Name: 伊朗新領導人的選擇傳達「挑戰的訊息」！| DW 新聞 (Iran's new choice of leader shows "a message of defiance" | DW News)
Uploaded: 2026-03-09T23:08:57.000Z
Duration: 14 min 8 s

Iran's clerics have chosen the country's new spiritual and political leader.

伊朗的神職人員選出了國家新的精神和政治領袖。

基礎被動語態

Mujtaba Khamenei is the son of the previous supreme leader, Ayatollah Khadi Khamenei, who was killed in US Israeli airstrikes at the start of the war.

穆傑塔巴·哈梅內伊是前任最高領袖阿亞圖拉·哈迪·哈梅內伊的兒子，後者在戰爭初期死於美以空襲。

The new man at the top is seen as a hardliner operating behind the scenes with close ties to the country's political and military establishment.

新上任的最高領導人被視為一位強硬派，在幕後運作，與該國的政治和軍事體系關係密切。

His appointment signals both continuity and the regime's defiance of its enemies.

他的任命既象徵著延續，也表明了政權對其敵人的蔑視。

As Iran's new supreme leader is announced, Moshtab Al Khamenei takes the reins from his father slain in US And Israeli strikes at the end of February.

隨著伊朗新任最高領袖的宣佈，穆什塔巴·哈梅內伊接過了二月下旬在美以襲擊中遇害的父親的權杖。

Supporters of the Islamic regime have welcomed the succession.

伊斯蘭政權的支持者們對這次繼承表示歡迎。

Thank God someone became the leader who we are confident will avenge the blood of his father and will not compromise with America.

感恩上帝，有人成為了領袖，我們相信他將會為他父親報仇，並且不會與美國妥協。

He is the rightful successor to the late leader.

I'm honored to support him and to make this country proud.

我很榮幸能支持他，讓國家引以為傲。

Mojtaba Khamenei is Iran's third supreme leader.

穆什塔巴·哈梅內伊是伊朗第三任最高領袖。

The 56 year old has kept a low public profile.

這位56歲的男子一直保持低調。

He's a mid rank cleric who's never held elected office, but

他是一位中階神職人員，從未擔任過民選職務，但

he's believed to have forged strong political and military connections.

據信他已建立起強大的政治和軍事聯繫。

The younger Khamenei's appointment is a sign of defiance and perhaps revenge.

年輕哈梅內伊的任命是蔑視的象徵，也可能是復仇。

His mother died alongside his father in the US And Israeli strikes, and

他的母親與父親一同在美以襲擊中喪生，

reports say his wife and other family members were also killed.

據報導，他的妻子和其他家人也遇害了。

As Iran's most powerful figure, he will shape the nation's war strategy.

作為伊朗最有權勢的人物，他將決定國家的戰爭策略。

Iran's allies, including China and Russia, have thrown their support behind the new Ayatollah.

包括中國和俄羅斯在內的伊朗盟友，都已將支持投向了新任的阿亞圖拉。

Donald Trump has previously called him unacceptable.

And Israel has vowed to kill anyone who fails to bring in reforms.

而以色列誓言要殺死任何未能推動改革的人。

And for Iranians who oppose the Islamic regime, his appointment dims their hopes of systemic change.

對於反對伊斯蘭政權的伊朗人來說，他的任命讓他們對體制變革的希望更加渺茫。

Well, for more on Iran's leadership change, we can speak now with Simon Mabon.

好的，想了解更多關於伊朗領導層變動的消息，我們現在可以請教 Simon Mabon。

He's a lecturer in international relations at Lancaster University in the uk.

他是英國蘭開斯特大學國際關係學的講師。

Simon, what do you make of Iran choosing Mojtaba Khamenei as the country's new supreme leader?

Simon，你認為伊朗選擇 Mojtaba Khamenei 作為國家新任最高領袖有何看法？

Well, I think the sort of the signs were there.

嗯，我認為一些跡象早就出現了。

There were rumors starting to come out of Tehran that it was going to be this sort of succession, this sort of choice.

