Name: 瑞·達裡歐最終警告：美國38兆美元金融重置已啟動！快這樣做！ (“America’s $38 Trillion Financial Reset Has Begun - Do This Now!” Ray Dalio’s Final Warning)
Uploaded: 2026-02-18T21:43:25.000Z
Duration: 16 min 9 s

The US Federal budget is on an unsustainable path.

美國聯邦預算正走在一條不可持續的道路上。

情態副詞

We're going to be broke really quickly unless we get serious about dealing with our spending issues.

除非我們認真處理我們的支出問題，否則我們很快就會破產。

We have an immediate issue in the next three years.

我們在未來三年內有一個迫在眉睫的問題。

Back in 2022, the billionaire Ray Dalio posted a 43 minute long video predicting the impending downfall of every major economy as we know, based on predictable cycles that repeat throughout history without fail.

回顧 2022 年，億萬富翁 Ray Dalio 發布了一段長達 43 分鐘的影片，預測我們所知的每個主要經濟體即將到來的衰落，這是基於在歷史上不斷重複且從未失準的可預測週期。

Well, sure enough, looking back, a lot of what he predicted wound up coming true.

嗯，果然，回頭看，他預測的很多事情都成真了。

Inflation surged, asset prices exploded, precious metals at all time highs, and global tensions escalated.

通膨飆升，資產價格飆升，貴金屬創下歷史新高，全球緊張局勢升級。

All signals that a new world order isn't coming.

所有跡象都顯示新的世界秩序並未到來。

As of a few days ago, Ray Dalio just posted that the world order has officially broken down.

幾天前，Ray Dalio 發文表示，世界秩序已經正式崩潰。

Meaning we are about to enter the last and final debt cycle.

這意味著我們即將進入最後一個債務週期。

The the part where consequences become irreversible and most people have no idea what comes next.

也就是後果變得不可逆轉，而大多數人卻不知道接下來會發生什麼的階段。

That's why we need to talk about exactly what he predicts is about to happen.

這就是為什麼我們要討論他精確預測即將發生的事情。

Why these cycles are completely predictable if you know what to look for and how you could best prepare going forward.

為什麼這些週期如果知道要找什麼以及如何能最好地為未來做準備，是可以完全預測的。

Because like it or not, financial shifts don't hurt the people who know what's coming.

因為，不管你喜不喜歡，財務轉變不會傷害那些知道會發生什麼的人。

They hurt the people who assume that nothing changes.

它們傷害的是那些認為一切都不會改變的人。

Although, before we start, if you appreciate videos like this that I am filming literally on the road at a random Airbnb to get this out in time, it would mean the world to me if you hit hit the like button and subscribe.

不過，在我們開始之前，如果你喜歡我這樣邊旅行邊在隨機的 Airbnb 拍攝影片，只為了準時發布，那請幫我按個讚並訂閱，我會非常感激。

And as a thank you for doing that, here's a picture of a stingray.

為了感謝你這麼做，這裡有一張魟魚的照片。

So thanks so much and also a big thank you to Gemini for sponsoring this video.

所以非常感謝你，也要特別感謝 Gemini 贊助這支影片。

All right, so in terms of where to start and how this is likely going to end, it's important to understand the six economic cycles.

好了，關於從哪裡開始以及這很可能會如何結束，瞭解這六個經濟週期非常重要。

See, according to Ray Dalio, there's a predictable pattern that all economies consistently go through.

你看，根據 Ray Dalio 的說法，所有經濟體都會經歷一個可預測的模式。

He believes it's only a matter of time until eventually this all plays out.

他認為這只是時間問題，遲早會發生。

And it begins with first and a new world order begins.

然後，這一切就會開始，一個新的世界秩序也隨之誕生。

This usually comes after a major crisis or conflict resets the entire system.

這通常發生在重大危機或衝突重置整個系統之後。

Think Post World War II, when the US dollar became the world's reserve currency and global cooperation increased.

想想二戰後，美元成為世界儲備貨幣，全球合作也隨之增加。

This all leads to the next step, the growth phase.

這一切都導向下一步，也就是成長階段。

Essentially, opportunities rise, wealth is created Quickly and optimism is high.

基本上，機會湧現，財富快速累積，大家都很樂觀。

This results in third peak prosperity and power.

這就導致了第三個階段：巔峰時期的繁榮與權力。

At this point, the country's currency becomes the global reserve.

此時，這個國家的貨幣成為全球儲備貨幣。

Financial markets lead the world, military budgets increase and living standards are high.

