Name: 德國與中國的互相依賴程度有多高？ | DW 新聞 (How dependent are Germany and China on each other? | DW News)
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Germany's Chancellor Friedrich Matz is holding talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, expected to focus on economic cooperation and security issues.

德國總理 Friedrich Matz 正在北京與中國國家主席習近平舉行會談，預計將聚焦經濟合作與安全議題。

It's Matt's first visit to China since taking office and he's the latest Western leader seeking to reset ties with Beijing.

這是 Matt 上任以來首次訪問中國，他也是最新一位尋求與北京重建關係的西方領導人。

Matt says he wants to deepen economic ties with China, which was Germany's biggest trading partner last year.

Matt 表示，他希望深化與中國的經濟聯繫，中國去年是德國最大的貿易夥伴。

For more background on this, we're now joined by Dr.

關於這方面的更多背景，我們現在請到 Chatham House 智庫中國資深研究員 Yu Jie 博士。

Yu Jie, a senior Research Fellow on China at the Chatham House think tank.

北京剛接待了英國首相 Keir Starmer 和加拿大省長 Mike Carney，抱歉，是 Mark Carney。

Yu Beijing has just hosted UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Canada's Premier Mike Carney, Mark Carney rather.

現在 Friedrich Merz 正與習近平會面。

Now Friedrich Merz is meeting with Xi Jinping.

除了關於烏克蘭和潛在貿易協定的閉門討論之外，這次訪問我們還能實際期待些什麼？

Beyond the closed door discussions on Ukraine and potential trade agreements, what else can we realistically expect from this visit?

What we expected from this visit, I think there are three things that Germany would like to address to China.

我認為德國這次訪問想跟中國提出的，大概有三件事。

Firstly, regarding the substantive trade imbalances between the two countries.

首先，是關於兩國之間的實質性貿易失衡。

Secondly, I think the German companies are still looking for the very much so called level playing field from the Chinese authority and also related to the critical mineral export control that Beijing has imposing towards most of the Western companies over there now.

第二，我認為德國企業還在尋求中國當局所說的公平競爭環境，還有關於北京目前對大多數西方企業實施的關鍵礦產出口管制。

Thirdly, I think Germany also looking trying to find out where exactly China stands regarding Russia's invasion towards Ukraine.

第三，我認為德國也想弄清楚中國在俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭這件事上的立場。

So these are three things but also three very incredibly difficult discussions and conversations that this Chancellor is going to have with President Xi.

所以這三件事，也是這位總理將與習近平主席進行的三場非常艱難的討論和對話。

Now on the other hand, what is China hoping to gain from Matt's visit?

那麼另一方面，中國希望從馬特的訪問中獲得什麼呢？

Well, obviously I think we're now in the cusp of these.

嗯，顯然我認為我們現在正處於這個關鍵時刻。

The latest the five years plan introduced by the Chinese Commerce Party next month and also equally many of those Chinese companies looking for market just beyond the Chinese domestic market.

中國共產黨下個月將推出最新的五年計畫，同時也有許多中國企業正在尋找中國國內市場以外的市場。

So I think for many Chinese companies they still consider Germany as being one of the main destination to putting their investments in and whether this will enable them to looking for alternative places selling their items or they're looking for the alternative return on investment.

所以我想，對許多中國企業來說，他們仍然認為德國是他們投資的主要目的地之一，而這是否能讓他們尋找銷售商品的替代地點，或是尋找替代的投資回報。

So I think that's mostly come from the wishes from the Chinese company is the alternative market.

所以我想這主要來自中國企業對替代市場的期望。

I think for the Chinese government what they're really interested in is really to somehow draw this close partners with many U.S.

我想，對中國政府來說，他們真正感興趣的是，如何與許多美國盟友，無論是歐洲還是亞洲的盟友，建立更緊密的夥伴關係，讓中國看起來像是現有多邊貿易體系的捍衛者。

allies with both in Europe but also Asia looks like as if it's a defender for the existing multilateral trading system.

那麼，在依賴程度上，誰對誰的依賴更大呢？

Now in terms of balance, who is more dependent on whom here?

我想，顯然，如果你看看貿易數據，德國似乎對中國和中國市場的依賴更大。

I think obviously really if you look into the trade figure, it seems that Germany is more dependent on China and Chinese market.

但我想另一方面，正如我剛才說的，鑑於中國目前國內經濟放緩，許多中國企業正在尋找替代目的地，他們認為德國是首選之地，英國也是，同時還有許多其他歐洲國家。

But I think on the other hand as of what I said earlier, given the current domestic economic slowdown within China, many Chinese companies looking for the alternative destinations and they consider Germany as the place to be so as to UK so as to many other European countries at the same time.

所以我想，一方面，德國對中國有非常嚴重的依賴，但同樣地，我認為中國在市場准入方面也依賴德國。

So I think yes on the one hand we have that very heavy dependence from Germany towards China but equally I think China also depended on Germany in terms of market access as well.

說到依賴，德國過去非常非常長時間以來，在能源供應上高度依賴俄羅斯天然氣。

Talking about dependence, Germany was very, very long highly dependent on Russian gas for its energy supply.

On security it was and still is very dependent on the US Is there a danger that Germany could be sleepwalking into a new dependency on trade with China?

