Name: 這將 "真正摧毀 "美國 (This would 'literally destroy' America)
Uploaded: 2025-09-02T18:11:14.000Z
Duration: 13 min 49 s

情態副詞

This would literally destroy the US economy.

基礎被動語態

Trump's entire economic strategy was based upon tariffs.

特朗普的整個經濟戰略都以關稅為基礎。

If you remove the tariffs, Trump no longer has leverage over other countries, so his entire economic agenda is going to fail.

如果取消關稅，特朗普對其他國家就不再有影響力，是以他的整個經濟議程都將失敗。

And now the court has blocked Trump's tariffs, calling it unconstitutional, which means that most likely his entire economic strategy over the next 3 years is going to fail.

而現在，法院阻止了特朗普的關稅計劃，稱其違憲，這意味著很可能他未來三年的整個經濟戰略都將失敗。

So let's figure out what exactly is happening over here.

所以，讓我們弄清楚這裡到底發生了什麼。

Trump has imposed a 10% tariff baseline and reciprocal tariff on every single country.

特朗普對每個國家都徵收了 10%的關稅基線和對等關稅。

And there should be a base when you are imposing such economic policies, because they are going to have massive implications on every single America.

在推行這樣的經濟政策時，應該有一個基礎，因為這些政策會對每個美國人產生巨大影響。

So he cited the 1977 Emergency Economic Power Act, because according to him, the trade deficit that the United States is running, and the United States is actually running the biggest trade deficit in the world, he called it a national emergency.

是以，他引用了 1977 年的《緊急經濟權力法》，因為根據他的說法，美國正在運行的貿易赤字，實際上是世界上最大的貿易赤字，他稱之為國家緊急狀態。

But in a decision 7 to 4, the court decided that this kind of decision should be made by the congress and the president of the United States has no power to do that, which means that this decision is unconstitutional.

但在 7 比 4 的判決中，法院裁定此類決定應由國會做出，美國總統無權這樣做，這意味著這一決定是違憲的。

And according to Donald Trump, this would literally destroy the US economy.

而據唐納德-特朗普稱，這將真正摧毀美國經濟。

這就是他在推特上發佈的內容。

This decision would literally destroy the United States of America.

這一決定將真正摧毀美利堅合眾國。

So the real question is not, will that actually happen?

是以，真正的問題並不在於這是否真的會發生？

But to understand what is happening over here, we have to answer another basic question.

但要了解這裡發生了什麼，我們必須回答另一個基本問題。

Is the trade deficit a national threat to the United States?

貿易赤字是對美國的國家威脅嗎？

If you look at the trade balance of the United States over the course of the United States history, you will see that starting since 1971, the trade deficit has exploded.

如果你看看美國曆史上的貿易差額，就會發現從 1971 年開始，貿易逆差呈爆炸式增長。

Prior to that, the United States was running probably the largest trade surplus in the history of humanity or in the history of all modern nations.

在此之前，美國的貿易順差可能是人類歷史上或所有現代國家歷史上最大的。

So is Trump right that it's a national threat to the United States?

那麼，特朗普認為這是對美國的國家威脅，這是否正確？

Well, if you think about it, the answer is both yes and no.

仔細想想，答案是肯定的，也是否定的。

You see, whenever the trade deficit of any country grows, the demand for that currency of that country is going to weaken and over time that currency is going to become worthless.

要知道，只要任何國家的貿易赤字增加，該國對該貨幣的需求就會減弱，久而久之，該貨幣就會變得一文不值。

And that's why nations across the globe are trying their best to ensure either they have a trade balance or they have a trade surplus.

正因如此，全球各國都在盡力確保貿易平衡或貿易順差。

Because when you have a trade surplus, there is a lot of demand for your product.

因為當你有貿易順差時，你的產品就會有大量需求。

So your currency is going to strengthen and over time, your economy is going to grow.

是以，你的貨幣會走強，隨著時間的推移，你的經濟也會增長。

But the question is that the United States was running such a huge trade deficit.

但問題是，美國的貿易逆差如此之大。

Well, according to Donald Trump himself, the dollar is very strong.

據唐納德-特朗普自己說，美元非常堅挺。

So how is it possible that the United States runs such a huge trade deficit and the dollar keeps getting stronger?

那麼，美國為何會出現如此巨大的貿易赤字，而美元卻不斷走強呢？

The US dollar is not like any other currency.

The US dollar is the global reserve currency.

So there is always demand for the dollar, which means that other nations are willing to exchange real physical goods or even services for a piece of paper that the United States is going to print.

是以，美元總是有需求的，這意味著其他國家願意用真實的實物商品甚至服務來交換美國將要印製的一張紙。

That's one of the privileges you have if you have the global reserve currency.

這就是擁有全球儲備貨幣的特權之一。

And over the last 30 to 50 years, the global economy has been growing tremendously and the demand for the US dollar kept growing, which is why the trade deficit of the United States has kept growing.