金融市場引領世界，軍費預算增加，生活水準也相當高。

But beneath the surface, debt begins to rise.

但表面之下，債務開始悄悄累積。

All of a sudden, financial speculation outpaces financial productivity.

突然間，金融投機超越了金融生產力。

And as you would expect, this leads to fourth, financial imbalances.

就像你預期的那樣，這就導致了第四個階段：財務失衡。

Pretty soon, debt grows faster than income, asset bubbles form, inequality intensifies, and political polarization increases.

很快地，債務的增長速度快過收入，資產保麗龍形成，不平等加劇，政治兩極分化也隨之增加。

On top of that, trust in institutions decline substantially and people begin to feel like the system is rigged against them instead of working for them.

更糟的是，人們對機構的信任大幅下降，大家開始覺得這個體系似乎是為了對抗他們而設計，而不是為他們服務。

This means the only outcome is fifth, conflict and disorder.

這意味著唯一的結果就是第五個階段：衝突與混亂。

This means that social unrest becomes a lot more common.

這意味著社會動盪變得更加頻繁。

At the same time, rival powers challenge the dominant nation, trade pressures escalate, money printing increases, and

同時，競爭對手挑戰主導國家，貿易壓力升級，印鈔增加，

For context, this is the point that Ray Dalio last warned us back in 2022.

作為參考，這就是 Ray Dalio 在 2022 年最後一次警告我們的時刻。

And now he argues that we are entering the sixth and final phase before the economy resets.

而現在他認為，在經濟重置前，我們會進入第六個也是最後一個階段。

新世界秩序 最終，這發生在債務、印鈔、不平等和政治動盪的壓力達到無法再持續的地步時。

The New World Order Ultimately, this happens when the stress of debt, money printing, inequality and political unrest gets to a point that can no longer be sustained.

當這種情況發生時，政府被迫進行重組。

When this occurs, governments are forced to restructure.

債務貨幣可能會貶值以減輕負擔。

Debt currencies might be devalued to reduce the burden.

財富分配政策經常出現，全球權力平衡也可能開始轉移。

Wealth distribution policies often emerge and the global balance of power can begin to shift.

現在，有時候這種轉變可以透過政策或改革來管理，但

Now, sometimes this transition can be managed through policy or reform, but

無論如何，舊系統將不再像以前那樣運作，新系統將取而代之。

either way, the old system stops functioning the way it once did and a new system takes its place.

然後，這個週期將從第一步再次開始重複。

Then the cycle repeats itself once again from step one.

However, if we zoom out and take a look at exactly what's happening today, the reality is that not all of these happen at the exact same time.

不過，如果我們放大來看今天發生的事，現實是這些情況並不會同時發生。

And in terms of what Ray Dalio says is most likely going to happen next, we have to take a look at the five types of global conflict.

而就 Ray Dalio 所說，接下來最有可能發生的事，我們要來看全球衝突的五種類型。

See the way he sees it, when the balance of global powers begins to shift, countries don't jump straight into war.

你看他怎麼看，當全球權力平衡開始轉移時，國家不會直接進入戰爭。

Instead, they begin to escalate in several areas that most people don't even realize.

取而代之的是，他們會在幾個大多數人甚至沒意識到的領域開始升級。

And the first line of defense is often trade and economic wars.

而第一道防線通常是貿易和經濟戰。

This is when countries try to weaken each other through tariffs, export restrictions and supply chain pressure.

這就是國家試圖透過關稅、出口限制和供應鏈壓力來削弱彼此。

So instead of direct face to face conflict, they make it more expensive to do business, restrict key goods, and

所以，不是直接面對面的衝突，而是讓做生意變得更貴，限制關鍵商品，以及

attempt to damage the other country's economy from the outside in.

That also leads us to second technology wars.

這也引導我們到第二種科技戰。

The truth is, whoever controls AI, semiconductors and energy technology has a huge, huge advantage.

事實是，誰掌握了 AI、半導體和能源技術，誰就擁有巨大的優勢。

Which is why the US is now blocking China's access to advanced chips, while China pushes ahead with their own programs.

這也是為什麼美國現在正在阻擋中國取得先進晶片，而中國則持續推進自己的計畫。

Like even today, those export bans expanded even further, making it a full on zero sum game for innovation dominance.

就像今天，這些出口禁令擴大了更多，讓這場為了創新主導權的競爭變成完全的零和遊戲。

That's also leading to four we have capital wars.

這也引導我們到第四種資本戰爭。

This one is basically just financial warfare.

