Name: 2025 年股市大崩盤被取消 (2025 Stock Market Massive Crash Canceled)
Uploaded: 2025-08-17T18:00:23.000Z
Duration: 16 min 48 s

程度副詞

Almost every single indicator suggests that a recession is unavoidable.

幾乎所有指標都表明，經濟衰退不可避免。

Unless the federal reserve will cut the interest rates, we are going to have a recession.

除非美聯儲降低利率，否則我們將面臨經濟衰退。

And that's why a lot of experts suggest that the federal reserve most likely will cut the interest rate in September of this year, even though that's a horrible idea since we haven't fixed inflation yet and it's rising, it could actually hit 3 percent by the end of the year and that could damage the US economy tremendously.

這就是為什麼很多專家建議，美聯儲很可能在今年 9 月降息，儘管這是一個可怕的想法，因為我們還沒有解決通脹問題，而且通脹還在上升，到今年年底實際上可能達到 3%，這會對美國經濟造成巨大損害。

On one side, when there is a recession, investors tend to sell their stocks dramatically in order to avoid potential losses.

一方面，當經濟衰退時，投資者往往會大幅拋售股票，以避免潛在的損失。

On the other side, if you look at the stock market today, it is growing tremendously.

另一方面，如果你看看今天的股票市場，它正在飛速發展。

So, why the chances of a recession growing on one side and investors are not selling off their stocks and are not exiting their positions?

那麼，為什麼經濟衰退的可能性在一邊增長，而投資者卻不拋售股票，不退出頭寸呢？

Yes, there are some investors such as Warren Buffett, but if you look at the stock market, it is growing tremendously.

是的，有一些投資者，如沃倫-巴菲特，但如果你看看股票市場，它的增長是巨大的。

所以，這實際上是沒有意義的。

So, let me explain what exactly is happening.

那麼，讓我來解釋一下到底發生了什麼。

Chances of a recession are rising primarily because of the jobs report.

經濟衰退的可能性正在上升，這主要是因為就業報告。

The number of jobs that have been added in May and June are less than 20 thousand, which is catastrophic for the US economy.

5 月和 6 月新增就業崗位不足 2 萬個，這對美國經濟來說是災難性的。

That clearly indicates that companies are firing people since they expect that there will be a recession and they have to cut their When people have less jobs, they have less income, they will be able to spend less money, which is going to contract the economy.

這清楚地表明，公司正在解僱員工，因為他們預計將出現經濟衰退，他們必須削減員工。當人們的工作減少時，他們的收入減少，他們將能夠花費更少的錢，這將使經濟萎縮。

At the end of the day, the GDP grows because people are spending.

說到底，國內生產總值的增長是因為人們在消費。

If you are not spending, the economy is not growing, the market is not growing, nothing is growing, and unemployment is clearly rising.

如果你不消費，經濟就不會增長，市場就不會增長，什麼都不會增長，失業率就會明顯上升。

And the 73 thousand number of jobs being added in July most likely will be revised, so I won't be surprised if this number will also be down to 20 thousand.

而 7 月份新增的 7.3 萬個就業崗位很可能會被修正，所以如果這個數字也會下降到 2 萬個，我也不會感到驚訝。

And this is just the beginning, we have so much chaos in the economy.

而這僅僅是個開始，我們的經濟中存在著太多的混亂。

By the end of the year, or probably by next year, it is very likely that we won't be adding any kind of jobs, in fact, we will have negative numbers every single month.

到今年年底，或者很可能到明年，我們很可能不會增加任何形式的就業崗位，事實上，我們每個月都會出現負增長。

The second indicator is obviously personal spending.

It has also been going down since the beginning of the year.

自今年年初以來，它也一直在下降。

First of all, in the beginning of the year, in 2025, there was a plunge.

首先，今年年初，也就是 2025 年，出現了暴跌。

This spike was primarily because people thought that tariffs are going to increase prices.

價格飆升的主要原因是人們認為關稅會使價格上漲。

Obviously, they are going to increase prices, but there was so much talk about it in the media, so people panicked, they went to the stores and started buying stuff, because they thought that if they won't buy now, prices are going to rise.

很明顯，他們要漲價了，但媒體上有那麼多關於漲價的報道，所以人們慌了，他們跑到商店開始買東西，因為他們認為如果現在不買，價格就會上漲。

But usually, when there are increases in prices, they happen gradually, they won't happen overnight, because businesses do not want to lose their clients, so they might increase prices slightly.

但通常情況下，價格上漲是逐漸發生的，不會一蹴而就，因為企業不想失去客戶，所以可能會小幅提價。

At its peak, some of the tariffs on China went as high as 245%, so I won't actually blame the consumers for rushing to the stores and buying new iPhones, because they thought that the next iPhone will be 3000 dollars, I can buy it now for 1000 dollars, and maybe I can sell it for 3000 dollars a few months from now.

