Name: 房地產市場年底前會崩潰嗎？- 銀行不想讓你知道的事 (Will The Housing Market Crash By The End of The Year? - What banks don't want you to know)
Uploaded: 2025-07-26T18:37:40.000Z
Duration: 15 min 50 s

The housing market is in a very weird position.

房地產市場正處於一個非常奇怪的境地。

情態副詞

On one side, people are waiting for the interest rates to be dropped so that they can finally buy a house with a low interest rate, just like in 2020 and 2021.

一方面，人們在等待降息，這樣他們終於可以像 2020 年和 2021 年那樣買到低利率的房子。

程度副詞

On the other side, we have inflated the housing market since 2020 that prices have grown by 50 percent, something very unusual for the housing market, which might indicate that we have created a housing bubble that's about to burst, which also provides you with an opportunity to buy a house at such a low price.

另一方面，自 2020 年以來，我們的房地產市場膨脹了，房價增長了 50%，這對房地產市場來說是非常不尋常的，這可能表明我們已經制造了一個即將破滅的房地產保麗龍，這也為你提供了一個以如此低的價格買房的機會。

And this is the Fed's plan for the housing market.

這就是美聯儲的房地產市場計劃。

In the short run, rates are high and that's going to weigh on housing activity, but the best thing we can do for the housing market, the absolute best thing is to restore price stability.

從短期來看，利率居高不下會對住房活動造成壓力，但我們能為住房市場做的最好的事情，絕對是恢復價格穩定。

Does restoring price stability means that we're going to crash the market?

恢復價格穩定就意味著我們要讓市場崩潰嗎？

Does that mean that interest rates will actually be dropped just like they were in 2020?

這是否意味著利率會像 2020 年那樣實際下降？

And is it possible to have the exact same interest rates of 2 to 3 percent in the foreseeable future?

在可預見的未來，利率有可能保持在 2%至 3%嗎？

Most people are looking at the interest rates and are waiting for them to be dropped.

大多數人都在關注利率，等待利率下降。

Because it means that lower interest rates, lower mortgage rates.

因為這意味著利率降低、抵押貸款利率降低。

But what if I told you that is absolutely wrong and low interest rates does not mean that mortgage rates are going to be dropped.

但如果我告訴你這是絕對錯誤的，低利率並不意味著抵押貸款利率會下降。

Yes, historically, there is a good case that could be made.

是的，從歷史上看，這是有道理的。

Because in 2020 and 2021, we had near zero interest rates.

因為在 2020 年和 2021 年，我們的利率幾乎為零。

And that resulted in such low mortgage rates.

這導致瞭如此低的抵押貸款利率。

Because mortgages are extremely unprofitable for the banks.

因為對銀行來說，抵押貸款是非常無利可圖的。

At the end of the day, every bank must be profitable.

歸根結底，每家銀行都必須盈利。

Their job is to make as much money as possible.

他們的工作就是儘可能多地賺錢。

And loaning you money at a low interest rate for the next 30 years is literally a huge risk because you don't know what's going to happen.

而在未來 30 年以低利率借給你錢，簡直就是冒著巨大的風險，因為你不知道會發生什麼。

The value of the dollar could drop dramatically.

Just look at what happened to the value of the dollar over the last 30 years.

看看過去 30 年美元價值的變化就知道了。

So most of these mortgages are extremely unprofitable and most of the banks would never actually provide you with such a mortgage.

是以，大多數抵押貸款都是無利可圖的，大多數銀行都不會向你提供這樣的抵押貸款。

But wait a second, the entire country is getting 30-year mortgages.

但是等一下，整個國家都在辦理 30 年期抵押貸款。

And that's because most of the mortgages are being subsidized by the government. 70% of all 30-year mortgages are being sold to these two corporations, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that are being backed by the government.

這是因為大部分抵押貸款都得到了政府的補貼。70%的30年期抵押貸款都是賣給房利美和房地美這兩家公司的，而這兩家公司都得到了政府的支持。

Which means that these banks that are providing 30-year mortgages do not have to be profitable.

這意味著這些提供 30 年期抵押貸款的銀行不必盈利。

When JP Morgan provides you with a 30-year mortgage, it doesn't have to be profitable because it takes that mortgage and instantly sells it to one of these corporations.

當摩根大通向你提供 30 年期的抵押貸款時，它並不一定要盈利，因為它拿著這筆抵押貸款，馬上就把它賣給了這些公司中的一家。

Now these government-backed corporations do not keep your mortgage.

現在，這些由政府支持的公司並不保留你的抵押貸款。

They take them together, bundle them under one joint security called mortgage-backed security and sell them to investors.

