Name: 美聯儲內部問題重重 (Something is deeply wrong Inside the Federal Reserve)
Uploaded: 2025-08-10T18:13:09.000Z
Duration: 11 min 39 s

There is something deeply wrong inside the federal reserve.

現在進行式

The federal reserve is facing a challenge that it doesn't know how to solve.

美聯儲正面臨著一個不知如何解決的挑戰。

情態助動詞 A2

In fact, this problem can break the federal reserve.

事實上，這個問題會讓聯邦儲備局崩潰。

This problem is so big that the fed wasn't created to solve it in the first place.

這個問題如此之大，以至於美聯儲一開始就不是為了解決這個問題而成立的。

If you think that I am exaggerating, just watch the video till the end and you will get it.

如果你覺得我在誇大其詞，只要把視頻看完就明白了。

When we talked about the national debt of the United States, it seems like it has always been a problem.

當我們談到美國的國債時，這似乎一直是個問題。

Yes, the US government has always had some debts, but it wasn't so big that it was a  In fact, if you look at it, you will find out that in 2008, the national debt was about 9.4 trillion dollars.

是的，美國政府一直都有一些債務，但並沒有大到令人震驚的地步。 事實上，如果你看一下，就會發現 2008 年的國債約為 9.4 萬億美元。

However, if you compare that to previous years, you will find out that that debt was accumulated throughout the entire history of the United States.

然而，如果將這一數字與往年相比，就會發現這些債務是在整個美國曆史上積累起來的。

And then in the next 11 years, the US government accumulates 14 trillion dollars.

然後在接下來的 11 年裡，美國政府積累了 14 萬億美元。

So since the inception of the United States till 2008, it was 9.4 trillion dollars.

是以，自美國建國以來到 2008 年，共花費了 9.4 萬億美元。

And then in the next 11 years, it adds up another 14 trillion dollars.

然後在接下來的 11 年裡，又增加了 14 萬億美元。

Do you see where the problem with the national debt came from?

你知道國債問題從何而來了嗎？

Because in the following years, it gets a lot worse.

因為在接下來的幾年裡，情況會變得更糟。

Then in the next 5 years, the government accumulates an extra 14 trillion dollars in national debt.

在接下來的 5 年裡，政府又積累了 14 萬億美元的國債。

So since 2008, the US government accumulates 28 trillion dollars of debt.

是以，自 2008 年以來，美國政府積累了 28 萬億美元的債務。

That is a lot more than the 9 trillion dollars that it accumulated in its almost 250 years.

這比它近 250 年積累的 9 萬億美元要多得多。

So the real question is that, what exactly happened after 2008 that the US government got so addicted to debt?

是以，真正的問題是，2008 年之後究竟發生了什麼，讓美國政府如此沉迷於債務？

Well, because the Fed has lowered down interest rates to almost 0%.

嗯，因為美聯儲已將利率下調至接近 0%。

This is when the 14 trillion dollars was accumulated.

14 萬億美元就是在這個時候積累起來的。

Then the next phase was between 2020 and 2022 when an extra 14 trillion dollars was accumulated.

下一階段是 2020 年至 2022 年，這期間又積累了 14 萬億美元。

From now onwards, even though the interest rates are extremely high, the government continues to accumulate a lot of debts because it has no other option but to borrow a lot of money since it's running a huge deficit.

從現在開始，即使利率極高，政府也會繼續積累大量債務，因為它別無選擇，只能借大量的錢，因為它有巨大的赤字。

On one side, should it save the government of the United States or it should care about the creditors?

一邊是拯救美國政府，一邊是關心債權人？

We have 37 trillion dollars of debt, and the government is in trouble.

我們有 37 萬億美元的債務，政府陷入困境。

It's spending over a trillion dollars in interest payments, and it's probably the biggest problem that the government is facing right now.

它的利息支出超過了一萬億美元，這可能是政府目前面臨的最大問題。

And lowering interest rates is going to ease up that pressure on the government.

而降低利率將減輕政府的壓力。

On the other side, there are people who loan that money to the government of the United States, and if you lower down interest rates, you are going to hurt them because inflation is going to rise and they are not going to make any kind of real money on their investments.

另一方面，有些人把錢借給了美國政府，如果你降低利率，就會損害他們的利益，因為通脹會上升，他們的投資將無法真正賺錢。

Especially if you look at the inflation data, it's about 2.7 to 2.9 percent, it depends how you count it, but the trend is very clear that inflation is rising.

