Name: 災難降臨美國！中國下令銀行大規模拋售美債！ ('DISASTER FOR AMERICA': China ORDERS Banks to MASS DUMP US DEBT)
Uploaded: 2026-02-13T18:31:03.000Z
Duration: 13 min 30 s

程度副詞

China just told its banks to stop buying U.S.

treasuries and ordered its largest financial institutions to start selling US Debt.

美國國債，並命令其最大的金融機構開始出售美國債務。

轉承詞

This is a major blow to the United States because China is the third largest holder of US debt, and

這對美國來說是個重大的打擊，因為中國是美國債務的第三大持有者，

dumping $700 billion of US debt is going to shoot interest rates in the United States to the moon.

拋售 7000 億美元的美國債務將會讓美國的利率飆升到天上。

But Donald Trump has a plan, a plan that is either going to break the United States or or break China, which is why investors are very worried.

但川普有一個計畫，這個計畫不是讓美國破產，就是讓中國破產，這也是為什麼投資者非常擔心。

And you should be worried as well, because it is directly going to impact your life.

你也應該擔心，因為這會直接影響到你的生活。

If you think that this is an exaggeration, then watch this video till the end and you will be convinced.

如果你覺得這是在誇大其詞，那就把這支影片看到最後，你就會信服了。

So if you're ready, give this video a thumbs up and let's get right into it.

所以，如果你準備好了，就給這支影片按個讚，我們馬上開始。

The real question is why China holds hundreds of billions of dollars of US Treasuries in the first place.

真正的問題是，中國一開始為什麼要持有數千億美元的美國國債。

China does international trade with the rest of the world and it is the second largest importer in the back.

中國與世界其他國家進行國際貿易，並且是全球第二大進口國。

In 2015 it imported about $1.7 trillion worth of goods.

2015年，中國進口了約 1.7 兆美元的商品。

Last year it imported $2.6 trillion worth of goods.

去年，中國進口了 2.6 兆美元的商品。

So it needs US dollars in order to settle trade with the UK, the European Union, the rest of the world and the United States.

所以，中國需要美元來跟英國、歐盟、世界其他國家以及美國進行貿易結算。

But holding so much US Dollars is unprofitable business because the dollar is consistently losing its value.

不過，持有這麼多美元其實不太划算，因為美元的價值一直在貶值。

In fact, the Federal Reserve itself has a targeted inflation rate of 2%.

事實上，美國聯邦儲備局自己設定的目標通貨膨脹率就是 2%。

So whether you like it or not, the dollar will lose at least 2% of its value anyways.

所以，不管你喜不喜歡，美元的價值都會至少損失 2%。

Which is why instead of holding US Dollars, you are going to hold a lot of US Treasuries, and

這就是為什麼，與其持有美元，你不如持有大量的美國國債，

the US Treasuries are going to pay you a consistent interest.

而美國國債會給你穩定的利息。

And whenever you need US Dollars to do international trade, you're simply going to convert your US Treasuries into US Dollars and will pay the uk, the eu, the United States, you name it.

當你需要美元來進行國際貿易時，你就可以直接把美國國債換成美元，然後支付給英國、歐盟、美國，你想支付給誰都可以。

Even the Chinese government is investing in the United States and you haven't started investing yet.

連中國政府都在投資美國了，你還沒開始投資。

That's why I Investing Academy, where you can learn step by step on how to start investing.

這就是為什麼有「我投資學院」，在這裡你可以一步一步學會怎麼開始投資。

The link is in the description there are two types of US Intra governmental debt and public debt.

連結在說明欄，美國債務有兩種：政府內部債務和公共債務。

Intra governmental debt is when the US Government owes money to itself.

政府內部債務是指美國政府欠自己的錢。

So one government agency owes money to another government agency.

也就是說，一個政府部門欠另一個政府部門的錢。

So the US Government cannot possibly go broke when it owes money to itself.

所以美國政府欠自己錢的時候，不可能破產。

The second type of debt is the public debt.

This is the debt that the US Government owes to China, Japan, the rest of the world, US Banks, US Investors, or any other investors, including the Federal reserve.

這是美國政府欠中國、日本、其他國家、美國銀行、美國投資者，或是包括美國聯邦儲備局在內的任何其他投資者的債務。

Back in 2011, 49% of all public debt was held by foreign countries.

