Name: 葉門為何走向滅亡？阿曼為何蓬勃發展？🇸🇦🇴🇲 (Why Yemen is Dying & Oman is Booming)
Uploaded: 2026-03-20T17:12:31.000Z
Duration: 44 min 4 s

When you gaze out across a map of the world, there are few other countries you'll see on it that appear to be more twin like than the duo of Yemen and Oman.

當你放眼世界地圖時，你會發現很少有其他國家比葉門和阿曼這兩個國家更像雙胞胎了。

情態副詞

Both countries roughly evenly divide the southern tip of the Arabian Peninsula between them.

這兩個國家大致均等地瓜分了阿拉伯半島的南端。

程度副詞

They each have a very similar looking shape, and

他們各自擁有非常相似的外形，而且

they're even of very similar sizes, with Yemen being only slightly larger at around the same size as France, while Oman is around the same size as Italy.

他們的規模也非常相似，葉門稍大一些，大約和法國差不多，而阿曼則和義大利差不多。

Neither of them have any permanent rivers flowing in their territory, with both of them being restricted only to seasonal streams known in Arabic as wadis.

他們兩國境內都沒有永久性河流，都只剩下季節性的溪流，阿拉伯語稱為乾河床。

And yet, despite having no permanent rivers, they also both occupy the two rainiest locations that can be found on the Arabian Peninsula in their upper height island regions.

然而，儘管沒有永久性河流，他們也都佔據了阿拉伯半島上最濕潤的兩個地區，就在他們高處的島嶼區域。

Although the rainfall levels seen in Yemen are considerably higher than those found in Oman.

雖然葉門的降雨量比阿曼高出不少。

And in addition to their similar rainfall levels and similar mountainous and desert topography, they both contain similar amounts of geological resources as well.

除了相似的降雨量和相似的山地、沙漠地形外，他們也擁有相似數量的地質資源。

Both countries have a very comparable amount of proven oil and gas reserves, with Oman only having slightly more of each.

這兩個國家都擁有非常相當的已探明石油和天然氣儲量，阿曼在這兩方面都只略多一些。

And both countries occupy strategically important territory that positions themselves at the gates of extremely important global maritime trade routes.

而且這兩個國家都佔據著戰略上非常重要的地理位置，位於極其重要的全球海上貿易路線的入口處。

Oman controls the valuable territory directly on the southern edge of the Strait of Hormuz that funnels trade routes between the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean, while Yemen controls the similarly valuable territory on the eastern side of the Bab El Mandev Strait, which funnels trade routes between the Suez Canal and the Indian Ocean.

阿曼掌控著荷姆茲海峽南緣的寶貴領土，該海峽是波斯灣與印度洋之間的貿易路線咽喉，而葉門則掌控著曼德海峽東側同樣寶貴的領土，該海峽是蘇伊士運河與印度洋之間的貿易路線咽喉。

Which gives both Yemen and Oman a degree of immense geopolitical leverage, owing to the spaces on the board that they each occupy.

這使得葉門和阿曼都能在它們各自佔據的戰略位置上，擁有巨大的地緣政治影響力。

Both countries are inhabited by ethnic Arabs who share a similar language and culture, and

這兩個國家都居住著說著相似語言和文化的阿拉伯民族，而且

both countries overwhelmingly follow the Islamic faith.

這兩個國家都絕大多數信奉伊斯蘭教。

Sunni Islam is the dominant branch of the faith in each today.

遜尼派伊斯蘭教是當今兩國主要的教派。

In terms of raw numbers of followers, though, Yemen is home to a very significant Zaidi Shia minority, while Oman is home to a very significant Ibadi minority that has traditionally ruled the country, and

然而，從信徒的總數來看，葉門擁有非常重要的宰德派什葉派少數群體，而阿曼則擁有非常重要的伊巴迪派少數群體，這個群體傳統上一直統治著該國，而且

which is often considered to be a completely separate branch of the Islamic faith from the more well known Sunni and the Shia.

