Name: 馬克宏經濟學為何受阻？ (Why Macronomics Hit a Wall)
Uploaded: 2026-01-10T18:26:51.000Z
Duration: 13 min 25 s

基礎被動語態

He was young, he was smart, and he was supposed to embody a French Renaissance.

他年輕、聰明，本應是法國文藝復興的化身。

分詞構句

In 2017, 39 year old Emmanuel Macron won the French presidency with a supply side economic program aimed at lowering taxes, cutting unemployment and reducing public spending.

2017年，39歲的艾曼紐·馬克宏以供給面經濟計畫贏得法國總統大選，目標是降低稅收、減少失業並削減公共支出。

程度副詞

He wanted to unleash the energy of the country because he has this very pro business image.

他想釋放國家的活力，因為他給人非常親商的形象。

It really was the final piece of the puzzle that was missing.

這確實是拼圖中最後 Missing 的一塊。

The idea was to make the economy more dynamic in order to be able to afford the generous welfare.

這個想法是讓經濟更有活力，以便能負擔慷慨的福利。

But over the years, the plan fizzled out.

但多年過去，這個計畫卻不了了之。

By the end of 2025, France's debt to GDP ratio had skyrocketed to 117% and is projected to reach 120% by 2027.

到2025年底，法國的債務佔GDP比率飆升至117%，預計到2027年將達到120%。

Meanwhile, GDP growth has stayed low with a rise of only 0.7% below the Eurozone average of 1.3%.

同時，GDP成長一直很低，僅成長0.7%，低於歐元區平均的1.3%。

The paradox is that Emmanuel Macron came to power on an agenda of strong public finances and a dynamic French economy.

諷刺的是，艾曼紐·馬克宏上任時，主張的是穩健的公共財政和充滿活力的法國經濟。

Fast forward eight years, you actually see a greater debt and an economy that is not growing very much.

快轉八年，你實際上看到債務增加，經濟成長緩慢。

So what went wrong and why does France's economy still feel broken?

那到底哪裡出錯了，為什麼法國的經濟還是感覺一團糟？

When looking back at the past eight years, it's fair to say France hasn't had a smooth ride and neither has Emmanuel Macron.

回顧這八年，可以說法國一路走來並不順遂，艾曼紐·馬克宏也是。

First there was the Gilesion, then the pandemic, Russia's war on Ukraine and the resulting energy crisis.

先是黃背心運動，接著是疫情、俄烏戰爭以及隨之而來的能源危機。

A reelection, the pension reform and some self inflicted wounds like the dissolution of parliament in 2024.

一次的連任、終身俸改革，還有一些像是2024年解散國會的自損行為。

But beyond global external factors, Macron's economic policies didn't give him the results he'd planned.

但除了這些全球外部因素，馬克宏的經濟政策並沒有帶來他預期的成果。

This is the place to be to invest, to work, to invent, to launch your business, to become a start upper.

這裡就是該來投資、工作、發明、創辦事業、成為新創企業家的最佳地點。

The idea was that by lowering taxes for companies, in particular for individual, well, this would help revitalize the economy altogether.

想法是透過降低企業稅，尤其是個人稅，來幫助整體經濟重振活力。

Flat tax basically capping at 30%, the taxation on investment income, suppression of the wealth tax replaced by a real estate tax.

稅率單一化，將投資所得的稅率上限設在30%，取消財富稅，改徵房地產稅。

So supply side policies, which probably went in the right direction with the former president.

所以供給面政策，這點和前總統一樣，可能走對了方向。

There were some propositions to do some very high taxes which actually created a bit of a brain drain.

不過有些提議是課徵非常高的稅，這反而造成了一些人才外流。

And there was really this feeling of France is hostile to entrepreneurs.

大家真的覺得法國對新創企業家很不友善。

The launch of the startup nation was embodied by Station F, the world's largest startups campus.

「新創國家」的啟動，具體展現在全球最大的新創園區 Station F。

When Station F arrived, Macron arrived, that really changed.

Station F 啟用，馬克宏上任後，情況真的改變了。

People understood that it's okay to launch a business here.

大家明白了在這裡創辦事業是沒問題的。

Foreign direct investment began to flow into France's tech scene.

外國直接投資開始湧入法國的科技產業。

And in 2019 France overtook Germany and the UK as the top FDI destination in Europe.

2019年，法國在外國直接投資方面超越德國和英國，成為歐洲第一。

And that investment seems to be making an impact.

而且這項投資似乎正在產生影響。

In 2016, France counted only three unicorns companies worth $1 billion or more.

2016年，法國只有三家獨角獸公司，價值10億美元或以上。

By 2025, that number had increased by a tenfold to 30 unicorns.

到了2025年，這個數字成長了十倍，達到30家獨角獸公司。

When we started in 2017, our companies raised 350 million.