回顧 2011 年，所有公共債務中有 49% 是由外國持有。

Today, that number has dropped to as low as 30%.

如今，這個數字已經降到 30% 左右。

This number is alone telling us that the rest of the world isn't buying US Debt like it used to in the past.

這個數字本身就告訴我們，全世界不像以前那樣購買美國債務了。

In fact, they've been massively selling their debt.

Like around 10 years ago, China used to be the largest investor in the United States and it held about 1.2 or $1.3 trillion of US debt.

大約十年前，中國是美國最大的投資者，持有約 1.2 兆或 1.3 兆美元的美國債務。

Since then, they sold about half of their debt because they started using their own currency for international trade.

從那以後，他們賣掉了大約一半的債務，因為他們開始在國際貿易中使用自己的貨幣。

And as the Chinese economy grows, more countries are trading with China, which means thus China doesn't even need the US Dollar, they can just to trade with the yuan.

隨著中國經濟的成長，越來越多國家與中國貿易，這意味著中國甚至不需要美元，他們可以直接用人民幣進行貿易。

But here's where the biggest problem back in 2020 and 2021, especially in 2021, the United States borrowed trillions of dollars because the United States was still under the pandemic.

但問題來了，在 2020 年和 2021 年，特別是 2021 年，美國借了數兆美元，因為當時美國還處於疫情之下。

I mean, in fact, the rest of the world was also under the pandemic.

實際上，全世界也處於疫情之下。

But because interest rates were insanely low, it allowed the US Government to borrow those trillions of dollars at an interest rate that is anything between 0 to 1% interest rate.

但由於利率非常低，這使得美國政府能夠以 0% 到 1% 的利率借到這些數兆美元。

And the vast majority of that debt was five years debt or less.

而這些債務絕大部分都是五年或更短期的債務。

Which means that in five years most of that debt is going to mature.

這意味著五年內，大部分債務都將到期。

So now in 2026, the US government has to refinance about $10 trillion of debt that the US government borrowed back in 2021.

所以到了 2026 年，美國政府必須為 2021 年借的約 10 兆美元債務進行再融資。

The only problem is that interest rates today are 3.6%.

唯一的問題是，今天的利率是 3.6%。

So the US government either has to pay that debt, which we know for a fact that the United States government is not going to do that, because the US Government doesn't even earn that much money.

所以美國政府要嘛償還這筆債務，但我們確切知道美國政府不會這麼做，因為美國政府根本賺不到那麼多錢。

The total income that the government is earning is about 5 to $5.5 trillion.

政府的總收入大約是 5 到 5.5 兆美元。

So the only option that the government has is to refinance that debt.

所以政府唯一的選擇就是再融資這筆債務。

But because interest rates today are 3.6%, you are going to refinance those $10.6 trillion at a much higher interest rate than the interest rate that you used to borrow that money back in 2021.

但是因為今天的利率是 3.6%，你將會用比 2021 年借錢時高很多的利率來再融資這 10.6 兆美元。

Short term treasuries have 3.5% yields, or while long term government bonds have about 4.6%.

短期國債的殖利率是 3.5%，而長期政府債券的殖利率大約是 4.6%。

Ideally, you want to refinance your entire debt with 30 year government bonds, because if you can do that, you can simply forget about your debts and then you have to worry about them 30 years later.

理想情況下，你會想用 30 年期的政府債券來再融資你所有的債務，因為如果你能這麼做，你就可以暫時忘記你的債務，然後 30 年後再擔心。

But because the size of the US debt so insanely huge, even a single percentage point in interest rates is going to cost the US Government hundreds of billions of dollars, which means that the only option the government has right now is refinance that debt with short term debt.

但因為美國債務的規模實在太龐大了，即使是 1% 的利率變動，都會讓美國政府付出數千億美元的代價，這意味著政府現在唯一的選擇就是用短期債務來再融資。

In fact, this year alone, the US Government is going to pay about a trillion dollars in interest payments.

事實上，光是今年，美國政府就要支付大約一兆美元的利息。

And if the US government is going to pay an additional 1% in yield, that is going to cost the government an extra almost $400 billion.

而如果美國政府要支付額外 1% 的殖利率，那將會讓政府多花將近 4000 億美元。

So instead of paying $1 trillion, the government will pay about $1.4 trillion in interest payments, which is, to be honest, is a lot of money.

