and war.

與戰爭

The insane brutality of ISIS continues,

伊斯蘭國的瘋狂持續蔓延

the Russians are invading Ukraine,

俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭

and the Palestinians and Israelis

而巴勒斯坦人和以色列人 仍在持續相互屠殺

continue to slug it out.

而巴勒斯坦人和以色列人 仍在持續相互屠殺

Does that make you feel gloomy?

這些事件會讓你感到陰鬱不安嗎?

Well

這個嘛.....

don't.

最好不要

Because if you look at the numbers

因為看向統計數據

war actually seems

戰爭似乎正在慢慢消失

to be going out of fashion,

戰爭似乎正在慢慢消失

while the global population

正當世界總人口數

is at an all time high.

以史上最高速持續上升

It seems that we live

不過看來

in the most peaceful period

我們正居住在人類史上最和平時代

in human history.

我們正居住在人類史上最和平時代

How is this possible?

這怎麼可能阿?

(music)

從2014年9月的數據看來

As of September 2014,

單在2013年1月

there were 4 conflicts going on

在世界各處就有4個

in the world that'd caused at least

造成至少萬人死亡的大衝突

10,000 people to die since January 2013.

9個千人死亡的中等衝突

9 conflicts that killed

和13個百人死亡的小衝突

more than 1,000 people

看來好像沒有那麼和平

and 13 that killed

不過仔細想想

more than 100 since January 2013.

這些事件全部都侷限於單國內

Not really peaceful,

沒有一個是國與國間的戰爭

but consider this:

他們要不是內戰

of all the conflicts going on

就是當地的衝突

none is an active war between countries.

雖然內戰本身已經是個造成多人流離失所的糟糕事情

They are either civil wars

但他們的影響通常比國與國間的戰爭還要輕微

or local conflicts.

當兩國正式宣戰

Although civil wars are terrible

他們會動員更大規模的軍力

and cause huge suffering,

使用所有的資源和可調動的物資

their impact is usually way smaller

和幾乎全部的人口

than a war between nations or empires.

但為什麼戰爭的型態會從

When two nations engage in war,

國與國間的鬥爭

they can mobilise much bigger forces,

轉換成國內的爭鬥呢?

have access to all of the state's

這種轉變一般認為

resources and logistics and

和殖民統治與冷戰有關

almost all of the population.

在冷戰結束時，大規模武裝鬥爭的理由也消失了

So why have we transitioned from

但共產國家的崩解

wars between nation states

造成了新興國家的成立

wars between nation states

也帶來全新的火種

A lot of it is to do with

那些火種通常會以內戰的方式收尾

colonialism and the cold war.

簡單來說

When the cold war ended, a major driver of

在1945年

armed conflicts vanished too.

幾乎全部的非洲，大部分的亞洲

But the break up of the

和小部分的拉丁美洲

communist dictatorships

是遭到殖民統治的

revealed new or old tensions

但在1990年時

and brought new conflicts

除了部分的小島外，大多都是獨立國家了

in the now freed states

等等!

which often resulted in civil war.

你可能會好奇

Much more importantly,

難道現在跨國企業在第三世界的所作所為

in 1945,

不會比單純的殖民他們還要糟嗎?

nearly all of Africa, much of Asia,

我們以剛果共和國為例

and parts of Latin America

他在1885年時被比利時國王以殖民地的形態成立

were under colonial rule.

他在1885年時被比利時國王以殖民地的形態成立

By 1990,

國土有比利時的整整80倍大

all but a few islands were independent.

宗主國以高壓方式統治剛果地區

But wait.

宗主國以高壓方式統治剛果地區

Couldn't you argue that what today's

為求得到最大經濟利益

multinational corporations

也因此殺死了大半的當地居民

are doing in the third world

在1908年時

is just as bad as colonialism?

大約千萬名當地居民慘遭殺害或活活餓死

Let's look at Congo.

百萬居民受到暴力脅迫與壓榨 以從中得到利益

It was established as a colony in 1885

這種對當地居民的強迫勞動 從來沒有真正的停止

by the Belgium king.

一直到比利時的統治在1960年結束

An area 80 times the size of Belgium.

這從現在看來倒也不是那麼久以前的事情

Violence committed against

所以，不對

the indigenous Congolese

殖民主義確實

and the ruthless system of

較禿鷹式的資本主義糟糕

economic exploitation

而殖民主義在大概兩世代前才剛結束而已

had killed about half of the population

而現在進行中的

by 1908.