我們在2017年剛開始時，我們的公司募到了3.5億。

Well, this year our companies raised 1 billion in the first nine months of the year.

嗯，今年我們公司在頭九個月就募到了10億。

That's the equivalent of the whole country of Italy just happening at Station F.

這相當於整個義大利的規模，就發生在Station F。

The poster child of success is Mistral AI and the set for the AI scene.

成功的典範就是Mistral AI，這也是AI領域的代表。

Actually, France is very well placed in Europe.

事實上，法國在歐洲的地位非常有利。

Of our 1,000 companies on campus, roughly is around AI.

我們園區裡的1000家公司中，大約有跟AI相關。

We have some climate, we have some robotics, which is still linked to AI.

我們有一些跟氣候相關的，也有一些跟機器人相關的，這都跟AI有關聯。

Another success of Macron's was reducing unemployment, France's long standing bugbear.

馬克宏的另一項成功是降低了法國長期以來難纏的失業問題。

Since the 1990s, unemployment is near some historic lows in France.

自1990年代以來，法國的失業率已接近歷史低點。

Certainly some of the structural reforms I brought in helped with that.

當然，我推動的一些結構性改革對此有所幫助。

More flexibility for companies to hire and fire workers as well.

公司在聘僱和解僱員工方面也更具彈性。

We're still giving some protection, allowed to retrain some of the workers as well.

我們仍然提供一些保障，也允許讓部分員工再培訓。

Unemployment has dropped noticeably since 2015.

自2015年以來，失業率明顯下降。

That year, 10.4% of the labor force was unemployed.

該年，勞動力的10.4%處於失業狀態。

到2024年，這個數字已降至7.4%。

However, France's youth is still out of work.

然而，法國的年輕人仍然失業。

Although following the same trend as other age groups, youth unemployment still stood at 18.5% in 2025, a stark contrast to Germany's 6.6% rate.

雖然與其他年齡層的趨勢相同，但2025年年輕人失業率仍高達18.5%，與德國的6.6%形成鮮明對比。

While fixing employment is a priority in most countries, it's especially key in France.

雖然解決就業問題是大多數國家的優先事項，但在法國尤其關鍵。

That's because pensions are mainly funded through employees contributions.

這是因為終身俸主要透過員工的提撥來資助。

France's current pension system started in 1945, just after World War II.

法國目前的終身俸制度始於1945年，就在第二次世界大戰之後。

Workers contribute to a fund that pays for their elders pensions with the expectation that they'll be able to collect their own pension through the future workforce.

勞工提撥到一個基金，用來支付長輩的終身俸，並期望未來勞動力能讓他們領到自己的終身俸。

That system might have worked in the 20th century, but demographics have changed.

這個制度在20世紀或許可行，但人口結構已經改變。

In 1960, France counted four workers for each pensioner.

1960年，法國每位退休者有四位勞工。

In 2023, that ratio plummeted to just 1.8 workers per pensioner.

到了2023年，這個比例驟降至每位退休者僅有1.8位勞工。

To solve this, contributions are regularly rising, but that makes a dent in workers purchasing power.

為瞭解決這個問題，提撥金額不斷調升，但這卻會影響勞工的購買力。

Another potential solution to the problem was raising the pension age, a reform Macron's government proposed in 2023.

另一個潛在的解決方案是提高退休年齡，這是馬克宏政府在2023年提出的改革。

Despite mass protests, the measure was ultimately passed.

儘管有大規模的抗議，這項措施最終還是通過了。

However, the reform was paused in December 2025 to ease political tensions.

不過，這項改革在2025年12月暫停，以緩解政治緊張局勢。

You have a whole group above 55 years old are too young to retire, but

你會發現有一整群55歲以上的人，他們太年輕無法退休，但

The main reasons for unemployment include a skills mismatch with job opportunities and employer uncertainty about future growth.

失業的主要原因包括技能與工作機會不符，以及僱主對未來成長的不確定性。

Another factor often cited is the difficulty of letting go of employees.

另一個常被提及的因素是解僱員工的困難度。

That is, until the 2023 labor market reform gave companies more latitude.

也就是說，直到2023年的勞動市場改革，讓企業有了更多彈性。

There is more flexibility than people are usually aware of.

其實比大家平常認知的還要更有彈性。

Outside of France, there's some labor market reforms, the introduction of some experience rating what we call bonus mallous system to make firms accountable for their layoff capping basically the amount of money which can be demanded from firms when they dismiss a worker.

在法國以外，有些勞動市場改革，引進了我們稱之為「獎勵扣減」的經驗評估制度，讓企業對其裁員負責，基本上封頂了企業解僱員工時可被要求的金額。

That's important, but we have to do it in an efficient way.

這很重要，但我們必須用有效率的方式來做。

There are lots of wrong policies in labour market protection, and this applies to both workers and companies.

