that 95% number applies to the individual.

    相反的,這95%的數字是針對個人

  • So, each vaccinated person is 95% less likely than a person without a vaccine

    所以,每個接種過疫苗的人在每次接觸Covid-19時

  • to get sick, each time they're exposed to Covid-19.

    比沒有接種過疫苗的人少了95%得病的可能性

  • And every vaccine's efficacy rate is calculated in the same way.

    而每一種疫苗的效能都是以同樣的方式計算的

  • But each vaccine's trial might be done in very different circumstances.

    然而每種疫苗的臨床試驗情況不盡相同

  • "So, one of the biggest considerations here, when we look at these numbers,

    「所以,當我們在看這些數據的時候,最重要的一點

  • is the timing in which these clinical trials were performed."

    是這些臨床試驗進行的時間點。」

  • This is the number of daily Covid-19 cases in the US since the pandemic began.

    這是美國自疫情開始以來,每天的Covid-19確診人數

  • The Moderna trial was done completely in the US, here, in the summer.

    莫德納的臨床試驗完全在夏日的美國完成的

  • The Pfizer/BioNTech trial was primarily based in the US, too, and at the same time.

    同一時間,輝瑞/BNT的臨床試驗主要也是在美國進行

  • Johnson & Johnson, however, held their US trial at this time,

    然而,嬌生公司在美國的臨床試驗,卻是在不同時候進行的

  • when there were more opportunities for participants to be exposed to infections.

    此時的參與者接觸到病毒的機會更高

  • And most of their trial took place in other countries, primarily South Africa and Brazil.

    而且他們的臨床試驗大多在其他國家進行,主要在南非和巴西

  • And in these other countries, not only were case rates high,

    在這些國家,不僅確診案例高

  • but the virus itself was different.

    病毒也不同株

  • The trials took place as variants of Covid-19 emerged,

    臨床試驗是在Covid-19出現變異種的時候進行的

  • and became the dominant infections in these countries;

    而變種病毒正在這些國家(南非、巴西)肆虐

  • variants that are more likely to get participants sick.

    變種病毒本身就更容易讓試驗參與者生病

  • In South Africa, most of the cases in the Johnson & Johnson trial were that of the variant,

    在南非,嬌生公司臨床試驗的大部分病例,都是感染變種病毒

  • not the original strain that was in the US over the summer.

    與美國在夏季的病毒就不一樣了

  • And despite that, it still significantly reduced infections.

    儘管如此,疫苗還是大大降低了傳染率

  • "If you're trying to make one-to-one, head-to-head comparisons between vaccines,

    「如果你想直接進行疫苗PK

  • they need to have been studied in the same trial, with the same inclusion criteria,

    它們必須在同一臨床試驗中進行研究,並採用相同的收案標準

  • in the same parts of the world, at the same time."

    在同一個地區,在同一時間。」

  • "If we were to take Pfizer and Moderna's vaccines,

    「如果我們在嬌生疫苗臨床試驗的同一時間

  • and redo their clinical trial at the same time that we saw J&J's clinical trial,

    重新對輝瑞和莫德納的疫苗進行臨床試驗

  • we might see quite different efficacy numbers for those."

    我們可能會看到完全不同的效能結果。」

  • These efficacy numbers really just tell you what happened in each vaccine's trial,

    這些效能的數字僅告訴你每個疫苗在該臨床試驗中的結果

  • not exactly what will happen in the real world.

    但並不代表現實世界的效價也是如此

  • But many experts argue this isn't even the best number to judge a vaccine by anyway.

    很多專家認為,無論如何這都不是評斷疫苗的最佳指標

  • Because preventing any infection at all is not always the point of a vaccine.

    因為預防所有的感染並非總是疫苗的目的

  • "The goal of a vaccine program for Covid-19 is not necessarily to get to 'Covid zero,'

    「Covid-19疫苗計劃的目標並不是要把感染率降到零

  • but it's to tame this virus, to defang it,

    而是要削弱這隻病毒,並解除它的威脅

  • to remove its ability to cause serious disease, hospitalization, and death."

    讓它無法導致患者出現重症、住院甚至死亡。」

  • It helps to look at the different outcomes of an exposure to Covid-19 like this:

    綜觀感染Covid-19後的各種結局:

  • The best-case scenario is, you don't get sick at all.

    最好的情況是,你根本不會得病

  • The worst case is death.

    而最壞的情況是死亡

  • In between, there's being hospitalized, severe-to-moderate symptoms,

    在中間則有住院、重度到輕度的症狀

  • or having no symptoms at all.

    或完全沒有症狀

  • In the absolute best circumstances, vaccines give you protection all the way to here.

    在最好的情況下,疫苗給你的全面的保護

  • But realistically, that isn't the main objective of Covid-19 vaccines.

    但現實上,這並不是Covid-19疫苗的主要目的

  • The real purpose is to give your body enough protection to cover these possibilities,

    真正的目的是給你的身體提供足夠的保護,來應付這些症狀

  • so if you do get an infection, it feels more like a cold

    假使你真的中了,會有類似感冒的症狀

  • than something you'd be hospitalized for.

    而不是嚴重到需要住院

  • And this is one thing that every one of these Covid-19 vaccines do well.

    而這也是每一種Covid-19疫苗都能做到的事

  • In all these trials, while some people in the placebo groups were hospitalized,

    在所有臨床試驗中,當安慰劑組中某些感染COVID-19的人需要住院

  • or even died from Covid-19,

    甚至是死亡的同時

  • not one fully vaccinated person, in any of these trials,

    在每一個臨床試驗中完整接種過疫苗的人

  • was hospitalized or died from Covid-19.

    沒有人因為感染Covid-19而住院或死亡

  • "One thing that I wish that mayor would have understood,

    「我希望那位市長能明瞭

  • was that all three vaccines have essentially 100% effectiveness in protecting from death."

    這三種疫苗基本上百分之百避免了死亡。」

  • The mayor of Detroit did backtrack, and said he'd start taking Johnson & Johnson doses,

    底特律市長也確實改變了過去的主張,他說他會開始使用嬌生公司的疫苗

  • because it's still "highly effective against what we care about most."

    因為它非常有效地避免了我們最擔心的事情

  • Efficacy matters. But it doesn't matter the most.

    效能固然重要,但並不是最重要的

  • The question isn't which vaccine will protect you from any Covid infection,

    問題不在於哪種疫苗能保護你免受Covid-19的感染

  • but which one will keep you alive?

    而是哪一種能讓你保命

  • Or out of the hospital?

    哪一種能讓你免於住院

  • Which one will help end the pandemic?

    哪一種有助於結束這次疫情

  • And that's any of them.

    答案是任何一種

  • "The best vaccine right now for you is the one that you're offered."

    「最好的疫苗就是現在你能施打到的那一種。」

  • "With each shot that goes into someone's arm, we get closer to the end of this pandemic."

    「當每一針打進某人的手臂,我們就更接近疫情的終點。」

This is the new one-dose Covid-19 vaccine from Johnson & Johnson.

這是嬌生公司所新推出的單劑型Covid-19疫苗

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B1 中級 中文 Vox 疫苗 試驗 強生 輝瑞 covid

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