Name: How the US-Israel war with Iran hits food, plastics and prices worldwide | The Dip Podcast
Uploaded: 2026-03-31T16:56:48.000Z
Duration: 11 min 4 s

This conflict is going to have a very, uh, damaging effect on global food security, whether it's in the United States, Europe, or elsewhere.

這場衝突將對全球糧食安全造成非常、呃，嚴重的影響，無論是在美國、歐洲或其他地方。

You will see global food prices rise, and

你們會看到全球糧食價格上漲，而且

情態副詞

potentially, in a worst-case scenario, uh, global food become more scarce.

在最壞的情況下，呃，全球糧食可能會變得更加短缺。

I am worried about a food crisis across the Middle East, uh, from a humanitarian perspective, but

我擔心，呃，從人道主義觀點來看，中東地區會出現糧食危機，但是

right now I think, uh, Iran and Iraq are the most vulnerable to such a crisis.

現在我認為，呃，伊朗和伊拉克最容易受到這種危機的影響。

The U.S. relies on imports for a significant bit of its fertilizer needs.

美國的肥料需求有很大一部分依賴進口。

It's becoming obvious that it's very hard to diversify in a hurry, so farmers, to say the least, have a problem, especially in the Midwest.

顯然，想要立刻多元化非常困難，所以農民們，至少可以說，遇到了問題，尤其是在中西部。

The war has driven up the price of oil, but

這場戰爭推高了石油價格，但是

that doesn't just mean increasing prices at the pump.

這不只意味著加油站的價格上漲。

It means, uh, the price of vital chemicals rises too.

這意味著，嗯，重要化學品的價格也會上漲。

And you might not think about chemicals all day;

I mean, it's not what I how I spend my time.

我的意思是，這不是我怎麼打發時間的事。

But things like fertilizer are absolutely essential, and when it gets more expensive, your food bills rise.

但像肥料這種東西絕對是必需品，當它變貴時，你的食品帳單就會增加。

In fact, chemicals that come from oil are upstream inputs to construction, cars, medicine, clothing, tech, and

事實上，來自石油的化學品是建築、汽車、醫藥、服飾、科技，

這場衝突將對全球糧食安全造成非常、嗯，破壞性的影響，無論是在美國、歐洲還是其他地方。

And so just look at the prices for different commodities.

所以我們來看看不同商品的價格。

So the price of urea and ammonia, which are both very critical inputs into agricultural supply chains, uh, they're up 50% and 20%, respectively, uh, since this war began, uh, last in, in, in early sorry, late February.

是以，尿素和氨的價格，這兩者都是農業供應鏈中非常關鍵的投入品，嗯，自從這場戰爭開始以來，嗯，在二月下旬，抱歉，在二月下旬，它們分別上漲了 50% 和 20%。

And so the U.S., for instance, we rely on urea im urea imports for about 50%, um, of domestic consumption.

所以像是美國，我們國內消耗的尿素大約有 50% 是仰賴進口。

And so just with those rising prices, uh, you're going to see a very significant increase in costs.

所以光是這些價格上漲，你就會看到成本大幅增加。

There's also other costs for agricultural producers that are rising.

還有其他農業生產者的成本也在上漲。

Uh, diesel, for instance, is a is a is a modest but significant, uh, driver of agricultural costs.

像是機油，它對農業成本的影響雖然不大但也很重要。

And so you will see, uh, global food prices rise, and

所以你會看到全球糧食價格上漲，

甚至在最糟的情況下，全球糧食會變得更短缺。

then there's also a lot of other products that could be affected.

但還有很多其他產品也可能受到影響。

So could you walk us through simply how disruption in the Persian Gulf ends up affecting a plastic bottle or a synthetically, uh, synthetic fabric jacket in Europe?

所以，您可以簡單跟我們說明一下，波斯灣的供應中斷，最後是怎麼影響到歐洲的塑膠瓶或合成纖維外套的呢？

So, uh, the Persian Gulf and, and Arab states are, are very important for global energy production.

所以，波斯灣和阿拉伯國家在全球能源生產上扮演著非常重要的角色。

So about 20% of oil production and 20% of liquefied natural gas, or LNG production, uh, must traverse the Strait of Hormuz.

大約有 20% 的石油產量和 20% 的液化天然氣（LNG）產量，必須通過荷姆茲海峽。

And so if you take and these are very and demand for these products is very inelastic, meaning that if the price of gasoline rises, you're still going to want to drive places.

