Name: 政權更迭：川普伊朗戰略的真正考驗 | 費裡德觀點 (Regime change: The real test of Trump’s Iran strategy | Fareed’s Take)
Uploaded: 2026-03-01T21:36:24.000Z
Duration: 10 min 18 s

My first reaction to news of the death of Ayatollah Khamenei was relief.

聽到艾亞圖拉·哈米尼過世的消息，我第一個反應是鬆了一口氣。

程度副詞

Relief for the 92 million Iranians who are freed from the grip of an 86 year old tyrant, a man who over nearly four decades ran his country into poverty at home and isolation abroad.

鬆了一口氣的還有九千兩百萬伊朗人民，他們終於擺脫了一位八十六歲暴君的掌控，這位暴君近四十年間將國家帶向了國內貧困、國外孤立的深淵。

Khamenei was the hardest of the hardliners who defined Iran's unyielding opposition not only to America and the west and Israel, but

哈米尼是強硬派中的最硬派，他定義了伊朗不僅對美國、西方和以色列，

也對自己人民的自由，都採取了毫不動搖的敵對立場。

He shaped the modern Islamic Republic into the strange hybrid regime that it is run by clerics, military officers and bureaucrats, all repressive, dysfunctional and corrupt to the core.

他塑造了現代伊斯蘭共和國，使其成為一個由神職人員、軍官和官僚組成的奇特混合政權，這些人從根本上都是壓迫、功能失調且腐敗的。

沒有人應該為他的逝去感到悲傷。

But when we step back and ask where does this go next, things look murky.

但當我們退一步思考接下來會如何發展，情況就變得不明朗了。

President Trump has chosen to go to war with a country that did not pose an imminent threat to the United States.

川普總統選擇與一個對美國沒有迫在眉睫威脅的國家開戰。

His claims to the contrary are belied by his own words.

他相反的說法，與他自己的話自相矛盾。

After the United States bombed Iran last June, the President loudly and repeatedly declared that he had obliterated Iran's nuclear program.

美國去年六月轟炸伊朗後，總統大聲且反覆宣稱他摧毀了伊朗的核計畫。

Yet eight months later, he asks us to believe that this obliterated program posed such an urgent threat to the United States that Trump had to act without seeking authorization from the United States Congress.

然而八個月後，他卻要我們相信，這個被摧毀的計畫對美國構成如此迫切的威脅，以至於川普必須在未尋求美國國會授權的情況下採取行動。

In his brief speech announcing the attack, President Trump revealed the true purpose of the military action, regime change.

在宣佈攻擊的簡短演說中，川普總統揭露了這次軍事行動的真正目的：政權更迭。

He explicitly called on the Iranian people to overthrow their government.

他明確呼籲伊朗人民推翻他們的政府。

In doing so, he has defined the purpose of this war and the measure by which it will be judged a success or failure.

這麼做，他定義了這場戰爭的目的，以及衡量其成敗的標準。

Historically, regime change from the air has rarely taken place.

歷史上，由空中進行的政權更迭很少成功。

I cannot think of a single case in which a government fell without military forces on the ground actually doing the toppling.

我想不出任何一個政府，在沒有地面部隊實際推翻的情況下垮臺的例子。

And more broadly, the record of American sponsored regime change in the Middle east is not a happy one.

更廣泛地說，美國在中東推動政權更迭的紀錄並不好。

From Afghanistan to Iraq to Libya, there's always the possibility that this time will be different, that Iranians are more educated and desperate for freedom.

從阿富汗到伊拉克再到利比亞，總是有可能這次會有所不同，伊朗人民受過更多教育，更渴望自由。

But it is likely to be a long and complex struggle.

但這很可能是一場漫長而複雜的鬥爭。

Fears of a broader regional war are likely unfounded because Iran has already acted in self defeating ways that are uniting the region against it.

對於更廣泛地區戰爭的擔憂，可能沒有根據，因為伊朗已經採取了自我毀滅的行動，反而讓整個地區團結起來對抗它。

Rather than drive a wedge between the United States and the Gulf states which had expressed neutrality in this conflict, the Tehran went after the Gulf states in attacks that caused little military damage but incensed those countries.

德黑蘭沒有成功地在中東國家與美國之間製造隔閡，這些國家在此衝突中曾表達中立，反而攻擊了海灣國家，造成的軍事損害不大，卻激怒了這些國家。

Above all is the basic reality Iran is very weak.

最重要的是，伊朗實際上非常虛弱。

Iran's military battered, dozens of its leaders killed in airstrikes.