德黑蘭一直有傳言說，將會是這種繼承、這種選擇。

And I don't think that's all that surprising in the sense that it sends a very strong, very clear message, a message of defiance, a message that says the Islamic Republic will live long and a message that says we will not go down without a fight.

我認為這並不令人意外，因為這傳達了一個非常強烈、非常明確的訊息，一個蔑視的訊息，一個表明伊斯蘭共和國將長久存在，以及我們絕不會不戰而降的訊息。

And I think in that respect, it's the message that many were sort of expecting with this type of choice.

我認為在這方面，這正是許多人對這種選擇所預期的訊息。

Someone who is strong, someone who is a hardliner, someone who is very, very close to the Revolutionary Guard Corps.

一個強硬的人，一個強硬派，一個與革命衛隊非常非常親近的人。

And it's a real message of defiance, I think.

我認為這是一個真正的蔑視訊息。

But it's interesting, isn't it, that we have a succession situation that is not what you would in some countries, picking the deceased Supreme Leader's son to replace him sounds a bit like a hereditary monarchy.

但很有趣，不是嗎？我們面臨的繼承情況，不像某些國家那樣，選擇已故最高領袖的兒子來接替他，聽起來有點像世襲君主制。

How is that likely to go down with the Iranian people?

這對伊朗人民來說，可能會如何反應？

Well, it does sound like a hereditary monarchy, which is the very thing that the Islamic Republic fought against or was established after, and

嗯，這聽起來確實像世襲君主制，而這正是伊斯蘭共和國所反對的，或是建立在推翻它之後的，

the revolutionaries that were involved in toppling the Shah were so opposed to.

那些參與推翻國王的革命者極力反對的。

So now to be at a point where Ali Khamenei's son has been anointed, entered as the supreme leader seems to be the re implementation of a system of dynastic rule, which is obviously something that goes against the teachings of the Islamic Republic.

所以現在到了阿里·哈梅內伊的兒子被任命、被確立為最高領袖的地步，這似乎是王朝統治體系的重新實施，這顯然與伊斯蘭共和國的教義背道而馳。

And I think in the longer term, this will prove to be a real owner of contention for a lot of people.

我認為從長遠來看，這將會是許多人爭論的焦點。

But this is a choice made in a particular moment.

For that particular moment, Iran is under heavy bombardment and I think was being made.

在那個特定時刻，伊朗正遭受猛烈轟炸，我認為當時正在做出這個決定。

Look, there had to be a strong candidate that was picked in order to send this message of defiance.

看看，必須選出一個強有力的候選人，才能傳達這種挑釁的訊息。

Mojtabi Khamenei is considered a hardliner with deep connections to the dreaded Revolutionary Guard.

穆罕默德·穆罕默迪是位強硬派，與令人聞風喪膽的革命衛隊有著深厚的關係。

What could his appointment mean for those in Iran who've been pushing for reforms, who were out on the streets in January demanding change?

他的任命對伊朗那些一直推動改革、一月走上街頭要求改變的人來說，意味著什麼？

Yeah, I think that's going to be taken really badly by those that were in any way hoping for some type of change.

是的，我認為任何對某種改變抱有希望的人，都會對此感到非常不滿。

It's pretty clear that Mujtaba has been the power behind the robes, as one US diplomat put it a few years ago.

幾年前，一位美國外交官曾說過，穆罕默德顯然是幕後的權力核心。

And in that role, he's sort of overseen the repression that many Iranians have faced, be it those protesting earlier this year or earlier into the instances of protests that have taken place across Iran.

在這個職位上，他有點像是監督了許多伊朗人所面臨的鎮壓，無論是今年稍早抗議的人們，或是伊朗各地先前發生的抗議事件。

So I think it's deeply worrying for those in Iran wanting change, for those wanting the regime to change, not necessarily even hoping for regime change.

所以我認為，對於伊朗那些渴望改變、希望政權改變的人來說，這確實是令人非常擔憂的，甚至不一定是希望政權能夠被推翻。

So I think it's a worrying step in that regard.

