Name: 烏克蘭能避免為了終結戰爭而做出讓步嗎？ | DW 新聞 (Can Ukraine avoid making concessions to end the war? | DW News)
Uploaded: 2025-12-05T16:55:43.000Z
Duration: 10 min 44 s

Ukrainian and US Negotiators meet in Florida today to discuss a plan to end the war with Russia.

烏克蘭和美國談判代表今天在佛羅裡達會面，討論結束與俄羅斯戰爭的計畫。

This follows up to Tuesday's meeting in Moscow between Vladimir Putin, US Envoy Steve Witkoff, and

這是在莫斯科舉行的週二會議後續，當時與會者有 Vladimir Putin、美國特使 Steve Witkoff，以及

President Trump's son in law, Jared Kushner.

美國總統川普的女婿 Jared Kushner。

Although no real progress was made, the Kremlin described the meeting as useful and constructive.

雖然沒有取得實質進展，但克里姆林宮形容這次會議是有用且具建設性的。

So what's likely to happen today in Florida?

那麼今天在佛羅裡達可能會發生什麼事呢？

讓我們來聽聽 Anna Matveva 的分析。

She's a senior visiting research fellow at the Russia Institute and specializes in conflict and peace studies.

她是俄羅斯研究所的資深訪問研究員，專攻衝突與和平研究。

So this is the US Team meeting, the Ukrainians.

所以這是美國團隊會見烏克蘭團隊。

What, what's likely to happen at this meeting?

I think we are not going to see something very substantial because certainly the American team has an obligation to brief the Ukrainian team on how they, how they perceive the outcome of the meeting in Moscow.

我覺得我們不會看到什麼實質性的進展，因為美國團隊當然有義務向烏克蘭團隊簡報他們對莫斯科會議結果的看法。

And certainly five hours they have gone through every point.

而且他們肯定花了五個小時，逐點討論。

And that discussion probably gave the American team a very clear view where there is some flexibility on the Russian side and where they have like absolute.

而這次討論很可能讓美國團隊非常清楚地知道，俄羅斯方面在哪些地方有彈性，又在哪裡是絕對的。

Okay, so that is probably going to be more of information meeting rather than a negotiation meeting.

好的，所以這可能比較像是一場資訊會議，而不是談判會議。

President Putin, of course, is in India at the moment.

俄羅斯總統普丁當然目前在印度。

Just before he landed, he gave a TV interview and he qualified his meeting with the US Delegation this week.

就在他抵達前，他接受了電視採訪，並對他本週與美國代表團的會面做出了說明。

He said it was constructive, necessary and difficult work.

他說這是一項有建設性、必要且艱難的工作。

What did you, I gather you watch the interview.

你呢？我猜你也看了這段採訪。

What did you take away from the Russian president's remarks?

你從俄羅斯總統的談話中得到了什麼啟發？

Russian president generally felt quite relaxed, quite together.

俄羅斯總統總體上感覺相當輕鬆，相當鎮定。

Quite often he seemed like he was enjoying himself.

He obviously clear had a command of the field he was talking about, because he was asked all sorts of questions, some from different fields.

他顯然對他談論的領域瞭若指掌，因為他被問到了各種各樣的問題，有些來自不同領域。

But the only point when he became a bit more sort of sober and perhaps a bit more sort of grave when he talked about NATO enlargement, broken promise, things which were promised to Russia in 1990s.

但唯一讓他變得稍微嚴肅，或許也稍微沉重一些的時候，是他談到北約擴張、違背的承諾，以及在 1990 年代承諾給俄羅斯的那些事情。

And then there were ways of native expansion.

So that was perhaps the only change in otherwise quite jolly, quite amicable talk, full of humor remarks, improvisation.

所以那或許是整場歡樂、和睦、充滿幽默談話和即興發揮的談話中，唯一改變的地方。

And obviously Putin feeling very confident and not isolated.

顯然普丁感到非常有信心，而且並不孤立。

So while Putin is in India, the French president is in China.

所以當普丁在印度時，法國總統正在中國。

During his visit, Emmanuel Macron called on President Xi to try and use his influence to end this war.

訪問期間，馬克宏總統呼籲習近平總統試著運用他的影響力來結束這場戰爭。

And throughout this war, the same question keeps coming up.

在這場戰爭中，同一個問題不斷出現。

Does anybody care what European leaders have to say about this conflict?

有人關心歐洲領導人對這場衝突有什麼看法嗎？

Perhaps it was more of a factor at the beginning because also at that time, European leaders worked very much together with the Biden administration.

或許在初期這比較是個因素，因為當時歐洲領導人與拜登政府的合作非常緊密。

Now we are looking at the situation where China doesn't Need Europe that much.

