Name: 為什麼您的退休計劃可能適得其反？ (Why Your Retirement Plan Might Backfire)
Uploaded: 2025-08-27T00:30:50.000Z
Duration: 11 min 40 s

Sixty four percent of Americans surveyed are more worried about running out of money in retirement than they are about dying.

在接受調查的美國人中，64% 的人擔心退休後沒錢花比擔心死亡更嚴重。

And one in four Americans surveyed believe they won't ever be able to retire.

在接受調查的美國人中，每四個人中就有一個認為自己永遠無法退休。

The average life expectancy in OECD countries is about 80 years old.

經合組織國家的平均預期壽命約為 80 歲。

That's around a 13 year increase since 1960.

這大約是自 1960 年以來 13 年的增長。

As a result, retirement ages are rising in more than half of OECD countries.

是以，一半以上經合組織國家的退休年齡都在提高。

I think the key thing that drives that is an improvement in longevity and honestly in health.

我認為，推動這一進程的關鍵是提高壽命和健康水準。

We have more options for extended work lives today than we've ever had before and Americans are taking advantage of them.

今天，我們擁有比以往任何時候都更多的延長工作壽命的選擇，美國人正在利用這些選擇。

But wanting to work longer and being able to are not the same.

但想工作更長時間和能工作更長時間是兩碼事。

Over half the people who retire, retire sooner than they ever planned to.

半數以上的退休人員比他們計劃的退休時間更早退休。

The data in the U.S. shows that pretty much everybody relies on Social Security benefits, which is why it's so critical to restore the system to solvency.

美國的數據顯示，幾乎每個人都依賴於社會保障福利，這就是為什麼恢復該系統的償付能力如此重要。

Here's why younger Americans may end up working longer than their parents and whether planning to work longer will actually help people in retirement.

以下是為什麼年輕的美國人可能最終會比他們的父母工作更長時間，以及計劃工作更長時間是否真的會對人們的退休生活有所幫助。

Roughly eight in 10 Gen X, millennial and Gen Z workers believe it will be harder for their generation to achieve financial security than it was for their parents.

大約十分之八的 X 代、千禧一代和 Z 代工人認為，他們這一代人要實現財務安全將比他們的父輩更難。

Gen Z Americans are often very pessimistic about retirement.

Z 世代美國人通常對退休非常悲觀。

They look at Social Security, they see it's underfunded.

They realize they have to save a lot of money on their own.

他們意識到必須靠自己節省大量資金。

And so some of them are on the verge of giving up.

是以，他們中的一些人瀕臨放棄。

At the same time, the data show a much more positive story that at this stage in their lives, Gen Z has actually saved more for retirement than the generations who came before them.

與此同時，數據顯示了一個更為積極的情況，即在他們人生的這個階段，Z 世代實際上比他們的前輩為退休儲蓄了更多的錢。

Younger workers today often have more in retirement accounts by age 30 than boomers did.

現在的年輕工人到 30 歲時擁有的退休賬戶往往比 "繁榮時期 "的人要多。

Gen Z have been faced with having to do it themselves and they have savings in something called a 401K that older people didn't have because he didn't need it.

Z 世代一直面臨著必須自己動手的問題，他們在一種叫做 401K 的東西上有積蓄，而老年人沒有，因為他不需要。

But it doesn't mean that Gen Z is better off.

但這並不意味著 Z 世代的生活會更好。

The three main reasons younger Americans will likely have to work longer than baby boomers are, one, people are living longer and healthier lives.

美國年輕人可能比嬰兒潮一代人工作更長時間的三個主要原因是：第一，人們活得更長、更健康。

Two, Social Security benefits won't cover the full cost of living in retirement.

其二，社會保障福利無法支付退休後的全部生活費用。

And three, many Americans don't save enough throughout their lifetimes.

第三，許多美國人終其一生都沒有存夠錢。

If they do save, unexpected expenses can wipe out what they have.

如果他們有儲蓄，意外支出也會讓他們血本無歸。

For decades, retirement relied on a multi-pillared system economists call the three-legged stool.

