Name: 以色列對伊朗的情報滲透到底有多深？| DW 新聞 (How deep Israel's intelligence penetration inside Iran really is | DW News)
Uploaded: 2026-03-19T23:06:33.000Z
Duration: 14 min 49 s
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We begin the day with the war against Iran moving deeper into Lebanon.

我們今天開始，就來談談這場對伊朗的戰爭，它正深入黎巴嫩。

On Wednesday, Israeli warplanes launched some of the most intense airstrikes in this war.

週三，以色列戰機發動了這場戰爭中最猛烈的空襲。

No longer just the southern suburbs of Beirut.

The core of the Lebanese capital is now also taking hits.

黎巴嫩首都的核心區域也正在遭受攻擊。

Israel says it continues to target sites used by the Iranian backed militant group Hezbollah.

以色列表示，他們持續針對伊朗支持的武裝組織真主黨使用的據點進行打擊。

Lebanese authorities say at least 12 people were killed Wednesday when apartment buildings in several residential neighborhoods were struck.

黎巴嫩當局表示，週三至少有12人死亡，當時幾處住宅區的公寓大樓遭到襲擊。

On Wednesday morning, Israel brought the war to the heart of Beirut.

週三早上，以色列將戰火引向了貝魯特市中心。

It struck three densely populated neighborhoods in the Lebanese capital.

他們襲擊了黎巴嫩首都三個人口稠密的區域。

In the Bashura area, one building was completely flattened, shocking ordinary people who lived just meters away.

在Bashura地區，一棟建築被夷為平地，讓住在幾公尺外的普通民眾感到震驚。

Israel called it a facility used by Hezbollah, the Shiite Muslim militant group backed by Iran.

以色列稱這是伊朗支持的什葉派穆斯林武裝組織真主黨使用的據點。

Not fight and displace innocent people, elderly people.

而不是作戰並迫使無辜的民眾、老年人流離失所。

還有遜尼派、德魯茲人、庫德人。

Israelis are just focused on causing pain.

Two other neighborhoods were also struck, including one close to government headquarters and several embassies.

另外兩個社區也遭到襲擊，包括一個靠近政府總部和幾家大使館的社區。

Residents said they received no warning and the missiles caught them unawares when they were still in bed.

居民說他們沒有收到任何警告，導彈擊中他們時，他們還在床上。

We were sleeping when we heard the bomb fall on us.

我們睡覺的時候，聽到炸彈掉下來。

We came out and found the street like this.

我們出來，發現街道變成這樣。

We've been out on the street since 8:30am with nothing but the clothes on our backs.

我們從早上八點半就待在街上，身上只有穿的衣服。

Hezbollah's Al Mana TV station said the director of its political programs and his wife were killed in one of the strikes.

真主黨的Al Mana TV臺表示，其政治節目總監和他的妻子在其中一次襲擊中喪生。

Israel's military confirmed striking Beirut and several locations in southern Lebanon.

以色列軍方證實襲擊了貝魯特和黎巴嫩南部幾個地點。

In a statement, the Israel Defense Forces said the strikes targeted Hezbollah facilities in response to dozens of rockets that were launched towards Israeli territory.

以色列國防軍發表聲明表示，這次襲擊是為了回應發射至以色列領土的數十枚火箭，目標鎖定真主黨的設施。

It said warnings had been issued for some locations.

聲明中提到，部分地點已事先發布警告。

Lebanese authorities say Israeli strikes have now killed more than 900 people since March 2 and displaced over a million more.

黎巴嫩當局表示，自3月2日以來，以色列的襲擊已造成超過900人死亡，並導致超過百萬人流離失所。

Joining me now is Raz Zemt, director of the Iran and the Shiite Axis Program at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv.

現在加入我們的是來自特拉維夫國家安全研究所伊朗與什葉派軸心計畫的主任 Raz Zemt。

He's also co editor of the journal strategic assessment.

他也是戰略評估期刊的共同編輯。

Zemt 先生，很高興您能加入我們。

We're now seeing Israeli strikes hitting central Beirut, not just Hezbollah areas.

我們現在看到以色列的襲擊不僅針對真主黨的區域，也打擊了貝魯特市中心。

What does it tell you about Israel's strategy here?

這對您來說，說明瞭以色列在這裡的策略是什麼？

So actually, with the exception of several bridges which were targeted in southern Lebanon, which could be described as state assets, the majority of the targets targeted by Israel since the beginning of the war against Hezbollah were Hezbollah related.

所以其實，除了在黎巴嫩南部有幾座橋樑被鎖定，可以說是國家資產，但自從戰爭開始以來，以色列針對真主黨的大部分目標，都是與真主黨有關的。

And so again, with the exception of some hitting Iranian personnel in Beirut or Palestinian officials in Beirut, but

所以再次強調，除了在貝魯特有些擊中伊朗人員或巴勒斯坦官員，但

the majority of the targets were Hezbollah.

