Name: 伊朗對抗美國「控制」的生存策略 🌍 | 全球新聞Podcast (Iran's survival strategy against US ‘’control’ | Global News Podcast)
Uploaded: 2026-03-05T23:03:06.000Z
Duration: 9 min 38 s

Welcome to the global News Podcast on YouTube.

歡迎來到 YouTube 的全球新聞 Podcast。

Today, as the US and Israel continue to strike Iran, we take a look at the Iranian response.

今天，隨著美國和以色列持續打擊伊朗，我們來看看伊朗的反應。

And is the war crucially going beyond Washington's control?

這場戰爭是否關鍵地超出了華盛頓的控制？

To talk more about this, I've got Bahman Kalbasi from the BBC's Persian service alongside me.

為了更深入地探討這個問題，我請到了 BBC 波斯語服務的 Bahman Kalbasi。

Bachman, as always, thank you so much for your time.

Bachman，一如既往，非常感謝你的時間。

Now, first of all, let's kick off then with the Iranian response so far in response to the US And Israeli strikes.

那麼，首先，讓我們從伊朗到目前為止對美國和以色列罷工的回應開始。

What have you made of the strategy they're using thus far?

你認為他們到目前為止採用的策略是什麼？

A lot of observers thought that if this war started that Iran at some point later on will start targeting Arab countries.

許多觀察家認為，如果這場戰爭開始了，伊朗日後會開始針對阿拉伯國家。

And some people were surprised how quickly they got there.

有些人對於他們這麼快就走到這一步感到驚訝。

So I think that shows that they thought of this immediately as a war of survival.

所以我認為這顯示他們立刻就將此視為一場生存之戰。

Obviously, targeting of the Supreme Leader and the entire upper echelon of the military gave them the impression that this is a war of a regime change.

顯然，針對最高領袖和整個軍隊高層，讓他們覺得這是一場政權更迭的戰爭。

Therefore, they have to throw everything at it from the very get go.

是以，他們必須從一開始就全力以赴。

The strategy is obviously for them, increasing pressure on global energy supply and making everybody else pay.

他們的策略顯然是增加全球能源供應的壓力，讓其他人付出代價。

The definition of victory for them is survival.

It's not military victory, because that's obviously impossible versus United States and Israel jointly.

這不是軍事上的勝利，因為對抗美國和以色列聯手顯然是不可能的。

So how do you survive is that you increase the cost and stay in power until the calculus changes in Washington that this is going too long, that, that this is too costly and obviously the United States is going to or Trump administration is going to have to worry about the domestic implications of it as well as what the allies in the region are saying.

所以如何生存，就是增加成本，並維持權力，直到華盛頓的計算改變，認為這場戰爭拖太久了，代價太高了，而且美國或川普政府顯然必須擔心國內的影響，以及該地區盟友的說法。

Bahman has strikes ramp up, so does the rhetoric in all of this we've been hearing again from Secretary of Defense for the United States, Pete Hegseth, using strong language, I quote, he's saying that the US Will control Iran and control it soon.

隨著伊朗的罷工升級，言論也隨之升級，我們再次聽到了美國國防部長 Pete Hegseth 的強硬言論，我引用他的話，他說 美國將控制伊朗，而且很快就會控制。

Can Iran ever really be under control, under the control of the United States?

伊朗真的有可能完全被美國控制嗎？

It's hard to get into the minds of this administration's officials, especially when they speak in such bravado.

要揣測這個政府官員的心思真的不容易，尤其是他們說話這麼誇張的時候。

So we heard similar language used about Venezuela.

我們也聽過類似的說法用在委內瑞拉身上。

We will take, you know, take the oil even.

我們甚至會，你知道，奪取石油。

But the reality is this is a country of 90 million people.

但現實是，這是一個有九千萬人口的國家。

It's very diverse, and short of entering with ground forces, it's unclear what the bombardment alone will accomplish.

它非常多元化，除非動用地面部隊，否則僅靠轟炸能達成什麼目標還不清楚。

It will obviously deprive the regime of many of its military tools, but

這顯然會剝奪政權的許多軍事工具，但

it does not mean that they will fall anytime soon because of it.