在安全方面，德國過去和現在都非常依賴美國，德國會不會在不知不覺中陷入對中國貿易的新依賴呢？

Well, I think Germany, the current government also the previous government has already discussed extensively regarding the so called de risking strategy.

嗯，我認為德國，現任政府和前任政府都已經廣泛討論過所謂的「去風險」策略。

Now it's only a matter of how do you put this is so called de risking strategy in practice.

現在的問題只是，要如何將這個所謂的「去風險」策略付諸實踐。

That is to say the debate cannot only take place at the level among the political elites in sits in Berlin, but

也就是說，這場辯論不能只在柏林的政治菁英之間進行，

this debate will perhaps will have to also take place among the voters in large part of Germany to what extent that engagements with China perhaps bring both benefit and cost and what are they?

這場辯論或許也必須在德國大部分的選民之間展開，探討與中國的互動在多大程度上可能帶來好處和壞處，以及它們是什麼？

And there's something that I believe the Chancellor needs to communicate clear enough to his own voters there.

我認為總理需要向德國選民清楚地傳達這一點。

Dr. Yuji there with Chatham House in London.

倫敦查塔姆研究所的 Yuji 博士。

Thank you very much for sharing your expertise with us.

非常感謝您與我們分享您的專業知識。

And let's get more now on some of the background behind these relations and this meeting.

讓我們來深入瞭解這些關係和這次會面的更多背景。

DWU political correspondent Bernd Riegert is joining us now from Berlin.

DWU 政治記者 Bernd Riegert 現在從柏林加入我們。

So what do you think is the Chancellor's main goal on this trip?

所以您認為總理這次出訪的主要目標是什麼？

The Chancellor has to walk a very fine line to keep a balance between the German interests, especially the economic interest.

總理必須走一條非常微妙的路線，以在德國的利益，特別是經濟利益之間取得平衡。

He has to embrace the leadership, if you will, to find solutions for these business interests because Germany is very much dependent on China.

他必須擁抱領導地位，如果您願意這麼說的話，為這些商業利益尋找解決方案，因為德國非常依賴中國。

Now China is the biggest trading partner and on the other hand he has to keep a political distance from the leadership in China.

現在中國是最大的貿易夥伴，另一方面，他必須與中國領導層保持政治距離。

After all the this is a Communist Party state just run by one party, an autocratic leader.

畢竟，這是一個由單一政黨運作的共產黨國家，一位獨裁領導人。

Human rights are a concern and China is supporting Russia in its war against Ukraine.

人權是一個令人擔憂的問題，中國正在支持俄羅斯對烏克蘭的戰爭。

He has to find distance at the one side and partnership at the other side.

他一方面要保持距離，另一方面要尋求夥伴關係。

And Madz himself, the Chancellor strike stressed in a statement in Beijing that this partnership is difficult, has to be fair and he wants to to boost it and to maintain the good ties that are there.

而總理本人，總理在中國的聲明中強調，這種夥伴關係是困難的，必須是公平的，他希望能夠加強它並維持現有的良好關係。

But on the other hand he also wants to urge China to change its policies in some fields and what tools does he have at his disposal in order to do that?

不過另一方面，他也想敦促中國在某些領域改變政策，他有哪些工具可以做到這一點？

Well, the leverage is limited, I would say, because the German economy and German companies are quite dependent on many things now from China when it comes to raw earth, for example, or other supply chains, computer ships, all these things.

嗯，籌碼有限，我認為，因為德國經濟和德國企業現在在很多方面都相當依賴中國，像是稀土，或是其他供應鏈、電腦晶片，所有這些東西。

But China has a leading position in the world and this cannot be replaced by German businesses very easily.

但中國在全球處於領先地位，德國企業很難輕易取代這一點。

German companies are setting up factories in China to produce in China because it's just cheaper there.

德國企業正在中國設廠，因為那裡生產成本比較便宜。

On the other hand, the Chancellor will argue that the competition is not fair because China is subsidizing its companies.

另一方面，總理會主張競爭並不公平，因為中國正在補貼自己的企業。

It has a very low valued currency that makes it possible to flood Europe and Germany with very cheap goods from China.

它還有一個幣值被嚴重低估的貨幣，這使得中國能夠將非常便宜的商品傾銷到歐洲和德國。

But the leverage is more on the Chinese side because Germany and also other EU countries are more or less dependent on on many things that are coming from China.

但籌碼更多是在中國那邊，因為德國以及其他歐盟國家或多或少都依賴中國來的許多東西。

And the Chancellor has also to orchestrate his policies in in a European formation.

總理也必須在歐洲的框架下協調他的政策。

The French President, Emmanuel Macron was already there and also the British Prime Minister Starmer.

法國總統馬克宏，還有英國首相施泰納都在那裡。

They all have their own interests, but they don't have a real economic leverage.

他們都有各自的利益，但沒有真正的經濟籌碼。

And when it comes to the political side, there is less leverage than you could expect.

而在政治層面，籌碼比你預期的還要少。

The Chinese are not impressed by German or European demands to cut ties with Russia.

中國當局並不理會德國或歐洲要求與俄羅斯斷絕關係的要求。

And so it's very difficult for the Chancellor to actually achieve something on the ground.

所以總理實際上很難在當地取得任何成果。