在最高峰時，對中國徵收的部分關稅高達 245%，所以我不會責怪消費者衝到商店購買新 iPhone，因為他們認為下一部 iPhone 將售價 3000 美元，我現在花 1000 美元就能買到，也許幾個月後我就能以 3000 美元的價格賣出。

However, since then, it has actually went down as well.

然而，從那以後，它實際上也下降了。

The next indicator is obviously the consumer sentiment, is how people feel about the market.

下一個指標顯然是消費者情緒，即人們對市場的看法。

It plunged in July of 2022, and that's because since the beginning of 2022 until the summer of 2022, the Federal Reserve was on a mission of hiking the interest rates every single press conference that there was.

它在 2022 年 7 月暴跌，這是因為自 2022 年初到 2022 年夏，美聯儲在每一次新聞發佈會上都肩負著加息的使命。

So many businesses went out of business, so many companies went out of business, and if you have seen the stock market, it actually crashed dramatically in 2022.

許多企業倒閉了，許多公司倒閉了，如果你看過股市，2022 年的股市實際上大幅崩盤。

The tech stocks were in such a chaos that a lot of people thought that this is probably the end of the tech revolution, and tech companies started firing people by hundreds of thousands of people.

科技股一片混亂，很多人認為這可能是科技革命的終結，科技公司開始成百上千地解僱員工。

We already had one negative GDP growth quarter, and that's already a very bad sign, because what is a recession at the end of the day?

我們已經經歷了一個國內生產總值負增長的季度，這已經是一個非常糟糕的信號，因為說到底什麼是衰退？

國內生產總值連續兩次負增長。

So if you have two negative consecutive GDP growth, we call that a recession.

是以，如果國內生產總值連續兩次出現負增長，我們就稱之為衰退。

Well, some people might say that we only had one, and the next one was 3% if you annualize it over the last 12 months, but I want you to check this number with a grain of salt, because that number could easily be revised.

有些人可能會說，我們只有一次，如果按過去 12 個月的年增長率計算，下一次的增長率是 3%，但我希望你們能慎重對待這個數字，因為這個數字很容易被修改。

You see, whenever we do this kind of statistics, it's very difficult to have the real numbers in the beginning, since you have part of the data, so you have the initial numbers, and then you have the rest of the data, and then you have to adjust everything in order to include all the data that came out within the next couple of months.

你看，每當我們做這種統計時，一開始很難有真實的數字，因為你有部分數據，所以你有最初的數字，然後你有其餘的數據，然後你必須調整一切，以包括接下來幾個月內出現的所有數據。

So this number will be revised by the end of September, and it could actually be a lot lower.

是以，這個數字將在 9 月底進行修訂，實際上可能會低很多。

We are having trade wars with every single country.

我們與每個國家都在打貿易戰。

There are a possibility of a recession arising, consumer sentiment is going down, unemployment is rising, and now if the fed will increase or lower interest rates in September, then chances of inflation will increase further, and we might have a 3% inflation rate by the end of this year.

經濟有可能出現衰退，消費者情緒正在下降，失業率正在上升，現在如果美聯儲將在 9 月份提高或降低利率，那麼通脹的可能性就會進一步增加，到今年年底我們的通脹率可能會達到 3%。

So despite all of these signs that a recession is on the horizon, the stock market is hitting a new record.

是以，儘管所有這些跡象都表明經濟衰退即將來臨，但股市卻創下了新紀錄。

Yes, there was a plunge in April of this year because of the liberation day.

是的，今年 4 月因為解放日的緣故出現了暴跌。

Everybody absolutely panicked, because nobody knew what's happening.

每個人都驚慌失措，因為沒人知道發生了什麼。

It was as if the entire world is on a trade war.

There hasn't been anything like that since like 1920s or 1930s, since the great depression, but we don't see that happening ever again.

自上世紀二三十年代大蕭條以來，還沒有出現過類似的情況，但我們認為這種情況不會再發生了。

Now, some people might say that the stock market does not represent the economy.

現在，有些人可能會說，股市並不代表經濟。

Well, it does, unfortunately, whether you like that or not.

不幸的是，不管你喜不喜歡，它的確如此。

Maybe it doesn't reflect it instantly, but over the long run, it is going to impact it.

也許它不會立即反映出來，但從長遠來看，它會產生影響。

A stock market is where stocks are traded.

股票市場是進行股票交易的地方。

And we as investors, when we look at the stocks, we don't look at simply numbers.

而我們作為投資者，在研究股票時，看的不僅僅是數字。

When we look at the stocks, we see money-making machines.

