Name: 伊朗接下來會怎樣？| 全球新聞Podcast (What comes next inside Iran? | Global News Podcast)
Uploaded: 2026-03-03T23:05:40.000Z
Duration: 11 min 38 s

程度副詞

Welcome to the global News Podcast on YouTube where we go behind the headlines of a story and tell you why it really matters.

歡迎來到 YouTube 上的全球 News Podcast，在這裡我們會深入探討新聞事件，告訴你它真正重要的原因。

On this episode, we are discussing the U. S. Israel war against Iran.

這集節目，我們要討論美國與以色列對伊朗的戰爭。

And after the fall of the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, we're going to discuss what happens next.

在國家最高領袖 Ayatollah Ali Khamenei 垮臺後，我們要討論接下來會發生什麼事。

Will there be regime change or a change of regime?

會不會有政權更迭，或是政權的變更？

A difficult, complex question to answer, but

thankfully we have our chief international correspondent, Lyse Doucet with us now.

但很幸運的是，我們請到了我們的首席國際特派員 Lyse Doucet。

LYS has covered this region extensively and spent time there as recently as last month.

LYS 深入採訪過這個區域，而且就在上個月她還在那裡待過。

So the perfect guest to have on this program.

所以她是我們這個節目最適合的來賓了。

Lisa, thank you so much as always for your time.

Lyse，謝謝你一如往常撥空前來。

Like I said, a complex, difficult question to answer.

就像我說的，這是一個複雜又難回答的問題。

But regime change, change of regime, what do you think will unfold over the coming days and weeks?

但政權更迭、政權的變更，你覺得接下來幾天幾週會發生什麼事？

It means very different scenarios unfolding in Iran.

這意味著在伊朗會出現截然不同的情勢。

And I think anyone who has followed war, and

unfortunately there are all too many wars in our time, once they are unleashed, they very difficult control and acquire a momentum on their own, particularly in a war of this magnitude where Iran understands now.

不幸的是，我們這個時代有太多戰爭了，一旦開打，就非常難控制，而且會自己發展出動能，尤其是在這種規模的戰爭中，伊朗現在很清楚。

And I heard this when I was in Tehran last month from the deputy foreign minister who said if the war is existential, it will be on a completely different scale.

上個月我在德黑蘭時，副外長也跟我說過，如果戰爭是存亡之戰，規模就會完全不同。

And the way President Trump and the way Prime Minister Netanyahu continue to talk about it is that they're going to do the military operations, they'll do their job, and

川普總統和內塔尼亞胡總理繼續談論的方式是，他們會進行軍事行動，做好他們的工作，

then it's up to the Iranian people to do their job.

And President Trump says, once our bombing has finished, go into the streets and take over your institutions.

川普總統說，我們的轟炸結束後，你們就走上街頭，接管你們的機構。

There's a long way from that statement to a scenario in which the Iranian people rise up and take control of the institutions.

從這句話到伊朗人民起義、接管機構的劇本，還有很長一段路要走。

And in the middle of that is a very complex political and security structure in Iran.

而伊朗複雜的政治與安全結構就處於這個情況之中。

And even though we've often talked about how it is weakened, it is still robust.

即使我們常說它已經減弱，但它依然強韌。

There is in the June war of last year, the 12 Day War, there were no mass defections, there were no cracks as far as we could see in the clerical order.

去年六月的戰爭，也就是十二天戰爭，並沒有大規模的叛逃，聖職人員的秩序也沒有出現我們所見的裂痕。

I've heard Iranian observers saying if there were to be defections, if there were to be people stepping forward, it would have been that morning of Saturday when it was clear that the leader was gone.

我聽伊朗觀察家說，如果會有叛逃，如果會有民眾站出來，那應該是在星期六的早上，當時很明顯國家最高領袖已經不在了。

So I think it's too early to say exactly how this will unfold when it when it comes to Iran, they're fighting back.

所以，我認為現在就斷言伊朗的事態將如何發展，以及他們如何反擊，都還太早了。

The security chief has said that we are ready for a long war.