幾十年來，退休生活一直依賴於經濟學家稱之為 "三條腿凳子 "的多支柱系統。

Social Security, pensions and personal savings.

社會保障、養老金和個人儲蓄。

But for most Americans, employer-funded pensions are gone.

但對大多數美國人來說，僱主出資的養老金已經一去不復返了。

In 1989, 63 percent of full-time workers at companies with more than 100 employees had a pension.

1989 年，在員工人數超過 100 人的公司中，63% 的全職員工擁有養老金。

Today, only about 15 percent of private industry workers do.

如今，只有約 15% 的私營企業工人這樣做。

Social Security was supposed to provide the foundation, private pensions on top of that, and then additional individual saving above that.

社會保障本應提供基礎，在此基礎上提供私人養老金，然後在此基礎上提供額外的個人儲蓄。

At the beginning of their careers, baby boomers relied on a system built around Social Security and employer-sponsored pensions, not personal investing.

嬰兒潮一代在職業生涯之初，依靠的是社會保障和僱主資助的養老金制度，而不是個人投資。

For most of the 1970s, when baby boomers were entering the workforce, 401ks didn't exist yet.

在 20 世紀 70 年代的大部分時間裡，當嬰兒潮一代進入勞動力市場時，還沒有 401 基金。

And even in the early 80s, they weren't widely available to workers.

即使在 80 年代初，工人們也無法廣泛使用這些設備。

They started being marketed to employers for their high-income people right around 1981.

1981 年左右，這些產品開始向僱主推銷，面向高收入人群。

And then the employer said, whoa, I can actually get rid of my real pension plan and just kind of slowly move my workforce to a voluntary 401k plan.

然後僱主說，哇哦，我其實可以取消真正的養老金計劃，只是慢慢地把我的員工轉移到自願的 401k 計劃中。

And it's great for me because I get credit for offering a retirement plan, but I don't have to put a cent in it.

這對我來說是件好事，因為我可以因為提供退休計劃而獲得榮譽，但我不用往裡面投一分錢。

The other issue is a lot of boomer retirement savings is nested in the equity of their homes, which younger people today may not be able to replicate.

另一個問題是，很多潮一代的退休儲蓄都嵌套在他們的房屋資產中，而現在的年輕人可能無法複製這一點。

And I know Gen Z is not better off because we know that home equity is probably not going to accrue like it did in the last 10 years.

我知道 Z 世代的情況也不會好到哪裡去，因為我們知道房屋淨值可能不會像過去 10 年那樣累積。

Baby boomers do enter retirement wealthier than previous generations, but that picture is uneven.

嬰兒潮一代進入退休年齡時確實比前幾代人富裕，但這種情況並不均衡。

Roughly half of boomers did not buy a home in their 20s and 30s.

大約有一半的潮一代在二三十歲時沒有買房。

The poorest boomers are worse off than their predecessors, and racial and educational gaps remain wide.

最貧窮的嬰兒潮一代比他們的前輩更窮，種族和教育差距仍然很大。

That wealth disparity repeats itself throughout generations.

While the average millennial has less wealth at the age of 35 than previous generations, the top 10 percent of millennials have 20 percent more wealth than the top baby boomers at the same age.

雖然千禧一代在 35 歲時的平均財富少於前幾代人，但排名前 10%的千禧一代的財富比同年齡段排名前 10%的嬰兒潮一代多 20%。

The other complication for Gen X, millennial and Gen Z workers is student loan debt.

對於 X 代、千禧年代和 Z 代工人來說，另一個複雜問題是學生貸款債務。

Younger cohorts are way more likely to carry student loans. 39 percent of Gen Z, 36 percent of millennials and 24 percent of Gen X have them compared with about 7 percent of boomers.

年輕一代更有可能揹負學生貸款。39% 的 Z 世代、36% 的千禧一代和 24% 的 X 世代都有學生貸款，而在潮一代中，這一比例僅為 7%。

All the stories that you get about Easy Street is really not a generational story.

