Name: 數千人恐遭殺害：伊朗抗議者還有什麼選擇？| DW新聞 (Thousands feared killed: What options are left for Iran's protesters | DW News)
Uploaded: 2026-01-15T17:29:25.000Z
Duration: 18 min 51 s

Iran's foreign minister says there are no plans to execute anti government demonstrators.

伊朗外交部長表示，沒有計畫要處決反政府示威者。

分詞構句

Echoing a statement from Donald Trump, the US President declared that the killing was stopping after he vowed to take action to support protesters.

美國總統呼應川普的說法，表示在誓言採取行動支持抗議者後，殺戮行動已經停止。

But rights groups say security forces have already shot thousands of people who took part in nationwide rallies.

但人權團體表示，安全部隊已經射殺了數千名參與全國性集會的人。

Iran has threatened to retaliate against any US intervention, triggering the evacuation of non essential American staff from military bases in the region.

伊朗威脅要報復任何美國的幹預，這引發了非必要美國人員從該區域的軍事基地撤離。

This includes a Qatari base that Iran targeted last June following US Airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.

這包括伊朗在去年六月，針對美國空襲伊朗核設施後所鎖定的卡達基地。

Iran's civil aviation authorities reopened its airspace after closing it for a few hours.

伊朗民航局在關閉數小時後重新開放了其空域。

Here's a map showing hundreds of planes avoiding the country for almost five hours.

這張地圖顯示了數百架飛機近五小時都避開該國。

Only a handful of international flights was allowed to enter or leave Iranian airspace.

只有少數國際班機獲準進出伊朗空域。

So let's take stock of where we are with Middle east expert Daniel Gerlach.

所以，讓我們來聽聽中東專家 Daniel Gerlach 的分析。

He's editor in chief of Zenith magazine, which focuses on the Middle east and North Africa.

他是 Zenith 雜誌的總編輯，該雜誌專注於中東和北非地區。

Let's start with that statement from Tehran.

我們先從德黑蘭的聲明開始談起。

No plans to execute people in connection with these protests.

沒有計畫要處決與這些示威有關的人。

Do we presume that that is because of US threats to intervene if those executions go ahead?

我們能假設這是因為美國威脅，如果處決進行，就要進行幹預嗎？

What seems to be the Iranian tactic at the moment, which is in a way ironic, because previously the Iranian executive branch, of which the foreign minister is a part, had always said that they have an independent justice system and they do not interfere in court decisions.

目前伊朗的策略似乎是，這有點諷刺，因為先前伊朗的行政部門，外交部長也是其中一員，一直都說他們有獨立的司法體系，而且不幹預法院的判決。

Now, the justice system, in particular the revolutionary justice system, which is responsible for these speedy show trials, is a very important instrument of repression of the Iranian regime.

現在，司法體系，特別是負責這些快速審判的革命司法體系，是伊朗政權鎮壓的重要工具。

It's a court system that is not there to do law enforcement.

這是一個不是用來執法的法院體系。

It's there to threaten and to preserve the, let's say, the institutions of the Islamic Republic.

它是用來威脅並維持，可以說，伊斯蘭共和國的機構。

Now, the head of the judiciary is a former intelligence guy who was one of the most, let's say, prominent representatives of this revolutionary court system.

現在，司法部門的首長是一位前情報人員，他曾是這個革命法院體系裡，可以說是最傑出的代表之一。

And if it's true, then it would be an interesting precedent because it would be the first time that the Iranian regime makes concessions on domestic affairs because of foreign pressure.

如果這是真的，那將會是一個有趣的先例，因為這將是伊朗政權第一次因為外來壓力而在國內事務上做出讓步。

Previously, we've had quite the opposite.

以前，我們看到的是完全相反的情況。

For example, 2025, when America, mainly Israel, but

舉例來說，2025年，當美國，主要是以色列，還有美國，攻擊伊朗時，我們看到快速處決、大量逮捕、許多快速審判，有時還有祕密處決。

also America, struck Iran, we saw speedy executions, a lot of arrests, a lot quick trials, sometimes also secret executions.

所以我認為這顯然是一種策略，一種外交手段，但

So I think this is clearly a tactics, a stratagem of foreign policy, but

不一定代表著確切的未來資訊。

not necessarily any accurate information on what's going to happen.

我想接續你剛才提到的那個提醒。

I wanted to pick up on the caveat you put in there.

