Name: 伊朗領導人為何面臨危險時刻？ (Why Iran’s Leaders Face a Dangerous Moment)
Uploaded: 2026-02-15T21:57:01.000Z
Duration: 11 min 57 s

Violence on the streets, threats from abroad.

The Islamic Republic of Iran is being squeezed.

伊朗伊斯蘭共和國正遭受擠壓。

The Iranian regime is running out of options and the people are running out of patience.

伊朗政權選擇不多，人民也失去耐心。

The Islamic Republic is out of tools other than force.

伊斯蘭共和國除了武力已無其他手段。

Regimes that rely entirely on force, they can last for quite some time, but

完全依賴武力的政權，或許能維持一段時間，但

it really does change the nature of their relationship with the population that they govern.

這確實會改變他們與所統治人口的關係性質。

The more people you kill, the more resentment there is.

Some estimates put that death toll possibly in the tens of thousands.

有些估計死亡人數可能高達數萬人。

The other thing that makes these protests different is that they had initially an economic trigger, but

讓這些抗議活動與眾不同的另一點是，它們最初是由經濟因素引發，但

There's a real sense of hopelessness in Iran right now.

現在的伊朗，真的讓人感到很絕望。

This time, people had simply had enough and they wanted the regime gone.

這一次，人民真的受夠了，他們想要這個政權下臺。

It's facing a US president unlike any US president that it's had to face in its 47 year.

這一次，他們面對的美國總統，跟過去47年來遇到的任何一位都不同。

President Trump has warned Iran to make a nuclear deal with the US or face military strikes.

川普總統警告伊朗，要跟美國達成核子協議，否則就要面臨軍事打擊。

They should want to make a deal and know the consequences if they don't.

他們應該想要達成協議，並且知道如果不達成協議會有什麼後果。

Iran says it has agreed with the US to continue talks to de escalate and avoid a military confrontation.

伊朗表示，已經同意美國繼續進行談判，以緩和局勢並避免軍事對抗。

Talks are ongoing, but there's little doubt that the government has been weakened.

談判仍在進行中，但毫無疑問，政府已經被削弱了。

These protests will keep coming up and the regime will keep having to put them down by force.

這些抗議活動會不斷出現，而這個政權也將持續被迫以武力鎮壓。

And at some point, you may see an end to the republic as we know it.

總有一天，我們可能會看到這個共和國走向終結。

So how did Iran get here and what comes next for its leaders and the millions of Iranians hoping for change?

那麼，伊朗是怎麼走到這一步的？接下來，他們的領導人和數百萬期盼改變的伊朗人民，又會面臨什麼呢？

At the head of the theocracy, you have the Supreme Leader.

在這個神權政治的頂端，有最高領袖。

He isn't the only decision maker, but he's the final decision maker.

他不是唯一的決策者，但他擁有最終決定權。

You actually have quite a lot of debate within the Islamic Republic between the different political factions.

在伊朗伊斯蘭共和國內，不同的政治派系之間其實有很多辯論。

I think the government, right, faces a perfect storm.

我認為政府正面臨著完美的風暴。

They have a great many problems, from the political to the serious economic issues that they face.

他們面臨著許多問題，從政治到嚴重的經濟問題。

The economy has been in a bad way for a long time.

There have been sanctions and policies that have caused inflation for many years.

多年來，制裁和政策導致了通貨膨脹。

For more than four decades, Iran's standoff with the west has meant heavy sanctions on almost every aspect of its economy.

四十多年來，伊朗與西方的對峙意味著其幾乎所有經濟面向都面臨嚴厲的制裁。

Double digit inflation in Iran is not unusual.

伊朗兩位數的通貨膨脹並不罕見。

It's been a kind of chronic hallmark of the economy for some time.

這已經是經濟長期以來的一種慢性標誌。

The real is compounding inflationary pressures.

裡亞爾加劇了通貨膨脹的壓力。

The ongoing disparity came to a head in December 2025 when one US dollar became worth almost 1.5 million rials.

這種持續的差距在2025年12月達到頂點，當時一美元的價值接近150萬裡亞爾。

That's devastated the spending power of ordinary Iranians.

這嚴重摧毀了普通伊朗人的購買力。

The rial has declined in value more than 98% since 2018.

