Name: 法國為何準備讓美國經濟崩潰？！ (Why France is Preparing To Crash The US Economy)
Uploaded: 2026-02-18T18:25:38.000Z
Duration: 9 min 37 s

情態副詞

French economy is on the brink of catastrophe and it's preparing to take down with it the rest of the global economy, especially the United States.

法國經濟瀕臨災難，並準備將全球經濟，特別是美國一同拖垮。

轉承詞

France is mathematically headed into bankruptcy because over the last 25 years, France did everything possible to destroy its own economy.

法國在數學上正走向破產，因為過去25年來，法國做了所有可能的事來摧毀自己的經濟。

基礎被動語態

So if it's not going to take drastic measures today, France is done.

所以如果今天不採取大刀闊斧的措施，法國就完了。

And it's going to trigger the 2008 style financial crisis that is going to wipe out the US Economy.

這將會引發2008年那種會摧毀美國經濟的金融危機。

In this video, I will show you exactly what what is wrong with the French economy and why the United States should be worried.

這部影片，我會詳細告訴你法國經濟到底哪裡出了問題，以及為什麼美國應該感到擔憂。

The French government has one of the largest welfare programs in the world.

法國政府擁有世界上最大的福利計畫之一。

In total, the government will spend this year about 1.7 trillion euros.

總計，政府今年將花費大約1.7兆歐元。

And 90% of those spendings are going to be mandatory, such as pensions, health care and the military.

其中90%的支出將是強制性的，例如終身俸、醫療保健和軍隊。

So the French government cannot easily cut these spendings.

所以法國政府無法輕易削減這些支出。

And that is the vast majority of the spending by the government.

The the other 10% of the spendings are discretionary, such as the infrastructure projects.

另外10%的支出是酌情性的，像是基礎建設項目。

And that's why France doesn't actually build massive infrastructure projects, because that is the only place where the French government can save some money.

這也是為什麼法國不會真的蓋大型基礎建設項目，因為那是法國政府唯一能省錢的地方。

If you actually want to solve the debt problem, you should start cutting healthcare spending and pensions.

如果你真的想解決債務問題，你就該開始削減醫療保健和終身俸的支出。

If you are working for the French government, there is no way the government is going to fire you unless there's like a good reason to do so.

如果你是為法國政府工作，政府絕對不會解僱你，除非有非常正當的理由。

Which means that the French government is huge and it spends a lot of money to maintain so many civil servants.

這意味著法國政府規模龐大，花了很多錢來維持這麼多公務員。

And at the same time, it can't possibly cut 90% of its spendings.

同時，它又不可能削減90%的支出。

And here's what really destroyed the French economy over the last 25 years.

而這才是過去25年來真正摧毀法國經濟的關鍵。

Every single time the French economy faced a crisis, such as in 2008 or the pandemic of 2020, the government should have actually taken measures to cut spending to be able to pay those debts.

每次法國經濟面臨危機，像是2008年或2020年的疫情，政府其實都應該採取措施削減開支，才能償還那些債務。

When you are in cr, the first thing you would do is that you would borrow money.

當你陷入困境時，你會做的第一件事就是借錢。

And because interest rates over the last 25 years has been ultra low, French politicians, instead of actually changing the laws and cutting healthcare spendings, pension spendings or the military spendings, they avoided the legal problems and simply borrowed money to close the budget gap.

而且由於過去25年的利率一直極低，法國政客們沒有真正修改法律並削減醫療保健、終身俸或軍隊的開支，他們迴避了法律問題，只是借錢來填補預算赤字。

But as they say, there is no such thing as a free lunch.

但就像大家說的，天下沒有免費的午餐。

If you borrowed money, you have to pay that money back.

如果你借了錢，你就必須還錢。

And when you solve every single problem that you have with a credit card, your entire debt is going to balloon just like in the case of France, when The debt to GDP ratio has increased from 60% to 120% over the last 25 years.

當你用信用卡解決所有問題時，你的總債務就會像法國一樣膨脹，法國的債務對GDP比率在過去25年間從60%增加到120%。

And here is the problem with the French debt.

而這就是法國債務的問題所在。

The French economy grows by 1% while interest payments on the French debt is 2.5%.