而且這些產品的需求彈性非常小，也就是說，如果汽油價格上漲，你還是會想開車去某些地方。

And so these outages for, for gas for natural gas and for, for oil, um, are, are going to have major impacts on prices.

所以，這些天然氣和石油的供應中斷，將會對價格造成重大影響。

Uh, but they're also going to impact petrochemicals.

So as you noted, uh, oil oil is used in a lot of different use cases.

正如您所指出的，石油的用途非常廣泛。

So it's used for things like gasoline, uh, diesel, jet fuel, but also petrochemicals.

它被用於汽油、機油、噴射燃料，還有石化產品。

So petrochemicals are a little bit distinct from, uh, from your typical oil product.

石化產品和一般的石油產品有點不太一樣。

they can be used for things like jeans, uh, they can be used for things like packaging for plant uh, packaging for, for food products, plastics, etc.

它們可以用於像牛仔褲、嗯，可以用於像是植物包裝，呃，食品包裝、塑膠等等。

And so if there when there's outages in the Middle East, the Middle East is an important provider of those feedstocks for petrochemical plants.

所以當發生中東地區的供應中斷時，中東是石化廠重要的原料供應來源。

Uh, it's also a very important provider of electricity, uh, for ultimately electricity for many petrochemical plants, especially in East Asia.

嗯，它也是非常重要的電力來源，呃，最終是許多石化廠的電力來源，尤其是在東亞。

So the economies of Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, uh, rely pretty significantly on LNG exports from, uh, from the Persian Gulf, especially from Qatar.

所以日本、臺灣、韓國的經濟，呃，相當依賴波斯灣，尤其是卡達的液化天然氣出口。

Um, and so Taiwan, for instance, about half of its electricity is from liquefied natural gas or LNG.

嗯，所以舉例來說，臺灣大約一半的電力來自液化天然氣，也就是 LNG。

And so if Taiwan, for instance, is forced to curtail electricity, uh, because of because of these LNG outages, that will have ripple impacts on, uh, on petrochemical production in these places.

所以如果臺灣因為這些液化天然氣供應中斷而被迫減少電力供應，這將會對這些地方的石化產品生產產生連鎖效應。

So, um, if, if petrochemical prices rise sharply, or if you see physical shortages, that will impact a wide array of products.

所以，嗯，如果石化產品價格急劇上漲，或者出現實質短缺，這將會影響到各種各樣的產品。

So, um, this oil, um, shock is feeding into all other kinds of petrochemicals as well is essentially what we're taking away from this.

所以，嗯，基本上我們從中得到的結論是，這次的石油衝擊正在影響到所有其他種類的石化產品。

And Janelle, we, we heard from Joe already about urea and ammonia.

Janelle，我們已經聽過 Joe 說關於尿素和氨了。

We're talking about fertilizer, these, of course, massively important input into, um, the agricultural supply chain, which affects what ends up in the supermarkets and at what prices.

我們在談論肥料，這些當然是對農業供應鏈極其重要的投入，這會影響到超市裡的東西以及價格。

Um, but, uh, you know, America produces a lot of fertilizer, but

嗯，但你知道，美國生產很多肥料，但是

So where in the U.S. is the shock hitting hardest?

那麼，美國的衝擊在哪個地區最嚴重？

So as Joe pointed out, the U.S. relies on imports for a significant bit of its fertilizer needs.

正如 Joe 指出的，美國的肥料需求有相當一部分依賴進口。

And unlike, say, China, that stockpiles fertilizer, the U.S. doesn't really do that.

而且不像中國那樣會囤積肥料，美國其實不會這樣做。

So basically, the fertilizer is bought and then used.

所以基本上，肥料買了就用了。

And the most obvious region in pain here in the U.S.

而美國這裡最明顯感到痛苦的地區。

is the Midwest, in the so-called Corn Belt.

就是中西部，也就是所謂的玉米帶。

So you have to think of states like Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, where the soil is really flat and they're just about to plant and they would need to be applying that fertilizer now.

所以你可以想像愛荷華、伊利諾州、印第安納、密蘇裡這些州，那裡的土壤非常平坦，正準備要播種，而且現在就得施肥了。

So corn happens to be a very nitrogen-intensive plant.

玉米恰好是需要大量氮肥的作物。

So these are obviously challenging times for rural America.

