Name: 開始了美元正在崩潰，情況比你想象的要糟糕得多 (It’s Started: The US Dollar is Collapsing and It’s Way Worse Than You Think)
Uploaded: 2025-08-09T18:29:08.000Z
Duration: 14 min 25 s

to 不定詞

The dollar is in danger, and China has the opportunity to hit the dollar so hard that the dollar will stop being the global currency reserve.

美元岌岌可危，而中國有機會重創美元，使美元不再成為全球貨幣儲備。

This is the first time since 1945 that the dollar is truly in danger.

這是自 1945 年以來美元第一次真正面臨危險。

祈使句型

So here in this video, let me give you the facts, let me give you the numbers, and you can judge everything by the end of this video.

是以，在這段視頻中，讓我給你事實，讓我給你數字，你可以在視頻結束時判斷一切。

Because China is dumping US treasury bills, and China is dumping US dollars, oversupplying the market with so many dollars that the dollar is losing its value significantly.

因為中國正在拋售美國國債，中國正在拋售美元，市場上美元供應過剩，以至於美元大幅貶值。

If you look at the countries that has most of the US dollars, you will quickly see at the top of the list China with around 3.6 trillion dollars of foreign reserve.

如果你看看擁有最多美元的國家，你很快就會發現中國以約 3.6 萬億美元的外匯存底位居榜首。

The same thing applies to Japan, Switzerland, and the rest of the countries that you see on the list.

日本、瑞士和名單上的其他國家也是如此。

And that's because countries since 1945 have been accumulating as many dollars as possible since the more dollars you have, the more you can trade with the rest of the world.

這是因為自 1945 年以來，各國一直在儘可能多地積累美元，因為美元越多，就越能與世界其他國家進行貿易。

And since the US market is the largest market in the world, countries mostly sold in the United States, and when you are selling in the US, you are actually obtaining dollars.

由於美國市場是世界上最大的市場，各國的產品大多銷往美國，而在美國銷售，實際上就是在獲取美元。

And that's how the rest of the world ended up with so many dollars.

就這樣，世界上其他地方才會有那麼多美元。

Now if all of these countries suddenly dump their dollars, that will flood the market with so many dollars, and if there won't be enough buyers on the other side, that could significantly devalue the dollar.

如果所有這些國家都突然拋售美元，那麼市場上就會充斥大量美元，如果另一方沒有足夠的買家，美元就會大幅貶值。

But having so many dollars is just part of the problem.

但擁有這麼多美元只是問題的一部分。

Because the second part of the problem are the treasury bills.

因為問題的第二部分是國庫券。

At the top of the list, we have Japan that has over a trillion dollars of US treasury bills.

排名第一的是日本，它擁有超過一萬億美元的美國國庫券。

That is followed with China with 760 billion dollars of US treasury bills, and then we have other countries.

緊隨其後的是中國，持有 7 600 億美元的美國國庫券。

In grand total, there are around 8.5 trillion dollars worth of treasury bills that are being held by foreign entities, by foreign governments, by foreign corporations.

外國實體、外國政府和外國公司總共持有價值約 8.5 萬億美元的國庫券。

And a treasury bill is a bill or a debt that the US government has issued and that was purchased by somebody.

國庫券是美國政府發行的、由他人購買的票據或債務。

And now the US government has to pay the people who actually hold those treasury bills an interest rate for loaning their money to the US government.

現在，美國政府必須向實際持有這些國庫券的人支付利息，因為他們把錢借給了美國政府。

The fact that the US dollar has been the global currency reserve was a double edged sword.

美元一直是全球貨幣儲備的事實是一把雙刃劍。

On one side, it allowed the United States to trade with the rest of the world and be the leader of the global trade, and it allowed the United States to have the soft power that no one else could actually have that kind of power.

一方面，它使美國能夠與世界其他國家進行貿易，併成為全球貿易的領導者；另一方面，它使美國能夠擁有其他人無法真正擁有的軟實力。

On the other side, over time, those countries weren't simply sitting around, but they have been developing and buying a lot of US treasury bills and a lot of US dollars.

另一方面，隨著時間的推移，這些國家並不是坐以待斃，而是一直在發展，購買了大量的美國國債和美元。

And now they have leverage over the United States.

現在，他們對美國有了影響力。

And if they suddenly start dumping their treasury bills, what's going to happen to the demand of the treasury bills?