現在我們看到的情況是，中國並沒有那麼需要歐洲。

It needs, of course, European market, but they can go reduce their dependency on that.

當然，他們需要歐洲市場，但他們可以減少對歐洲市場的依賴。

But we in Europe, we do really need China to produce manufactured goods.

但我們歐洲，我們確實需要中國來生產製成品。

So the equation, the power equation is more in the Chinese favor.

所以這個方程式，權力方程式，對中國更有利。

President Macron is very determined to play a very notable and very sometimes quite colorful role in the international diplomacy so that he's bound to press this point to presidency.

馬克宏總統非常堅定要在國際外交上扮演一個非常顯著、有時甚至相當鮮明的角色，所以他肯定會向總統府強調這一點。

I'm not sure that Beijing would take very great notice out of it.

我不確定北京會對此給予多少關注。

Thank you for talking us through that, Anna.

Anna Matveva, Senior Visiting Research Fellow at the Russia Institute.

Anna Matveva，俄羅斯研究所的資深訪問研究員。

Ivana Stradna is a research fellow at the foundation for Defence of Democracy's Russia Program.

Ivana Stradna 是國防民主基金會俄羅斯計畫的研究員。

I asked her what she was most looking out for in these talks in Florida.

我問她，在佛羅裡達的這些談判中，她最關注的是什麼。

I'm actually watching mostly what happened just in Moscow, and that Putin actually rejected the deal.

我其實主要在看莫斯科發生了什麼事，以及普丁實際上拒絕了這項協議。

And that really doesn't come as a surprise to anyone because we have to zoom out and to understand why Putin did that.

這對任何人來說都不意外，因為我們必須放大來看，才能理解普丁為什麼這麼做。

Putin wants to actually put a ball in Zelenskyy's court and to ask maximalist demands.

普丁其實是想把球踢給澤倫斯基，並提出極端的要求。

So Ukraine actually rejects, and then Washington portrays Ukraine as an unreliable partner.

所以烏克蘭其實拒絕了，然後華盛頓就把烏克蘭描繪成一個不可靠的夥伴。

The ultimate goal of Putin right now is to make sure that also the United States gives up, you know, given that President Trump has been hoping for a quick deal and then to put actually everything in Europe's court.

普丁現在的最終目標是確保美國也放棄，你知道，考慮到川普總統一直希望達成快速協議，然後把所有事情都推到歐洲身上。

So we have to understand that that's the ultimate goal.

所以我們必須明白，那就是最終目標。

I truly hope within the coming days that the United States is not going to push further.

我真的希望在接下來幾天，美國不會進一步施壓。

Ukraine asking for some territorial concessions because what we saw, how Putin again threaten, you know, Donbas, how Putin continues with drone attacks on Ukraine, that tells us actually everything that we need to know, that actually the United States has not been trying, you know, to push Ukraine towards that direction.

烏克蘭要求一些領土讓步，因為我們看到普丁再次威脅頓巴斯，普丁持續對烏克蘭進行無人機襲擊，這其實告訴了我們一切我們需要知道的，那就是美國實際上並沒有試圖，你知道，把烏克蘭推向那個方向。

But that's not something that Putin wants.

And my final point to this is also that Putin has been trying to divide Europe on this issue and to make sure that our center of gravity, which is alliance, that doesn't work.

我對此的最後一點是，普丁一直在試圖在這個問題上分化歐洲，並確保我們的重心，也就是聯盟，無法運作。

And that's extremely important right now to watch.

That's something that I'm watching among allies that we are speaking in one voice.

這是我正在觀察盟友們是否能團結一致的方面。

Okay, I just want to go back, I think, to the first part of your answer.

好的，我想回到你答案的第一部分。

Vladimir Putin has accused Europe of sabotaging these U.

普丁指控歐洲提出的不切實際的要求，破壞了美國領導的努力。

但他稱這次與美國代表團的會面是具建設性且必要的。

But he's called his own meeting with the US Delegation this week constructive and necessary.

所以你的意思是，這種截然不同的說法是在試圖分化歐洲和美國之間的關係，以便一旦談判可能破裂，普丁就能將進展停滯的責任歸咎於歐洲。

So are you saying that this use of very different language is somehow trying to sow dissent between Europe and the US So that if the talks possibly falter, then Vladimir Putin can Pin the blame on Europe for there not being progress.

你說得完全正確，普丁確實一直在指責歐洲提出不切實際的要求，而且他一向喜歡這麼做，你知道的，他會把歐洲描繪成一個好戰的國家。

You're absolutely right in sense to note that Putin has been blaming Europe for some unrealistic demands, as he loves usually, you know, to talk and basically portraying Europe as a warmonger.