尤其是通脹數據，約為 2.7%至 2.9%，這取決於你如何計算，但通脹上升的趨勢非常明顯。

So if you lower down, for example, hypothetically interest rates to about 3 percent, and then inflation rises by about 0.5 percent, and then we have 3.5 percent inflation rate but interest rates are 3 percent, then the real question is to these creditors, does that make sense for them to keep investing in the US debt when their real return is negative 0.5 percent?

是以，舉例來說，如果把利率降低到 3%左右，然後通脹率上升 0.5%，通脹率為 3.5%，但利率為 3%，那麼對於這些債權人來說，真正的問題是，當他們的實際回報率為負 0.5%時，他們繼續投資美債有意義嗎？

They would be much better selling those investments and investing in elsewhere.

他們最好賣掉這些投資，投資到其他地方。

Because not only that they are not making any kind of profits on their investments, but rather, they are consistently losing money on their investments.

因為他們不僅沒有從投資中獲得任何利潤，反而在投資中不斷虧損。

And by looking at the budget of the US government, you can see that this problem is not a one-day problem or a one-year problem, this problem most likely is not going to be solved any time soon.

看看美國政府的預算就知道，這個問題不是一天兩天的問題，也不是一年兩年的問題，這個問題很可能不會很快得到解決。

So who exactly should the federal reserve save in this case?

那麼，在這種情況下，美聯儲到底應該救誰？

If you look at the nature of the US debt, you see that it has been changing over the last 20 years.

如果你看看美國債務的性質，就會發現它在過去 20 年裡一直在變化。

Back in 2006 and 2007, or even up to 2008, almost half of the debt was held by intra-governmental agencies.

早在 2006 年和 2007 年，甚至直到 2008 年，幾乎一半的債務都由政府內部機構持有。

While debt was 9 trillion dollars, it wasn't actually a huge problem because half of it was owned by different kind of government agencies.

雖然債務高達 9 萬億美元，但實際上這並不是一個大問題，因為其中一半是由不同類型的政府機構所擁有。

It's still considered as a real debt, but it's not a big deal because when one government agency owes to another government agency and there is a trouble, you can actually solve that problem.

這仍被視為真正的債務，但並不是什麼大問題，因為當一個政府機構欠另一個政府機構的債務並出現問題時，你實際上可以解決這個問題。

But, when the debt is being held by the public, a public means banks, financial institutions, foreign governments, you name it, you can actually fool them.

但是，當債務由公眾持有時，公眾指的是銀行、金融機構、外國政府，你說得出來，你其實可以騙過他們。

They have invested in the treasurer bills not because the government asked them so.

他們投資於司庫鈔票，並不是因為政府要求他們這樣做。

If you, for example, take social security funds, they are required by law to invest in the US treasurer bills, but those public investors, outside investors are not required to do so.

比如說，如果你拿社會保障基金舉例，法律規定它們必須投資於美國國庫券，但那些公共投資者、外部投資者卻沒有這個要求。

They have only invested in the US debt because they trust the US government, they trust the federal reserve, and they want to make a profit on their money.

他們之所以投資美債，只是因為他們信任美國政府，信任美聯儲，並想從他們的資金中獲利。

And that's why you have to care about their interests if you want them to continue investing in the US debt.

這就是為什麼如果你想讓他們繼續投資美債，就必須關心他們的利益。

However, the nature of the debt has changed over time.

然而，隨著時間的推移，債務的性質發生了變化。

Today, 80% of the US national debt is held by the public and just 20% of it is being held by intra-governmental agencies.

如今，美國國債的 80% 由公眾持有，只有 20% 由政府內部機構持有。

The government today must be much more responsible with its debt because most of the debt is being held by the government, or by the public, I would say.

今天的政府必須對其債務更加負責，因為大部分債務是由政府或公眾持有的。

And 9 trillion dollars of that is being held by foreign governments.

其中有 9 萬億美元被外國政府持有。

Foreign governments are not investing in the US because they want to help the United States.

外國政府在美國投資並不是因為他們想幫助美國。

It's because the US government provided them with good terms in the beginning and they trust the government of the United States.

這是因為美國政府當初為他們提供了良好的條件，他們信任美國政府。

But if they are going to make negative 0.5% on their investments in the US treasurer bills, what's the point of their investments?