所有關於逍遙街的故事都不是一代人的故事。

So the system has worked well for people with high incomes, steady jobs and basically steady lives.

是以，對於那些收入高、工作穩定、生活基本穩定的人來說，這個制度一直運行良好。

They didn't have a divorce here or there or tragedy with their children or their own medical problems.

他們沒有離婚，沒有孩子的悲劇，也沒有自己的醫療問題。

The shift from traditional defined benefit pensions to defined contribution retirement accounts like 401Ks, they don't penalize delayed retirement the way traditional pensions do.

從傳統的固定福利養老金向 401K 等固定繳費退休賬戶的轉變，不會像傳統養老金那樣對延遲退休進行懲罰。

With a 401K, the longer you work, the higher your benefit.

對於 401K，工作時間越長，福利越高。

With a traditional pension, there's often a point where you top out.

傳統養老金通常會有一個工資上限點。

But a majority of U.S. retirees rely heavily on Social Security. 58 percent say it's one of their major income sources, but only 35 percent of non-retirees expect to depend on it.

但大多數美國退休人員嚴重依賴社會保障。58% 的人說這是他們的主要收入來源之一，但只有 35% 的非退休人員預計會依賴社會保障。

That expectation gap has persisted every year since 2002.

自 2002 年以來，這種期望差距每年都在持續。

The public pension systems are suffering rising fiscal stress.

公共養老金制度正承受著越來越大的財政壓力。

And the U.S. is a good example where our Social Security system is facing insolvency within seven years.

美國就是一個很好的例子，我們的社會保障體系將在七年內面臨破產。

So working a little bit longer reduces the period of time you need to support yourself in old age and obviously contributes to a bigger nest egg to live on in retirement.

是以，工作時間稍長一點，就能減少你在老年時需要贍養自己的時間，這顯然有助於為退休後的生活積累更多的財富。

Social Security is financed on what's called a pay-as-you-go basis, which means that the taxes paid in by today's workers immediately go out the door to pay benefits for today's retirees.

社會保障的資金來源是所謂的 "現收現付"，這意味著今天的工人所繳納的稅款會立即用於支付今天退休人員的福利。

That means that Social Security is very subject to demographic changes to the number of workers per retiree.

這意味著，社會保障非常受人口結構變化對每名退休人員的影響。

If you go back to the 1960s, we had five or six workers paying in for every retiree collecting benefits from the system.

追溯到 20 世紀 60 年代，當時每有一名退休人員領取養老金，就會有五六名工人繳費。

Going forward, we'll only have around two workers per beneficiary.

今後，我們將只為每位受益人配備兩名左右的工作人員。

That means the cost burden on each worker goes up.

這意味著每個工人的成本負擔會增加。

But the work longer solution could run into real world limitations.

但工作時間較長的解決方案可能會受到現實世界的限制。

We saw unprecedented numbers of older people, and I mean like in their 50s, being pushed out of their job.

我們看到前所未有的老年人，我指的是 50 多歲的老年人被擠出工作崗位。

So you can't work longer because of age discrimination and because the labor market may not want the skills that you've acquired over 40 years because the labor market and the skills required have moved forward.

是以，你不能再工作更長時間，一是因為年齡歧視，二是因為勞動力市場可能不需要你 40 年來所掌握的技能，因為勞動力市場和所需技能已經向前發展了。

這就是這個想法背後的主要神話。

Well, we don't have to solve Social Security.

我們不需要解決社會保障問題。

We don't have to solve pensions because people just work longer.

我們不需要解決養老金問題，因為人們只需要延長工作時間。

In a perfect world, what I would like to see is a reform of Social Security that remains solvent so that people working today can predict with confidence that when they get to be 65 or 75 or 85, that the system would be there for them because that's what we need. 70% of U.S. workers surveyed who have not retired yet considered pushing back their retirement date, with nearly half of those surveyed citing fears that they wouldn't have enough money and 44% saying they're worried about inflation.