事實上，即使他說了，你知道的，與美國的談判是順利的，但行動勝於雄辯，因為就在過去24小時內，普丁實際上加大了對烏克蘭的攻擊。

I'm actually, even if he said, you know, that talks were decent with the United States, actions speak louder than words because just over the past 24 hours, Putin has actually increased attacks on Ukraine.

這告訴了我們所有我們需要知道的，那就是他其實也不太高興看到回到歐洲的提議。

And that tells us all we need to know that actually he was not very also happy to see the proposal to go back to Europe.

普丁，首先，歐洲非常清楚，尤其是德國、法國和英國，必須在這個努力中發揮領導作用，因為普丁已經在與歐洲開戰，而不僅僅是與烏克蘭。

Putin, first of all, Europe understands very well, especially Germany, France and the United Kingdom, that they have to take the lead in this effort because Putin is already at war with Europe, not only with Ukraine.

我明白這對許多西方分析人士來說可能聽起來很瘋狂，但

And I understand that for a lot of Western analysts this may sound a crazy thing, but

actually, you know, just think about a new generation of warfare, as the Russian military calls it.

事實上，你知道的，就想一下俄羅斯軍方稱之為的「新一代戰事」。

Putin has already tried, you know, sabotage activity, activities across Europe, including in Germany, cutting sea cables in the Baltic states, drone incursions.

普丁已經嘗試過，你知道的，在歐洲各地進行破壞活動，包括在德國，切斷波羅的海國家的海底電纜，還有無人機侵擾。

So Europe understands very well that this war is not going to stop at Ukraine and that NATO's Article 5 is at risk.

所以歐洲非常清楚，這場戰爭不會只停在烏克蘭，北約的第五條款也處於危險之中。

Once again, I understand that some Western analysts might think this is ridiculous to even think that Putin cannot take Ukraine, but

再說一次，我明白有些西方分析人士可能會覺得，認為普丁無法拿下烏克蘭的想法很荒謬，但是

Yes, because Putin understands that he has time and will and he is going to actually challenge Article 5 and to make sure that Europe does not respond.

是的，因為普丁明白他有時間和意願，他實際上會挑戰第五條款，並確保歐洲不會做出回應。

And that's precisely why right now Germany, France and United Kingdom understand perfectly why they need to stop Putin now.

這也正是為什麼現在德國、法國和英國都完美地理解，為什麼他們現在必須阻止普丁。

But are you saying also that even if a deal was reached, that Putin can't be trusted really to finally end this?

但您也是在說，即使達成了協議，普丁真的不能被信任來最終結束這一切嗎？

We cannot trust Putin because Russia has had like a long history of violating agreements.

我們無法信任普丁，因為俄羅斯有著長久以來違背協議的歷史。

We already know what, what happened 30 years ago, what happened in 2014.

我們已經知道三十年前發生了什麼，以及二零一四年發生了什麼。

So whoever believes that Putin is willing to negotiate in good faith lives in a parallel universe.

所以任何相信普丁願意真誠談判的人，都活在平行宇宙裡。

That's also not part of the Kremlin strategic effort, basically, which is based, you know, on deception.

這也不是克里姆林宮戰略的一部分，基本上，你知道，它是建立在欺騙之上的。

And that's precisely, you know, why we cannot trust Putin with his words.

這也正是為什麼我們不能相信普丁說的話。

And that's precisely the only language that Putin understands.

這也正是普丁唯一聽得懂的語言。

And my last point to that, if I may add, Europe and also the United States should not fear escalations because Europe and the United States are much stronger than Russia and Russian economy in 2026.

如果我沒記錯的話，我的最後一點是，歐洲和美國不應該害怕局勢升級，因為歐洲和美國比俄羅斯和俄羅斯經濟在二零二六年時要強大得多。

There are multi multiple projections that is not going to be able to sustain.

And having said that Putin is just buying more time, so have to give up on our Western analysis of the Kremlin.

說了這些，普丁只是在拖延時間，所以我們得放棄對克里姆林宮的西方分析。

And we have to understand how Putin thinks in terms of his mindset when it comes to deception.

我們必須理解普丁在欺騙方面的思維模式。

And we are the ones who know that we should not allow this to happen because the only thing that he has is time right now and the will.

而我們知道，我們不應該讓這種情況發生，因為他現在擁有的唯一東西就是時間和意志。

We've been speaking to Ivana Stradna, research fellow at the foundation for Defence of Democracy's Russia Program.

我們剛才訪問了國防民主基金會俄羅斯計畫的資深研究員 Ivana Stradna。