但是，如果他們投資美國國庫券的收益為負 0.5%，那麼他們的投資還有什麼意義呢？

They would rather dump all of their treasurer bills and invest in their own countries, or invest in different assets, or even invest in the United States but in the US stock market where they could actually make real returns instead of losing their money to inflation because of the US government or because the federal reserve has lowered down interest rates.

他們寧願拋掉所有的國庫券，投資於自己的國家，或投資於不同的資產，甚至投資於美國，但投資於美國股市，因為在那裡他們可以真正獲得實際回報，而不是因為美國政府或聯邦儲備局降低利率而使他們的資金因通貨膨脹而損失。

So that puts a lot more pressure on the federal reserve before they can lower down interest rates.

是以，在降低利率之前，美聯儲面臨著更大的壓力。

They have to think about this, they have to think about the reputation of the dollar.

他們必須考慮到這一點，必須考慮到美元的聲譽。

Even though the Fed is kind of part of the government, but at the same time, it's a private institution, so they have to care about the interests of the government, especially about the reputation of the dollar in this case.

儘管美聯儲是政府的一部分，但同時它又是一個私人機構，所以他們必須關心政府的利益，特別是在這種情況下美元的聲譽。

But that even creates a very strange problem.

但這甚至造成了一個非常奇怪的問題。

Because we just recently had a disastrous jobs report.

因為我們最近剛剛發佈了一份災難性的就業報告。

We have actually overestimated the number of jobs that are being added, which means that the economy is slowing down, which means that the economy can get into a recession.

實際上，我們高估了新增就業崗位的數量，這意味著經濟正在放緩，意味著經濟可能陷入衰退。

Now, when unemployment starts rising, the government is in trouble because government revenues are going to dry up, since less people are working, less people are paying income tax, less people are paying payroll tax, and less people have money to spend.

現在，當失業率開始上升時，政府就會陷入困境，因為工作的人少了，繳納所得稅的人少了，繳納工資稅的人少了，有錢消費的人也少了，政府的收入就會枯竭。

And when people don't spend money, then the economy starts growing much slower, which is going to dry up again the government's revenue sources.

而當人們不花錢時，經濟增長就會開始放緩，政府的收入來源就會再次枯竭。

And that is why the federal reserve has to lower down interest rates to prevent that from happening.

這就是為什麼聯邦儲備必須降低利率，以防止這種情況發生。

And that's why the Fed has this dual mandate, that you are not only going to care about inflation, but at the same time, you have to care about the maximum employment, because maximum employment ensures that the government can still have their sources of revenue.

這就是為什麼美聯儲有雙重任務，即你不僅要關心通貨膨脹，同時還要關心最大就業率，因為最大就業率可以確保政府仍然有收入來源。

But the government is already running a 2 trillion dollar deficit, so it cannot possibly afford at this situation any kind of recession unless it fixes that problem.

但政府已經出現了 2 萬億美元的赤字，是以，除非解決這個問題，否則政府不可能在這種情況下承受任何形式的經濟衰退。

But on the other side, the creditors cannot possibly simply accept losing money on their investments just because the government of the United States has accumulated so much debt.

但另一方面，債權人不可能僅僅因為美國政府積累了如此多的債務而接受投資虧損。

It's not their problem, it is the problem of the US government, which puts extra pressure on the federal reserve.

這不是他們的問題，而是美國政府的問題，這給美聯儲帶來了額外的壓力。

And that's why you see this war between the white house on one side and the chairman of the fed, because they have entirely different priorities, who exactly should the federal reserve save in this case.

這就是為什麼你會看到白宮和美聯儲主席之間的戰爭，因為他們有完全不同的優先權，在這種情況下，美聯儲到底應該救誰？

But that gets a lot worse, because this decision has the potential to bankrupt social security.

但情況會變得更糟，因為這一決定有可能使社會保障破產。

Social security payments make up the largest portion of the US government's spending.

社會保障支出佔美國政府支出的最大部分。

And by law, the US government is obligated to make these payments since people are paying income tax, people are paying payroll tax, and now they want to see the benefits of their payments.

根據法律規定，美國政府有義務支付這些款項，因為人們繳納了所得稅、工資稅，現在他們希望看到自己支付的款項帶來的好處。

So you cannot possibly stop paying the social security payments.

是以，您不可能停止繳納社會保險金。

But another thing that is required by law is that the social security payments must be indexed based on the inflation data.