在一個完美的世界裡，我希望看到的是社會保險改革能夠保持償付能力，這樣今天工作的人們就可以有信心地預測，當他們到了65歲、75歲或85歲時，這個系統會為他們提供保障，因為這正是我們所需要的。在接受調查的尚未退休的美國工人中，70%的人考慮延後退休日期，其中近一半的人表示擔心沒有足夠的錢，44%的人表示擔心通貨膨脹。

Younger Americans are pessimistic about retirement, but many of them are saving.

美國年輕人對退休感到悲觀，但他們中的許多人都在儲蓄。

A lot of that anxiety seems to be about the future of Social Security.

很多焦慮似乎是關於社會保障的未來。

Millennials are saving at a higher rate at this age than Gen Xers or boomers.

千禧一代在這個年齡段的儲蓄率要高於 X 世代或嬰兒潮一代。

So I guess I would say if they're nervous and it's making them save, that's not necessarily a bad thing.

是以，我想我會說，如果他們緊張並是以節省了開支，這並不一定是壞事。

I'd like to tell my students, many of whom are Gen Z, Social Security will not disappear.

我想告訴我的學生們，他們中的許多人都是 Z 世代，社會保障不會消失。

So this is a major issue that Congress should have handled decades ago when we first became aware that Social Security faced this long run funding crisis.

是以，在幾十年前，當我們第一次意識到社會保障面臨長期資金危機時，國會就應該處理這個重大問題。

Unfortunately, it's always easier for politicians to kick the can down the road, to leave the decisions for a future Congress.

不幸的是，政客們總是更容易把問題一拖再拖，把決定權留給未來的國會。

But that only makes those decisions harder.

但這隻會讓這些決定變得更加困難。

So I don't fear that we're going to see a 20 percent benefit cut from Social Security in the near future.

是以，我不擔心我們會在不久的將來看到社會保障福利削減 20%。

President Donald Trump signed an executive order in August 2025 that clears a path for alternative assets such as cryptocurrencies and private equity to be added to 401Ks.

唐納德-特朗普總統於 2025 年 8 月簽署了一項行政命令，為加密貨幣和私募股權等另類資產加入 401K 清理了道路。

You know, we actually need a universal pension system and a robust Social Security system.

要知道，我們實際上需要一個全民養老金體系和一個健全的社會保障體系。

Gilarducci says these market-based tweaks distract from what she sees as a sustainable solution, which is an overhaul of federal retirement policy.

Gilarducci 說，這些基於市場的調整偏離了她所認為的可持續解決方案，即聯邦退休政策的徹底改革。

It's a recognition that more of us are going to be aging as the share of the population than ever before.

我們認識到，老齡化人口比例將超過以往任何時候。

Part of the Gray New Deal is to have the value that every adult who wants to work should have a job.

灰色新政 "的部分內容就是讓每一個想要工作的成年人都有一份工作。

So we should make the labor market as welcoming and as protective for older people as it is for younger people.

是以，我們應該讓勞動力市場像歡迎年輕人一樣歡迎老年人，像保護年輕人一樣保護老年人。

So we need actually more health and safety requirements, actually more workforce development and more enforcement of age discrimination.

是以，我們實際上需要更多的健康和安全要求，實際上需要更多的勞動力發展和更多的年齡歧視執法。

So I'm not saying everybody has to retire.

所以我不是說每個人都要退休。

If we want to work, we should be able to work.

如果我們想工作，就應該能夠工作。

Whatever age, government can be the employer of last resort, full employment guaranteed for every worker.

無論年齡大小，政府都可以成為最後的僱主，保證每個工人都能充分就業。

The idea that everyone is going to have to work to age 70 or something like that, I think, is just an exaggeration.

我認為，"每個人都要工作到 70 歲 "之類的說法只是誇大其詞。

In the past, you often had mandatory retirement ages where employers would require people to retire at a given age of 60 or 62.

過去，經常有強制性退休年齡，僱主會要求人們在 60 或 62 歲這一特定年齡退休。