如果這是真的，那我們相信處決已經停止了嗎？

If this is true, do we believe that executions have stopped?

我無法告訴你，因為其中一些處決是祕密進行的，直到今天，人們都不知道屍體在哪裡。

I cannot tell you because some of those executions are done in secret until Today, people do not know what the bodies, where the bodies are.

They don't know how many people have been killed, how many people have been arrested.

他們不知道有多少人被殺，有多少人被逮捕。

Often when people have been arrested, the families were not notified about it.

很多時候，當有人被逮捕時，家屬並沒有收到通知。

But clearly the motivation of the Iranian government to come up with such a statement.

但伊朗政府提出這樣聲明的動機，顯然是...

He says, I believe that it's like this, but

it's not probably necessarily corroborated by intelligence means that that strategy, that tactic work on him.

這可能不一定能被情報手段證實，那樣的策略、那樣的戰術對他有效。

For now, the White House was quite vague about what punishment would follow, if indeed any punishment would follow.

目前，白宮對於如果真的有懲罰，會是什麼樣的懲罰，說法相當含糊。

Tehran seems to believe the Trump threats.

Do you believe that there was the will to follow through in Washington on those threats?

你相信華盛頓有決心要兌現那些威脅嗎？

I think there was a certain degree of will, yes.

我覺得有某種程度的意願，是的。

But Trump was undecided, and I think he has been.

但川普當時猶豫不決，我認為他現在也是。

He sought the advice of his allies or interlocutors in the Gulf region, Iran's regional neighbors, the Arab Gulf states, but

他尋求了海灣地區盟友或對話者的意見，伊朗的區域鄰國，阿拉伯海灣國家，但

And I think they tried to dissuade him from this.

我認為他們試圖勸阻他這樣做。

I think they insisted that they prefer to have stability in the region, to not have any military escalation, not to have missiles that are being shot at U.S.

我認為他們堅持認為，他們寧願該區域保持穩定，不要有任何軍事升級，不要有飛彈射向美國

targets in the Gulf, which would also affect them and their air spaces.

在海灣的目標，這也會影響到他們和他們國家的空域。

And I think Trump is very much susceptible to that kind of.

我認為川普非常容易受到那種影響。

And I think also the problem for the Americans is, until today, even if they decide to strike Iran, what targets would they strike in order to stop the repression and the killing of people?

我認為美國的問題是，直到今天，即使他們決定要打伊朗，他們會打什麼目標才能阻止鎮壓和殺戮呢？

They can strike military installations, the missile program, what's left of the nuclear program, but

他們可以打擊軍事設施、飛彈計畫、核計畫剩餘的部分，但

that would have no effect on the repression.

So political pressure, military means, as a tool for political pressure on the Iranian regime is what the Americans have.

所以美國擁有的，是用來對伊朗政權施加政治壓力的工具，也就是政治壓力、軍事手段。

The consensus seems to be that this particular uprising has now been crushed.

共識似乎是，這場特定的起義已經被鎮壓了。

Where does that leave the next uprising, and where does that leave the regime?

那這對下一場起義有什麼影響，又對政權有什麼影響？

It's some sort of a Pyrrhic victory, as one of my colleagues put it, because every time the regime manages to crush a resistance and uprising, the cost is higher, it's discredited, the number of casualties grow, the tools of repression are there, but

這有點像是某種慘勝，就像我的一位同事說的，因為每次政權成功鎮壓一次抵抗和起義，付出的代價就更高，信譽更差，傷亡人數增加，鎮壓的手段依然存在，但

他們在某種程度上也是絕望的。

And the regime is morally and politically completely hallowed.

而這個政權在道德和政治上都已徹底崩潰。

That's why it's so important for the regime now to put their own victims to the front and say, police officers, our own people have died in these clashes.

這就是為什麼對這個政權來說，現在把自己的受害者擺在前面，說「警察，我們自己的人在這些衝突中犧牲了」是如此重要。

This is why we saw these state funerals yesterday.

這就是為什麼我們昨天看到了這些國葬。

Absolutely because it's important for the regime to show these pictures also, for example, to show that clergy participates in these funerals.

絕對是，因為對這個政權來說，展示這些畫面也很重要，例如，展示神職人員參加這些葬禮。

Because that's somehow the image that the Islamic Republic wants to present of itself.

因為這在某種程度上是伊斯蘭共和國想呈現給外界的形象。

So it's a very, it's difficult for the regime at the same time to uphold the oppression and also to deter any protesters and at the same time pretend that they're back to normal.

