Name: 誰從美伊戰爭中獲利？ (Who's Profiting From US-Iran War?)
Uploaded: 2026-03-15T18:04:53.000Z
Duration: 12 min 1 s

現在進行式

Who is profiting from the US Iran war, any war is a massive transfer of wealth.

誰從美國伊朗戰爭中獲利？任何戰爭都是大規模的財富轉移。

未來簡單式

So by the end of this war, somebody is going to be insanely rich and somebody is going to get insanely poor.

所以這場戰爭結束後，會有人變得超級有錢，也會有人變得超級窮。

動名詞

So let's take a look at who is massively making trillions of dollars out of this war.

讓我們來看看誰在這場戰爭中大賺了數兆美元。

The first winner of this war is Iran itself.

這場戰爭的第一個贏家是伊朗本身。

And this might seem very controversial because Iran's economy has been suffering over the last couple of decades.

這聽起來可能很有爭議，因為伊朗的經濟在過去幾十年來一直很艱難。

The United States has imposed sanctions on Iran a few decades ago, and

美國在幾十年前就對伊朗實施了制裁，

since then, their economy has been going down, their currencies has almost collapsed.

從那時起，他們的經濟就一直下滑，他們的貨幣幾乎崩潰了。

And if Iran was left the way it is, that economy would probably be in a very dire situation.

如果伊朗就這樣下去，經濟可能會陷入非常嚴峻的困境。

But here is one thing you have to understand about Iran.

Almost a third of the entire government's budget comes directly from selling oil.

將近三分之一的政府總預算直接來自於賣石油。

So if you are making money primarily by selling oil, and

所以如果你主要的收入來源是賣石油，

now this war has led to an increase in the price of oil, the question comes back to you.

現在這場戰爭又導致油價上漲，那問題又回到你身上了。

What do you think is now happening to the budget of the Iranian government?

你覺得伊朗政府的預算現在會怎麼樣？

It at least has doubled because oil prices have increased by at least 100%.

至少翻倍了，因為油價上漲了至少百分之百。

And according to Iran, we are going to see $200 per barrel of oil prices.

而且根據伊朗的說法，我們將看到每桶石油價格達到200美元。

The that means that probably in a couple of months from now, if this war persists, the Iranian government will quadruple its revenue.

這意味著，如果這場戰爭持續下去，大概幾個月後，伊朗政府的收入將會翻四倍。

所以這對他們來說是一場完美的戰爭。

On one side, they are fighting and they are fighting for their country.

一方面，他們在戰鬥，而且是為了他們的國家在戰鬥。

On the other side, they will be making trillions of dollars by selling their oil.

另一方面，他們賣石油會賺進數兆美元。

Now, secondly, because Iran has closed its trade of Hormuz and Iran only lets its oil to pass that strait to China, for example, that means that the demand for the Iran oil is going to increase.

現在，第二點，因為伊朗關閉了荷姆茲海峽的貿易，而且伊朗只讓他們的石油通過那個海峽，例如賣給中國，這意味著伊朗石油的需求將會增加。

So many nations that used to buy, for example, oil from Saudi Arabia and the UAE or Qatar will now be buying actually from Iran, which means that it is going to boost their energy and revenue sources.

所以很多原本從沙烏地阿拉伯、阿拉伯聯合大公國或卡達購買石油的國家，現在實際上會從伊朗購買，這意味著他們的能源和收入來源將會增加。

Iran could also put a toll on the Strait of Hormuz, that if you want your ships to successfully pass through the Strait of Hormuz, you can pay us a very small fee that is going to fall, finance the war, and

伊朗也可以對荷姆茲海峽徵收通行費，如果你們的船隻想順利通過荷姆茲海峽，可以付我們一筆非常小的費用，這筆費用將會用來資助這場戰爭，

So Iran by far is going to be the biggest winner of this war.

所以到目前為止，伊朗將會是這場戰爭最大的贏家。

Now, besides Iran, it is going to be Russia.