勞動市場的保護措施裡，有很多錯誤的政策，這對勞工和企業都一樣。

Normally, when an employee resigns, they aren't entitled to unemployment benefits.

通常，員工辭職時，是不能領取失業救濟金的。

But in France, if both parties agree to dismissal by agreement, the employee can claim benefits while the company is protected from wrongful dismissal claims.

但在法國，如果雙方同意協議解僱，員工就可以領取救濟金，而公司則能免於不當解僱的訴訟。

And that's ultimately at the expense of the Social Security system.

這最終還是要由社會安全體系來承擔。

The dismissal by agreement system cost the state an estimated 10 billion euros in 2024.

協議解僱制度在2024年估計耗費國家100億歐元。

We do have nearly 40% of companies that say that they're actually able to get up and running thanks to unemployment benefits.

我們有將近40%的企業表示，他們實際上能夠成功營運，是因為有失業救濟金的幫助。

People can take six months off or a year off, say they have been fired by the firm and get unemployment benefits.

人們可以休息六個月或一年，聲稱被公司解僱，然後領取失業救濟金。

While France has a relatively average corporate tax rate for Europe, at 25%, it surpasses its neighbors in employer Social Security contribution.

法國的企業稅率在歐洲算是中等，為25%，但其僱主社會安全貢獻卻高於鄰國。

On average, employers bear cost equivalent to around 45% of an employee's gross salary.

平均來說，僱主負擔的成本相當於員工總薪資的45%左右。

But on the flip side, companies also benefit from subsidies.

不過話說回來，企業也能從補助中獲益。

BPI France, which is the sovereign fund in France, is funding over 50% of our companies here.

法國國家投資銀行（BPI France），也就是法國的主權基金，資助了我們這裡超過50%的企業。

And that's directly because they're also investors in a lot of funds.

這直接是因為他們也是許多基金的投資者。

But there's also ones for research and innovation, which is one of the most advantageous tax credits that we have in Europe.

但也有針對研發和創新的補助，這是我們在歐洲最有優勢的稅收抵免之一。

Do you remember Mario Draghi's famous 2012 speech?

還記得馬裡歐·德拉吉（Mario Draghi）2012年那場著名的演講嗎？

The ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro in 2020.

歐洲央行已準備好在2020年採取一切必要措施來維護歐元。

Macron mirrored that approach with another whatever it takes moment.

馬克宏也以另一個「不計一切代價」的時刻呼應了這種做法。

France is one of the most redistributive countries of the developed economies.

法國是已開發經濟體中，最具有財富再分配能力的國家之一。

And suddenly what we've seen, the answer to the multiple crises over the past few years, is to kind of redistribute and give more money.

而我們突然看到，過去幾年應對各種危機的答案，就是進行某種程度的再分配，並給予更多資金。

Take the pandemic's 1 off 150 billion euros state guaranteed loan to keep businesses afloat, or the 26.3 billion euros worth of subsidies in response to the surge in European energy prices following Russia's war on Ukraine.

像是為了讓企業得以生存，歐元區提供了1500億歐元的國家擔保貸款，或是為了因應俄烏戰爭導致歐洲能源價格飆升而提供的263億歐元補貼。

Like everywhere Else there were adverse selection in the sense that zombie firms took advantage of that to stay alive longer.

和其他地方一樣，出現了逆向選擇，也就是殭屍企業趁機延長存活時間。

Because these loans were open to all firms without vetting the sector or viability.

這是因為這些貸款開放給所有企業，沒有審核產業或可行性。

State funds helped keep these soldiers, called zombie companies, afloat.

國家資金幫助這些被稱為殭屍企業的「阿兵哥」得以存活。

Now bankruptcies in France are surging to catch up.

現在法國的破產潮正在追趕上來。

A recent Senate report also found that French businesses received between 108 and 211 billion euros worth of tax relief and subsidies in 2023, with little follow up or monitoring.

參議院最近的一份報告也指出，法國企業在2023年獲得了1080億到2110億歐元的稅收減免和補助，但後續追蹤和監管卻很少。

This is a very difficult policy to perform because we don't have the information usually about whether the companies are still, still worth it, worth preserving now in terms of taxing the firms.

這是一個非常難執行的政策，因為我們通常沒有關於企業是否仍然值得、是否值得保留的資訊，尤其是在稅收方面。

It's a very bizarre situation where we tax firms a lot and then we realize that and then we give them some stuff.

這是一個很奇怪的狀況，我們對企業課了很多稅，然後又發現了這一點，接著又給他們一些東西。

So the policies we use are not necessarily the best thing.

所以我們採用的政策不一定是最理想的。

Macron has tried to actually reduce, for example, production tax, which are taxes, for example, that are on turnover rather than profits.

馬克宏試圖實際減少，例如生產稅，這些稅是針對營業額而非利潤課徵的。