大部分衝突

About 10 million Congolese were executed

多發生於60年前

or starved to death.

被他國所控制的國家

Millions were mutilated and traumatised.

但事情也正步步好轉

The economic exploitation of the Congo

在1989年時

remained the top priority

單方面勝利的內戰十分常見

and forced labor never really ceased

但現在這種情形比較少見了

completely until the end of Belgium rule

同時，

in 1960.

談判收尾的戰爭比率也從10%上升到近40%

Which is not really that long ago.

那世界上的其他地方呢?

So, no.

為什麼國與國間不再廝殺?

Colonialism was much worse than

這主要有四個理由

vulture capitalism is today

第一，

and it ended just two generations ago.

民主主義盛行

Most of the conflicts

世界各國自獨裁轉為民主

that are going on right now

世界各國自獨裁轉為民主

are in areas that 60 years ago

而民主國家較不容易發動戰爭

were under foreign control.

自1900年後的國與國間戰爭

But things are getting better.

鮮少是民主國家間的戰爭

Until 1989,

第二

victory for one side in a civil war

全球化

was common

戰爭已經不再像以前一樣可以有效的獲得經濟利益

while nowadays victories are much rarer.

現在自市場上購買物資總是比武力爭討還要便宜

At the same time,

非本國人現在是活著比死了還好

negotiated endings have jumped from 10%

從過去的想法來說，是一個嶄新的概念

to almost 40%.

三，

What about the rest of the world?

戰爭太落伍啦

Why have nation states

從一次世界大戰以前，

stopped attacking each other?

戰爭一向是人類用以解決問題的方法

There are 4 major reasons:

也是最好的工具

One.

特別是當外交途徑碰壁時

Democratisation.

而現在我們有一大堆的國際法案

The steady development

規定我們任意使用武力是違法的

from autocracy to democracy.

致命武力僅能用於自衛

Democracies hardly ever fight each other.

或在聯合國安全理事會允許下使用

Of all the state against state wars

雖然這些規矩仍常被打破

fought since 1900, only a minority

但很難不引起國際譴責和反對

were fought between democracies.

更何況，海牙國際法庭的成立

Two.

讓戰犯難以撇清責任

Globalisation.

這是也最近才有的革新

War is just not as effective at achieving

四，

economic goals as it used to be.

邊界問題現在大多已經解決

Today it's almost always cheaper

在第二次世界大戰後，

to buy resources on the global market

領土戰爭大多已經結束

than to cease them by force.

各國多已承認新國界線

People from other nations are

也學會了要尊重他國主權

more valuable to us alive than dead.

但這些究竟是暫時的異常

Which, overall, is a pretty new concept.

還是我們真的正在走向和平呢?

Three.

老實說，

War is so 20th century.

我們不知道

Until World War I, warfare was seen as an

我們需要更多的時間才能得知

inevitable part of the human experience

從歷史看來，

and as a valuable tool which you could use

我們每隔百年就要有一場大型戰爭

to achieve goals when diplomacy

從二戰至今仍未經過太多時間

hit a brick wall.

我們依舊無法得知

Today we have rules that declare acts of

戰爭是否真的正向我們遠去

aggression illegal and stipulate that

但若在75年內不在有大型戰爭發生

armed forces is only justified in

但若在75年內不在有大型戰爭發生

self-defence or with the authority of the

我們應該可以自信的說

UN Security Council.

人類學乖了

These rules are still broken but today

看，戰爭或許將要結束

it's harder to do so without sparking

是的，儘管各地仍有各種鬥爭

oppositions and disapproval.

但總的來說，事情正在好轉

Also, we have an international court for

而且我們可以藉由推廣和平與民主

war crimes in The Hague.

來加速和解的到來

And that's a very recent innovation.

翻譯：奶綠 歡迎指正，但不確定有沒有辦法更改 此翻譯以意義傳達為宗旨，不應用於英語學習

Four.

Borders are mostly fixed now.

After World War II,

territorial wars generally stopped

when most countries pledged to accept

international borders

and respect other nations autonomy.

But is all of this just an anomaly

or are we on the road to lasting peace?

Truth is

we don't know yet.

We need a big enough sample to rule out

the historical average, which is about

one or two big wars per century.

We just haven't had enough time since

World War II to rule out the possibility

that war is not going away.

If we don't have one major war

in the next 75 years,

we can be really confident

that humanity is changing.

So you see, war might be over.

Yes there are nasty conflicts

going on in many places but overall,

things are getting better.

And we can make them even better

by speaking up for peace and democracy.

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