自2018年以來，裡亞爾的價值已經下跌超過98%。

People who considered themselves middle class, they now find themselves poor.

那些認為自己是中產階級的人，現在發現自己變得貧窮。

And the regime has proved consistently unable to reverse this.

而且這個政權一直無法扭轉這個局面。

Falling oil revenue is worsening the situation.

石油收入下降讓情況變得更糟。

Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell to around $60 a barrel in 2025.

全球基準的布蘭特原油在2025年跌至每桶約60美元。

they're still almost $100 below what the International Monetary Fund says Iran's government would need to break even.

這仍然比國際貨幣基金組織說伊朗政府需要損益兩平的數字低了將近100美元。

All of these oil producing countries look closely at the extent to which oil is able to cover their budget allocations.

所有這些產油國都會密切關注石油能夠覆蓋他們預算分配的程度。

There is already a problem with cheap oil in the market that often drives concerns about budget deficits.

市場上已經存在廉價石油的問題，這經常引起對預算赤字的擔憂。

And Iran has that problem with or without sanctions, because under sanctions, it can still sell oil, and

伊朗無論有沒有制裁都有這個問題，因為在制裁下，它仍然可以賣石油，而且

Sanctions were reimposed in 2018 during Trump's first term, and contributed to a sharp drop in exports.

制裁是在川普第一任期內的2018年重新實施的，並導致出口急劇下降。

When Joe Biden became president, however, enforcement eased and flows boomed again, with much of it moving to China via a fleet of shadow tankos.

不過，當喬·拜登就任總統後，執法力道放寬，油市又開始蓬勃發展，其中大部分透過一支「影子油輪船隊」運往中國。

But this hasn't necessarily meant more cash for the Iranian economy, because sanctions have such a chilling effect.

但這不一定代表伊朗經濟能獲得更多現金，因為制裁的寒蟬效應非常強大。

By discounting oil significantly, it can kind of incentivise or encourage buyers.

透過大幅折扣油價，可以某種程度上鼓勵或誘使買家。

While the Iranian government blames much of this on Western sanctions, analysts contend corruption and mismanagement have played a role as well.

雖然伊朗政府將大部分原因歸咎於西方的制裁，但分析師認為貪腐和管理不善也扮演了角色。

The existence of sanctions has meant that some major economic players inside Iran, including the irgc, have benefited from them.

制裁的存在意味著，包括伊朗伊斯蘭革命衛隊在內的一些伊朗國內主要經濟參與者從中獲益。

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, a branch of the armed forces, has filled the gap left by failed companies or foreign ones that have exited the country.

伊朗伊斯蘭革命衛隊是武裝部隊的一個分支，填補了失敗的國內企業或已撤離的外國企業留下的市場空缺。

Sanctions create the opportunity through smuggling, through scarcity, and they create the opportunity for corruption.

制裁透過走私、透過稀缺性創造了機會，也為貪腐創造了機會。

Allies linked to the Supreme Leader and the IRGC have amassed an investment empire far beyond the borders of the Islamic Republic.

與最高領袖和伊朗伊斯蘭革命衛隊有關的盟友，已經在伊朗伊斯蘭共和國國境之外建立了一個龐大的投資帝國。

The IRGC receives kickbacks on a lot of deals that are going on.

伊朗伊斯蘭革命衛隊從許多正在進行的交易中收取回扣。

Often, if you're trying to do business with an entity in Iran, you're inevitably going to come up against someone from the irgc, either current or former.

通常，如果你想在伊朗與某個實體做生意，你不可避免地會遇到伊朗伊斯蘭革命衛隊的現任或前任成員。

They really have their tentacles spread throughout the Iranian system.

他們的觸角真的伸進了伊朗的整個體系。

The corruption and neglect are seen as having left Iran facing a growing environmental emergency.

腐敗和疏忽被認為讓伊朗面臨日益嚴峻的環境危機。

In Tehran at the start of the autumn, there were reports of some taps running dry.

在秋季開始時，德黑蘭傳出有些水龍頭乾涸的報導。

The amount of water in dams and reservoirs was dropping to record lows.

水壩和水庫的水量正在降至歷史新低。

The government hasn't really been able to manage this.

This was an extraordinary thing for someone to say.

