Name: 俄羅斯戰爭機器為何失去動力？| DW 新聞 (Why Russia's war machine is running out of steam | DW News)
Uploaded: 2025-11-27T16:53:48.000Z
Duration: 12 min 22 s

程度副詞

We expect barely 1% growth, probably less.

我們預期成長率只有 1% 左右，甚至可能更低。

轉承詞

It is kind of a natural state of affairs because budgetary spending created high inflation and the central bank had to increase the base rate, which cooled down the whole economy.

這其實是蠻自然的狀況，因為財政支出造成了嚴重的通貨膨脹，而中央銀行不得不提高基本利率，這讓整個經濟都冷卻下來了。

I don't think that the economic situation in Russia would prompt Putin to be more flexible.

我認為俄羅斯的經濟狀況不會讓普丁變得更靈活。

The sanctions against Russia's two largest oil companies, Rosnefty and Lukoil, hit really hard.

對俄羅斯兩大石油公司 Rosnefty 和 Lukoil 的制裁，造成了非常嚴重的衝擊。

Is Russia running out of cash to fund its war in Ukraine?

俄羅斯是不是快沒現金來支付烏克蘭戰爭的開銷了？

That's the question I want to explore today with Alexander Kolyander, senior fellow at the center for European Policy Analysis and the author of a weekly guide to the Russian economy.

這就是我今天要和 Alexander Kolyander 一起探討的問題，他是歐洲政策分析中心的資深研究員，也是俄羅斯經濟每週指南的作者。

Alexander, thank you so much for joining us today.

Alexander，非常感謝你今天來參加我們的節目。

Let's begin with a really basic question before we get into the details.

在我們深入探討細節之前，我們先從一個非常基本的問題開始。

How would you describe the state of the Russian economy right now?

你會怎麼形容俄羅斯經濟目前的狀況呢？

That would be the one word description of the state.

這就是對現況的一個詞的形容。

After two years of headlong growth, mostly fueled by the budgetary spending, Russian economy is definitely slowing down.

在經過兩年主要由財政支出帶動的飛速成長後，俄羅斯經濟明顯放緩。

Just to give you the figures, GDP growth in the past year was above 4%.

數據顯示，去年的 GDP 成長率超過 4%。

For the year 2025, we expect barely 1% growth, probably less.

預計 2025 年的成長率將不到 1%，甚至可能更低。

It is natural state of affairs because budgetary spending created high inflation and the central bank had to increase the base rate, which cooled down the whole economy.

這是很自然的狀況，因為財政支出造成了高通膨，而中央銀行不得不提高基本利率，這冷卻了整個經濟。

And the economy is, well, we can say not growing anymore as, as it did in the past two years.

經濟，嗯，可以說已經不像過去兩年那樣成長了。

However, we see that real incomes continue to grow simply because Russia doesn't have enough people to fill all the job it has created and also to satisfy the desires of the army to put more people on the front lines.

然而，我們看到實質所得持續成長，這單純是因為俄羅斯沒有足夠的人力來填補所有創造出來的職位，也無法滿足軍隊將更多人派往前線的需求。

But credit is down, lending is down, and consumer spending is also down.

但信貸下降，貸款減少，消費者支出也隨之下降。

We see that in the past several months, Russia's industrial production started to slow down.

我們看到，過去幾個月，俄羅斯的工業生產開始放緩。

幾乎可以說，幾乎沒有成長了。

There is an uptick in October, but apart from that, we see that there is no growth.

十月份有稍微上升，但除此之外，我們看到沒有成長。

And this no growth situation applies even to the military production.

而這種沒有成長的情況，甚至也適用於軍事生產。

Russia continues to sell oil which supports its budget.

俄羅斯持續賣油，這支撐了它的預算。

But mostly the budget is supported by higher taxes.

但預算主要還是靠提高稅收來支撐。

To fill the budgetary gap, the government had to increase taxes on basically everything.

為了填補財政缺口，政府不得不對幾乎所有東西加稅。

So next year the Russians will see an increased vat, more taxes on small and medium sized businesses, and

所以明年俄羅斯人會看到增值稅提高，中小企業稅收增加，還有

a higher cost of all the government and the state services.

政府和國家服務的成本都會提高。

So the bottom line is economy is slowing down.

所以總結來說，經濟正在放緩。

The government is in dire straits to balance its books, but it manages.

