Name: 戰爭的經濟學是什麼？ (What are the economics of war?)
Uploaded: 2025-11-08T18:01:52.000Z
Duration: 8 min 23 s

This chart shows that after 20 years of relative peace, armed conflicts are once again on the rise and countries are investing in their armed forces again, with military expenditure reaching a peak of $2.4 trillion in 2023, the highest year on year rise since 2009.

這張圖顯示，在經歷了二十年的相對和平之後，武裝衝突再次抬頭，各國紛紛重新投資軍隊，軍事支出在2023年達到2.4兆美元的巔峰，是自2009年以來年增長率最高的一年。

On April 11, 2024, Emmanuel Macron opened a new production line at an ammunition factory in the south of France.

2024年4月11日，法國總統馬克宏在法國南部一家彈藥工廠為一條新產線揭幕。

基礎被動語態

The powders he's talking about are explosive powders used in these weapons, which were previously made in countries like Sweden.

他提到的粉末就是這些武器中使用的炸藥粉，過去這些炸藥粉都是由瑞典等國家製造的。

These howitzer rounds have been critical in the defense of Ukrainian territory since since the start of Russia's war in 2022.

自2022年俄羅斯開戰以來，這些榴彈砲彈在保衛烏克蘭領土方面一直發揮著關鍵作用。

This relocation is part of a bigger move by the French government to ramp up production of military equipment, including propulsion systems, electronic equipment and rubber tires.

這次搬遷是法國政府擴大軍事裝備生產計畫的一部分，包括推進系統、電子設備和橡膠輪胎。

The government says the financial investment is aimed at filling depleted supplies, supporting high technology development and the creation of new jobs.

政府表示，這項財政投資旨在補充耗盡的物資、支持高科技發展以及創造新的就業機會。

In Germany, arms maker Rheinmetall inaugurated a new factory in February of 2024 that will produce artillery, ammunition, explosives, rockets.

在德國，軍火製造商Rheinmetall於2024年2月啟用了一家新工廠，將生產火砲、彈藥、爆炸物和火箭。

Aerospace and defense company Kongsberg also opened a new anti ship and cruise missile manufacturing plant in Norway the same year.

航空航太與國防公司Kongsberg也在同年於挪威開設了一家新的反艦與巡弋飛彈製造廠。

But what does it mean to be in a war economy?

When you think of war, the first images that come to mind are likely to be the impact war has on human life, and

當你想到戰爭，腦中第一個浮現的畫面，很可能是戰爭對人類生命的影響，

But economics often determine what leads to a war, who wins the war, and

但經濟因素往往決定了戰爭的導火線、誰會贏得戰爭，以及

Take the Acre war, for example, a border conflict which broke out between Brazil and Bolivia in the late 19th century.

以亞馬遜戰爭為例，這是19世紀末巴西和玻利維亞之間爆發的一場邊境衝突。

The acre region was rich in rubber trees, and

as production of bicycles, cars and other means of transport ramped up, the latex cultivated and produced from the trees promised wealth to whoever controlled it.

隨著自行車、汽車和其他運輸工具的生產逐漸增加，這些樹木種植和生產的乳膠，承諾著能為控制它的人帶來財富。

Bolivia would go on to cede the territory to Brazil after four years of bloodshed.

經過四年的血腥衝突後，玻利維亞最終將該領土割讓給巴西。

When deciding to pivot towards a war economy, states must redirect resources and supply chains towards defence priorities.

當國家決定轉向戰時經濟時，必須將資源和供應鏈重新導向國防優先事項。

A common way to look at it is through the opportunity cost guns versus butter analogy.

一種常見的思考方式是從「槍砲與奶油」的機會成本類比來看。

The economic model describes the trade off in spending between national defence and social programs.

這個經濟模型描述了在國防和社會福利支出之間的權衡取捨。

The curve illustrates how producing more guns means making less butter and vice versa.

這條曲線說明瞭生產更多槍砲就意味著奶油產量減少，反之亦然。

And it's a massive trade off when you consider just how expensive war is.