而在過去的 30 到 50 年間，全球經濟一直在大幅增長，對美元的需求也不斷增長，這就是為什麼美國的貿易赤字一直在增長。

So imagine you have a country such as Japan.

The Chinese economy has grown substantially.

So the trade between Japan and China has grown.

是以，日本和中國之間的貿易不斷增長。

And for both of these countries to trade among one another, they agreed that they will use the global reserve currency, which is the dollar.

這兩個國家為了進行貿易，同意使用全球儲備貨幣，即美元。

So as these economies keep growing, the demand for the dollar keeps growing.

是以，隨著這些經濟體的不斷增長，對美元的需求也在不斷增長。

And that is why the trade deficit has grown so much.

這就是貿易赤字大幅增長的原因。

So the question is that, is that a threat to the United States?

那麼問題來了，這是對美國的威脅嗎？

The United States is literally losing nothing.

In fact, the United States is getting a lot out of this trade deficit because it does not have to produce as much as other nations.

事實上，美國從貿易逆差中得到了很多好處，因為它不必像其他國家那樣生產那麼多產品。

And the main export of the United States is the dollar itself.

而美國的主要出口產品就是美元本身。

The real threat to the United States is the federal deficit.

美國面臨的真正威脅是聯邦赤字。

And that's what people usually confuse the trade imbalance and the trade deficit along with federal deficit.

這就是人們通常把貿易失衡和貿易赤字與聯邦赤字混為一談的原因。

The federal deficit is how much the government is spending.

If the government is spending more than it's earning, then it's most likely borrowing that money and creating that deficit.

如果政府的支出大於收入，那麼它很可能是在借錢，從而造成赤字。

And if you look at the federal deficit of the United States, you will see that it only kept growing exponentially since the year 2000.

如果你看一下美國的聯邦赤字，就會發現它自 2000 年以來一直在成倍增長。

And nobody played a bigger role in growing the trade deficit of the United States other than Donald Trump.

除了唐納德-特朗普之外，沒有人在美國貿易赤字的增長中發揮了更大的作用。

When Obama became the president of the United States, the trade deficit was almost balanced.

奧巴馬就任美國總統時，貿易逆差幾乎達到平衡。

And then the 2008 financial crisis happens.

然後，2008 年金融危機發生了。

This is not about being a Democrat or a Republican.

這與是民主黨人還是共和黨人無關。

He literally became the president in 2008.

The 2008 financial crisis was a bubble that was created in the early 2000s when George Bush was the president.

2008 年的金融危機是 2000 年代初喬治-布什擔任總統時產生的保麗龍。

So to save the economy, they decided that they will literally bail out the entire economy, the real estate market, the large corporations, the too big to fail companies.

是以，為了拯救經濟，他們決定從字面上拯救整個經濟、房地產市場、大公司和那些大到不能倒的公司。

But you might say that that is too much and the government should not have done that.

但你可能會說，這太過分了，政府不應該這樣做。

However, by the end of Obama's presidency, he brought back the federal deficit to almost pre-2008 level.

然而，在奧巴馬總統任期結束時，他使聯邦赤字幾乎回到了 2008 年之前的水準。

Another couple of years and the United States would have balanced the budget.

再過幾年，美國就能實現預算平衡。

And then in 2016, Donald Trump becomes the president and in 2017, he passes his Trump's tax cuts.

然後在 2016 年，唐納德-特朗普成為總統，並在 2017 年通過了他的特朗普減稅政策。

And that's when the trade or the federal deficit exploded after that, because the federal revenue went down while expenses kept growing.

此後，貿易赤字或聯邦赤字爆炸性增長，因為聯邦收入減少，而支出卻持續增長。

The idea behind it was that over the long run, the US economy will grow much faster, which is going to pay back for all of these tax cuts.

其背後的理念是，從長遠來看，美國經濟的增長速度將大大加快，這將為所有這些減稅措施帶來回報。

到 2020 年，大流行病就會發生。

And again, this is not the fault of Donald Trump that the pandemic happened and the US government decides to bail out the entire US economy.

再說一遍，大流行病發生後，美國政府決定拯救整個美國經濟，這不是唐納德-特朗普的錯。

And Donald Trump is again the president of the United States.

唐納德-特朗普再次成為美國總統。

And he passed a big, beautiful bill, which is going to explode the federal deficit over the next couple of years.

他通過了一項龐大而漂亮的法案，這將在未來幾年內使聯邦赤字爆炸性增長。

In fact, they even raised the debt ceiling by about 5 trillion dollars so that during Trump's presidency, they can continue overspending by at least 5 trillion dollars.

事實上，他們甚至將債務上限提高了約 5 萬億美元，這樣在特朗普擔任總統期間，他們就可以繼續超支至少 5 萬億美元。

Last year, the United States spent 1 trillion dollars in interest payments.