這個教派通常被認為是與較為人熟知的遜尼派和什葉派完全不同的伊斯蘭教分支。

There are a lot of similarities between Yemen and Oman, not least of which is their shared border that runs for 183 miles, or 294 kilometers.

葉門和阿曼之間有很多相似之處，其中最顯著的就是它們長達 183 英里，或 294 公里的共同邊界。

And yet, despite all of their similarities and neighboring locations on the map, there are perhaps no other two bordering countries in the entire world today who experience such radically different realities.

然而，儘管它們有這麼多相似之處，在地圖上也緊鄰相鄰，但如今世界上可能沒有其他兩個鄰國會經歷如此截然不同的現實。

Today in the 21st century, Yemen is these days most well known for being essentially the poster child of a failed state.

在 21 世紀的今天，葉門如今最為人所知的，就是它基本上是個失敗國家的典型代表。

The country has been locked in a devastating civil war for a decade now, ever since 2014 that still doesn't see any end in sight and which has resulted in the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people just last month.

這個國家已經陷入了長達十年的毀滅性內戰，從 2014 年至今仍看不到盡頭，光是上個月就造成了數十萬人死亡。

In March of 2024, the United nations still described Yemen as experiencing one of the worst humanitarian disasters in the world, with millions of people remaining forcibly displaced from their homes and with roughly 6 million people remaining on the brink of famine.

在 2024 年 3 月，聯合國仍形容葉門正經歷世界上最嚴重的人道災難之一，數百萬人仍被迫流離失所，約有 600 萬人處於飢荒邊緣。

In reality, Yemen ceased being a functioning country years ago and is more of a geographic expression these days than a real country.

事實上，葉門幾年前就已經不再是個正常運作的國家，如今與其說是一個真正的國家，不如說更像是一個地理上的概念。

Yemen's territory is still divided between multiple different factions and warlords supported by various different outside powers.

葉門的領土至今仍由多個不同的派系和軍閥瓜分，他們都受到不同外部勢力的支持。

And many of these factions in control of Yemen's territory are widely recognized internationally as terrorist organizations, such as the Houthis, who control most of the country's population centers and are considered a terrorist organization by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Malaysia and the United States.

而許多控制葉門領土的派系，國際上廣泛認為是恐怖組織，例如胡塞組織，他們控制了該國大部分人口中心，並被沙烏地阿拉伯、阿拉伯聯合大公國、馬來西亞和美國視為恐怖組織。

And there's also Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, or acap, who also control significant territory and is widely considered a terrorist organization by dozens of countries all around the world.

還有蓋達組織阿拉伯半島分支，或稱 AQAP，他們也控制著重要領土，並被全球數十個國家廣泛視為恐怖組織。

Within the past decade alone, Yemen's territory has been bombed by foreign countries from all around the world, and

僅在過去十年來，葉門的領土就遭到世界各國的轟炸，而且

it remains one of the most deeply dangerous and troubled countries on the planet.

它仍然是地球上最危險、最動盪的國家之一。

The Human Development Index, or hdi, is a composite index that combines scores in a country's per capita income, access to education, and

人類發展指數，或稱 HDI，是一個綜合指數，結合了國家人均所得、教育普及程度以及

access to healthcare to figure out a score between 0 at the lowest and 1 at the highest.

醫療照護普及程度的分數，計算出介於 0（最低）到 1（最高）之間的得分。

Yemen's 2023 HDI score clocked in at an abysmal 0.424, which is literally the 8th lowest score in the entire world, and

葉門 2023 年的 HDI 分數是慘不忍睹的 0.424，這幾乎是全球第八低的得分，

by far the lowest that can be anywhere in the world outside of Sub Saharan Africa.

而且是撒哈拉以南非洲以外地區最低的得分。

And most Sub Saharan African nations are actually doing better than Yemen is, according to the hdi.