當你仔細想想戰爭有多昂貴時，這是一個巨大的權衡。

One Javelin anti tank missile costs about $178,000.

一枚標槍反坦克飛彈大約要價17萬8千美元。

Since 2020, at least 10,000 of these have been sent to Ukraine by the US alone, an expense of at least $1.7 billion.

自2020年以來，僅美國就向烏克蘭運送了至少一萬枚，花費至少17億美元。

The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian affairs estimated in 2018 that the total economic Cost of conflict and violence in the world reached $14.3 trillion, or 12.6% of global GDP.

聯合國人道事務協調廳在2018年估計，全球衝突與暴力的總經濟成本達到14.3兆美元，相當於全球GDP的12.6%。

This figure rose to $17.5 trillion in 2022, or more than 17% of global GDP.

這個數字在2022年上升到17.5兆美元，或佔全球GDP的17%以上。

To cover this cost, the state must play a bigger role in the economy, moving closer to what's called a centrally planned economy.

為了支付這筆費用，國家必須在經濟中扮演更重要的角色，朝向所謂的中央計畫經濟發展。

This means a greater involvement in controlling labor production and the reallocation of resources.

這意味著要更大程度地介入勞動力生產和資源的重新分配。

With the need to grow their troops, governments either turn to voluntary enlistment or conscription, a compulsory enlistment of people in the military.

為了擴充兵力，各國政府會選擇志願役或徵兵制，也就是強制徵召人民入伍。

But this in turn reduces the size of available workforce, which weakens economic output.

但這反過來會減少可用的勞動力，進而削弱經濟產出。

As a result, in the short term, a war may appear to have a positive economic impact, thanks to low unemployment and big investment in large industries such as transport and technologies.

是以，短期來看，戰爭似乎會帶來正面的經濟影響，因為失業率低，而且運輸和科技等大型產業獲得了大量投資。

But as soon as a state turns to a war economy, with the high cost for weapons and defence, and

但一旦國家轉向戰時經濟，武器和國防的成本高昂，

the depletion of workers unable to fulfill the demands for food and other items, prices start to rise.

而且勞動力不足以滿足食物和其他物品的需求，物價就會開始上漲。

Often, price hikes may also cause a shadow economy, with items being bought and sold underground.

物價飆漲也常常會催生地下經濟，物品在檯面下進行買賣。

Take for instance, Yemen, which has been at war since 2014.

以葉門為例，這個國家自2014年以來一直處於戰爭狀態。

The sale of many everyday items is controlled by criminal networks.

許多日常用品的銷售都由犯罪網絡控制。

And there are reports of critical commodities like petrol being sold on the street in small containers at an inflated price.

而且有報導指出，汽油等關鍵民生物資在街頭以小容器販售，價格被哄抬。

There are three ways for states to finance taxation, borrowing and printing money, known as tributum in ancient Rome, Tax increase to support war are still common today.

國家有三種稅收、借貸和印鈔的方式來資助戰爭，這在古羅馬時期被稱為「tributum」，而現今增加稅收來支持戰爭仍很常見。

In June 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the biggest tax hike in almost 25 years to fund his war on Ukraine.

俄羅斯總統普丁在2024年6月宣佈了近25年來最大的增稅措施，以資助他對烏克蘭的戰爭。

But governments also resort to borrowing with compulsory or voluntary loans.

但政府也會透過強制或自願性貸款來借錢。

For example, when Nazi Germany occupied Greece, it forced the Greek national bank to issue a 476 million reichsmark compulsory loan, effectively used to cover the cost of of its occupation and military expenditure.

例如，納粹德國佔領希臘時，強迫希臘國家銀行發行了4.76億帝國馬克的強制性貸款，實際上是用來支付其佔領和軍事支出的費用。

Voluntary loans or government bonds are raised from the public banks or foreign loans.

自願性貸款或公債則是向大眾、銀行或透過外國貸款籌集。

Finally, states can fund their war efforts by printing money.