Countries use sanctions, freeze assets and cut off banking to hopefully restrict the other side's ability to do business.

各國利用制裁、凍結資產和切斷銀行業務，希望能限制對方的做生意能力。

This was seen in 2022 when Russia had their reserves frozen.

這在 2022 年俄羅斯資產被凍結時就已經看到了。

And Ray Dalio specifically flagged this, noting that governments have historically used asset freezes and embargoes well before any fighting actually takes place.

而 Ray Dalio 特別指出了這一點，他提到各國政府在實際開戰前，早就已經使用凍結資產和禁運的手段了。

Fourth, on top of that, we could also see geopolitical wars.

第四，在此之上，我們也可能看到地緣政治戰爭。

These are battles over influence, alliances and important locations around the world.

這些是關於影響力、聯盟和世界各地重要地點的戰鬥。

So instead of direct combat, countries compete through partnerships, defense agreements and diplomacy to gain control over certain regions or major trade routes.

所以，國家之間不是直接作戰，而是透過夥伴關係、國防協議和外交手段來競爭，以爭取對特定區域或主要貿易路線的控制權。

Kind of like what was happening throughout Greenland recently.

就像最近格陵蘭發生的事情一樣。

And finally, number five, we have the last resort, and that would be military wars.

最後，第五點，我們還有最後的手段，那就是軍事戰爭。

Historically, by the time tensions reach this stage, the economic, political and technological conflicts have been going on for quite some time.

歷史上，到了這個階段，經濟、政治和科技的衝突已經持續了一段時間。

And at this point, both countries face an impossible choice.

這時候，兩國都面臨一個不可能的選擇。

Fight and risk enormous cost or back down and appear weak.

要麼開戰，承擔巨大的代價；要麼退縮，顯得軟弱。

Now, I will say Ray Dalio's point isn't that all of this necessarily leads to war.

我得說，Ray Dalio 的觀點並不是說這一切一定會導致戰爭。

But it is to say that when the global powers begin to shift, competition between countries begins to increase.

但他的意思是，當全球大國開始轉變時，國家之間的競爭就會增加。

And if you zoom out, you could see that this has been going on for quite some time before most people even recognize what's going on.

如果你拉遠來看，你會發現這在大多數人意識到之前，其實已經持續了一段時間了。

So in terms of what to expect, what he says will inevitably come next and the blueprint that you would be able to use to come out ahead.

所以，關於該期待什麼，他認為接下來不可避免會發生什麼，以及你能用來脫穎而出的藍圖。

Because if history is any guide, by the time it feels obvious, it's already too late.

因為如果歷史有任何指引，當你覺得明顯時，就已經太遲了。

While we're on the topic, here's what I've noticed.

既然我們談到這個話題，這是我觀察到的。

When the market looks uncertain, people lose jobs, volatility spikes, and everything reprices to a new normal.

當市場看起來不確定時，人們會失業，波動性飆升，一切都會重新定價到一個新的常態。

That's why I place such a big emphasis lately on diversification.

這就是為什麼我最近非常強調分散投資。

So instead of just being all in stocks or real estate or cash, I'm able to get a bit of everything.

所以，與其全部投入股票、房地產或現金，我能夠擁有一點點各種資產。

And that's actually where our sponsor, the Gemini credit card, comes in to help.

這也是我們的贊助商 Gemini 信用卡能派上用場的地方。

This is really interesting because instead of earning airline points that you forget about or credit card points that you barely use, this allows you to earn cryptocurrency back on everyday purchases.

這真的很有趣，因為它不像賺取你會忘記的航空里程或你幾乎用不到的信用卡點數，它讓你可以在日常消費中賺取加密貨幣回饋。

So whenever I'm out at restaurants buying groceries or filling up the gas tank, I'm able to get exposure to a completely different asset class like Bitcoin, or in this case, you get to earn up to 4% back on transportation, 3% on dining, 2% on groceries, and

所以，無論我是在餐廳吃飯、買雜貨，還是加滿油箱，我都能接觸到像比特幣這樣完全不同的資產類別，或者在這裡，你可以獲得高達 4% 的交通費用回饋、3% 的餐飲回饋、2% 的雜貨回饋，以及

1% on everything else with no annual fee.

1% 的其他所有消費回饋，而且沒有年費。

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瑞·達裡歐最終警告：美國38兆美元金融重置已啟動！快這樣做！ (“America’s $38 Trillion Financial Reset Has Begun - Do This Now!” Ray Dalio’s Final Warning)

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