根據 HDI，大多數撒哈拉以南非洲國家其實都比葉門表現好。

And on top of the abysmal HDI score, Yemen also ranks near the very bottom on the annual Corruption perceptions index for 2023 as well, having come in as the fifth most corrupt country in the entire world, somehow even beating out the corruption score for North Korea.

除了慘不忍睹的 HDI 分數之外，葉門在 2023 年的年度貪腐印象指數中也排名非常後面，是全球第五貪腐的國家，甚至比北韓的貪腐分數還高。

Yemen also has one of the lowest levels of GDP per capita in the world, one of the highest levels of poverty in the world, one of the lowest levels of literacy in the world, especially for Yemeni women, and

葉門的人均 GDP 水準也是全球最低之一，貧窮程度也是全球最高之一，識字率也是最低之一，尤其是葉門女性，

a whole host of other problems that are genuinely just far too many to even count.

還有其他一大堆問題，多到真的數不清。

Meanwhile, Oman, just right next door across the border, couldn't possibly be any more different.

同時，隔壁的阿曼，情況就完全不一樣了。

Oman hasn't seen a war fought in its territory for decades, since the 1970s.

阿曼自 1970 年代以來，領土就沒有發生過戰爭。

Oman's 2023 HDI score stands at an impressive 0.819, which is a massive difference between them and Yemen of 0.395 basis points.

阿曼 2023 年的 HDI 分數是令人印象深刻的 0.819，這讓他們和葉門之間有著 0.395 個基點的巨大差異。

To put that chasm of a difference in a further perspective, Oman's HDI score is roughly equivalent to Romania, while Yemen's is roughly equivalent to Mali.

為了更進一步說明這個巨大的差異，阿曼的 HDI 分數大約相當於羅馬尼亞，而葉門則大約相當於馬利。

So imagine if Mali and Romania shared a border between each other.

所以想像一下，如果馬利和羅馬尼亞互相接壤。

This difference is significantly larger than even the much discussed HDI difference between Haiti and the Dominican Republic, who share the same island of Hispaniola in the Caribbean.

這個差距甚至比海地和多明尼加共和國之間備受討論的 HDI 差距還要大，這兩個國家共享加勒比海的伊斯帕尼奧拉島。

And it's probably a larger gap than even the difference in HDI between North Korea and South Korea.

而且這個差距可能比北韓和南韓之間的 HDI 差距還要大。

In fact, the difference in HDI score across the border from Yemen to Oman is the second largest HDI disparity between any two borders in the entire world.

事實上，葉門與阿曼邊境的 HDI 分數差異，是全球所有邊境中第二大的 HDI 差距。

And it remains only just slightly behind the even larger difference in HDI score across Yemen's other border into Saudi Arabia.

而且這個差距僅僅略小於葉門與另一個鄰國沙烏地阿拉伯邊境的 HDI 分數差距。

There is literally nowhere else on the planet that has as stark of a difference in HDI score immediately across borders as between Yemen and its two neighbors.

在地球上，沒有任何地方像葉門與其兩個鄰國之間那樣，邊境兩側的 HDI 分數有如此鮮明的對比。

And it's not just the HDI score that Oman exceeds cells over.

而阿曼在 HDI 分數上領先的程度，不只是一點點。

Yemen with the nominal GDP per capita in Oman is currently a whopping 34 times higher than it is in Yemen, with Yemen's being the ninth lowest in the entire world and Oman's being roughly equivalent to Hungary.

阿曼目前的名目人均 GDP 是葉門的驚人 34 倍，葉門的人均 GDP 是全球第九低的，而阿曼大約相當於匈牙利。

Despite Yemen's population being significantly higher than Oman's, and

儘管葉門的人口顯著多於阿曼，而且

despite Yemen's control of the most agriculturally fertile land in the Arabian Peninsula and its roughly similar amount of oil and gas resources as Oman, Oman's economy is still more than five times larger than Yemen's island.

儘管葉門擁有阿拉伯半島上最肥沃的農業用地，以及與阿曼大致相當的石油和天然氣資源，阿曼的經濟規模仍然是葉門的五倍多。

Oman's score on the Corruption Perceptions Index is about on a par with Italy, which is much, much better than being the fifth lowest in the entire world.

