Name: 金價飆漲還沒結束？這幾個原因讓你不得不信！ (Why The Gold Stock Rally Isn’t Over Yet)
Uploaded: 2026-01-21T02:54:13.000Z
Duration: 4 min 5 s

Today on FORBES why the Gold Stock Rally Isn't Over Yet Gold had a big year.

在今天的 FORBES 節目中，我們要聊聊為什麼黃金股票反彈還沒結束，黃金今年表現亮眼。

The yellow metal surged from $2,600 per ounce to start the year to over $4,300 by the end of it, for a 65% return.

黃金從年初的每盎司 2,600 美元飆升到年底的 4,300 美元以上，報酬率高達 65%。

The Vaneck Gold Miners ETF $29 billion in assets rose by 155%.

總資產達 290 億美元的 Vaneck 黃金礦業ETF 上漲了 155%。

After moves like that, a reasonable question comes up.

經歷了這樣的漲勢，一個合理的疑問出現了。

Oliver runs the Myrmican Gold Fund, which launched in 2010 and as of a 2023 filing managed about $30 million in assets.

Oliver 管理著 Myrmican Gold Fund，該基金成立於 2010 年，截至 2023 年的申報資料，管理約 3,000 萬美元的資產。

Now Oliver, it should be noted, is a committed gold advocate, not a neutral observer.

必須指出的是，Oliver 是個堅定的黃金擁護者，並非中立觀察者。

But in a research note published last week, he argues that the gold trade is still early.

但在上週發布的研究報告中，他認為黃金交易才剛開始。

More importantly, he says, the usual problem for gold miners rising costs that crush margins aren't a foregone conclusion.

更重要的是，他說，黃金礦業公司通常面臨的、會壓垮利潤率的成本上升問題，並非定局。

他的論點是從回顧過去開始的。

Gold didn't lead markets during the bubble years.

在保麗龍時期，黃金並沒有領漲市場。

In 2024, speculative trades dominated returns.

2024 年，投機交易主導了回報。

Gold rose too, but it lagged riskier assets.

黃金也上漲了，但它落後於風險更高的資產。

這種模式在 2025 年發生了轉變。

Speculative so called quote risk on assets cooled or retraced their prior moves.

投機性的所謂「風險偏好資產」降溫或回撤了之前的漲勢。

Gold, on the other hand, moved to the front.

黃金則取而代之，衝到了最前面。

Oliver says that shift matters because gold tends to perform best when credit is tightening, evidenced by the decline in speculative assets not expanding in those periods.

Oliver 表示，這種轉變很重要，因為黃金通常在信貸緊縮時表現最好，當時投機性資產並未擴張，這就證明瞭這一點。

Gold prices often rise faster than most other commodities, Oliver says.

Oliver 說，金價經常比大多數其他商品漲得更快。

That's how this gold cycle is playing out, at least so far.

至少到目前為止，這個黃金週期就是這樣運作的。

The Federal Reserve is cutting short term rates, but

the yield on 30 year treasury bonds is is now 50 basis points higher than it was in September 2024.

30 年期公債殖利率現在比 2024 年 9 月高出 50 個基點。

That's when the Fed kicked off its latest round of easing monetary policy.

那時候聯準會剛開始新一輪的寬鬆貨幣政策。

That combination points to potentially weaker credit growth than what you'd typically expect.

這種組合預示著信貸成長可能比你通常預期的要疲軟。

And without a boom, industrial commodity prices tend to lag gold rather than race ahead of it, according to Oliver.

Oliver 認為，在沒有景氣榮景的情況下，工業商品價格通常會跟隨黃金，而不是超越它。

During the 1970s, gold prices rose 1,400%, far faster than most industrial commodities.

在 1970 年代，黃金價格上漲了 1,400%，遠遠快於大多數工業商品。

Copper, for example, gained just 45% that decade.

舉例來說，銅在那十年只上漲了 45%。

Oliver thinks those dynamics are returning.

He expects oil prices to stay contained as US Supply expands and long term demand growth weakens.

他預期隨著美國供應擴大和長期需求成長減弱，油價將保持穩定。

Energy, as you'd expect, is one of the largest mining inputs.

能源是礦業最大的投入之一，這並不意外。

Slower energy inflation helps protect margins.

較慢的能源通膨有助於保護利潤率。

He also argues that most industrial commodities will struggle to keep up with gold in a slow growth environment.

他也認為，在成長緩慢的環境下，大多數工業商品將難以跟上黃金的漲勢。

Gold miners, he says, are not facing the usual cost squeeze.

他表示，黃金礦業股票並沒有面臨一般的成本壓力。

If gold continues to rise faster than inputs, margins should widen, not compress.

如果黃金持續上漲速度快於投入成本，利潤率應該會擴大，而不是被壓縮。

Gold mining stocks had a spectacular 2025.

黃金礦業股票在 2025 年表現亮眼。

Oliver doesn't see this as a warning sign.

He argues those gains look more like the start of a longer bull market than the end of one.

他認為這些漲勢看起來更像是長期牛市的開端，而不是結束。

For full coverage, check out Brandon Kokoden's piece on Forbes.com this is Kieran Meadows from Forbes.

如需完整報導，請前往 Forbes.com 閱讀 Brandon Kokoden 的文章，我是 FORBES 的 Kieran Meadows。

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金價飆漲還沒結束？這幾個原因讓你不得不信！ (Why The Gold Stock Rally Isn’t Over Yet)

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