如果他們突然開始拋售國庫券，對國庫券的需求會發生什麼變化？

Their demand is going to go down over time.

隨著時間的推移，他們的需求會下降。

Now another thing to consider is that United States have been a safe haven for investments.

另一個需要考慮的問題是，美國一直是投資的避風港。

So if you are making so much money, and you are investing a big amount of money, and you want the super safe investment possible, now historically, that has been gold.

是以，如果你賺了這麼多錢，又要投資一大筆錢，而且你希望儘可能進行超級安全的投資，那麼從歷史上看，那就是黃金。

But since 1945, the US treasury bills and the US dollar have been considered as good if not better than gold.

但自 1945 年以來，美國國庫券和美元一直被認為與黃金一樣好，甚至比黃金更好。

Because gold does not pay you interest, but US treasury bills pay you interest.

因為黃金不付利息，但美國國庫券付利息。

And will the US government ever go bankrupt?

And that's why whenever there is turmoil, whenever there is a crisis, whenever there is any kind of uncertainty, everybody suddenly just rushes to the market in order to buy the US treasury bills.

這就是為什麼每當出現動盪、每當出現危機、每當出現任何不確定因素時，所有人都會突然湧向市場，購買美國國債。

And that's why the yields on the treasury bills suddenly start going down.

這就是國庫券收益率突然開始下降的原因。

And that was probably the bet that Donald Trump and the White House made.

這可能就是唐納德-特朗普和白宮下的賭注。

They are like, we are going to cause this massive trade war all across the globe and everybody is going to panic and they will come and buy US treasury bills.

他們會說，我們將在全球範圍內引發大規模貿易戰，所有人都會恐慌，他們會來購買美國國債。

But you know what, the absolute opposite has happened.

There was no rush around the world to buy US government bonds, but people started dumping their treasury bills.

全世界並沒有急於購買美國政府債券，但人們開始拋售國庫券。

And a lot of people claim that it was China or Japan or some of those countries who are suffering from this trade deal or the trade war and they are dumping their treasury bills which is causing the treasury yields to rise.

很多人聲稱，是中國、日本或其他一些國家受到了貿易協議或貿易戰的影響，他們正在拋售國債，導致國債收益率上升。

Now that has a lot of implication, because if treasury yields suddenly rise in the US, that will force interest rates to rise, that will force the cost of everything to rise in the US.

現在，這有很大的影響，因為如果美國的國債收益率突然上升，這將迫使利率上升，這將迫使美國的一切成本上升。

And that is what is truly posing the real danger to the US dollar at this moment.

這才是當前美元面臨的真正危險。

If you compare the US dollar against the euro, it has been devaluing.

如果將美元與歐元進行比較，美元一直在貶值。

Just a few months ago, at the beginning of the year, a single dollar was as much as a single euro, but right now, a single dollar is equal to almost 1.3 euros.

就在幾個月前，也就是今年年初，1 美元相當於 1 歐元，但現在 1 美元幾乎等於 1.3 歐元。

And a weak dollar just signals one thing, that people are selling the dollars and they are buying alternative assets.

美元疲軟只是一個信號，即人們正在拋售美元，購買替代資產。

And this is a very clear signal that maybe the euro can replace the dollar as the global currency reserve.

這是一個非常明確的信號，即歐元或許可以取代美元成為全球儲備貨幣。

Again, this kind of massive changes never happen overnight, they take years, but when you have such a crisis of magnitude that we have right now, which is reshaping the global world order, at this moment, people should turn to the US, but they are not turning to the US, they are turning to alternative currencies, especially the euro, because the European Union showed itself that they are very calm, they can actually negotiate with everybody and they are very predictable allies.

同樣，這種巨大的變化從來不會在一夜之間發生，它們需要數年時間，但當你遇到像我們現在這樣的危機，它正在重塑全球世界秩序，此時此刻，人們應該求助於美國，但他們沒有求助於美國，而是求助於其他貨幣，尤其是歐元，因為歐盟表明他們非常冷靜，他們實際上可以與所有人進行談判，而且他們是非常可預測的盟友。

In business and investments, you want to be predictable.

在商業和投資中，你希望有可預見性。

I know that in business, sometimes when you are starting your business, you want to be unpredictable so that you can sign a very good deal.

我知道，在生意場上，有時當你開始創業時，你會希望自己是不可預知的，這樣你就能簽下一份非常好的協議。

But think about it from capital allocation.