安全首長表示，我們已準備好長期抗戰。

What do Iran's leaders really want to happen next.

伊朗領導人真正希望接下來發生什麼事？

They want to inflict as much pain as possible on everyone who and every place which is in their reach.

他們想盡可能地讓所有在他們掌控範圍內的人和地方，承受最大的痛苦。

We've broadcast the statements, the alarm, the shock in many ways of the Arab leaders, including in the Persian Gulf, they who had worked around the clock trying to convince President Trump not to embark on military action, they failed.

我們已經播出許多阿拉伯領導人的聲明、警報和震驚，包括波斯灣的領導人，他們日以繼夜地試圖說服川普總統不要採取軍事行動，但他們失敗了。

而現在他們發現自己成了目標。

And I put this question to Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Ismail Baghai, on the first day of the war to say you're losing the allies you really need in this moment.

在戰爭的第一天，我將這個問題拋給了伊朗外交部發言人 Ismail Baghai，我問他，在這個時刻，你們正在失去真正需要的盟友。

And he said it is we are not retaliating against our neighbors in the region.

他說，我們沒有報復該地區的鄰國。

And Iranian authorities, even as they are under attack, want to project stability.

伊朗當局即使在遭受攻擊時，也想展現穩定。

They want to project that there is a seamless transition.

as you remember, there were hours in which they officially denied it, as soon as it was confirmed that the supreme leader had been killed, martyred, as they would say, then immediately under the constitution, a three man interim leadership council took charge.

一旦證實國家最高領袖被殺，被他們稱為「殉道」，就出現了幾個小時官方否認的情況。

The current president, Masood Pesheskyan, who is a reformist, the head of the judiciary, who is a hardliner, Mohsen Ajay, very, very hard line and a jurist of the Guardian Council, whose name is Alireza Arafi.

現任總統、改革派的 Masood Pesheskyan，司法部門的首長、強硬派的 Mohsen Ajay，以及憲法監督委員會的法學家 Alireza Arafi。

Those three people are now in charge and they will be in charge while the assembly of experts, an 88, roughly 88 member of very senior clerics, specially chosen and vetted, do what is one of their main tasks, possibly their only real task, which is to choose a new supreme leader.

這三個人現在負責，他們將負責，直到大約有 88 位資深教士組成的專家會議，他們是經過特別挑選和審查的，完成他們的主要任務之一，或許也是唯一真正的任務，也就是挑選新的國家最高領袖。

Now, right now, there's lots of Discussion how can 88 clerics meet when with the strength of Israeli intelligence and American intelligence, they'll know where they are?

現在，大家都在討論，這 88 位教士要怎麼開會，而以色列和美國情報單位這麼強大，他們會知道他們在哪裡嗎？

And it's not a kind of assembly that they meet with a zoom call.

這不是那種可以透過 Zoom 會議就能完成的會議。

So there is a sense in which that even though we heard from the foreign minister, Abbasarakchi, that that choice would be made in a matter of days, that perhaps this three member interim leadership council could stay on for longer.

所以，雖然我們聽外交部長 Abbasarakchi 說，這個決定會在幾天內做出，但或許這個三人臨時領導委員會可能會繼續任職更長時間。

And I should emphasize that this assembly of experts could choose an individual to become the supreme leader or they could choose a council, a new leadership council so that there would be a coalition of leaders.

我必須強調，這個專家會議可以選擇一個人成為國家最高領袖，也可以選擇一個委員會，一個新的領導委員會，這樣就會形成一個領導聯盟。

I've seen also in the last few days a lot of protests from Shiite Muslims as well across the region protesting, you know, some of them saying that they've been orphaned after the death of the supreme Leader.

我這幾天也看到該地區許多什葉派穆斯林發起抗議，有些人說，在國家最高領袖去世後，他們感覺自己像是孤兒了。

It's going to be Interesting to see what unfolds when it comes to people there and what they want to happen.