所以我認為這在這方面是一個令人擔憂的步驟。

But it does highlight the desire from people within the Islamic Republic to put on this strong face and to line everything up, if you will, to make sure that the irgc, the Revolutionary Guard and the Supreme Leader are singing from the same hymn sheet, so to speak.

但這確實突顯了伊斯蘭共和國內部那些想要展現強硬姿態的人們的渴望，並且，如果可以這麼說的話，讓一切都安排妥當，以確保革命衛隊和最高領袖能夠同心同德。

What can you tell us about how this choice of Supreme Leader might impact the direction of the war?

你能告訴我們，最高領袖的這個選擇可能會對戰爭的方向產生什麼影響嗎？

Can we expect this new leader to be more hands on than his predecessor?

我們能預期這位新領袖會比他的前任更親力親為嗎？

你只要看看他們的年齡就可以了。

I mean, Ali Khamenei, Mujtaba's father, was in his late 80s and he was very unwell.

意思是，阿里·哈梅內伊，穆傑塔巴的父親，已經八十多歲了，而且身體非常不好。

He was not rarely seen, he was not often seen in public over the past few years.

And that I think is a consequence of his age and his health.

這我想是因為他的年齡和健康狀況所致。

I would imagine that there will be a more hands on approach taken by Mojitaba and I think he will be more visible in one way, shape or form.

我猜測穆傑塔巴會採取更親力親為的方式，而且我認為他會在某種程度上更常露面。

Granted, given the context and given that the Israelis have already said that he will be a target.

當然，考量到現況以及以色列已經說過他會是目標。

So I think we'll see a more belligerent form being taken by Mujtaba.

所以我認為我們會看到穆傑塔巴採取更具挑釁性的姿態。

I think we'll see more definition, defiant tone taken.

我認為我們會看到更明確、更挑釁的語氣。

I think we've also got to factor in the personal dynamics in his position right now that he's lost his, both his father and his mother in the same strike from the US against whom he has held very, very strong views, very deep seated anger, animosity, if not hatred over the past few decades.

我認為我們也必須考慮他目前個人處境的動態，他失去了父親和母親，都是因為美國的攻擊，而他對美國抱持著非常、非常強烈的看法，幾十年來都懷有根深蒂固的憤怒、敵意，甚至是仇恨。

所以我認為這裡有很多事情正在發生。

I don't think it bodes well for those wanting a diplomatic solution to the crisis, to the conflict.

我不認為這對那些希望以外交途徑解決危機、解決衝突的人來說是個好兆頭。

I think it's more this doubling down on Iran's current position.

我認為這更像是伊朗在現有立場上加倍堅持。

Simon, thank you very much for talking with us.

賽門，非常感謝你和我們談話。

That was Simon Mabon, Lecturer in International Relations at Lancaster University.

這就是蘭開斯特大學國際關係講師 Simon Mabon。

Rojin Mukrayan of University College Cork in Ireland is a specialist in Middle east politics with a focus on Iran.

愛爾蘭科克大學學院的 Rojin Mukrayan 是中東政治專家，專注於伊朗。

And she told me the choice of Moshabakhamenei as Iran's new Supreme Leader comes as no surprise.

她告訴我，選擇 Moshabakhamenei 擔任伊朗新任最高領袖並不令人意外。

I think for many people it's not a sudden elevation because the discussion or the question of succession for a long time has shaped Iranian politics.

我認為對許多人來說，這並非突然的晉升，因為繼承的討論或問題長久以來一直形塑著伊朗的政治。

And I think behind the closed door there was already, even before this war started, there was a relatively consensus among the assembly experts that who will be their next successor.

我認為，即使在這場戰爭開始之前，在閉門會議中，專家會議中早已對下一任繼承人達成了相對的共識。

So to look at Mojaba Khamenei's announcement, like as a supreme leader, this is not a huge surprise for many people.

所以， Mojaba Khamenei 被宣佈為最高領袖，對許多人來說這並不令人意外。

However, what is surprising and what is significant, many expected that after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was targeted in the first day of the Israel and US attacks, they were expecting a collapse within the command and control structures.