他們把這些抵押品放在一起，捆綁在一種叫做抵押貸款支持證券的聯合證券下，然後賣給投資者。

For these investors to buy mortgage-backed securities from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, they must provide them with a good interest rate.

這些投資者要從房利美和房地美購買抵押貸款支持證券，就必須為他們提供良好的利率。

So mortgage rates do not depend on the interest rates that are set by the Fed, but rather by how much or at what interest rate can we sell these mortgage-backed securities to these  And who is going to accept a 3% interest rate on a mortgage-backed security for the next 30 years?

是以，抵押貸款利率並不取決於美聯儲設定的利率，而是取決於我們能以多高或多低的利率將這些抵押貸款支持證券出售給這些人。

Now I want to ask you, are you ready to literally lock your money for the next 30 years getting 3% interest on your money?

現在我想問你，你準備好在未來的 30 年裡把你的錢鎖起來，獲得 3% 的利息了嗎？

That doesn't sound like a good idea, especially when the value of the dollar is rising so much.

這聽起來不是個好主意，尤其是在美元大幅升值的情況下。

Especially when in 2022 we had inflation of 9%.

尤其是 2022 年的通貨膨脹率高達 9%。

Who on earth is going to buy that kind of investment?

But wait a second, we had such a low interest rate, we had such a low mortgage rate, who actually bought them?

但是，等一下，我們的利率這麼低，我們的抵押貸款利率這麼低，究竟是誰買的呢？

And that's because the Federal Reserve stepped in and subsidized all of these mortgages.

這是因為美聯儲介入並補貼了所有這些抵押貸款。

Because these investors were not willing to invest in 3% mortgage rates, the Federal Reserve started massively buying them from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

由於這些投資者不願意投資於 3% 的抵押貸款利率，美聯儲開始從房利美和房地美手中大規模購買抵押貸款。

In fact, between 2020 and 2022, the Federal Reserve purchased 1.5 trillion dollars worth of mortgage-backed securities, which means that all of these loans that the banks provided you at such a low interest rate were only made possible because the Federal Reserve purchased them at a loss.

事實上，在 2020 年至 2022 年期間，美聯儲購買了價值 1.5 萬億美元的抵押貸款支持證券，這意味著銀行以如此低的利率向你們提供的所有這些貸款，都是因為美聯儲虧本購買才得以實現的。

In other words, the government simply subsidized your mortgage.

換句話說，政府只是補貼了你的抵押貸款。

That's the only reason that the US had 3% mortgage rates in 2020 and 2021.

這也是 2020 年和 2021 年美國抵押貸款利率為 3% 的唯一原因。

The balance sheet of the Fed instantly grew from around 4 trillion dollars to 9 trillion dollars, adding an additional 5 trillion dollars, and 1.5 trillion dollars of that were mortgage-backed securities.

美聯儲的資產負債表瞬間從約 4 萬億美元增長到 9 萬億美元，增加了 5 萬億美元，其中 1.5 萬億美元是抵押貸款支持證券。

In fact, the total amount of mortgage-backed securities in the balance sheet of the Fed grew to 2.3 trillion dollars.

事實上，美聯儲資產負債表中的抵押貸款支持證券總額已增至 2.3 萬億美元。

But the goal right now, in order to stabilize the economy and bring inflation down and stabilize the housing market, the Federal Reserve is planning or is actively trying to reduce its balance sheet and decrease mortgage-backed securities.

但現在的目標是，為了穩定經濟，降低通脹，穩定房地產市場，美聯儲正在計劃或積極嘗試縮減資產負債表，減少抵押貸款支持證券。

But the only way it can do that is by selling these mortgage-backed securities to somebody, and that somebody are investors over there.

但唯一的辦法就是把這些抵押貸款支持證券賣給某個人，而這個人就是那邊的投資者。

But for these investors to accept 3% mortgage rates, then inflation might be brought down to 2% so that these investors are at least making 1% in profit.

但是，要讓這些投資者接受 3%的按揭利率，那麼通脹率可能會降至 2%，這樣這些投資者至少可以獲得 1%的利潤。

Otherwise, none of these investors are going to buy from the Fed the mortgage-backed securities.

否則，這些投資者都不會向美聯儲購買抵押貸款支持證券。

And that's why the Fed is so eager to bring that inflation down to 2% and guarantee to those investors that we are not going to play this again, you can confidently buy all of these mortgage-backed securities.

這就是為什麼美聯儲如此迫切地希望將通脹率降至 2%，並向投資者保證我們不會再這樣做，你們可以放心地購買所有這些抵押貸款支持證券。

When 2008 financial crisis happened, it destroyed the entire housing market, and since then, until 2020, the housing market was entirely broken.