現在，除了伊朗之外，再來就是俄羅斯。

Now, Russia is one of the largest oil producers in the world, and

俄羅斯是世界上最大的石油生產國之一，

a quarter of the government's budget comes directly from selling oil to the rest of the world.

政府預算的四分之一直接來自於賣石油給全世界。

But Russian oil has been sold under market price because it has been sold in the Black market.

但是俄羅斯的石油一直以低於市價的價格出售，因為它們是在黑市上賣的。

So since the United States has sanctions, Russian oil.

所以因為美國實施制裁，俄羅斯的石油。

但現在全世界都需要俄羅斯的石油。

That is a close ally of the United States and was relying for Middle Eastern Oil for 95% of their energy.

日本是美國的親密盟友，百分之九十五的能源都依賴中東的石油。

The US Is at full capacity, so it cannot possibly supply Japan with oil.

美國的產能已經全開，所以不可能供應日本石油。

That is why the United States is looking at the possibility of lifting sanctions from Russia so that the rest of the world can buy oil from Russia, replacing the Middle Eastern oil.

這就是為什麼美國正在考慮解除對俄羅斯的制裁，讓世界其他國家可以向俄羅斯購買石油，取代中東的石油。

So countries such as South Korea, European countries will be probably buying a lot of oil from Russia.

所以像南韓、歐洲國家，很可能會從俄羅斯買很多石油。

And rising oil prices will only benefit them.

That's why Russia wants this war to prolong for as long as possible.

這就是為什麼俄羅斯希望這場戰爭盡可能延長。

The longer this war continues, the more oil prices rise, the more the Russian government is going to profit from this war.

這場戰爭打得越久，油價漲得越高，俄羅斯政府從這場戰爭中賺到的錢就越多。

The third largest beneficiary or the winner or the country that will make a lot of money from this war is obviously the United States itself.

第三個最大的受益者，或者說贏家，也就是從這場戰爭中大賺一筆的國家，顯然就是美國自己。

The United States right now is the world's largest oil producer in the world.

美國現在是世界上最大的石油生產國。

So the more oil prices rise, the more the US Refineries, the more the US Oil companies will make a lot of money.

所以油價漲得越高，美國的煉油廠、美國的石油公司賺的錢就越多。

So hundreds of billions of dollars will be flowing to the United States.

這樣一來，數千億美元就會流入美國。

European Union, for example, buys about 15% of its oil from Middle East.

舉例來說，歐盟大約有15%的石油是從中東購買的。

But now that oil cannot possibly go through the Strait of Hormuz, which means that European countries will be forced to buy even more oil from the United States.

但現在這些石油不可能通過荷姆茲海峽，這意味著歐洲國家將被迫從美國購買更多石油。

And now since prices have doubled, it means that they will make a lot more money.

而且現在價格翻倍了，這意味著他們會賺到更多錢。

It is also going to be a war of attrition.

That means that you need a lot of ammunition.

So for example, the United States has already wasted a lot of missiles on this war.

所以舉例來說，美國在這場戰爭中已經浪費了好多飛彈。

So you have to start buying more missiles.

You have to start buying more Himars missiles, more Thaad missiles.

你得開始買更多海馬斯飛彈，更多終端高空防禦飛彈。

And a single missile costs like 10 or 20 million dollars.

而單枚飛彈就要價一千萬或兩千萬美金。

And you need not just a few of them, you need thousands of them.

而且你需要的不是幾枚，你需要的是成千上萬枚。

The longer the war continues, the longer, the more the military industrial complex is going to make money.

戰爭拖越久，軍工複合體賺的錢就越多。

So they will be making like hundreds of billions of dollars.

Middle Eastern countries are suffering the most.

So take the United Arab Emirates, that has deep pockets now.

所以像是阿拉伯聯合大公國，現在口袋很深。

They're being attacked by very cheap drones all across the country and they need to defend themselves.