然而，令人驚訝且重要的，是許多人預期在最高領袖 Ali Khamenei 在以色列和美國攻擊的第一天遭到攻擊後，指揮和控制結構將會崩潰。

Because Khamenei, the Supreme Leader has a very significant and important Role within the Iranian politics, it has the ultimate decision making.

因為最高領袖 Khamenei 在伊朗政治中扮演著非常重要且關鍵的角色，擁有最終的決策權。

But it seems that there were some expectations and some like already planned within the command and control structure how to like manage war without a Supreme Leader.

但看來，在指揮和控制結構中，已經有一些預期和規劃，如何在沒有最高領袖的情況下管理戰爭。

And I think that in the short term they come up with figurehead and to announce it as a Supreme Leader, that tells us that there were already a decision behind a closed door about this.

我認為，在短期內，他們推出一個傀儡，並宣佈他為最高領袖，這告訴我們，這背後早已有了閉門決策。

But what is also challenging from many's perspective is that during the 1979 revolution, Ayatollah's promised to bring an end to the hereditary transfer of power.

但從許多人的角度來看，更具挑戰性的是，在1979年的伊斯蘭革命中，阿亞圖拉承諾將終結世襲的權力轉移。

But now we see that the son of the previous former Supreme Leader came to power.

但現在我們看到，前任最高領袖的兒子繼承了權力。

So in light of what you just said about the command and control structure, does it even matter who leads Iran now, even if it would have been not such a hardliner?

所以，根據你剛才說的指揮和控制結構，現在誰領導伊朗還重要嗎？即使他不是強硬派呢？

Well, the Iranian politics has its own unique structure.

嗯，伊朗的政治有其獨特的結構。

Like at the top we have the Supreme Leader which has the ultimate power and is the final decision making figure.

就像頂端有最高領袖，他擁有最終權力，是最終的決策者。

But behind the Supreme Leader office we have a set of different institutions that they are organized based on a horizontal like distribution of power.

但在最高領袖辦公室後面，我們有一系列不同的機構，它們是基於權力的水準分配來組織的。

And each institution has its own command and control structure.

而每個機構都有自己的指揮和控制結構。

So he's going to like who's going to be next leader.

所以，接下來誰會成為下一任領袖，這點很重要。

Of course it matters in many ways to bring all these diverse institutions behind the Supreme Leader together, to hold them together.

當然，要讓這些多元的機構團結在最高領袖之下，把他們凝聚在一起，這在很多方面都很重要。

So in case of especially war, the role of the Supreme Leader is very essential because we have very dispersed power structure behind his office.

所以，尤其是在戰爭的時候，最高領袖的角色非常關鍵，因為他的辦公室後面有非常分散的權力結構。

And in the lack of a final decision maker, there can be chaos.

而且，如果沒有最終的決策者，可能會造成混亂。

Like in the previous, we saw that for example, President Pezechian offered or issued apology to the Gulf countries, neighboring countries for attacking them.

就像之前我們看到，例如總統 Pezechian 向海灣國家、鄰國道歉，為攻擊他們的事情。

But after that, straight away we saw that military officials came out and said, no, we're going to continue our attack as long as Iran and Israel is going to attack us.

但在那之後，軍方官員立刻出來說，不，只要伊朗和以色列攻擊我們，我們就會繼續攻擊。

So we saw that some level of dispute among different institutions began to emerge few days ago.

所以我們看到幾天前，不同機構之間開始出現一些爭議。

But now that they announced the next Supreme Leader, we should wait and see how he's going to bring all these diverse or dispersed like institutions together again and keep the coherence within the system.

但現在他們宣佈了下一任最高領袖，我們就等著看他要如何再次將這些多元或分散的機構團結起來，並維持體系內的連貫性。

So if I understand you correctly, we can expect more defiance.

所以如果我沒理解錯的話，我們可以預期會有更多的對抗。

How sustainable is this level of response?