去年，美國的利息支出高達 1 萬億美元。

And if this trend is going to continue and the United States will continue relying on borrowing money, the US government will have to allocate more of taxpayers' money to interest payments.

如果這一趨勢繼續下去，美國將繼續依賴借貸，那麼美國政府將不得不把納稅人的錢更多地用於支付利息。

And over time, the entire budget of the United States will simply go into interest payments and there will be no money left for social security, for Medicare, for defense or any other expenses.

隨著時間的推移，美國的全部預算都將用於支付利息，沒有任何資金可用於社會保障、醫療保險、國防或任何其他開支。

And that is the real national threat to the United States and not the trade deficit.

這才是美國真正的國家威脅，而不是貿易赤字。

So if you want to actually fix a problem that must be fixed, then this is the problem that you must fix and not the trade imbalance, because the trade imbalance provides the Americans cheaper products from all across the globe for essentially free just because the dollar is the global reserve currency.

是以，如果你想真正解決一個必須解決的問題，那麼這就是你必須解決的問題，而不是貿易失衡，因為貿易失衡為美國人提供了來自全球各地的更便宜的產品，而且基本上是免費的，只因為美元是全球儲備貨幣。

And if you think that you are being able to pay for the debt with tariff money, that is not happening because the trade between the United States and other countries over time is going to shrink since foreign companies cannot possibly compete in the US market because of these tariffs.

如果你認為你能夠用關稅資金來償還債務，那是不可能的，因為隨著時間的推移，美國和其他國家之間的貿易將會萎縮，因為外國公司不可能因為這些關稅而在美國市場上競爭。

Donald Trump instantly defended the tariffs.

唐納德-特朗普立即為關稅辯護。

According to him, more than 15 trillion dollars will be invested in the US, a record.

據他稱，在美國的投資將超過 15 萬億美元，創下歷史紀錄。

Much of this investment is because of tariffs.

這些投資的很大一部分是因為關稅。

If the radical left court is allowed to terminate these tariffs, almost all of these investments and much more will be immediately cancelled.

如果激進左翼法庭獲准終止這些關稅，幾乎所有這些投資和更多投資都將立即取消。

In many ways, we would become a third world nation.

在許多方面，我們將成為第三世界國家。

Multiple nations have pledged to invest trillions of dollars into the United States.

多個國家承諾向美國投資數萬億美元。

UAE 1.2 trillion dollars, Qatar 1.2, Japan 550 billion dollars and so on and so forth.

阿聯酋 1.2 萬億美元，卡達 1.2 萬億美元，日本 5 500 億美元，等等。

The EU 600 billion dollars plus 700 billion dollars in LNG.

歐盟 6000 億美元，加上 7000 億美元的液化天然氣。

The only problem with all of these deals that Donald Trump has made is that not a single of this deal was signed as an agreement.

唐納德-特朗普所做的所有這些交易的唯一問題是，這些交易中沒有一項是作為協議簽署的。

These were simply the pledges by foreign governments that we will do x, y, and z sometime in the future.

這些只是外國政府的承諾，即我們將在未來某個時候做 x、y 和 z。

But who will do that, where exactly that money will come from, how exactly it will be invested, nobody knows.

但由誰來做，這筆錢究竟從何而來，如何投資，誰也不知道。

For example, let me give you the EU deal.

舉個例子，讓我給你們講講歐盟的交易。

First of all, the United States does not even have the capacity to sell to the EU 750 billion dollars of LNG within the next 4 years.

首先，美國甚至沒有能力在未來 4 年內向歐盟出售 7 500 億美元的液化天然氣。

The United States simply does not have the capacity to do that.

Secondly, the 600 billion dollars, where exactly that money will come from.

第二，6000 億美元，這筆錢究竟從何而來？

So the EU has agreed, the EU is supposed to turn it into a legally binding agreement and then bring it to the parliament in the EU, then the EU countries should come up with a final agreement that they will agree upon and then they will sign it and then we will know that these are the EU countries.

是以，歐盟已經同意，歐盟應該把它變成一個具有法律約束力的協議，然後把它提交給歐盟的議會，然後歐盟國家應該拿出一個他們同意的最終協議，然後他們將簽署它，然後我們就會知道這些就是歐盟國家。

So France, for example, will allocate 100 billion dollars, Germany 100 billion dollars, Belgium 100 billion dollars, and so on and so forth.

例如，法國將撥款 1 000 億美元，德國 1 000 億美元，比利時 1 000 億美元，以此類推。

All we have is a pledge by the president of the EU.

我們有的只是歐盟主席的承諾。

And the same thing applies to all of them, which means that with the court blocking Trump's tariffs, most likely they won't do that.

同樣的道理也適用於所有這些國家，這意味著在法院阻止特朗普徵收關稅的情況下，他們很可能不會這麼做。