但從資本分配的角度考慮問題。

Imagine you are Jamie Dimon, imagine you are sitting at the head of some kind of huge investment bank and you have to make a decision, you are allocating a bunch of money, billions of dollars, trillions of dollars.

想象一下，你是傑米-戴蒙（Jamie Dimon），想象一下，你正坐在某家大型投資銀行的負責人的位置上，你必須做出一個決定，你要分配一大筆錢，數十億美元，數萬億美元。

The only way you can do that is when you have a predictable outcome, the only way you can do that when you know the rules and you know how things are working because you are allocating so much capital.

要做到這一點，唯一的辦法就是有一個可預測的結果，唯一的辦法就是你知道規則，知道事情是如何運作的，因為你正在分配如此多的資本。

And you cannot possibly do that when things are very unclear and you don't know where things are going and that's another reason why the markets are crushing and have been crushing for the past 2 to 3 months.

而在情況非常不明朗、你不知道事情會怎麼發展的時候，你不可能做到這一點，這也是市場崩潰的另一個原因，而且在過去的兩三個月裡，市場一直在崩潰。

So what does a weak dollar mean for the economy overall?

那麼，美元疲軟對整體經濟意味著什麼？

First of all, imports are becoming much more expensive.

Because when you are importing anything from any other country, it doesn't matter whether it's China, it's Vietnam, it's the European Union, you have to check your dollars and you have to buy the Mercedes in Germany with Euros, so you have to change the dollars into the Euros to buy the German car, which means that if the dollar is becoming weaker compared to foreign countries or the foreign currencies, suddenly everything that you import from the rest of the world to the United States is going to rise in prices, which means that prices are about to increase, which means that inflation is coming.

因為當你從任何其他國家進口任何東西時，不管是中國、越南還是歐盟，你都必須檢查你的美元，你必須用歐元在德國買奔馳車，所以你必須把美元換成歐元才能買德國車，這意味著如果美元與外國或外國貨幣相比變得疲軟，突然之間，你從世界其他地方進口到美國的所有東西都會漲價，這意味著物價即將上漲，這意味著通貨膨脹即將到來。

And the United States imports trillions of dollars worth of goods.

美國進口了價值數萬億美元的商品。

Just last year, the United States imported around 3 trillion dollars worth of goods.

就在去年，美國進口了價值約 3 萬億美元的商品。

So if you are buying a car, a furniture, or maybe you are a developer who builds houses, the cost of those materials are going to rise, which means that a weaker dollar is going to cause massive inflation, at least in the short run, maybe in the long run.

是以，如果你要買一輛汽車、一件傢俱，或者你是一個建造房屋的開發商，這些材料的成本就會上升，這意味著美元走弱將導致大規模通貨膨脹，至少在短期內是這樣，也許從長遠來看也是這樣。

So if you want to actually cheaper prices, you want a stronger dollar.

是以，如果你想真正降低價格，就需要美元走強。

But a stronger dollar is also a double edged sword, on one side, it actually makes the imports much cheaper, but it makes the exports much more expensive.

但美元走強也是一把雙刃劍，一方面，它實際上使進口更加便宜，但同時也使出口更加昂貴。

If you want to boost the United States exports, yes, you want a cheaper dollar, but if you want to make it much cheaper for people to buy things in the United States, then you want a much stronger dollar.

如果你想促進美國的出口，是的，你需要更便宜的美元，但如果你想讓人們在美國買東西更便宜，那麼你需要更強勢的美元。

But what really scares me off is that a combination of a weak dollar and a tariff are going to literally spike the prices significantly.

但真正讓我感到恐懼的是，美元疲軟和關稅的共同作用將使價格大幅飆升。

So we already have like a 10% of baseline tariff, and then 10 to 20 or maybe 100% of reciprocal tariffs.

是以，我們已經有了 10%的基準關稅，然後是 10 到 20%，甚至 100%的互惠關稅。

Even if we assume that they will make a deal and there are not going to be any kind of reciprocal tariffs, there are going to be the 10% baseline tariff.

即使我們假定他們會達成協議，而且不會有任何形式的互惠關稅，也會有 10%的基準關稅。

Prices are going to increase by 10% guaranteed.

Secondly, prices will increase because of a weak dollar.

其次，美元疲軟會導致價格上漲。

And when prices rise, what do you think the Fed does in those circumstances?