政府在平衡收支方面陷入困境，但它還是做到了。

It gathers more taxes, it collects more fines, it is still selling oil.

它會徵收更多稅金，收取更多罰款，而且還在賣石油。

And the overall economy is not collapsing, it just going on.

整體經濟並沒有崩潰，只是還在運轉。

好的，所以目前來說是撐住了。

But as you mentioned, there are many signs of growing weakness.

但就像你說的，有很多跡象顯示情況正在惡化。

I want to talk to you about the sanctions because up to now the narrative has been that Russia has been weathering Western sanctions relatively well.

我想跟各位談談制裁，因為到目前為止，大家普遍認為俄羅斯已經相對順利地度過了西方制裁。

This latest round from the US Is expected to hit a little harder.

這最新一輪美國的制裁預計會稍微嚴厲一些。

It manages to circumvent the majority of the technological sanctions and it continues to sell oil.

它設法規避了大多數技術制裁，並且持續銷售石油。

The recent sanctions blow from the United States.

The sanctions against Russia's two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, hit really hard.

針對俄羅斯兩大石油公司 Rosneft 和 Lukoil 的制裁，打擊非常沉重。

The reason for that is not because the United States stopped buying Russia Russian oil.

原因不是因為美國停止購買俄羅斯石油。

It hasn't been doing so for quite a while, but

rather because Russia's main buyers in India, in Turkey, and

因為俄羅斯在印度、土耳其，以及

most mainly in China, decided to sit and wait and see whether they're under threat of American secondary sanctions.

最主要是中國的主要買家，決定觀望，看看他們是否會面臨美國次級制裁的威脅。

So at the moment we see that the discount on Russian oil is widening and Russia is struggling to sell as much oil as it did previously.

所以目前我們看到俄羅斯石油的折扣正在擴大，俄羅斯也難以像以前一樣銷售那麼多石油。

I personally think that it's a temporary lull that China would find a way to accommodate a Russian sanctioned oil, even if sanctions stay in place.

我個人認為這只是暫時的平靜，中國會找到方法來接受被制裁的俄羅斯石油，即使制裁仍然存在。

And unless the United States decides to really enforce those sanctions really hard, Russia will find its way to live with those sanctions as well.

除非美國真的嚴格執行這些制裁，否則俄羅斯也會找到與這些制裁共存的方法。

And China will be able to buy Russian oil and manage to refine sanctioned oil as it did with Iranian oil.

中國也能購買俄羅斯石油，並設法精煉受制裁的石油，就像他們處理伊朗石油一樣。

There might be slightly lower revenue from oil, but

from the point of view of the budget, that almost doesn't matter because the budget taxes Russian oil companies depending on the volume they produce and the global oil price.

從預算的角度來看，這幾乎不重要，因為預算對俄羅斯石油公司的課稅是根據其產量和全球油價來決定的。

that will definitely affect their ability to develop brownfields and green fields in the future.

這肯定會影響他們未來開發舊油田和新油田的能力。

For the moment, this will not capsize Russian budget.

就目前而言，這不會讓俄羅斯的預算崩潰。

Okay, so there's flexibility built into that budget.

好的，所以這個預算有內建的彈性。

Now, in the past years, Russia has been allocating huge resources to the military, really at the expense of all other sectors.

過去幾年，俄羅斯一直將大量資源分配給軍事，嚴重犧牲了所有其他部門。

Do you have the sense that the ground is now shifting?

你有沒有感覺到現在的局勢正在改變？

The government reduced military spending for the next year a little bit, but

政府稍微削減了明年的軍事支出，但

it's mostly nominal because it increased spending on national security.

這大多是名義上的，因為他們增加了國家安全方面的支出。

And so if we combine those two lines, we'll see that the spending is almost flat.

所以如果我們把這兩項加起來，就會發現支出幾乎持平。

And the reason for that, as much as I can understand, is that the Russian military economy is just unable to grow.

而我所能理解的原因是，俄羅斯的軍事經濟根本無法成長。

So it doesn't matter how much money you inject in, is just unable to produce more.

所以不管你注入多少資金，它就是無法生產更多。

You mentioned earlier that next year's budget features a range of tax Increases, including on vat.

你剛才提到明年的預算包含一系列的稅收增加，包括增值稅。

How is that affecting public perceptions towards the war?