這句話對某人來說真是太不尋常了。

So the ecological problems that Iran faces right now are acute, they are severe, and

所以伊朗目前面臨的生態問題非常急迫、非常嚴重，而且

they've already started to impact industry and the economy.

On top of this, there is international pressure.

Moments ago, Israel launched Operation Rising Lion.

幾分鐘前，以色列發動了「旭日雄獅行動」。

Israel, having long feared a nuclear armed Iran, struck several facilities believed to be enriching uranium.

以色列長期以來一直擔心伊朗擁有核武，是以攻擊了數個據信正在濃縮鈾的設施。

Israel targeted the nuclear program, but it also targeted civilian population centers, including Tehran.

以色列的目標是核計畫，但也同時攻擊了包括德黑蘭在內的平民區。

So it affected a big chunk of the Iranian population.

所以這影響了很大一部分伊朗人口。

Up until recently, the nuclear program did have broad support.

直到最近，核計畫一直獲得廣泛支持。

But as successive waves of sanctions were implemented on Iran, there is a public backlash.

但隨著一波又一波的制裁陸續對伊朗實施，民眾開始出現反彈。

新任國王，穆罕默德·禮薩·巴列維。

Iran's nuclear program dates back to the 1950s, and the government has long maintained its purpose was peaceful.

伊朗的核計畫可以追溯到 1950 年代，政府也一直聲稱其目的是和平的。

The US joined Israel in striking Iran's nuclear program, and that has really been humiliating for the Iranians.

美國與以色列聯手打擊伊朗的核計畫，這對伊朗人來說確實是極大的羞辱。

Iran, the bully of the Middle east, must now make peace.

中東的霸凌者伊朗，現在必須尋求和平。

Iran's geopolitical position has been enormously weakened.

伊朗的地緣政治地位已大大削弱。

Iran was the one country to welcome the hamas attacks of October 7, 2023, and

伊朗是唯一一個歡迎 2023 年 10 月 7 日哈瑪斯襲擊的國家，而且

it thought that it would weaken Israel, would strengthen the position of Iran.

它認為這會削弱以色列，會鞏固伊朗的地位。

While there's no evidence to suggest that Tehran helped plan the attack, the regime framed it as a gain for its allies.

雖然沒有證據顯示德黑蘭協助策劃了這次襲擊，但伊朗政權將其描繪成盟友的勝利。

The axis of resistance, a coalition of states and militant groups intent on countering Israeli and US influence in the region, is now shattered.

旨在對抗該地區以色列和美國影響力的國家和民兵組織聯盟「抵抗軸心」，如今已分崩離析。

In Gaza, Hamas has been reduced as a serious threat.

在加薩，哈瑪斯作為一個嚴重的威脅已被削弱。

Hezbollah in Lebanon has been decapitated.

And in Syria, President Assad was toppled by a Sunni power which is very much opposed to Iran.

在敘利亞，阿薩德總統被一個非常反對伊朗的遜尼派勢力推翻。

Although the loss of ally has further isolated Iran, other Gulf nations don't necessarily welcome the collapse of its government.

雖然盟友的損失讓伊朗更加孤立，但其他海灣國家不一定樂見其政府垮臺。

Iran is a competitor for most of the Gulf Arab states, not an economic competitor, but

伊朗對大多數海灣阿拉伯國家來說是個競爭對手，不是經濟上的競爭對手，而是

politically, ideologically, for influence.

在政治、意識形態和影響力方面。

They're worried about the kind of significant instability and power vacuum that the collapse of the Islamic Republic would leave and what impact it would have on them.

他們擔心伊斯蘭共和國垮臺後會造成嚴重的動盪和權力真空，以及對他們的影響。

It's this crisis of legitimacy that lays at the heart of Iran's turmoil.

正是這種合法性危機，埋藏在伊朗動盪的根源。

The Islamic Republic has been struggling with its legitimacy for a long time.

伊斯蘭共和國長期以來一直為其合法性而掙扎。

Most of the people who live in Iran today were not alive at the time of the revolution.

今天住在伊朗的大多數人，在革命時都還沒出生。

They don't share the experiences of the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, and his generals, his clerics.

他們沒有最高領袖哈米尼、他的將軍們、他的教士們的經歷。

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伊朗領導人為何面臨危險時刻？ (Why Iran’s Leaders Face a Dangerous Moment)

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