Name: 美伊開戰後的經濟真相：停滯性通膨真的要來了嗎？（Will U.S. Strikes On Iran Trigger Stagflation Risk?）
Uploaded: 2026-03-17T15:10:57.000Z
Duration: 4 min 41 s

Today will be yet again our most intense day of strikes inside Iran.

今天將會是我們在伊朗又一次最激烈的罷工日。

情態助動詞 B1

This was an excursion that a lot of people wouldn't have done.

這次的行程，很多人可能都不會去。

第二類條件句型

I knew oil prices would go up if I did this, and

我知道我這麼做，油價一定會漲，而且

they've gone up probably less than I thought they'd go up.

The war in Iran has been a kind of classic oil shock.

伊朗的戰爭有點像是經典的石油衝擊。

We had this big, surprising US Attack that all of a sudden sent up the price of oil dramatically.

我們經歷了美國一次突如其來的猛烈攻擊，油價瞬間飆漲。

Everybody was worried all of a sudden there wouldn't be any more oil.

所有人突然都很擔心會沒有石油了。

Since then, you've had individual attacks by the Iranians and by the US on infrastructure in the region that has hurt the ability to produce energy.

從那之後，伊朗和美國各自對該區域的基礎設施發動了攻擊，影響了能源生產能力。

In the long run, that raises the price level of just about everything in the economy.

長遠來看，這會讓經濟中幾乎所有東西的價格都上漲。

I cover the intersection of politics, policy and economics in the financial markets.

我負責報導金融市場中政治、政策和經濟的交集。

So far, we haven't really seen official numbers that show us clearly what the Iran strikes are doing to the economy.

到目前為止，我們還沒有看到官方數據清楚顯示伊朗的攻擊對經濟有何影響。

The Atlanta Fed's GDP now tracker fell pretty dramatically, and that worried a lot of people.

亞特蘭大聯準會的 GDP Now 追蹤器大幅下跌，這讓許多人感到擔憂。

That's a reaction to some other bad news in the economy, including a bad jobs report that showed about 90,000 jobs were lost in the US in February.

這是對一些經濟壞消息的反應，包括一份糟糕的就業報告，顯示美國二月損失了約 9 萬個工作。

In all of last year, the US economy only created about 110,000 jobs.

去年全年，美國經濟只創造了約 11 萬個工作。

And if you start having big shocks like an oil sh added on top of that, you could see employers starting to get worried about whether or not they can afford all of these employees, and

如果再加上像石油衝擊這樣的大衝擊，你可能會看到僱主開始擔心他們是否還能負擔所有員工，

they might start considering things like layoffs.

他們可能會開始考慮裁員等事情。

An oil shock is a tough one because it manages to hit you on both sides.

石油衝擊是很棘手的，因為它會從兩方面打擊你。

If you're a trucker, you got to pay more for gas, more for diesel.

如果你是開卡車的，你得付更多汽油費，更多機油費。

Diesel price in particular has gone up pretty substantially.

尤其是機油價格，已經大幅上漲了。

So this oil shock is going to remind people a lot of the 1970s when we had the word stagflation running around a lot.

所以這次的石油衝擊會讓大家想起 1970 年代，那時候「停滯性通膨」這個詞很常聽到。

That's the thing the US economy hasn't had really in 50 years.

這是美國經濟 50 年來真的沒遇過的狀況。

It's when growth is slow and inflation is high.

就是經濟成長緩慢，但通貨膨脹很高。

So inflation has been high for a while, but growth has been pretty good.

所以通貨膨脹已經高了一陣子，但經濟成長其實還不錯。

This economy is moving the fastest we've ever seen and with, say, 4% growth this year, which is about what I expect that we're going to see, then there'll be so much activity that everybody's going to be able to find a job that wants one.

這個經濟體正以我們前所未見的速度前進，假設今年有 4% 的經濟成長，這大概是我預期的，屆時會有非常多的活動，每個人都能找到一份他們想要的工作。

So if you think about kind of what normal growth and inflation would be, you might want sort of 2% growth.

所以如果你想想一般的經濟成長和通貨膨脹會是什麼樣子，你可能會想要大概 2% 的成長。

That's what the Federal Reserve Targets on the inflation side, if you go above 2% inflation and you go below 2% in growth, that starts to sound like a stagflation.

這就是聯準會設定的通膨目標，如果通膨超過 2%，經濟成長卻低於 2%，聽起來就有點像停滯性通膨。

But there's no real official definition of the term.

但這個詞其實沒有一個正式的定義。

Bond markets reacted pretty quickly to the war in Iran by saying they're worried about inflation coming back.

債券市場對伊朗戰爭的反應相當快，表示他們擔心通膨會捲土重來。

We saw the 10 year treasury yield start to tick up a little bit.

我們看到十年期公債殖利率開始小幅上揚。

And some measures that investors look at, like Breakevens suggested that in the near term investors are really worried about inflation coming back.

一些投資人關注的指標，像是損益兩平點，顯示短期內投資人確實擔心通膨會再度出現。

So far, it's in the near term and the long term picture looks pretty good.

到目前為止，這都是短期現象，長期來看前景依然不錯。

But if the war continues to add damage to the US and global economies, that could change.

但如果戰爭持續對美國和全球經濟造成損害，情況可能會改變。

There is not a lot the US Government or other governments can do to try to get oil flowing again and to make people comfortable that oil is going to continue to flow.

美國政府或其他政府能做的其實不多，來試圖讓石油恢復流通，並讓大家對石油持續供應感到安心。

As of right now, it's very hard for ships to get through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about 20% of all the oil in the world.

就目前而言，船隻要通過荷姆茲海峽非常困難，那裡大約有全球 20% 的石油會經過。

If captains of oil tankers feel like it's safe to transit the Strait of Hormuz and go by Iran, they're just not going to.

如果油輪船長覺得通過荷姆茲海峽、經過伊朗是安全的，他們就不會這麼做。

And there's not a lot the policymakers can do about that.

The US Navy and its partners will escort tankers through the strait if needed.

美國海軍及其盟友必要時會護送油輪通過海峽。

The reality is that nobody who's trading energy right now really knows what's going to happen.

現實是，目前交易能源的任何人，都不知道接下來會發生什麼。

And that means there's a strong possibility that oil prices could go up substantially.

這意味著油價很有可能大幅上漲。

The US Economy can sustain higher oil prices for a little while, but

美國經濟可以承受較高的油價一段時間，但

if they stay up for a few months, let's say, then that will start to show up in inflation numbers and you'll see them grow by, you know, a few tenths of a percent.

如果油價維持幾個月，比方說，那就會開始反映在通膨數字上，你會看到它們成長零點幾趴。

The Fed is going to be in a really tough spot if inflation picks back up, because what they have to do is balance the jobs market, which is weakening with the inflation picture, which seems like it could be getting worse.

如果通膨再次升溫，聯準會將處於一個非常艱難的境地，因為他們必須平衡正在走弱的就業市場和似乎可能惡化的通膨狀況。

A lot of economists think that if we can get through this oil shock without prices staying well above $100 a barrel, we probably won't have stagflation, at least for right now.

許多經濟學家認為，如果我們能安然度過這次石油衝擊，油價不會持續遠高於每桶 100 美元，我們可能就不會有停滯性通膨，至少目前是這樣。

There's reason to hope that we might avoid that outcome.

我們有理由希望我們可以避免這種情況發生。