接下來會發生什麼事，以及當地人民希望發生什麼事，這將會很有趣。

How to summarize the will of the people of Iran, the people who have lived for 47 years under an increasingly hardening and repressive Islamic Republic of Iran.

要怎麼總結伊朗人民的心聲呢？這些伊朗人民，在一個日益強硬和壓迫的伊朗伊斯蘭共和國統治下，已經生活了 47 年。

That last protest in January, which was nationwide, was put down with unprecedented force, the worst lethal force in the history of the Islamic Republic.

一月份那場全國性的抗議活動，被前所未有的武力鎮壓了，是伊朗伊斯蘭共和國歷史上最嚴重的致命武力。

I was really stunned when we went to Tehran and saw how raw the anger and pain was, even asking a general question.

當我們去了德黑蘭，看到那種原始的憤怒和痛苦，即使問一個籠統的問題，我真的非常震驚。

Not knowing how much people wanted to talk, but

when they were sure that their identity would be protected.

當他們確定自己的身份會受到保護的時候。

The emotions spilled, the tears spilled, the angry questions.

情緒湧現，眼淚直流，質問聲不斷。

How come so many young people were killed?

為什麼有這麼多年輕人被殺害？

Even people marching up to us in the middle of a market saying, I want my voices to be heard.

即使是市場裡有人走向我們說，我希望我的聲音被聽見。

I've never heard this before in all my trips to Iran, since 1989, since, in fact, since the beginning of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's term, length of time in office.

自從1989年以來，甚至自從阿亞圖拉·阿里·哈梅內伊擔任國家最高領袖以來，我從未聽過這樣的話，在他任職期間。

I want my country to be attacked because it's not nice, they said, but

他們說，我希望我的國家被攻擊，因為它不友善，但是

it's the only way we can bring about change.

這是我們能帶來改變的唯一方法。

And yet, while there are, as far as we can see, so many Iranians who revile this regime, there are those who revere Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who saw him as a spiritual leader, who, for many Iranians of a younger generation, of a certain generation, was the only leader that they knew.

然而，雖然有許多伊朗人憎恨這個政權，但也有人崇敬阿亞圖拉·阿里·哈梅內伊，把他視為精神領袖，對許多年輕一代、某一代的伊朗人來說，他是他們唯一認識的領袖。

So it is very much a country at a crossroads, pulling in different directions.

所以，這是一個國家正處於十字路口，朝著不同方向拉扯。

And going back to your first question, there has always been this anxiety among Iranians, even those who would like to see change, not wanting their country to be plunged into the kind of chaos and collapse that they see in their neighbors.

回到你最初的問題，伊朗人一直都有一種焦慮，即使是那些希望看到改變的人，也不希望他們的國家陷入他們在鄰國看到的混亂和崩潰。

They see in Iraq, although Iraq is stable, stabilizing a bit.

他們在伊拉克看到，儘管伊拉克穩定，但正在稍微穩定下來。

They see what happens when there is a foreign intervention.

他們看到外國幹預會發生什麼事。

And so for them, they want to see change in the regime.

所以對他們來說，他們希望看到政權的變更。

But there are those who basically feel the only way to make their lives better, to bring Iran into the international community, to not have this kind of standoff, to not be led by political leaders who spend untold sums of money on foreign proxies and partners right across the region and create even greater problems for Iranians in their daily lives.

但也有一些人認為，要讓他們的生活更好、讓伊朗融入國際社會、避免這種對峙、不要被那些在整個區域花費鉅額資金在國外代理人和夥伴身上，並為伊朗人民的日常生活製造更多問題的政治領袖領導，唯一的辦法就是這樣做。

Donald Trump wants Iran to follow the model of Venezuela, for example.

舉例來說，唐納·川普希望伊朗仿效委內瑞拉的模式。

He himself, President Trump, has talked about the fact that some Iranian leaders are willing to talk to him as well, so could we say that the regime stays roughly the same, but

他自己，川普總統，曾說過有些伊朗領袖也願意和他談話，所以我們能說政權大致不變，但

it could be more pragmatic, or is that just too simplistic to even say that?