這對民眾對戰爭的看法有什麼影響？

It's difficult to answer because I don't live in Russia and it's difficult to trust any public opinion poll in Russia.

這很難回答，因為我不住在俄羅斯，而且很難相信俄羅斯的任何民意調查。

from what I hear and understand, people are getting tired of the war.

聽說大家對這場戰爭感到厭倦了。

There are no signs obviously of the Russians to revolt against high taxes or try to vote Putin out of his office.

俄羅斯人並沒有表現出任何要反抗高稅收或試圖投票罷免普丁的跡象。

the overall sense that life was pretty good in the past two years and now it's not so good is prevalent.

過去兩年生活過得還不錯，現在卻不如以往的感覺，這種普遍的看法確實存在。

We've also seen reports that Russia has been selling physical gold from its reserves for the first time.

我們也看到報導說，俄羅斯首次出售了儲備中的實體黃金。

That's an attempt to boost government funds.

這是為了增加政府資金的一種嘗試。

Assumedly, who is buying Russian gold and how should we interpret that development?

假設一下，是誰在買俄羅斯的黃金？我們又該如何解讀這個發展呢？

Well, it's mostly technical because Russia needs to sell liquid reserves from its national well being fund and after the sanctions is only liquid reserves.

嗯，這主要是技術層面的問題，因為俄羅斯需要出售國家福利基金裡的流動性儲備，而且在制裁之後，只剩下流動性儲備了。

這些流動性儲備包括黃金和人民幣。

However, first of all, the Russian government and especially the central bank doesn't want to sell all the Yuan reserves because that would deprive it of a possibility to smoothen the fluctuations of the exchange rate.

不過，首先，俄羅斯政府，尤其是中央銀行，不想賣掉所有人民幣儲備，因為這會剝奪他們平滑匯率波動的可能性。

And secondly, there is, I would say, enough Yuan owned by the Russians inside the country.

而且，我認為俄羅斯國內已經有足夠的人民幣了。

And that's why, given the rise of gold prices in the past, what, month, month and a half, Russia decided to sell a bit of oil.

這也是為什麼，考量到過去一個月到一個半月黃金價格的上漲，俄羅斯決定賣掉一些石油。

So this gold will be bought locally because Russian gold is sanctioned.

所以這些黃金會在國內被買走，因為俄羅斯的黃金受到制裁。

This will not affect the global price of gold.

And it's mostly done to balance the government books without depleting Russia's reserves of foreign currency.

這主要是為了平衡政府帳目，而不是耗盡俄羅斯的للعملة الأجنبية 儲備。

It is rather a technical and tactical move by the central bank to leave it with weapons to smoothen any kind of fluctuations in the exchange rate, balance the books and find buyers inside the country, which is probably easier for gold than for yuan at this moment.

這更像是中央銀行的一種技術性和戰術性操作，讓他們有工具來平滑任何匯率波動，平衡帳目，並在國內找到買家，這對黃金來說可能比人民幣更容易。

Now, all of this, of course, is happening against the backdrop of a proposed peace plan the US is trying to get Russia and Ukraine to agree to.

現在，這一切當然都是在美國試圖讓俄羅斯和烏克蘭同意的和平計畫提案的背景下發生的。

Do you think Russia's current economic troubles will be used as leverage at all?

你認為俄羅斯目前的經濟困境會被用來作為籌碼嗎？

I think that the Americans and whoever is talking to Russia would try to use it, but

我認為美國人以及任何與俄羅斯談判的人都會試圖利用這一點，但是

我不認為俄羅斯的經濟狀況會促使普丁更靈活。

The Russian government definitely sees problems, but those problems are not immediate.

俄羅斯政府肯定看到了問題，但這些問題並不緊急。

So far, with all the list of various problems, be it high rates, high debt, the cost of debt, technological problems and the likes Russia manages.

到目前為止，儘管面臨各種問題，包括高利率、高債務、債務成本、技術問題等等，俄羅斯都應對了。

So economic troubles are not forcing Putin to negotiate or to compromise.

所以經濟困境並沒有迫使普丁談判或妥協。

I think that the Russian government assumes that those problems will not materialize in the immediate future.

我認為俄羅斯政府認為這些問題在近期內不會顯現。

I think that the government is a little bit overoptimistic, that the problems might appear, and

我認為政府有點過於樂觀，這些問題可能會出現，