Name: 大多數人都不知道特斯拉股票會發生什麼變化 (Most People Have No Idea What’s About To Happen To Tesla Stock)
Uploaded: 2025-07-24T19:08:12.000Z
Duration: 18 min 51 s

現在進行式

Elon Musk tried everything possible to make sure that the big beautiful bill is not going to pass the senate, but he failed.

埃隆-馬斯克（Elon Musk）想盡一切辦法確保這項美麗的大法案無法在參議院通過，但他失敗了。

to 不定詞

Because this big beautiful bill has all the potential to destroy the Tesla as a company.

因為這個美麗的大法案有可能摧毀特斯拉這個公司。

未來簡單式

In a few years from now, maybe we will look back at Tesla as if Tesla didn't exist at all.

幾年後，也許我們回顧特斯拉時，會覺得特斯拉根本不存在。

And if you think that I am exaggerating, here in this video, I am gonna explain to you why the big beautiful bill is going to crash the Tesla stock.

如果你認為我在誇大其詞，那麼在這段視頻中，我將向你解釋為什麼美麗的大法案會讓特斯拉股票崩潰。

So before you jump into conclusions and write down in the comments below, you understand nothing, please just watch the video, I am gonna explain everything.

所以，在你妄下結論並在下面的評論中寫下 "你什麼都不懂 "之前，請先看一下視頻，我會向你解釋一切。

You see, Tesla is one of the largest companies in the world, not just in the United States, at a valuation of around a trillion dollars.

要知道，特斯拉是世界上最大的公司之一，不僅僅是在美國，其估值約為萬億美元。

And part of the reason that Elon is one of the richest people, if not the richest person in the world, is because he holds 13% of the company.

埃隆之所以能成為最富有的人之一，甚至是世界上最富有的人，部分原因就在於他持有公司 13% 的股份。

And if Tesla worth a trillion dollars, then it's 130 billion dollars.

如果特斯拉價值一萬億美元，那麼它就是 1300 億美元。

But at its peak, Tesla used to worth somewhere around 1.2 to 1.3 trillion dollars.

但在巔峰時期，特斯拉的市值約為 1.2 至 1.3 萬億美元。

And to understand how the big beautiful bill is going to impact Tesla overall, you have to understand how Tesla works.

要了解美麗的大法案對特斯拉的整體影響，就必須瞭解特斯拉是如何運作的。

Now a lot of people think that, oh Tesla this huge company that simply sells electrical cars.

現在，很多人都認為，特斯拉是一家銷售電動汽車的大公司。

But Tesla is very deeply dependent on the government of the United States.

但特斯拉在很大程度上依賴於美國政府。

And without the help of the government, Tesla wouldn't be such a valuable company or the most valuable car company in the world.

如果沒有政府的幫助，特斯拉就不會成為如此有價值的公司，也不會成為世界上最有價值的汽車公司。

And Elon wouldn't be the wealthiest person in the world with a valuation of a net worth of 400 billion dollars, potentially going to a trillion dollars by 2027.

埃隆也不會成為世界上最富有的人，他的淨資產估值為 4000 億美元，到 2027 年有可能達到萬億美元。

Now I can tell you for a fact that's not happening, forget Elon trillionaire the next 3 to 4 years, or at least for as long as Trump is the president.

現在我可以告訴你一個事實，那就是在未來 3 到 4 年內，或者至少在特朗普擔任總統期間，埃隆-萬億富翁不會出現。

Because Trump now did everything possible to crush Tesla and crush Elon's net worth.

因為特朗普現在想盡一切辦法壓垮特斯拉，壓垮埃隆的淨資產。

So how exactly Tesla works as a business?

那麼，特斯拉究竟是如何運作的呢？

One of the things that helped Tesla a lot is back in 2010 when United States introduced EV tax credits.

早在 2010 年，美國就推出了電動汽車稅收抵免政策，這對特斯拉幫助很大。

And that basically means that every single person who is going to buy Tesla can receive 7500 dollars tax credit.

這基本上意味著，每一個要購買特斯拉的人都可以獲得 7500 美元的稅收抵免。

So imagine you are making, let's say 70K dollars.