2008 年金融危機爆發時，摧毀了整個房地產市場，此後直到 2020 年，房地產市場完全崩潰。

Look at the supply of new houses back in 2008, they were extremely high, everybody was building.

看看 2008 年的新房供應量，當時的供應量非常高，每個人都在建房子。

When there is so much demand, you are as a construction worker or as a developer, you will continue building houses because on the other side, everybody wants to buy those houses.

當需求如此之大時，作為建築工人或開發商，你將繼續建造房屋，因為從另一個角度看，每個人都想購買這些房屋。

But suddenly, when house prices or housing market crushed, nobody was building houses anymore and the supply of houses dropped so much.

但突然之間，當房價或住房市場崩潰時，沒有人再建造房屋，房屋供應量大幅下降。

It took the housing market almost 5 years to come back to the exact same level as the 2008.

房地產市場花了近 5 年時間才恢復到與 2008 年完全相同的水準。

But during this period, a lot of construction companies, a lot of developers, lost their businesses, it was unprofitable to build houses anymore, a lot of investors stopped investing in the housing market.

但在此期間，很多建築公司、很多開發商都倒閉了，建房已經無利可圖，很多投資者也停止了對住房市場的投資。

And even after 2012, house prices grew by about 2% annually which made the entire industry extremely unprofitable.

即使在 2012 年之後，房價的年增長率也僅為 2%左右，這使得整個行業無利可圖。

So, for over a decade, demand for houses was so weak that it destroyed the entire market and it was undersupplied because nobody wanted to buy a house.

是以，在十多年的時間裡，房屋需求非常疲軟，以至於摧毀了整個市場，市場供不應求，因為沒有人願意買房。

And then 2020 happens and the demand for houses shoots to the roof for two reasons.

然後，2020 年發生了，出於兩個原因，對房屋的需求急劇上升。

Because the crisis happened and people realized that it's really great to have your own house, especially when you have a really huge house that you can literally just live in your backyard should another pandemic hit the world.

因為危機發生後，人們意識到，擁有自己的房子真的很棒，尤其是當你有一棟非常大的房子時，如果世界再次發生大流行病，你就可以住在自家後院了。

And secondly, interest rates were so low that people could afford really great houses for such a low price.

其次，利率如此之低，以至於人們可以用如此低的價格買到真正的好房子。

It was much more profitable to buy a house than rent a house.

So, the demand for houses rose again and now it's gonna take time for the market to adjust for the developers to build new houses.

是以，對房屋的需求再次上升，現在開發商建造新房需要時間來調整市場。

However, this time it's much more different than it was prior to 2008 or prior to 2020.

然而，這次的情況與 2008 年之前或 2020 年之前的情況大不相同。

Because we're facing a lot of other challenges such as the cost of labor shot to the roof.

因為我們還面臨著很多其他挑戰，比如人工成本被炒到了頂點。

It's much more expensive to buy houses right now.

The country is going through a lot of challenges.

All these challenges are making it much more difficult to meet the demand.

所有這些挑戰使得滿足需求變得更加困難。

But on the other side, the Fed wants to be extremely careful and the developers want to be extremely careful so that they do not oversupply the market just like they did in 2008 that would cause another financial crisis that almost took down the entire global economy.

但另一方面，美聯儲和開發商都希望非常謹慎，以免像 2008 年那樣造成市場供過於求，引發另一場幾乎拖垮整個全球經濟的金融危機。

Which is why the first priority of the Fed right now is to stabilize the entire market so that from now onwards, house prices will continue to grow from 2 to 5% in the best case scenario.

這就是為什麼美聯儲目前的首要任務是穩定整個市場，以便從現在起，房價在最好的情況下繼續保持 2%至 5%的增長。

There will be enough demand in the market but not too much for the market to be inflated or oversupplied and house prices will stop going down.

市場將有足夠的需求，但不會過多，以免市場膨脹或供過於求，房價將停止下跌。

And that is important to do so that you can continue selling mortgage-backed securities to investors because they will continue investing believing that there is always demand for  Because if you just go back to 2008, when everything crushed, investors weren't willing to buy those mortgage-backed securities.

這一點很重要，這樣你才能繼續向投資者出售抵押貸款支持證券，因為他們會繼續投資，相信需求總是存在的。

So the Fed stepped in and bought around 1.5 or 1.8 trillion dollars worth of these mortgage-backed securities to save the economy.

是以，美聯儲介入，購買了價值約 1.5 或 1.8 萬億美元的抵押貸款支持證券，以挽救經濟。

But the most important question is that, when are we going to have low mortgage rates again?

但最重要的問題是，我們何時才能再次享受低抵押貸款利率？

You have missed your opportunity to buy your dream house in 2020 and 2021.