它可能會更務實，或者這樣說太過簡化了嗎？

We're back to the question with which we started.

Is it about changing the regime or is it about regime change?

這是在政權的變更，還是在政權更迭？

President Trump gave a six minute interview to the New York Times.

川普總統接受了《紐約時報》的六分鐘專訪。

And in that small little window where he spoke, he mused that he could do all of those, that it could be about regime change, both the people of Iran taking their destiny in their own hands.

而他在那短暫的談話時間裡，他曾想過他可以做到這些，這可能是關乎政權更迭，讓伊朗人民掌握自己的命運。

As he said in his first speech, the best chance in generations.

正如他在第一次演講中所說，這是幾代人以來最好的機會。

He talked about he could possibly talk to Iranian leaders if they came forward.

他提到如果伊朗領導人主動，他或許可以和他們談話。

He also talked about the Venezuela scenario, which the military action removed the President, Nicolas Maduro, his wife went along too.

他也談到了委內瑞拉的情況，那裡的軍事行動讓總統尼古拉斯·馬杜羅下臺，他的妻子也跟著離開了。

They're now facing trial in New York, no American military casualties, and

他們現在在紐約面臨審判，沒有美軍傷亡，

the Vice president, Elsie Rodriguez, steps up.

副總統艾爾西·羅德里格斯接任。

She becomes the President and is now working with the United States of America and of course, providing access to the oil.

她成為總統，現在正與美利堅合眾國合作，當然，也提供了石油的開採權。

President Trump described the Venezuela option as the perfect scenario.

川普總統形容委內瑞拉的選項是完美的劇本。

And it is true that a new supreme leader could emerge who is less hardline, less hostile to Israel and the United States, less suspicious of the west, less ready to spend all that, you know, millions, if not billions of Iran's money on foreign partners and proxies.

而且確實，可能會出現一位新的國家最高領袖，他對以色列和美國的敵意較少，對西方國家較不懷疑，也不會那麼願意把伊朗的數百萬，甚至數十億的資金花在國外夥伴和代理人身上。

There could be a supreme leader who takes the country in a different direction.

可能會有一位國家最高領袖帶領國家走向不同的方向。

But the whole apparatus of the Islamic Republic is still there, most of all the forces which are expected to play an absolutely pivotal role, no matter who takes the top spot, whether it's one or, as I mentioned earlier, a council, and

但伊斯蘭共和國的整個體系還在，尤其是那些預計將扮演絕對關鍵角色的部隊，無論誰接任最高職位，是一個人，或者像我剛才說的，是一個委員會，

that is the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

They were formed in 1979 because the new leaders didn't trust the army.

他們是在1979年成立的，因為新領導人不太信任軍隊。

They thought it would be too still too loyal to the Shah.

他們覺得軍隊對國王（Shah）還是太忠誠了。

They have one goal, which is to protect and to preserve the Islamic Republic.

他們有一個目標，就是要保護和維持伊斯蘭共和國。

And 47 years on, for many of them, particularly at the top levels, it also means preserving their privileges.

而且47年過去了，對他們許多人來說，特別是高層，這也意味著要維持他們的特權。

They now dominate Iran in terms of the economy and the security and they are very ideological.

他們現在在經濟和安全方面主導著伊朗，而且他們非常有意識形態。

But Iranian history also has another lesson for us.

但伊朗的歷史也給了我們另一個教訓。

During Iran's absolutely punishing war, eight year long war with Iraq in the 1980s.

在伊朗與伊拉克長達八年、極其慘烈的戰爭期間，也就是1980年代。

At the end, the revolutionary leader, the first one, Ayatollah Khomeini, used this expression that he would agree to a ceasefire and he would drink from the poisoned chalice.

戰爭結束時，第一任革命領袖阿亞圖拉·霍梅尼（Ayatollah Khomeini）說，他同意停火，就像喝下毒酒一樣。