但法律規定的另一件事是，社會保障金必須根據通脹數據進行指數化。

Well, it isn't exactly the inflation data, but rather it is the COLA, what we call the cost of living adjustment, but it's pretty much very close to inflation.

嗯，這並不完全是通貨膨脹數據，而是 COLA，也就是我們所說的生活費用調整，但它非常接近通貨膨脹。

So if the cost of living is rising, you have to adjust the social security payments by law to adjust the cost of living, which means that if you lower down interest rates, then the cost of living is going to rise, because if inflation is rising, then the cost of living is rising.

是以，如果生活成本上升，你就必須依法調整社會保障金，以調整生活成本，這意味著如果你降低利率，那麼生活成本就會上升，因為如果通貨膨脹上升，那麼生活成本就會上升。

And that means that more payments should go towards social security payments, which is going to take a bigger portion of the government's spending.

這就意味著，更多的資金應該用於社會保障支付，而這將在政府支出中佔據更大的比重。

On one side, you are lowering down interest rates in order to make it easier for the government to pay off its debts.

一方面，降低利率是為了讓政府更容易償還債務。

On the other side, the government has to borrow more money because now it has to spend more money on social security payments.

另一方面，政府必須借更多的錢，因為現在它必須花更多的錢來支付社會保障。

Now currently, social security funds have around 3 trillion dollars in treasury bills.

目前，社會保障基金擁有約 3 萬億美元的國庫券。

It's important for them to have these investments since they are making a return on those investments and they can use those investments to pay off the social security payments.

對他們來說，擁有這些投資非常重要，因為他們可以從這些投資中獲得回報，並用這些投資來償還社會保障金。

But now, because they have to increase their payments and at the same time, they are not getting enough payments, they might need to start selling their treasury bills in the open market to raise enough money to make their social security payments.

但現在，由於他們必須增加付款，同時又得不到足夠的付款，他們可能需要開始在公開市場上出售國庫券，以籌集足夠的資金來支付社會保障金。

But when you are lowering down interest rates on one side, the demand for the treasury bills is going to go down, which means that social security funds will find it much more difficult to sell their treasury bills in the open market since creditors no longer have an interest rate to buy US treasury bills.

但是，當你一方降低利率時，對國庫券的需求就會下降，這意味著社會保障基金在公開市場上出售國庫券的難度會大大增加，因為債權人不再有利率來購買美國國庫券。

But you can still sell them if you lower down your prices.

但如果降低價格，還是可以賣出去的。

So social security trust funds might need to lower down their prices to be able to sell their treasury bills to still continue making their payments on social security benefits, which could speed up the bankruptcy of social security funds.

是以，社會保障信託基金可能需要降低價格，以便能夠出售國庫券，繼續支付社會保障福利金，這可能會加速社會保障基金的破產。

There has already been reports that by 2034, social security could run out of money.

已經有報道稱，到 2034 年，社會保障資金可能會耗盡。

But with these changes, that could happen as soon as 2030.

但是，隨著這些變化的發生，這種情況可能很快就會在 2030 年出現。

That's why it puts the federal reserve in a very strange situation.

這就是為什麼它讓美聯儲處於一個非常奇怪的境地。

In a situation that no matter what it does, it is going to hurt somebody.

在這種情況下，無論它做什麼，都會傷害到別人。

Either it's going to hurt the creditors or it's going to hurt the social security trust funds or it's going to hurt the government of the United States.

要麼損害債權人，要麼損害社會保障信託基金，要麼損害美國政府。

Now, most likely, the Fed is going to lower interest rates to a certain extent in September of this year because of the disastrous jobs report.

現在，美聯儲很可能會因為災難性的就業報告而在今年 9 月在一定程度上降低利率。

We have overestimated the number of jobs, and it means that, most likely, the US government is going to enter into a recession.

我們高估了就業崗位的數量，這意味著美國政府很可能會陷入衰退。

The government is not ready, it cannot possibly afford a recession right now.

政府還沒有準備好，現在不可能承受經濟衰退。

So it remains to be seen how the Fed will solve this crisis.

是以，美聯儲將如何解決這場危機還有待觀察。

Don't forget to check the links in the description of this video.

別忘了查看本視頻描述中的鏈接。

Thanks for watching and I will see you in the next one.

字幕列表影片播放

美聯儲內部問題重重 (Something is deeply wrong Inside the Federal Reserve)

situation

exaggerate

negative

revenue