So I would say that while there is, there are some voices in Israel encouraging to put more pressure on.

所以我會說，雖然以色列國內有些聲音鼓勵要對黎巴嫩政府施加更多壓力。

On the Lebanese government to disarm Hezbollah, but

at least for now, Israel has mostly targeted the Hezbollah targets in Beirut, in the Berkovali, certainly in southern Lebanon, but

至少目前為止，以色列主要鎖定的是在貝魯特、伯科瓦利，當然還有黎巴嫩南部的真主黨目標，但

And you don't think, though, that these strikes, these attacks, could be perceived as an attempt to pressure the Lebanese state?

但您不認為，這些襲擊、這些攻擊，可能會被解讀為試圖向黎巴嫩政府施壓嗎？

I think that there is a realization in Israel that generally speaking, Israel and the Lebanese government, the current Lebanese government, share the same interest to disarm Hezbollah.

我認為以色列有一種體認，普遍來說，以色列和黎巴嫩政府，目前的黎巴嫩政府，在解除真主黨武裝這件事上，利益是一致的。

Having said that, we should not forget that Israel has tried to convince the Lebanese government and the Lebanese army since the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in December 2024 to move forward to break the infrastructures and facilities set up by Hezbollah not just in South Lebanon, but

話雖如此，我們不應該忘記，自從2024年12月以色列與真主黨停火以來，以色列一直試圖說服黎巴嫩政府和黎巴嫩軍隊，要進一步拆除真主黨不僅在黎巴嫩南部，

also in Beirut and other areas in Lebanon.

還有在貝魯特以及黎巴嫩其他地區設立的基礎設施和據點。

And despite the efforts made by the Lebanese army to do something about that, it was certainly insufficient.

儘管黎巴嫩軍隊為此做了一些努力，但顯然是不夠的。

And so, as I said, there are those in Israel who believe that more pressure is required.

所以，正如我所說，以色列有些人認為需要更大的壓力。

Are you convinced that Hezbollah is being degraded at the moment?

您認為真主黨目前正在被削弱嗎？

I think the main question is whether at the end of this war we will be able to create better strategic circumstances which would allow to put an end to this condition where Hezbollah actually serves as a state within the state.

我認為主要問題是，在這場戰爭結束時，我們是否能夠創造更好的戰略環境，讓這種真主黨實際上成為國中之國的狀況得以終結。

As I said, Israel shares the view that the monopoly over the weapons in Lebanon should be under the Lebanese government's direction.

正如我所說，以色列也認為，黎巴嫩的武器壟斷權應該由黎巴嫩政府掌控。

And therefore, even if Hezbollah is degraded, if we don't move forward together with the Lebanese government to disarm Hezbollah, it's only a matter of time until Israel is going to be forced into further action.

所以，即使真主黨被削弱了，如果我們不跟黎巴嫩政府一起解除真主黨的武裝，以色列遲早還是會被迫採取進一步行動。

Again, I want to talk a little bit now about Iran.

Here's the Defense Minister, Israel Katz, speaking today.

這是國防部長葛茲（Israel Katz）今天說的。

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and I have authorized the IDF to neutralize any senior Iranian official who has been located, both intelligence wise and operationally, without the need for additional approval.

總理班傑明·納坦雅胡和我已經授權以色列國防軍，無需額外準許，即可制裁任何被鎖定的伊朗高官，無論是情報上還是行動上。

We'll continue to target and hunt them all.

Mr. Zemp, Israel says that it has killed another top Iranian official today.

辛普先生，以色列說今天又擊斃了一名伊朗高級官員。

That brings the total to three key security officials in Iran killed this week.

這週伊朗被擊斃的關鍵安全官員總共有三位。

What does this tell you about how deep Israel's intelligence penetration inside Iran really is?

這告訴了我們什麼，關於以色列滲透伊朗情報網的深度到底有多深？

You know, we didn't have to see the recent decapitations of Lari Jani and the commander of the Basij and the Iranian Minister of Intelligence to understand that Israel enjoys a very deep intelligence penetration.

你知道，我們不需要等到最近拉里·賈尼（Lari Jani）、巴希基（Basij）指揮官和伊朗情報部長被斬首，才能明白以色列在伊朗享有非常深入的情報滲透。

We saw that during the first few hours of the war, including the killing of Khamenei.

我們看到在戰爭最初的幾個小時裡，包括殺死了哈米尼（Khamenei）。

We saw that during the few first hours of the 12 day war in June.

我們在六月那場為期十二天的戰爭最初的幾個小時裡就看到了。

We actually saw that before, for example, during the Israeli attack, an assassination of the Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in a compound being used by the Revolutionary Guards in Tehran.

事實上，我們之前就見識過了，例如，在以色列的攻擊中，暗殺了哈瑪斯（Hamas）領導人伊斯梅爾·哈尼亞（Ismail Haniyeh），當時他身處伊朗革命衛隊在德黑蘭使用的某處營區。

I think this is the main issue, is that it's a clear indication that Israel and the United States since the beginning of the war might not pursue the objective of toppling the Iranian regime.