所以政府支付的利息將會從 1 兆美元變成大約 1.4 兆美元，說實話，這是一筆很大的錢。

It's a huge chunk of the entire government' and here's how Donald Trump is planning to fix that.

這佔了整個政府預算很大一部分，而這就是川普打算如何解決這個問題。

Donald Trump, over the last year has been consistently attacking the chairman of the Fed to lower down interest rates.

川普在過去一年來，一直持續批評聯準會主席要求降低利率。

And now he has appointed somebody who seems like he actually wants to lower interest rates.

而現在他任命了一位看起來真的想降低利率的人。

And because the entire debt is expiring and maturing this year, he wants to refinance it with short term debt, which means that three months later or six months later, those debts must be refinanced again.

因為今年的債務即將到期，他想用短期債務來再融資，這意味著三個月或六個月後，這些債務必須再次再融資。

And if the new Fed chair is going to lower interest rates by summer this year, he will be able to refinance all of that debt at a much lower interest rates than the current interest rates.

如果新的聯準會主席在今年夏天降低利率，他就能夠以比目前利率低許多的利率來再融資所有這些債務。

If the current yields are about 3.6%, because interest rates by the Fed are set to about 3.6%, if by the middle of the year or the end of the year interest rates will be about 2.4, he will be able to refinance all of that debt with 2.5% interest rate.

如果目前的殖利率大約是 3.6%，因為聯準會設定的利率大約是 3.6%，如果到年中或年底利率降到大約 2.4%，他就能夠以 2.5% 的利率再融資所有這些債務。

And because every single percent cost the government about $400 billion, he will save the US government hundreds of billions of dollars.

因為每 1% 的利率變動就要花費政府大約 4000 億美元，他將能為美國政府省下數千億美元。

While this seems like a really great plan because it allows you to manage interest payments in the short run, it can easily turn into a huge catastrophe.

雖然這聽起來是個很棒的計畫，因為短期內可以管理利息支出，但很容易變成一場大災難。

Since China started selling US Treasuries, and

因為中國開始賣出美國國債，而且

European countries have also announced that they will also be selling of billions of dollars of US Treasuries because the United States is no longer a reliable partner.

歐洲國家也宣佈要賣出數十億美元的美國國債，因為美國不再是可靠的夥伴。

The only question comes back at the end of the day is that who is going to buy all of that debt?

一天到晚，最後的問題都回到：誰會買走這些債務？

Even if you artificially lower down interest rates, it is going to create inflation, which means that the only entity that will be able to buy so much US Debt is the Federal Reserve.

即使你人為地降低利率，也會造成通貨膨脹，這意味著唯一有能力買走這麼多美國債務的實體就是美國聯邦儲備局。

So the question is where the Fed will take the money to buy so much US Treasuries when these countries are dumping hundreds of billions of dollars of U.

所以問題是，當這些國家拋售數千億美元的美國國債時，聯準會要從哪裡拿錢來買？

The only option that the Fed has is by printing money.

聯準會唯一的選擇就是印鈔票。

And we all have seen what has happened back in 2021 and 2022, where inflation spiked dramatically when the Fed started printing trillions of dollars to buy so much U.S.

我們都見過 2021 年和 2022 年發生的事，當時聯準會開始印了數兆美元來買這麼多美國債務，通貨膨脹就急劇飆升。

And this time it is not going to be an exception.

Every single time the Fed is going to do that, it is going to lead to a high inflation.

聯準會每次這麼做，都會導致高通膨。

All of that quantitative easing is going to cause another wave of inflation.

所有的量化寬鬆都會引發另一波通膨。

That inflation could be 4% or 5%, which means that the Federal Reserve will have to hike interest rates yet again in three to five years from now.

那通膨可能是百分之四或百分之五，這意味著美國聯邦儲備局將在三年到五年後再次升息。

That might happen as soon as 2030 or 2031, which is literally four to five years later.

這可能最早在 2030 年或 2031 年發生，也就是差不多四年到五年後。

And because almost all debt today is being refinanced with short term Treasuries, which means that they are going to expire in three to five years from now, the US Government will have no other option but to refinance that debt to at a much higher interest rate.