當我們看股票時，我們看到的是賺錢機器。

So we value the stocks based on how much money they are making today and how much money they could potentially make sometime in the future.

是以，我們對股票進行估值的依據是它們今天賺了多少錢，以及未來某個時候可能賺多少錢。

These are, if you simplify the entire investing, you can literally just bring it down to these two fundamental questions.

如果把整個投資過程簡單化，就可以把它歸結為這兩個基本問題。

So when we look at these companies and we see that they're How would they make less money now?

是以，當我們審視這些公司時，會發現它們現在賺的錢怎麼會少呢？

It will reflect in the revenues of these businesses.

這將反映在這些企業的收入中。

So at the end of the quarter, they will have less revenue made, less earnings made, which means that now they worth a lot less.

是以，在季度末，他們的收入和盈利都會減少，這意味著現在他們的價值也會大打折扣。

And that's why if you look at the PE ratio of the S&P 500, it is growing because stock prices are growing, but their earnings are not catching up.

這就是為什麼如果你看一下標準普爾 500 指數的市盈率，它在增長，因為股票價格在增長，但它們的盈利卻沒有跟上。

Since people are not spending money, that is clearly a clear indication of an overvaluation of the market.

既然人們不花錢，這顯然表明市場估值過高。

And that's why if you see a lot of people say that there is an everything bubble, that the market is significantly overvalued, and there is a lot of truth to it.

這就是為什麼你會看到很多人說一切都存在保麗龍，市場價值被嚴重高估，而這是有道理的。

So why isn't the market collapsing anytime soon?

那麼，為什麼市場不會很快崩潰呢？

Why investors are not selling their stocks in order to avoid potential losses?

為什麼投資者不拋售股票以避免潛在損失？

That is the fundamental question that we have to ask ourselves.

這是我們必須捫心自問的根本問題。

The basic or simple answer to all of that is that there is so much artificial demand in the market.

這一切的基本或簡單答案是，市場上存在著太多的人為需求。

That demand is being created by the government.

Now if you look at the government's spending and revenue for the last year, they spent 6.7 trillion dollars, but they have earned only 5 trillion dollars.

現在，如果你看看政府去年的支出和收入，他們花了 6.7 萬億美元，但只賺了 5 萬億美元。

So there is almost 1.8 trillion dollars of deficit.

是以，有近 1.8 萬億美元的赤字。

This is artificial spending by the government.

So when you have that so much artificial spending by the government entering into the economy, it keeps growing the economy.

是以，當政府有如此多的人為支出進入經濟時，就會使經濟持續增長。

Yes, the productivity isn't rising much, but it's impossible to not grow when you have so much spending created by the government.

是的，生產力並沒有提高多少，但政府創造了這麼多支出，不可能不增長。

This spending is not created by the people.

This spending is not created by the businesses.

This spending primarily created by the government and it ends up in the pockets of the people or the pockets of the government or the pockets of the corporations.

這些支出主要是由政府創造的，最終落入人民的口袋、政府的口袋或企業的口袋。

The government has to fix this problem because this is unsustainable.

政府必須解決這個問題，因為這是不可持續的。

And if you look at the estimates, then over the next couple of years, it will slow down to 1.5 trillion dollars.

根據估算，未來幾年，這一數字將放緩至 1.5 萬億美元。

These are the most conservative estimates that you see in front of you.

這是你眼前看到的最保守的估計。

For example, in 2025, it's estimated that it will be like 1.7 trillion dollars.

例如，據估計，2025 年將達到 1.7 萬億美元。

However, based on the current spending that we already have, it's probably going to be about 2 trillion dollars, maybe even 2.1 trillion dollars.

不過，根據我們目前已有的支出，可能會達到約 2 萬億美元，甚至 2.1 萬億美元。

Because the strategy of the current White House is that we are going to spend so much that the economy or the GDP will grow by more than 3%.

因為現任白宮的戰略是，我們將花費巨資，使經濟或國內生產總值增長超過 3%。

Like they even put the estimates that in order to pay back for the big beautiful bill, they will have a 4 to 5% GDP growth over the next four years.

比如，他們甚至估計，為了償還這筆漂亮的大賬單，未來四年的 GDP 增長率將達到 4%至 5%。

That is not happening, no matter how you look at it, but they will continue trying to do that.

不管怎麼看，這都是不可能的，但他們會繼續這樣做。

And the fundamental way to do that is by increasing the government spending because nobody in the economy can spend as much as the government.

而最根本的辦法就是增加政府支出，因為經濟中沒有人能夠像政府一樣花錢如流水。

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2025 年股市大崩盤被取消 (2025 Stock Market Massive Crash Canceled)

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