想象一下，你現在的收入是 7 萬美元。

And at the end of the year, you have to pay 9K dollars in taxes.

到了年底，你還得交 9000 美元的稅。

But what if the government is going to tell you, listen, if you go and buy an electrical car company, you can avoid 7500 dollars in taxes.

但是，如果政府要告訴你，聽著，如果你去購買一家電動汽車公司，你可以免去 7500 美元的稅。

And then you look around and Tesla is the only car company that produces electrical cars.

然後你環顧四周，特斯拉是唯一一家生產電動汽車的汽車公司。

So you go and buy a Tesla of let's say for 50K dollars.

比如說，你花 5 萬美元買了一輛特斯拉。

And instead of paying 9K dollars in taxes, you deduct 7500 dollars and you pay the final tax of 1500 dollars.

你不用繳納 9000 美元的稅款，而是扣除 7500 美元，最後繳納 1500 美元的稅款。

The government was literally losing billions of dollars every single year for Tesla to keep growing and continue their sales.

為了讓特斯拉保持增長和繼續銷售，政府每年都要損失數十億美元。

Is that because Tesla is deeply involved with the government?

這是因為特斯拉與政府關係密切嗎？

The US government simply wanted this industry to grow.

美國政府只是希望這個行業發展壯大。

And one of the tools that the government has at its disposal is to change the incentives.

政府可以利用的手段之一就是改變激勵機制。

And since most people are driven by profits, especially when you have a corporation, then by giving tax incentives, you're encouraging people to buy electrical cars and not gasoline cars.

由於大多數人都受利益驅使，尤其是當你有一家公司時，那麼通過提供稅收優惠，你就鼓勵人們購買電動汽車，而不是汽油車。

Maybe not everybody is going to do that, but a lot of people would certainly do that.

也許不是每個人都會這麼做，但很多人肯定會這麼做。

But the problem is that there was a cap at 200,000 cars, which means that if you sell more than 200,000 cars a year, you're no longer eligible for tax credit.

但問題是，汽車銷量的上限是 20 萬輛，也就是說，如果每年的汽車銷量超過 20 萬輛，就不再有資格享受稅收抵免。

Because at this level, you're profiting from economies of scale.

因為在這個層面上，你可以從規模經濟中獲利。

And you have brought the cost per car to such a level where your business is sustainable.

而且你們已經把每輛車的成本降到了可以持續經營的水準。

The point of the tax incentives is to incentivize those corporations to invest in this industry rather than other industries.

稅收優惠的意義在於激勵這些公司投資於這一行業，而不是其他行業。

The second part of it is that the government has also decided to introduce zero-emission vehicle regulatory credits.

其次，政府還決定推出零排放車輛監管信貸。

So the focus of the government over the last 10 to 20 years was that we're having a climate change problem.

是以，在過去的 10 到 20 年裡，政府關注的焦點是我們面臨的氣候變化問題。

We have to incentivize auto brands to start producing more EVs instead of gasoline cars.

我們必須激勵汽車品牌開始生產更多的電動汽車，而不是汽油車。

You don't want to pollute the air in your city.

你不想汙染你所在城市的空氣。

So they came out with a system that they called credit requirement system.

於是，他們提出了一個系統，稱為信貸要求系統。

The point of the system is that for every car that you are going to produce that is going to be electrical, you will receive a certain amount of credits.

該系統的意義在於，每生產一輛電動汽車，就能獲得一定數量的積分。

And every single car company has to achieve or have to meet a certain threshold.

而每家汽車公司都必須達到或必須達到一定的門檻。

Let's say that it's 10,000 credits every single year.

If you do not meet that threshold, you will have to pay a huge fine to the government.

如果達不到這一標準，您將不得不向政府支付鉅額罰款。

So if you want to avoid that fine, take that money, invest it back into your factories and start producing EVs.

是以，如果你想避免罰款，就把這筆錢拿出來，投資回你的工廠，開始生產電動汽車。

On the other side, you have car companies who are oversupplying the market with EVs, who are producing far more EVs than anyone else.