當價格上漲時，你認為美聯儲在這種情況下會怎麼做？

It's to make sure that prices are stable in the United States.

這是為了確保美國的物價穩定。

And that means raising the interest rates.

And the latest assumptions compared to the last year were that interest rates are going to go down.

與去年相比，最新的假設是利率會下降。

But those assumptions were made on the fact that United States is not going to have the trade wars that it's having right now, and the US dollar will keep strengthening.

但這些假設的前提是，美國不會再像現在這樣打貿易戰，美元將繼續走強。

But the entire rules are changing right now that the Fed might be forced to raise the interest rates, which means that everything will rise again.

但現在整個規則正在發生變化，美聯儲可能會被迫提高利率，這意味著一切都會再次上升。

Most people, when they go and buy a new car, do you think they actually have the cash to buy that car?

大多數人在購買新車時，你認為他們真的有現金買車嗎？

When people buy houses, your mortgages could possibly rise and etc.

當人們買房時，您的抵押貸款可能會增加，等等。

You can apply that to everything that you actually buy right now.

你可以把它應用到你現在實際購買的所有東西上。

Secondly, the faith in the dollar because of that could actually diminish.

其次，人們對美元的信心可能會是以而減弱。

All of those countries that I gave you as an example right now are holding so much US dollars.

我舉例的這些國家現在都持有大量美元。

And if their dollars are becoming much less valuable, their faith in the dollars will become much less valuable.

如果他們的美元越來越不值錢，他們對美元的信心也會越來越不值錢。

Those people or 8.5 trillion dollars of treasury bills that are being held by foreign entities, they will start thinking, well, we actually have so many dollars, but our dollars right now can buy less things.

這些人或外國實體持有的 8.5 萬億美元國庫券，他們會開始想，好吧，我們其實有這麼多美元，但我們的美元現在能買的東西少了。

So does it make sense in an economic sense or investing sense to keep our money in the treasury bills, which means which could actually lead them to start selling their treasury bills and the US dollars, which could lead to a dominant effect where the dollar will start massively losing its value over time.

是以，從經濟意義或投資意義上講，把我們的錢存在國庫券裡是否有意義，這意味著實際上可能導致他們開始拋售國庫券和美元，這可能導致美元隨著時間的推移開始大量貶值的主導效應。

This is not going to happen like overnight.

There is still a lot of faith in the dollar and especially the investors.

人們仍然對美元，尤其是投資者充滿信心。

Nobody wants the dollar to actually crash.

Everybody is interested in the prosperity and the growth of the United States.

每個人都關心美國的繁榮和發展。

Even if you don't like the United States, even if you're China, even if you're Japan, who is now faced to make a bad deal with the United States, even the European Union, you have like trillions of dollars of US treasury bills.

即使你不喜歡美國，即使你是中國，即使你是日本（現在正面臨著與美國做一筆糟糕的交易），甚至是歐盟，你都擁有數萬億美元的美國國債。

You don't want the dollar to actually crash.

So everybody around the world is interested in the stability of the dollar.

是以，全世界每個人都對美元的穩定性感興趣。

But on the other side, compare the US dollar to any other investment.

但另一方面，將美元與任何其他投資進行比較。

If you see a stock that is crushing, what do you do?

如果你看到一隻股票被壓垮了，你會怎麼做？

You start panicking and you start selling because you want to minimize your losses.

你開始恐慌，開始拋售，因為你想把損失降到最低。

So if this entire situation could lead to a dominant effect, it could actually end up disastrously, especially when the United States is picking a huge fight with China and China has so much leverage over the United States.

是以，如果整個局勢可能導致主導效應，那麼它的結局實際上可能是災難性的，尤其是當美國正在與中國大打出手，而中國對美國又有如此大的影響力時。

So if the United States is going to push China to massively sell off their treasury bills and the US dollars, it could actually end up badly for the United States.

是以，如果美國要推動中國大規模拋售國庫券和美元，這實際上可能會對美國不利。

And finally, that is certainly going to lead to increase in asset prices.

最後，這肯定會導致資產價格上漲。

Any moment that you see that inflation is rising, any moment that you see that the dollar is becoming weaker, that will directly impact the asset prices in the market.

任何時候，只要你看到通脹上升，只要你看到美元走弱，都會直接影響市場上的資產價格。

So house prices, for example, are going to rise.