所以，對這個政權來說，同時維持壓迫、嚇阻任何抗議者，同時又假裝一切恢復正常，是非常、非常困難的。

And so they're trying to do both at the same time, whereas they always have the sort of Damocles of the Americans over their heads.

所以他們試圖同時做這兩件事，而他們頭上總是懸著美國的達摩克里斯之劍。

Because the Americans might have told the regime in if you don't change your policy, we will come with a full strike on your political leadership.

因為美國人可能告訴過這個政權，如果你們不改變政策，我們將會全面打擊你們的政治領導層。

This is speculation, but it's possible that that's the message that the Americans sent to them.

這是猜測，但這確實是美國人傳達給他們的一個可能的訊息。

But it's an interesting picture you paint there because for us non experts, Iran's theocratic regime appears to have a hold on the population and to be impervious to either political demands from within or, or political demands externally.

不過你描繪的景象很有意思，因為對我們這些非專家來說，伊朗的神權政體似乎掌控著人民，而且對內部的政治訴求或外部的政治壓力都無動於衷。

But what you're talking about is, seems to be a government that is actually running scared, of course, but

但你說的，似乎是一個其實非常害怕的政府，當然，

the only institution that really works in the whole Islamic Republic of Iran is the repression, is the system that preserves the power for the regime.

在整個伊朗伊斯蘭共和國裡，唯一真正運作的機構就是鎮壓，也就是維持政權權力的體系。

That's the only mechanism that runs like a well oiled machine.

那是唯一像一臺運轉順暢的機器一樣運作的機制。

But of course the cost is higher every time they repress an uprising.

但當然，每次鎮壓起義的代價都越來越高。

And the question is like, it's basically a run against time.

問題就像是，這基本上是一場與時間賽跑。

Like how often will we see these uprisings?

我們會看到多少次這樣的起義？

How many people and how many groups of the Iranian people will participate in it?

會有多少伊朗人民和多少群體參與其中？

And they cannot continue this game forever.

But at the moment it seems like nobody in the regime sees any alternative to continue that and to try to cling on to power.

但目前看來，政權裡沒有人看到除了繼續這樣下去、試圖緊抓權力之外的任何選擇。

So it crawls on because there is no, again, from the outside, there appears to be no single opposition figure who can take over.

所以它就這樣拖延著，因為，再次強調，從外面來看，似乎沒有一個單獨的反對派人物能夠接管。

I mean, we've had the Crown Prince Pahlavi talking from exile about leading some sort of transition, but

我的意思是，我們聽過流亡的王儲巴勒維談論領導某種過渡，但是

No, the Crown Prince keeps talking, the Crown Prince keeps giving statements.

不，王儲一直在談，王儲一直在發表聲明。

And especially in the Iranian diaspora, many people who are not royalists today say everything is better than this regime.

尤其是在伊朗的海外僑民中，許多現在不是王室主義者的人說，任何事情都比這個政權好。

So if it's for the sake of unity, we would also support the Crown Prince in a transitional phase.

所以，如果這是為了團結，我們也會在過渡階段支持王儲。

But there's no scenario how that would work.

但沒有任何劇本說明那會如何運作。

Because Iran is, as a matter of fact, the regime is there.

因為事實上，伊朗的政權就在那裡。

You cannot just fly in a Crown Prince and say, okay, now everything is different.

你不能就這樣飛進來一位王儲，然後說，好了，一切都不同了。

The Crown Prince has even presented a scenario of transition, but

王儲甚至提出了一個過渡的劇本，但

that lacks one of the fundamental players, if not the key stakeholder, which is the Iranian regime, which has the power and the weapons.

這個劇本缺少了其中一個基本玩家，如果不是關鍵利益相關者，那就是伊朗政權，它擁有權力和武器。

And as long as, you know, people call for the Iranian people to rise up and to demonstrate, but

而且只要，你知道，人們呼籲伊朗人民起義和示威，但

they don't have the tools to overthrow the regime, we'll leave it there.

他們沒有推翻政權的工具，我們就先講到這裡。

Thank you so much for guiding us through that, Daniel.

非常感謝你為我們導讀，Daniel。

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數千人恐遭殺害：伊朗抗議者還有什麼選擇？| DW新聞 (Thousands feared killed: What options are left for Iran's protesters | DW News)

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