阿曼在清廉印象指數上的分數與義大利差不多，這比位居全球第五低好太多了。

And the list of differences really just continues to go on from there.

而兩國的差異清單真的就這樣持續下去。

Oman is ultimately a stable, prosperous, wealthy and healthy nation that is notably ruled by one of the very few absolute monarchies remaining in the 21st century, while Yemen is basically an apocalyptic nightmare right next door across the border.

阿曼最終是一個穩定、繁榮、富裕且健康的國家，在21世紀仍然由少數君主專制國家之一統治，而葉門基本上是隔壁邊境的末日噩夢。

So how did this massive divergence between two otherwise similar looking countries develop into the way it is today?

那麼，這兩個看似相似的國家之間如此巨大的差異是如何發展成今天的樣貌的呢？

And it begins with the slight but notable differences between each of their geographies.

這始於兩國地理上微小但顯著的差異。

A very important component of both of these countries geographies are their mountains that separate their interiors from their coastlines.

兩國地理上一個非常重要的組成部分是分隔其內陸與海岸的山脈。

In the case of Yemen, their more isolated mountainous highlands enabled the Zahidi Shia Muslim movement to emerge as a distinct religious identity in a region otherwise dominated by the Sunni branch of Islam.

在葉門，他們較為孤立的山區高地，使得宰德派什葉派穆斯林運動得以在一個主要由遜尼派伊斯蘭教主導的地區，發展出獨特的宗教認同。

While in Oman, the presence of the country's northern mountain chain separates the interior region from a more narrow band of coastal plains immediately butting up against the Arabian Sea.

而在阿曼，該國北部山脈的存在，將內陸地區與緊鄰阿拉伯海的狹窄沿海平原分隔開來。

It was within this isolated coastal plain, geographically separated from the rest of the Arabian Peninsula and the Middle east, that a unique Islamic identity took hold that became known as Ibadism, a branch of Islam that is often regarded as being distinctly separate from the larger and more well known Sunni and Shia branches.

正是在這個地理上與阿拉伯半島及中東其他地區隔絕的孤立沿海平原，一種獨特的伊斯蘭認同紮根，並演變成了伊巴迪派，一個常被視為與更龐大且更知名的遜尼派和什葉派分支截然不同的伊斯蘭分支。

The Ibadis, secure in their isolated coastal plain, here developed around the port city of Muscat.

伊巴迪派在他們孤立的沿海平原上安然發展，圍繞著馬斯喀特這個港口城市。

And because of their easy access to global maritime trade routes out into the Indian Ocean, they became more commercially focused, outward looking and cosmopolitan in nature, which has influenced the Abadi sect's outlook on religious tolerance and peaceful coexistence with other beliefs for centuries now.

而且因為他們能輕鬆連接到印度洋的全球海上貿易路線，他們變得更商業化、更具國際視野和世界公民精神，這幾個世紀以來一直影響著伊巴迪派對宗教寬容以及與其他信仰和平共處的看法。

The interior of Oman, conversely, grew to become more inward looking, theocratic and fundamentalist in nature, not too dissimilar to the pattern seen in modern day Yemen and Saudi Arabia.

相對地，阿曼的內陸地區變得更加內向、神權和原教旨主義，這與現代葉門和沙烏地阿拉伯的模式頗為相似。

In Yemen, the southern coastal areas on the Gulf of Aden grew to also become more outward looking, trade oriented and secular, while the interior mountainous highlands home to the Zaidi Shia movement, grew to become more inward looking and theocratic.

在葉門，亞丁灣南部的沿海地區也變得更加外向、重視貿易和世俗化，而宰德派什葉派運動所在的內陸山區則變得更加內向和神權化。

Just as in Saudi Arabia, where the coasts were more cosmopolitan and the interior around modern day Riyadh was the birthplace of the modern day ultra conservative Wahhabi movement in Sunni Islam.