您已經錯過了在 2020 年和 2021 年購買夢想房屋的機會。

And now you are wondering, are we going to have the exact same mortgage rates of 2 to 3% in the foreseeable future?

現在你想知道，在可預見的未來，我們的抵押貸款利率是否還會保持在 2% 到 3% 之間？

Does it make sense for you to wait in order to buy that house?

Now to answer that question, we have to understand how the market works.

要回答這個問題，我們必須瞭解市場是如何運作的。

And in this case, I am talking about huge investors, such as pension funds, the government, those people who cannot possibly take a lot of risk.

在這種情況下，我指的是鉅額投資者，如養老基金、政府，這些人不可能承擔很大的風險。

Those people are investing with hundreds of billions of dollars.

這些人的投資額高達數千億美元。

So when you have a pension fund, such as social security, you cannot risk your money in the stock market.

是以，當你擁有養老基金（如社會保障）時，就不能把錢投入股市冒險。

Yes, in the long run, you are going to make millions of dollars, if not billions of dollars.

是的，從長遠來看，你會賺到數百萬美元，甚至數十億美元。

If you start investing right now and you have a good investing strategy in the stock market, you can certainly make millions of dollars, if not tens of millions of dollars, even if you are on the average wage.

如果你現在就開始投資，並且在股市上有一個好的投資策略，那麼即使你的工資很一般，你也一定能賺到幾百萬美元，甚至幾千萬美元。

However, and that's why you probably should check the first link in the description to find out more about our academy and start investing now before it's too late.

不過，這就是為什麼您可能應該查看說明中的第一個鏈接，瞭解有關我們學院的更多資訊，並在為時已晚之前開始投資。

However, if you are a huge institutional investor that is investing hundreds of billions of dollars, you cannot take that kind of a risk because you need to have a constant cash flow.

但是，如果你是一個投資數千億美元的大型機構投資者，你就不能冒這種風險，因為你需要有持續的現金流。

So you are looking into the market and you have two main types of investments.

是以，您在市場上有兩大類投資。

These are risk-free investments, as we call them in the market.

這些就是我們在市場上所說的無風險投資。

On the other side, you have mortgage-backed securities.

另一方面是抵押貸款支持證券。

So for investors to choose mortgage-backed securities over the treasury bills, they must provide you with a slightly higher return, such as 1.5% to 2.5%.

是以，要讓投資者選擇抵押貸款支持證券而不是國庫券，它們必須為您提供稍高的回報率，如 1.5% 至 2.5%。

So investors in this case, they know that treasury bills are very safe investments and risk-free.

是以，在這種情況下，投資者知道國庫券是非常安全的投資，沒有風險。

On the other side, mortgage-backed securities are slightly more riskier, but they are providing you with a slightly higher return, which is why investors would actually invest in mortgage-backed securities.

另一方面，抵押貸款支持證券的風險略高，但它們能為你提供略高的回報，這也是投資者會實際投資抵押貸款支持證券的原因。

So because investors are ready to buy mortgage-backed securities, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac can sell them mortgage-backed securities, so they will continue buying mortgages from traditional banks such as JP Morgan, Chase, and other banks, and that is why those banks can provide you with a 30-year mortgage.

是以，由於投資者準備購買抵押貸款支持證券，房利美和房地美可以向他們出售抵押貸款支持證券，所以他們會繼續從摩根大通、大通等傳統銀行購買抵押貸款，這就是為什麼這些銀行可以向你提供 30 年期抵押貸款的原因。

So it depends on what interest rates they are willing to buy them.

是以，這取決於他們願意以何種利率購買。

But 10-year treasury bills are being traded at 4.2%, which means that mortgage-backed securities should be trading between 6 to 7%, and that is why mortgages right now are anything between 6 to 7%.

但 10 年期國庫券的交易價格為 4.2%，這意味著抵押貸款支持證券的交易價格應在 6%至 7%之間，這就是為什麼現在的抵押貸款價格在 6%至 7%之間。

So if you want mortgage-backed securities to go down, then you have to take a look at the treasury bills and find out when will the treasury bills have a much lower interest rate.

是以，如果你希望抵押貸款支持證券下跌，那麼你就必須看看國庫券，看看國庫券的利率什麼時候會低得多。

If treasury bills tomorrow would go to 2%, then mortgage-backed securities can be traded at 3.5% for example, so the banks will be able to provide you 3.5% mortgage rate because they know they can sell them to the investors.

如果明天國庫券漲到 2%，那麼抵押支持證券的交易價格就可以達到 3.5%，比如說，銀行就可以為你提供 3.5%的抵押貸款利率，因為他們知道可以賣給投資者。