這並不代表他們會是以很快垮臺。

No aerial bombardment in history has alone resulted in a regime collapse.

歷史上沒有任何一次空襲轟炸是單獨導致政權崩潰的。

Everybody in this administration almost gives a different definition of what the point of this is and what is the end goal and what when is it that they can declare victory and go home?

請問這個政府裡面的每個人，對於這件事的意義、最終目標，以及什麼時候可以宣佈勝利回家，幾乎都有不同的定義？

Is it the nuclear program which they themselves said was obliterated eight months ago?

是他們自己說八個月前就被摧毀的核子計畫嗎？

All of it is very unclear and moving by the day, sometimes by the hour.

這一切都非常不明確，而且每天都在變化，有時候甚至是每小時。

How are Iranian people feeling at this moment?

90 million people, like you say, are a huge country, and

就像你說的，九千萬人口，這是一個幅員遼闊的國家，而且

then they're hearing words like, well, Iran will be toast, and they know it.

然後他們聽到像「伊朗將會完蛋」這樣的話，他們自己也知道。

What can we make of the mindset of Iranians who are having to experience and live through this?

經歷和活在這種情況下的伊朗人民，他們的想法我們會怎麼解讀？

I mean, by the fact of 90 million means it is not a monolith.

我的意思是，九千萬人口，這代表他們不是鐵板一塊。

And anybody who comes and says Iranians feel this way or the other isn't telling the entire story.

任何聲稱伊朗人民有某種感受的人，都沒有說出全部的故事。

還有社會經濟因素也扮演了角色。

他們離炸彈有多近，這也扮演了角色。

How much they want this regime gone plays a role on how they feel.

他們有多希望這個政權垮臺，這也會影響他們的感受。

So we have people who are celebrating in the first day and hopeful that this will result in regime collapse.

所以我們看到有些人第一天就在慶祝，希望這能導致政權瓦解。

As time goes by and that doesn't happen and the cost of civilians increases and daily life is completely interrupted, the very those very same people might shift their views.

隨著時間過去，如果這沒有發生，而且平民的犧牲增加，日常生活完全被打斷，那麼這些人可能會改變他們的看法。

We've had people on the other end who always opposed foreign intervention, who didn't like the fact that the United States came in, took out the leadership, even though some of them despised the leadership because basically, in their view, it wasn't anybody else's job to come in and do so.

我們也有些人，他們一直反對外國幹預，不喜歡美國介入並推翻領導層，即使他們有些人鄙視這個領導層，因為基本上，在他們看來，這不是別人的工作。

We have just heard CNN reporting the CIA has been training or working with Kurdish forces in Iraq to send them through Iran and create a buffer zone that sends shockwaves across the Iranian political and social spectrum.

我們剛聽到 CNN 報導，CIA 一直在訓練或與伊拉克的庫德族部隊合作，讓他們進入伊朗，建立一個緩衝區，這在伊朗的政治和社會層面引起了巨大震動。

There is nothing that unites Iranians more from all sides than Iran's territorial integrity.

沒有什麼比伊朗的領土完整更能團結伊朗各方了。

So the idea that somehow United States is arming ethnic groups that might result in civil war or parts of Iran being separated is a very uneasy feeling for a lot of people.

所以，美國正在武裝某些族群，可能會導致內戰或伊朗部分地區分裂的想法，讓很多人感到非常不安。

So maybe among those very people who want the regime changed, suddenly look at that and start worrying about where this is all going.

是以，也許那些非常希望政權更迭的人，突然看到這一幕，就會開始擔心這一切將走向何方。

And therefore, are there fears that this could have parallels with what has happened in Gaza in terms of the length of time it has gone on for and also the number of civilian casualties and deaths that we've seen?

是以，是否擔心這會與加薩發生的事情有相似之處，就其持續時間以及我們看到的平民傷亡人數而言？

You know, people in sort of maybe self defense mechanism don't want to think that and don't want to go that far.