就像沙烏地阿拉伯一樣，沿海地區更加國際化，而現代利雅德周邊的內陸地區則是現代遜尼派伊斯蘭教極端保守的瓦哈比運動的發源地。

So Yemen and Oman both struggled for centuries with this difference in geography and outlook between their coastal populations and interior populations.

所以，葉門和阿曼數百年來都一直在應對沿海和內陸人口之間這種地理和觀念上的差異。

While Yemen's northwestern mountains receive many times more rainfall than anywhere else in Oman or in the Arabian Peninsula, as a result, these mountainous parts of northwestern Yemen are the most agriculturally productive in the Arabian Peninsula anywhere outside of Iraq.

雖然葉門西北部的山區降雨量遠高於阿曼其他地區或阿拉伯半島的任何地方，是以，葉門西北部的這些山區是阿拉伯半島農業產量最高的地方，僅次於伊拉克。

And so they've always been the most densely populated part of Arabia for thousands of years as well.

所以，幾千年來，這裡也一直是阿拉伯半島人口最稠密的地區。

Yemen's agricultural potential is many times higher than that of Oman's, and

葉門的農業潛力是阿曼的許多倍，

as a result, Yemen has always had the greater population between them.

是以，葉門的人口一直比阿曼多。

Even today, Yemen's 2024 population has nearly 35 million people, while Oman has fewer than 5 million, meaning that Yemen has roughly seven times the population of Oman.

即使到了今天，葉門2024年的人口仍將近3500萬，而阿曼則不到500萬，這意味著葉門的人口大約是阿曼的七倍。

But Yemen's much larger population base carries with it certain challenges that have been absent in Oman in the late 20th century, when large oil and gas reserves were discovered across both of them.

但葉門龐大的人口基數也帶來了一些挑戰，這些挑戰在20世紀後期阿曼並不存在，當時兩國都發現了大量的石油和天然氣儲量。

It turned out that each had pretty similar amounts, though Oman's were slightly larger.

結果發現兩國的儲量差不多，不過阿曼的稍微多一點。

Oman's greatest inherent advantage, however, was that its slightly larger amount of oil and gas reserves were always going to be able to go much further in the way of directly benefiting its much smaller population.

然而，阿曼最大的固有優勢在於，其稍微多一點的石油和天然氣儲量，能夠更直接地惠及人口少得多的阿曼。

It was Always going to be easier to have.

These similar amounts of oil and gas resources benefit the population of Oman.

這些相似數量的石油和天然氣資源造福了阿曼的人口。

That's just one seventh of the size of the population in Yemen.

And Yemen's population is only expected to continue growing further and further beyond Omans, because as the two countries development destinies diverged radically, so too did each of their fertility rates.

葉門人口預計將持續遠遠超過阿曼，因為兩國發展的命運發生了根本性分歧，生育率也隨之改變。

Even though Yemen's fertility rate has been continually declining since the late 1980s, it is still today, as of 2023, one of the highest seen anywhere in the world.

儘管葉門的生育率自1980年代後期以來一直在持續下降，但截至2023年，它仍然是世界上最高的生育率之一。

The average Yemeni woman continues to have 3.6 children during her lifetime.

平均而言，葉門婦女一生會生3.6個孩子。

Conversely, Oman's fertility rate has also continually declined since the early 1980s, but

相對地，阿曼的生育率也從1980年代初期開始持續下降，但

at a much faster pace than Yemen's, to the point where today the average Omani woman only has 2.5 children.

下降速度比葉門快得多，以至於如今平均每位阿曼婦女只生2.5個孩子。

Meaning that with its much larger population base and much higher fertility rate, Yemen's population is going to continue growing multiple times larger than Oman's will by the midpoint of the century.

這意味著，由於葉門龐大的人口基數和更高的生育率，到本世紀中葉，葉門的人口將會比阿曼大好幾倍。

In 2050, Yemen's population is currently projected to reach a staggering 60 million people, while Oman's isn't projected to grow much further than 6 million people.