而且由於現在幾乎所有的債務都是透過短期美國國債再融資，這意味著它們將在三年到五年內到期，美國政府將別無選擇，只能以高得多的利率為該債務再融資。

Because the Fed will be forced to hike interest rates by 2029 or 2030.

因為聯準會將被迫在 2029 年或 2030 年升息。

Because there is going to be so much inflation and because the US debt is projected to cross $53 trillion by 2031.

因為將會有這麼高的通膨，而且美國債務預計到 2031 年將突破 53 兆美元。

And 2031 isn't like 10 years or 20 years from now.

2031 年並不是十年或二十年後。

2031 is literally going to be during the period of the next President of the United States.

2031 年將會是下一任美國總統任期內。

So if the Fed raises interest rates to 5% in 2030, or you want 5% out of $53.3 trillion is about $2.7 trillion.

所以如果聯準會在 2030 年把利率升到 5%，或者說 53.3 兆美元的 5% 大約是 2.7 兆美元。

So five years from now, interest payments could be as high as $2.7 trillion.

所以五年後，利息支出可能會高達 2.7 兆美元。

If investors today are already skeptical and are not buying as much as they should 30 year government bonds, imagine what is going to happen five years later when the debt is going to cross $53 trillion and the vast majority of that will have to be refinanced at a much higher interest rate.

如果投資者今天已經很懷疑，而且購買 30 年期政府債券的意願不像應該的那麼高，想像一下五年後，當債務突破 53 兆美元，而且大部分債務必須以高得多的利率再融資時，會發生什麼事。

If refinancing the debt today at this level is such a huge catastrophe, just imagine for a moment what a big deal it is going to be five years later when you're spending the vast majority of your income on interest payments.

如果今天在這個水準上再融資債務已經是一場巨大的災難，試著想像一下五年後，當你把大部分收入都花在支付利息時，這將會是一件多麼重大的事情。

You become somebody to whom loaning money is risky.

你變成一個借錢給他有風險的人。

Imagine if you're making $100,000 and you're spending $50,000 annually just on interest payments.

想像一下，如果你年收入 10 萬美元，但每年光是支付利息就要花掉 5 萬美元。

If you go to another bank and you try to borrow money and the bank sees that you're already spending 50% of your entire income on interest payments.

如果你去另一家銀行，試圖借錢，而銀行看到你已經把全部收入的 50% 都花在支付利息上了。

What do you think this bank is going to think about you?

Do you think the bank is going to trust you to give you 30 year loans?

你覺得銀行會相信你，給你 30 年的貸款嗎？

Do you think the bank is going to charge you a lower interest rate or the bank is going to charge you a much higher interest rate.

你覺得銀行會向你收取較低的利率，還是會向你收取高得多的利率。

So technically, even though that this is a very short term solution, any investor with a little bit of brain that can look into the future five years later can realize what a big catastrophe it is going to be five years later.

所以技術上來說，即使這是一個非常短期的解決方案，任何有點腦筋、能預見五年後情況的投資者，都會意識到五年後將會是一場多麼大的災難。

Refinancing all of that debt is going to cost the US Government a lot more.

重新融資所有這些債務，將會讓美國政府付出更多代價。

When you are investing, the most important thing that you pay attention to is risk and reward.

當你在投資時，你最關注的是風險和報酬。

The riskier the investment, the higher the reward that you are expecting.

投資風險越高，你預期的報酬也就越高。

If you are investing in a company such as Palantir, you expect it to grow by 100% because.

如果你投資像 Palantir 這樣的公司，你預期它會成長 100%，因為。

因為這是一項非常高風險的投資。

But when you're investing your money in a fixed deposit in a bank, you expect to receive about 3 or 4%, not 100% for a fact, because this is a very safe investment.

但當你把錢存入銀行的定存時，你預期會收到大約 3% 或 4% 的利息，而不是 100%，因為這是一項非常安全的投資。

You're essentially not taking any risk or whatsoever.

When the US Government has to pay at least a third to a half of its entire revenue to interest payments, do you think risks are rising or risks are falling?

當美國政府必須將其總收入的至少三分之一到二分之一用於支付利息時，你認為風險是在上升還是下降？

And if the risks are rising, do you think investors are going to demand a much higher interest rate or a lower interest rate?

如果風險在上升，你認為投資者會要求更高的利率還是更低的利率？