他們全國各地都受到非常便宜的無人機攻擊，需要防禦。

What kind of military equipments they are going to buy?

Of course they will be buying US Military equipments.

Because they have built their entire military infrastructure on American military, which is why hundreds of billions, if not trillions of dollars will be flowing to the US industrial complex.

因為他們的整個軍事基礎設施都是建立在美國軍事上，這也是為什麼數千億，甚至上兆美元會流向美國的工業複合體。

But here is the indirect winner of this war, and that is the artificial intelligence.

但這場戰爭間接的贏家是人工智慧。

Big tech companies in the US have spent trillions of dollars investing in AI.

美國的大型科技公司已經投入數兆美元投資AI。

But there is one problem with these investments is that this investment is not paying off yet.

但這些投資有一個問題，就是還沒有看到回報。

So for example, if you spend $1 trillion on something, but

所以舉例來說，如果你花了一兆美元在某件事上，但是

this something is not paying you off, then investors will no longer be interested in investing in that.

這件事沒有回報，投資人就不會再有興趣投資了。

But you still want to win the artificial intelligence race.

但你還是想贏得人工智慧競賽。

ChatGPT doesn't make a lot of money, but it spends a lot of money.

ChatGPT 雖然沒賺很多錢，但花費卻很高。

95% of users of ChatGPT are not paid users.

ChatGPT 有 95% 的使用者都不是付費使用者。

So the question how do you turn them into paid users?

所以問題來了，你該怎麼把他們變成付費使用者呢？

So big tech companies want to use this war to capitalize on it, to monetize AI so that the AI bubble does not burst.

所以大型科技公司想利用這場戰爭來獲利，讓 AI 貨幣化，這樣 AI 的保麗龍才不會破裂。

The AI bubble supposed to burst like right now or maybe a month ago, but

AI 的保麗龍本來應該現在或一個月前就破裂了，但是

because this war started, there will be a big winner.

因為這場戰爭開打，就會有一個大贏家。

So whenever you are investing in anything, there is money that is coming out and then there is money that is coming out.

所以當你在投資任何東西時，都會有錢進來，也會有錢出去。

A good business is when money that is coming out is much more than the money that is coming in.

一個好的生意是，出去的錢遠比進來的錢多。

For some period of time you can actually maintain a strategy where money keeps going on without money coming out.

有一段時間，你可以維持一個策略，讓錢不斷進來，而不用花錢出去。

At some point you have to make a return on this investment.

總有一天，你必須從這項投資中獲利。

And if that does not happen, it turns into one giant bubble and the bubble burst and a lot of people will start losing money.

如果沒有發生，就會變成一個巨大的保麗龍，保麗龍破裂，很多人就會開始賠錢。

That is what happened, for example, in 1990s when so many businesses have spent so much money on Internet companies.

這就是例如在 1990 年代發生的事，當時有好多公司在網路公司上花了好多錢。

But nobody saw how these Internet companies could make real returns in the full foreseeable future.

但沒有人看到這些網路公司在可預見的未來能真正賺到錢。

Yes they did in the long run, but not in the short run.

是的，長遠來看他們做到了，但短期內不行。

The same thing has happened to the housing market back in early 2000s.

2000 年代初期的房地產市場也發生了同樣的事情。

So AI companies need to spend at least a trillion dollars to break even.

所以 AI 公司需要花至少一兆美元才能打平。

And they have already spent more than $2 trillion.

而且他們已經花了超過兩兆美元。

這兩兆美元，我們看不到回報。

Now we need to spend at least a trillion dollars to break even.

現在我們需要花至少一兆美元才能打平。

But investors are not ready to pay that much.

但是投資者還沒準備好要付這麼多錢。

So the bubble is going to burst, which is going to make it a lot more difficult to invest.

所以保麗龍就要破滅了，這會讓投資變得更加困難。

So here is how the war in Iran is going to help with that.

所以伊朗的戰爭將會在這方面有所幫助。