預計到2050年，葉門人口將達到驚人的6000萬，而阿曼人口預計不會超過600萬。

Meaning that by then the Yemeni population will be about 10 times larger than Oman's will be.

這意味著屆時葉門人口將是阿曼的10倍左右。

Which simply means that Yemen's limited resources will continue being spread out more thinly than Oman's will have to be.

這就意味著葉門有限的資源將會比阿曼的資源更加分散。

In addition to geographic and demographic differences between the two, there are also very notable historical differences between the two that explain a lot of the current divergence between them as well.

除了兩國在地理和人口結構上的差異外，兩國之間還有非常顯著的歷史差異，這也解釋了它們之間目前許多分歧的原因。

Both countries were conquered or colonized by non Arab powers in the 16th century.

兩國在16世紀都被非阿拉伯勢力征服或殖民。

The Ottoman Turks took over most of northern Yemen in 1519 and would control it for the next 400 years until the end of World War I.

鄂圖曼土耳其人於1519年佔領了葉門北部的大部分地區，並統治了接下來的400年，直到第一次世界大戰結束。

While the Portuguese took over most of modern day Oman in 1507, just a few years before the Ottomans took over northern Yemen.

而葡萄牙人在1507年佔領了現代阿曼的大部分地區，比鄂圖曼人佔領葉門北部早了幾年。

But the people around Muscat in modern day Oman managed to push out their foreign occupiers much, much earlier than the Yemenis did.

不過，現代阿曼的馬斯喀特周邊居民，比葉門人早得多，成功趕走了外來佔領者。

The Portuguese only stayed around in Oman for about a century and a half until 1650, when local Omani tribes from the interior region managed to push them out and take over Muscat, after which they declared the new Sultanate of Oman.

葡萄牙人只在阿曼待了大約一個半世紀，直到1650年，來自內陸地區的當地阿曼部落成功將他們趕走並接管馬斯喀特，隨後他們宣佈成立新的阿曼蘇丹國。

This makes modern Oman the oldest continuously independent state in the Arab world today, having remained largely independent ever since then, right up until the modern day.

這使得現代阿曼成為阿拉伯世界中歷史最悠久、至今仍持續獨立的國家，自那時以來，它基本上一直保持獨立，直到現代。

From there, the Omanis utilized their centuries of previous ship and trade experience and everything they learned from the Portuguese to then pursue the Portuguese empire across the rest of the Indian Ocean.

從那裡開始，阿曼人利用他們數百年來從葡萄牙人那裡學到的航海和貿易經驗，進而在印度洋其他地區追擊葡萄牙帝國。

And in the process, the Omanis created a vast maritime empire of their own that at times dominated much of the Arabian Sea and controlled overseas territories in modern day Iran, Pakistan, India, and

在這個過程中，阿曼人建立了自己龐大的海上帝國，一度主宰了阿拉伯海的大部分地區，並控制了現代伊朗、巴基斯坦、印度和

all across eastern Africa, including the strategically important trade hub of Zanzibar.

遍及東非的海外領土，包括戰略上重要的貿易中心桑吉巴。

The sprawling Omani empire was eventually partitioned in 1856 between the Northern holdings based around modern day Oman, and

龐大的阿曼帝國最終於1856年被瓜分，北部領地以現代阿曼為中心，

the southern holdings based around Zanzibar in Africa.

南部領地則以非洲的桑吉巴為中心。

And so the northern half became known as the Sultanate of Muscat in Oman.

是以，北部半區被稱為馬斯喀特和阿曼蘇丹國。

Essentially ruled by a more secular sultan in the coastal plain around Muscat and a more theocratic imam in the interior region, Muscat in Oman eventually became a de facto British protectorate in 1872, but

基本上由馬斯喀特沿海平原的世俗蘇丹和內陸地區的神權伊瑪目統治，馬斯喀特和阿曼最終在1872年成為事實上的英國保護國，但