伊朗軍隊傷痕累累，數十名領導人在空襲中喪生。

Its allies like Hezbollah and Hamas are also in tatters.

像真主黨和哈馬斯這樣的盟友也處於困境。

Meanwhile, Israel, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are bristling with military might.

與此同時，以色列、沙烏地阿拉伯和阿拉伯聯合大公國正軍力強盛。

Yet none of this will easily translate into success on the terms that Trump has implied regime change and a substantially better government for the long suffering Iranian people.

然而，這些因素都不會輕易轉化為川普所暗示的政權更迭，以及為長期受苦的伊朗人民帶來一個更好的政府。

The most likely outcome is that a badly bruised government stays in power with new faces.

最有可能的結果是，一個嚴重受創的政府，換上新面孔繼續掌權。

Perhaps the military becomes more powerful and the mullahs less so.

也許軍隊會變得更強大，神職人員的影響力則會減弱。

Perhaps Iran comes back to the table with even more concessions on the nuclear issue.

也許伊朗會在核問題上做出更多讓步，重新回到談判桌。

President Trump seems already to have recognized the complexity of the regime change strategy and has floated the idea that one of his off ramps might be to deal with new leaders of the same regime.

川普總統似乎已經意識到政權更迭策略的複雜性，並提出他的一個退場機制可能是與同一個政權的新領導人打交道。

But once you call for the overthrow of a government, that becomes the definition of success or failure.

但一旦你呼籲推翻一個政府，這就成了成功或失敗的定義。

There is also the legacy of the way that Trump went to war.

還有川普發動戰爭方式的歷史遺留問題。

The United States has a messy and far from perfect record of using force abroad, but

美國在海外使用武力的紀錄混亂且遠非完美，但

in modern times it has usually done so by first defining the broad principles at stake, working with international law and organizations, building a broad coalition of allies, and

在現代，美國通常會先定義重大的原則，與國際法和組織合作，建立廣泛的盟友聯盟，並

consulting with Congress and the American people.

None of this was done in Operation Epic Fury, an apt name.

「史詩級憤怒行動」（Operation Epic Fury）——這個名字很貼切——沒有做到以上任何一點。

This was a decision making process that was fast and furious, as much about a dramatic show of strength as anything else.

這是一個快速且激烈的決策過程，與其說是別的，不如說是展現戲劇性的實力。

As other countries look around and think about what kind of world they are living in, what rules they can rely on, what institutions they look to for stability, they're confronted by the reality that the world's leading nation, the creator of the international rules based system, has said loudly and clearly might makes right.

當其他國家環顧四周，思考他們生活在什麼樣的世界，可以依賴什麼樣的規則，尋求穩定依靠哪些機構時，他們面臨的現實是，世界領袖國家、國際規則體系創立者，已經大聲而清晰地說過，強者為王。

It's a new rule, and one that will gladden the hearts of Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin.

這是一條新規則，而且會讓習近平和普丁心花怒放。

美國中央司令部表示，有三名美軍官兵在「史詩級憤怒行動」中陣亡，另有五人重傷。

service members were killed in action as part of Operation Epic Fury and five more were seriously wounded.

很高興現在加入我們的是詹姆斯·斯塔夫裡迪斯退役海軍上將，他曾是北約最高盟軍指揮官，也是凱旋集團的副主席。

Joining me now is retired Admiral James Stavridis, the former NATO Supreme Allied Commander and a Vice chair at the Carlisle Group.

首先，您對這次軍事行動到目前為止有什麼感到驚訝的地方嗎？

And tell us first what has surprised you so far about the military side of things?

當我們看看現在的狀況，進入第二天、第三天，我很樂意告訴你我感到驚訝的地方，

As you look at where we stand now, Day two, Day three, I'm happy to tell you what surprised me, and

但首先，無論您的政治立場如何，無論您在政治光譜上的哪個位置，或者您對這一連串事件有什麼感受，請花點時間，在心中為這些官兵們祈禱。

But first, whatever your political persuasion, wherever you are on the political spectrum or however you feel about this set of events, please take a moment and hold those service men and women in your thoughts.

Raise a glass to them if that is your tradition.

如果這是您的習慣，就為他們舉杯。

That is 50,000 US sailors, airmen, marines, army, commanded, by the way, by an Admiral, Admiral Brad Cooper of U.S.

這是五萬名美國海軍、空軍、陸戰隊、陸軍的官兵，順帶一提，由美國中央司令部的海軍上將 Brad Cooper 指揮。

And we're just learning of the deaths of three and injuries, sadly.

我們剛得知有三人死亡，以及不幸的受傷消息。

Fareed, what has surprised me and I should get over Being surprised by this, but.