你知道，人們出於某種自我防衛機制，不想去想這些，也不想走那麼遠。

But there are absolutely voices who would say, okay, this is starting to look very similar to number of, you know, other conflicts in the region, Gaza included.

但確實有人會說，好吧，這開始看起來非常像該地區的許多其他衝突，包括加薩。

So I don't think a lot of people in Iran, I just spoke to family about 30 minutes ago begging them to, like, move for the time being.

所以我不認為伊朗的許多人，我大約 30 分鐘前才跟家人講話，懇求他們暫時搬走。

You know, we hear the bombs, they're mainly hitting, you know, military sites, so we're going to stay.

你知道，我們聽到炸彈聲，它們主要擊中軍事設施，所以我們會留下來。

And then I get messages from other people saying, my friend died and he was just passing by a street corner.

然後我收到其他人的訊息說，我的朋友死了，他只是路過街角。

You know, two same people in the same city with the proximity of maybe like four or five miles, one wouldn't even leave because even though they can, they have a place they can go, they just don't want to endure the traffic.

你知道，在同一個城市裡，距離可能只有四五英里，有兩個人，其中一個甚至不想離開，因為即使他們可以搬走，他們也有地方可以去，只是他們不想忍受塞車。

So it just gives you a sense of how one within the same city people could have very, very different feelings about where this is going.

所以這讓你感覺到，即使在同一個城市裡，人們對事態的發展也會有非常非常不同的感受。

Let's finish off then with the question of control again.

那麼，我們就來談談控制權的問題吧。

And we've talked about the situation going beyond what the US has planned for and what they've outlined in terms of those, let's say, speculative numbers of four to five weeks and it all being resolved by then.

我們已經談過，事態的發展已經超出了美國的計畫，也超出了他們所概述的，假設的四到五週內解決的數字。

What resolve means, we don't even know, really.

解決到底是什麼意思，我們其實也不知道。

Is there a worry that Washington loses control of this?

President Trump himself said that he was surprised that Iran was targeting Arab countries in the Persian Gulf.

川普總統本人說，他很驚訝伊朗會攻擊波斯灣的阿拉伯國家。

Anybody who's paid any attention to Iran's strategy for years, that they have telegraphed this very openly wasn't a secret that they will do that.

任何關注伊朗多年策略的人都知道，他們早就公開傳達了這個訊息，這不是祕密，他們會這麼做。

So the fact that they didn't anticipate that and they're surprised by just gives you a sense that they weren't entirely in control even to begin with.

所以他們沒有預料到這一點，而且他們感到驚訝，這就說明瞭他們一開始就沒有完全掌控局面。

And the way the Americans are, American citizens are stuck in the region and there was no plan to evacuate them gives you another sense that they weren't necessarily prepared for the day after.

而且美國人，美國公民滯留在該地區，卻沒有撤離他們的計畫，這又讓你感覺到他們並沒有為事後做好充分的準備。

And so the longer this goes, obviously, the more complicated it becomes.

所以，這件事拖得越久，顯然就會變得越複雜。

Population movement, shortages of food, the IRGC moving its ground forces into action.

人口遷徙、食物短缺、伊朗革命衛隊地面部隊開始行動。

There are still a lot of cards that they have that they could play from the Iranian side.

從伊朗方面來看，他們還有很多牌可以打。

That could complicate things a lot further.

這可能會讓事情變得更加複雜。

That's Bachman Kalbasi from the BBC's Persian service.

這是 BBC 波斯語服務的 Bachman Kalbasi。

Please do subscribe to our YouTube channel and do leave us a like.

請務必訂閱我們的 YouTube 頻道，也請給我們一個讚。

If there are any other stories that you'd like us to cover, and

如果還有其他想讓我們報導的故事，

if you are interested in these world affairs, then do check out our global news podcast.

而且你對這些國際事務感興趣，

You can download that from wherever you get your podcasts from for now.

那一定要聽聽我們的全球新聞 podcast。

你現在就可以從任何收聽 podcast 的地方下載。