另一方面，汽車公司為市場提供了過多的電動汽車，他們生產的電動汽車數量遠遠超過其他任何人。

Let's say that they are producing so many EVs that they have actually achieved far more than the threshold of 10,000 points.

比方說，他們生產瞭如此多的電動汽車，實際上已經遠遠超過了 10 000 點的門檻。

They have achieved, let's say 15,000 points.

比方說，他們已經獲得了 15000 個積分。

Now this system would allow those companies to sell those extra 5,000 points to the companies that did not meet the threshold.

現在，這個系統將允許這些公司把額外的 5000 個積分賣給那些沒有達到門檻的公司。

Tesla, for example, only manufactures EVs.

例如，特斯拉只生產電動汽車。

Tesla has acquired 30,000 points, while Ford did not acquire any points at all because they don't produce EVs at all.

特斯拉獲得了 30,000 個積分，而福特則沒有獲得任何積分，因為他們根本不生產電動汽車。

They are going to buy 10,000 points from Tesla.

他們將從特斯拉購買 10,000 個積分。

The government is basically forcing the traditional car manufacturers to either give their money to the EVs or invest back in themselves and start producing EVs.

政府基本上是在迫使傳統汽車製造商要麼把錢投給電動汽車，要麼投資回自己，開始生產電動汽車。

That's the only way that the government can change the structure of the economy to force those corporations to start investing.

只有這樣，政府才能改變經濟結構，迫使這些公司開始投資。

And since then, Tesla has earned almost 10 billion dollars by selling their credits to other car manufacturers in the US.

此後，特斯拉通過向美國其他汽車製造商出售信用額度，賺取了近 100 億美元。

Because Tesla does not sell any other cars except EVs, while most of the traditional car companies in the US, such as GM and Ford, are barely investing in EVs.

因為除了電動汽車，特斯拉不銷售任何其他汽車，而美國大多數傳統汽車公司，如通用汽車和福特汽車，幾乎不投資電動汽車。

But no one has helped Tesla as much as Joe Biden.

但沒有人像喬-拜登那樣幫助過特斯拉。

Because Joe Biden has introduced a legislation called Inflation Reduction Act.

因為喬-拜登提出了一項名為 "減少通貨膨脹法案 "的立法。

If you pay at it a very close attention, especially at section 45X, the government wanted to boost battery production in the US because it was far behind everyone else, especially China and Europe.

如果你仔細閱讀，尤其是第 45X 節，政府希望提高美國的電池產量，因為它遠遠落後於其他國家，尤其是中國和歐洲。

So they have introduced something that have benefited Tesla more than anything else.

是以，他們推出的產品讓特斯拉受益匪淺。

For every kilowatt hour that you produce, the government will pay you 45 dollars.

您每生產 1 千瓦時，政府將向您支付 45 美元。

And that means that for every car that Tesla would produce, on average, they will receive around 3,375 dollars.

這意味著，特斯拉平均每生產一輛汽車，就能獲得約 3,375 美元。

And in 2023 alone, Tesla has received something around 1.5 to 2.5 billion dollars in cash from the government of the United States because they have produced so many cars.

僅在 2023 年，特斯拉就從美國政府獲得了大約 15 億至 25 億美元的現金，因為他們生產瞭如此多的汽車。

Imagine this is literally one of the main sources of revenue.

試想一下，這簡直就是收入的主要來源之一。

The government sends you a literal check of 2.5 billion dollars in 2023.

政府會在 2023 年寄給你一張 25 億美元的支票。

And this program is supposed to extend up until 2032.

而這個計劃應該會一直延續到 2032 年。

So for the next 7 to 8 years, Tesla is supposed to receive billions of dollars from the government that would go from the taxpayers money directly into the pockets of Tesla in order for them to continue building those gigafactories across the United States.

是以，在接下來的 7 到 8 年裡，特斯拉將從政府那裡獲得數十億美元，這些錢將從納稅人的錢直接進入特斯拉的口袋，以便他們繼續在美國各地建造這些千兆工廠。

It was a great incentive because if you know that the government will pay you so much money, you will start building batteries in the US.