所以這對美國鄉村地區來說，無疑是個艱難的時期。

And it's becoming obvious that it's very hard to diversify in a hurry.

而且很明顯，想在短時間內多元化經營是很困難的。

So there was talk of bringing over fertilizer from Venezuela, but

所以有傳言說要從委內瑞拉運送肥料過來，但是

similar to its oil industry, there are problems there around kind of the maintenance of infrastructure.

這跟他們的石油產業一樣，在基礎設施維護方面存在問題。

And suffice to say, the conditions for quickly ramping up fertilizer production in Venezuela aren't ideal, whether politically and economically speaking.

總之，委內瑞拉要快速增加肥料產量的條件並不理想，無論是從政治還是經濟角度來看。

So farmers, to say the least, have a problem, especially in the Midwest.

所以，農民們，最起碼，有問題了，尤其是在中西部。

And Joe, um, a third of global urea, um, and a quarter of ammonia come from the Gulf.

所以 Joe，嗯，全球三分之一的尿素，嗯，還有四分之一的氨都來自海灣地區。

Um, some are calling this the fertilizer shock.

Because fertilizer is so vital for food, should we be focusing more on fertilizer prices than just pure oil prices right now?

因為肥料對糧食來說非常重要，我們現在是不是應該更關注肥料價格，而不是純粹的石油價格？

I think you raise a very important point.

我認為你提出了一個非常重要的觀點。

So this will have major impacts across not only, uh, not only oil and gas supply chains, but

所以這將對不只，呃，不只石油和天然氣供應鏈，

還有肥料市場都會產生重大影響。

And so this crisis also could not come at a worse time because this is in the planting season.

所以這場危機也來得不是時候，因為現在正是播種季節。

And so because because of that, because of the the cyclicality of planting, uh, if if farmers don't have access to these agricultural inputs, their crop yields could be reduced, um, over time.

所以因為這樣，因為播種的週期性，呃，如果農民無法取得這些農業投入品，他們的作物產量可能會隨時間減少，嗯。

And so this could have a very significant impact on food prices downstream.

所以這可能會對下游的糧食價格產生非常重大的影響。

所以這確實是個讓人擔憂的問題。

Uh, I think there's obviously there's major economic implications for this.

嗯，我認為這顯然會帶來重大的經濟影響。

So there are different studies suggesting that over 45 million people, uh, will increasingly face food scarcity.

所以有不同的研究顯示，超過四千五百萬人，嗯，將會越來越面臨糧食短缺。

Um, you know, Engels all holds that, uh, as, you know, as income rises, the share of spending on on food is reduced, but

嗯，你知道，恩格斯認為，嗯，隨著收入的增加，花在食物上的比例會減少，但是

that implies that, you know, people with less means have to spend more money, um, on agricultural goods.

這意味著，你知道，收入較少的人必須花更多的錢，嗯，在農產品上。

And so this is going to have a major impact on global poverty.

所以這將對全球貧困產生重大影響。

But I would also say that this will have a major geopolitical impact.

但我也要說，這將對地緣政治產生重大影響。

This this outage in the Middle East, uh, arithmetically, uh, will just mechanically will increase the leverage of Russia, Belarus, and

中東地區的這次停擺，嗯，算術上來說，嗯，只是機械地會增加俄羅斯、白俄羅斯和

Um, so China is not exporting um, China is not exporting ammonia currently.

嗯，所以中國目前沒有出口氨。

They're very concerned about domestic food security for now.

目前他們非常擔心國內的糧食安全。

Um, but Russia is the world's largest exporter of fertilizer.

但俄羅斯是世界上最大的肥料出口國。

Belarus, uh, Russia's very close partner, is a major player in potage markets.

白俄羅斯，嗯，俄羅斯的親密夥伴，是鉀肥市場的主要參與者。

And so if this crisis persists, you will see Russia, Belarus, and

是以，如果這場危機持續下去，你會看到俄羅斯、白俄羅斯，

potentially even China, um, having greater, uh, leverage in the agricultural space.

甚至可能還有中國，嗯，在農業領域擁有更大的影響力。

And I think that that could be a new and frankly worrisome development going forward.

我認為這將是一個令人擔憂的新發展。

The Gulf countries produce the fertilizer, but

they also import most of their food through the same Strait of Hormuz.

他們也透過同一個荷姆茲海峽進口大部分糧食。