我認為這才是主要問題，這清楚地表明，自戰爭開始以來，以色列和美國可能不會追求推翻伊朗政權的目標。

Because I think everyone realized that it's going to be almost impossible to do that through aerial strikes.

因為我認為大家都意識到，透過空襲要做到這一點幾乎是不可能的。

But I think it's very clear that Israel wants to undermine and to weaken Iran's political and security establishment and certainly its security forces and repressive capabilities.

但我認為非常清楚的是，以色列想要破壞並削弱伊朗的政治和安全機構，當然還有其安全部隊和鎮壓能力。

Well, if Israel can keep reaching into the upper ranks of Iran's leadership, as we've been seeing, what does that do to the war, though?

嗯，如果以色列能夠像我們一直看到的，不斷滲透到伊朗領導層的頂端，這又會對戰爭產生什麼影響呢？

Is it going to shorten the war or is it going to guarantee that we see a longer, more dangerous conflict?

這會縮短戰爭，還是會保證我們會看到一場更長、更危險的衝突？

It seems to me that the current obstacle towards the ending the war seems to be the crisis in Hormuz Straits rather than the targets.

在我來看，目前阻礙戰爭結束的障礙似乎是荷姆茲海峽的危機，而不是目標本身。

We will always have more and more targets, as Israeli officials made it very clear.

以色列官員已經說得很清楚，我們會有越來越多的目標。

We are still talking about another month or several weeks of campaign in Iran.

我們還在談論伊朗境內為期一個月或數週的行動。

That's more than enough to continue the Israeli efforts to strike irgc, Basij, Iranian officials, some infrastructures perhaps.

這足以讓以色列繼續打擊伊斯蘭革命衛隊、巴斯基部隊、伊朗官員，或許還有一些基礎設施。

And so the end of the war, which by the way will be decided not by Israel, by President Trump, in my view, has to do more with what we will see over the energy sector and the Iranian attempts to block the Hormuz Strait, rather than the question of how far we continue the Israeli efforts when it comes to assets inside Iran.

所以戰爭的結束，在我看來，將不是由以色列或川普總統決定，而是取決於我們在能源領域的發展，以及伊朗試圖封鎖荷姆茲海峽的行動，而不是以色列在伊朗境內資產的行動能持續多久。

嗯，這正是我要問您的，Zemp 先生。

Zemp, if US President Trump were to say this evening that the war is over, mission accomplished, what would that mean for Israel and its goals?

如果川普總統今晚說戰爭結束了，任務完成，這對以色列及其目標意味著什麼？

That would leave Israel in the lurch A little bit wouldn't will mean that it's going to be more difficult to make sure that one, the Iranian regime is weakened even further.

這會讓以色列有點措手不及，這意味著要確保伊朗政權進一步被削弱會更加困難。

For example, it's going to be more difficult to make sure that in case of a resumed protest movement in Iran this time it might be more successful than before.

例如，要確保萬一伊朗出現恢復的抗議運動，這次可能會比以前更成功，這也會更加困難。

And it also has to do with the Israeli objective of degrading Iran's both nuclear and ballistic missiles capacities.

這也關係到以色列削弱伊朗核武和彈道飛彈能力的目標。

In order to make sure that we don't only hit those targets, but

為了確保我們不僅僅是打擊這些目標，而是

also make sure that this time, unlike the 12 Day War in June, Iran will not be able to recover and to reconstitute its ballistic missiles capacities as they did after this war.

並且確保這次伊朗無法像六月十二日那場戰爭一樣，在戰後恢復並重組其彈道飛彈能力。

There are some warnings even from US Officials about potential Iranian linked attacks far beyond the Middle East.

甚至有美國官員警告，伊朗可能會在遠超中東地區發動攻擊。

How real is the risk that this conflict spills into Europe or even into the United States?

這個衝突擴散到歐洲甚至美國的風險有多大？

I think that the main threat when it comes to Europe and the United States seems to be the potential implementation or using by Iran of terrorist cells and infrastructures.

我認為，對歐洲和美國來說，主要的威脅似乎是伊朗可能啟用或利用恐怖組織和基礎設施。

In Europe we've seen that already and perhaps in the United States.

在歐洲我們已經見識過了，或許在美國也是。

I don't see any scenario in which Iran tries to launch missiles at Europe.

我認為沒有任何情況下，伊朗會試圖向歐洲發射飛彈。

We know that the number of Iranian missiles being launched not just against Israel, but

我們知道，伊朗發射的飛彈數量，不只針對以色列，

forces in the region seems to be very much declined.

在該地區的軍隊數量似乎已大幅減少。

I think that the use of terrorist infrastructures and, and, and

我認為使用恐怖基礎設施，以及，以及，以及