這是一個巨大的激勵，因為如果你知道政府會給你這麼多錢，你就會開始在美國製造電池。

And nobody builds as effectively batteries in the US as much as Tesla does that.

在美國，沒人能像特斯拉那樣有效地製造電池。

So if you look at the sources of revenue of Tesla, it isn't just about directly selling EVs, but it's about directly being supported by the government of the United States through different programs, by providing subsidies, by paying you billions of dollars, by creating rules that will encourage other car companies, especially traditional car companies to pay you billions of dollars.

是以，如果你看看特斯拉的收入來源，它不僅僅是直接銷售電動汽車，而是直接得到美國政府通過不同項目的支持，通過提供補貼，通過向你支付數十億美元，通過制定規則鼓勵其他汽車公司，尤其是傳統汽車公司向你支付數十億美元。

Because if it wasn't for the government, Tesla wouldn't have earned 10 billion dollars in pure profit from other car companies simply because of the law that they have created.

因為如果沒有政府，特斯拉就不會從其他汽車公司那裡獲得 100 億美元的純利潤，而這僅僅是因為他們創造了法律。

But the main question is that, why would the government help Tesla so much?

但主要問題是，政府為什麼要如此幫助特斯拉？

And this graph perfectly illustrates that.

You see, around 20 years ago, probably 25 years ago, the Chinese government decided that we are going to focus on technologies of the future.

大約在 20 年前，大概是 25 年前，中國政府決定，我們要把重點放在未來技術上。

So if we focus on gasoline cars today, we can't compete.

是以，如果我們今天只關注汽油車，我們就無法與之競爭。

We have Ford, we have GM, we have BMWs that are coming from Germany, we have Volkswagens or Porsche, we can't compete with them.

我們有福特，我們有通用，我們有來自德國的寶馬，我們有大眾或保時捷，我們無法與它們競爭。

So if we want to build the greatest cars in the world, we have to focus on the future.

是以，如果我們想打造世界上最棒的汽車，就必須著眼於未來。

So they started massively investing on becoming the best and the number one on producing batteries, which is why if you look at the numbers today, or at least in 2022, 77% of all the batteries are being manufactured by China.

是以，他們開始大規模投資，力爭成為電池生產領域的佼佼者和第一名，這就是為什麼今天，或者至少在 2022 年，77% 的電池由中國製造的原因。

And the United States only manufactures around 6% of the global production.

而美國的產量僅佔全球產量的 6%左右。

China has a full monopoly on this industry.

And that's, by the way, part of the reason why Joe Biden introduced the Inflation Reduction Act that helped Tesla so much.

順便說一句，這也是喬-拜登提出《降低通貨膨脹法案》的部分原因，該法案對特斯拉幫助很大。

It wasn't because Joe Biden and Elon were the best friends out there.

這並不是因為喬-拜登和伊隆是最好的朋友。

They probably hated each other, but it was in the national interest of the United States to improve this industry, to force US companies to start investing in this field.

他們可能互相憎恨，但改善這一行業、迫使美國公司開始在這一領域投資符合美國的國家利益。

But for some reason, Tesla was the only company or Elon was the only person who took the best advantage out of it because they simply started massively investing in batteries.

但出於某種原因，只有特斯拉一家公司或只有埃隆一個人利用了這一優勢，因為他們乾脆開始大規模投資電池。

And you can say that because Elon started investing in Tesla way before this legislation was passed back in 2006 and 2007 when Elon just joined Tesla.

之所以這麼說，是因為早在 2006 年和 2007 年這項立法通過之前，埃隆就開始投資特斯拉了，當時埃隆剛剛加入特斯拉。

And even if you look at the EV production around the world, you will instantly see that China dominates the entire industry.

即使你看看全球電動汽車的生產情況，你也會立刻發現中國在整個行業中佔據主導地位。

The largest EV manufacturer in the world is BYD, which is a Chinese company.

全球最大的電動汽車製造商是中國的比亞迪公司。

Last year, they have produced around 4 million cars.

去年，他們生產了約 400 萬輛汽車。