最後，國家可以透過印鈔來資助他們的戰爭努力。

But this can result in inflation and sometimes even hyperinflation.

但這可能導致通貨膨脹，有時甚至會引發惡性通貨膨脹。

A German woman is about to light a fire in her stove with Marx, the German currency after World War I.

一位德國婦女正準備用馬克（第一次世界大戰後的德國貨幣）來生火。

At that time, starting a fire with millions of Marx was cheaper than burning wood.

當時，用數百萬馬克生火比燒木頭還便宜。

In January 1923, a loaf of bread cost about 250 marks.

1923年1月，一條麵包大約要250馬克。

But by November of the same year, it had jumped to 200 trillion marks.

但到了同年11月，價格已經飆升到200兆馬克。

但所有的戰爭對經濟都是壞事嗎？

An analysis of nearly 400 wars fought in the past two centuries found that countries involved in wars away from home may not see any significant impact to their economies.

對過去兩個世紀近400場戰爭的分析發現，在海外作戰的國家，其經濟可能不會受到顯著影響。

Wars also often lead to breakthroughs in technological innovation, from gunpowder to longbows, submarines, radar and lasers.

戰爭也常常帶來科技創新的突破，從火藥到長弓、潛艦、雷達和雷射。

While public money is the main catalyst for developing new military products, the companies producing the goods are large beneficiaries.

雖然公共資金是開發新軍事產品的主要催化劑，但生產這些商品的軍火製造商卻是大贏家。

The two world wars saw French car company Renault and the American firm IBM reap the rewards of the war economy.

兩次世界大戰期間，法國汽車公司Renault和美國公司IBM都從戰時經濟中獲利。

The car manufacturer reoriented its production to trucks, tanks, plane engines and ammunition, and

這家汽車製造商將其生產重心轉向卡車、坦克、飛機引擎和彈藥，

As a result, Soit's revenue quadrupled from 54 million francs in 1914 to 249 million francs in 1919.

結果，Renault的營收從1914年的5400萬法郎翻漲到1919年的2.49億法郎。

Twenty years later, during World War II, IBM, famous for its data processing systems, added rifles, engine parts and bombsights to its production lines.

二十年後，第二次世界大戰期間，以資料處理系統聞名的IBM，也將步槍、引擎零件和轟炸瞄準器加入其生產線。

Its revenue jumped from $38 million in 1939 to $138 million in 1945.

其營收從1939年的3800萬美元躍升至1945年的1.38億美元。

But the biggest winners in wars are defense companies, whose stocks and bonds, also called war babies, can thrive when a conflict happens.

但戰爭中最大的贏家是國防公司，它們的股票和債券，也被稱為「戰爭寶寶」，在衝突發生時可以蓬勃發展。

In 2023, when Israel was attacked by the terrorist group Hamas, the share price of Europe's biggest defence companies jumped several points in just two days.

2023年，當以色列遭到恐怖組織哈瑪斯攻擊時，歐洲最大國防公司的股價在短短兩天內就上漲了好幾個百分點。

But is war really that good for business?

Whilst Russia, at war since February 2022, did see its economy slow following the invasion of Ukraine, the IMF says the country's China GDP should rise 3.2% in 2024, despite the military burden, pressures on the labour market and international sanctions.

雖然俄羅斯自2022年2月開戰以來，經濟確實因入侵烏克蘭而放緩，但IMF表示，儘管有軍事負擔、勞動力市場壓力以及國際制裁，該國的GDP預計在2024年將成長3.2%。

But economists describe this kind of growth as the broken window fallacy.

但經濟學家將這種成長描述為「破窗效應」。

The concept argues that while repairing a window may seem to generate economic activity, the people and materials used to repair it could have been used elsewhere for more productive purposes.

這個概念認為，雖然修補窗戶看似能創造經濟活動，但用於修補的人力和材料本可以用於其他更有生產力的用途。

The same goes for the destruction coming from war, ultimately meaning a net loss for society.

戰爭帶來的破壞也是如此，最終意味著社會的淨損失。