法國經濟成長1%，但法國債務的利息支付卻是2.5%。

So interest payments are growing 2.5 times faster than the size of the French GDP.

所以利息支付的增長速度是法國GDP規模的2.5倍。

You don't have to be a genius to understand that when your debt is growing two and a half times times faster than your income, it is going to be a lot more difficult to pay that debt.

你不需要是天才，就能明白當你的債務增長速度是收入的兩倍半時，還債會變得非常困難。

And here's what makes the situation a lot worse.

Inflation will keep increasing mandatory spending.

Since you cannot possibly change your mandatory spending, which is 90% of your entire spending every single year there is inflation.

因為你不可能改變你每年90%的總支出，通膨會讓這筆錢不斷增加。

So you have to increase the pensions and you have to spend more on maintaining the exact same healthcare.

所以你必須增加終身俸，並且要花更多錢來維持相同的醫療保健。

The total French debt is about $4 trillion.

And 25% of that is owned by the French Central Bank.

其中有25%是法國中央銀行持有的。

The French Central bank is part of the European Central Bank.

法國中央銀行是歐洲中央銀行的一部分。

Because France uses euro as its currency.

15% of the French debt is owned by the French pensions and just 7% by French banks and French citizens.

法國債務的15%由法國的終身俸持有，只有7%由法國銀行和法國公民持有。

Seems like French people don't have much faith in their own government because they don't even invest in their own local government.

看來法國人對自己的政府沒什麼信心，因為他們甚至不投資自己的地方政府。

53% of the French debt is owned by foreign investors.

法國債務的53%由外國投資者持有。

So it's not being owned by the French people, but rather investors who are outside of France.

所以這並不是法國人民持有的，而是法國以外的投資者持有的。

And when foreign investors look at your debt and they realize that it is a problem, they invested in your debt because they want to make money.

當外國投資者看到你的債務並意識到這是一個問題時，他們投資你的債務是因為他們想賺錢。

The moment there is something wrong with your country, with your economy, and

一旦你的國家、你的經濟出現問題，

they start believing that France is not going to be able to pay back its debts, what do you think they are going to do?

他們就會開始覺得法國還不起債務，你覺得他們會怎麼做？

They will instantly start selling their debts.

And that is the biggest threat that France is facing facing right now.

這就是法國目前面臨的最大威脅。

And unlike the United States that has the world's largest debt, 75% of the US debt is owned by the US citizens.

跟美國不同，美國擁有全球最大的債務，但75%的美國債務是由美國公民持有的。

If America runs into a problem where it won't be able to pay back its debts, the Federal Reserve can simply intervene and do massive quantitative easing and start massively buying all of that debt in the open market.

如果美國遇到還不起債務的問題，聯準會可以介入，進行大規模的量化寬鬆，並在公開市場上大量收購這些債務。

But that's not an option that France has because France does not have control over its own local currency.

但法國沒有這個選項，因為法國無法掌控自己的在地貨幣。

France uses the euro, a currency that is being used by another 20 other nations in the European Union.

法國使用的是歐元，歐元還有其他20個歐盟國家也在使用。

So if you want the European Central bank to buy your currency, then you need the approval of other European countries.

所以，如果你希望歐洲央行收購你的貨幣，你就需要獲得其他歐洲國家的同意。

Do you think Germans, Italians, Greek and other 20 other nations are simply going to allow the European Central bank to buy trillions of dollars of French debt that is going to cause inflation across the entire European Union?

你認為德國人、義大利人、希臘人以及其他20個國家會輕易同意歐洲央行收購數兆歐元的法國債務，這將導致整個歐盟通膨嗎？

So do you think they want to subsidize the French pensions?

所以你認為他們想補貼法國的終身俸嗎？

Do you think other European countries want to subsidize the French healthcare?

你認為其他歐洲國家想補貼法國的醫療保健嗎？

That is not an option that is on the table, but

那個選項並不在考慮之列，但是

that's an option that countries such as the United States has or Japan.

美國或日本這些國家卻有這樣的選項。

Japan has a debt that is twice bigger than the French debt, but

日本的債務是法國債務的兩倍大，但是

it's not a problem because 88% of that debt is being owned by the Japanese Central Bank.