Fareed，讓我感到驚訝的是，雖然我應該習慣了，但我還是感到驚訝。

But is the ruthless lethality, particularly of the Israelis who are able in their side of the strike, to take out the equivalent of President Trump.

但以色列人殘酷的殺傷力，特別是他們能夠在襲擊中，擊殺相當於川普總統的目標。

General Dan Kaine Secretary Pete Hegseth I mean, this really is a decapitation.

General Dan Kaine, Secretary Pete Hegseth，我的意思是，這真的是一次斬首行動。

So that has been a surprise to get in that easily and take out that layer of leadership.

所以能夠如此輕易地進入並剷除這層領導幹部，確實令人驚訝。

然而，現在艱難的部分才要開始。

You know, you point out that this lethality and precision is unusual.

你知道，你指出這種殺傷力和精準度很不尋常。

I was talking to the historian Timothy Naftali, who pointed out the US in the past had tried assassinations, famously of people like Fidel Castro, and

我在跟歷史學家 Timothy Naftali 聊，他指出美國過去曾嘗試暗殺，像是暗殺費德爾·卡斯楚這樣的人物，而且

This is a new feature on the international stage stage.

這是國際舞臺上的一項新特色。

And I suspect that while the United States and Israel are in the forefront, you know, this might become something, I don't want to say common practice, but

我猜，雖然美國和以色列走在前面，但這可能會變成一種，我不想說是普遍的做法，但

the other countries will have precision targeting and drones.

其他國家也會擁有精準打擊能力和無人機。

And I wonder whether this opens up a kind of can of worms in which countries are going to be targeting senior leadership.

我在想，這會不會打開一個潘朵拉的盒子，讓各國開始針對高層領導人進行暗殺。

However, it's always been a feature of war.

What has prevented more of that kind of decapitation, taking out the leader is simply the lack of intelligence, command and control.

什麼阻止了更多這類斬首行動，也就是剷除領導人，是因為缺乏情報、指揮和控制。

But I can remind you In World War II, the United States shot down the aircraft that was carrying the commander in chief of the Japanese armed forces, for example.

但我可以提醒你，在第二次世界大戰中，美國擊落了載運日本武裝部隊總司令的飛機，舉個例子。

we talked about what are the effects of air power and use of precision.

我們討論了空中力量和精準使用所帶來的影響。

I commanded the NATO war in Libya in 2011.

我在2011年指揮了北約在利比亞的戰爭。

We had plenty of opportunities to take out Gaddafi.

我們有很多機會可以剷除格達費。

在當時的情況下，我們選擇不這麼做。

精準人工智慧無人機將會一直存在。

They'll be used against every level of military activity.

它們會被用於對付各級軍事活動。

What do you suspect, Jim, is going to be the next wave of targets?

Jim，你猜測下一波的目標會是什麼？

Because they seem to have gone in, you know, in a fairly dramatic way.

因為它們似乎已經以一種相當戲劇化的方式出現了。

Senior leadership, but also military sites, ballistic missile sites.

高階領導層，還有軍事基地、彈道飛彈基地。

So what do you think the next waves will.

you know, the Admiral is going to say this, I think we'll go against the maritime capability of Iran, which is not insignificant.

你知道，海軍上將會這麼說，我認為我們會對抗伊朗的海上力量，這不容小覷。

And by knocking that out preemptively while it hopefully sits in port, we can take out their minelayers, we can take out their small combatants, we can take out their diesel submarines.

透過在它們還停留在港口時就先發制人地摧毀它們，我們可以清除它們的掃雷艦、小型戰鬥艦、柴電潛艦。

This reduces risk to our own naval forces offshore.

這能降低我們在近海的海軍部隊的風險。

But more importantly, perhaps it allows us to put prevent the full closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

但更重要的是，也許這能讓我們阻止荷莫茲海峽被完全關閉。

That's happened because commercial shipping is making a decision not to go through it.

這是因為商船決定不再通過那裡。

Going after naval targets would be smart.

And then a second level of targeting I think could be applied against mid tier Revolutionary Guard, not so much the conventional military because there is your hope of finding partners for protesters, rebels on the ground.

我認為第二層次的目標可以針對中階的革命衛隊，而不是那麼多傳統軍隊，因為在那裡你才有希望找到地面上的抗議者和叛軍的夥伴。

James Tavridis, always a pleasure to talk to you and we will be following this.

詹姆斯·塔夫裡迪斯，很高興能和你聊，我們會持續關注這件事。

We'll probably be back to you for more in the weeks to come.

未來幾週我們可能還會再請教你。