這不成問題，因為其中88%的債務由日本央行持有。

The Japanese Central bank is part of the government in Japan.

日本央行是日本政府的一部分。

So it's not going to simply sell that debt.

所以它不會輕易賣掉那些債務。

And it's not there to make a profit out of the government of Japan.

而且它也不是為了從日本政府身上賺取利潤。

It is there to stabilize the Japanese economy.

它的存在是為了穩定日本的經濟。

那麼，有哪些可能的解決方案呢？

First of all, it can simply cut spending, but that is going to cause social unrest.

首先，它可以單純地削減開支，但這將會引發社會動盪。

Do you think there is a French politician that is going to say that, listen guys, our predecessors completely screwed our economy and it's time to pay back our debts.

你覺得會有哪個法國政客會說，聽著各位，我們的前輩把我們的經濟搞得一團糟，現在是時候償還債務了。

So we are going to cut the pensions by 20%, we are going to cut healthcare by 50% in the next five to 10 years.

所以，我們要在未來五到十年內，削減20%的終身俸，削減50%的醫療保健。

I think that kind of news is going to create a civil war in France.

我認為那樣的消息會在法國引發內戰。

Because if there is even a slightly political instability in France, sudden see thousands of people marching in the streets, literally just breaking everything in the streets, that kind of news is going to wipe out and will create huge social unrest.

因為如果法國出現一點點政治不穩定，突然看到成千上萬的人走上街頭， literalmente 地砸爛街上的所有東西，那樣的消息會讓人們崩潰，並引發巨大的社會動盪。

That's why I don't think there is like a French politician that can take that responsibility.

這就是為什麼我不認為有哪個法國政客能承擔那樣的責任。

The second solution is to default on your loan.

You will basically tell investors, listen, I don't have money, I can't pay you back.

你基本上會告訴投資人，聽著，我沒錢了，還不起你們。

But that's also not an option that France can take because France issues its debt in euro, since it uses the euro.

但這也不是法國可以採取的選項，因為法國發行的債務是歐元，因為它使用歐元。

And if it's going to default on a European bonds, then all other European bonds across all other European countries are going to lose credibility.

如果它要違約歐洲債券，那麼歐洲其他所有國家的歐洲債券都會失去信譽。

So investors won't simply just sell the French debt, but

所以投資人不會只賣掉法國的債務，而是

rather they will start selling all other bonds that are denominated in Euro.

會開始賣掉所有以歐元計價的其他債券。

That is basically going to be a suicide for euro.

And if Euro is going to default, that could potentially put an end to the European Union.

如果歐元要違約，那可能會終結歐洲聯盟。

But why is that a problem to the United States?

The French debt mostly is being owned by European countries, Middle Eastern countries and Asian countries.

法國債務大部分由歐洲國家、中東國家和亞洲國家持有。

Almost all of that debt is being insured by American banks such as Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Citi.

這些債務幾乎全由高盛、摩根大通、花旗等美國銀行承保。

So if France is going to default on its loans, American banks suddenly will have to pay trillions of dollars to other European countries and Middle Eastern countries who used to invest in the French debt.

所以如果法國要違約，美國銀行突然間就得賠償那些曾經投資法國債務的歐洲和中東國家數兆美元。

It can easily bankrupt a lot of American banks.

這很容易讓許多美國銀行破產。

And the exact same thing that happened back in 2008.

這跟 2008 年發生的事一模一樣。

If you go back to 2008, it was a housing crisis.

回顧 2008 年，那是一場房市危機。

But why did the government suddenly bail out the American banks?

但政府為什麼突然要紓困美國銀行呢？

The reality is that American banks sold insurance on houses because they thought that house prices are never going to collapse.

事實是，美國銀行賣了房屋保險，因為他們認為房價永遠不會崩盤。

But the moment house prices collapsed, suddenly American banks, who sold so many derivatives, so many insurances on houses, found themselves making trillions of dollars in losses.

但房價一崩盤，賣了這麼多衍生性金融商品、這麼多房屋保險的美國銀行，突然發現自己虧損了數兆美元。

Which is why the American government had to step in and bail out the American banks.

這就是為什麼美國政府必須介入，紓困美國銀行。