Name: 敘利亞領導人稱軍隊將在停火協議破裂後部署到蘇韋達 | DW News (Syrian leader says army deploying to Sweida following ceasefire collapse | DW News)
Uploaded: 2025-07-19T18:20:12.000Z
Duration: 18 min 31 s

Now to the sectarian conflict in southern Syria and reports that the Syrian army could redeploy to Suwayda after the collapse of a ceasefire deal there.

現在我們來談談敘利亞南部的教派衝突，有報道稱，在敘利亞南部的停火協議破裂後，敘利亞軍隊可能會重新部署到蘇韋達。

Friday saw a fresh outbreak of violence between Sunni Bedouin militia and Druze fighters.

週五，遜尼派貝都因民兵和德魯茲戰士之間爆發了新的暴力衝突。

Under a U.S.-brokered deal, Syrian government forces withdrew from the area on Thursday after coming under heavy bombardment from Israel, which supports the Druze religious minority.

根據美國斡旋達成的協議，敘利亞政府軍在遭到支持德魯茲宗教少數群體的以色列猛烈轟炸後，於週四撤出了該地區。

The violence of recent days has left almost 600 people dead.

最近幾天的暴力事件已造成近 600 人死亡。

The UN's human rights agency, the OHCHR, is calling for the killing to stop and for those responsible to be held to account.

聯合國人權機構人權高專辦（OHCHR）呼籲停止殺戮，並追究責任人的責任。

Steps need to be taken to ensure protection of people in Suwayda and across Syria.

必須採取措施，確保蘇韋達和敘利亞各地的人民得到保護。

The bloodshed and the violence must stop.

Credible reports that our office has received indicate widespread violations and abuses, including summary executions and arbitrary killings, kidnappings, destruction of private property and looting of homes in the southern city of Suwayda.

本辦事處收到的可靠報告表明，在南部城市蘇韋達，普遍存在侵權和虐待行為，包括即決處決和任意殺戮、綁架、破壞私人財產和搶劫住宅。

Syria's interim authorities must ensure independent, prompt and transparent investigations into all violations.

敘利亞臨時當局必須確保對所有侵權行為進行獨立、迅速和透明的調查。

All those responsible must be held to account.

Caroline Rose is Director of Crime Conflict Nexus and Military Withdrawals at the New

卡羅琳-羅斯（Caroline Rose）是美國新南威爾士州立大學犯罪、衝突關係和軍事撤軍問題主任。

Lines Institute, which has a particular focus on the Middle East.

If southern Syria seems to be locked in a longstanding cycle of attacks and reprisals which seem to flare up every so often, is it inevitable that this cycle will continue?

如果說敘利亞南部似乎陷入了襲擊和報復的長期循環之中，而且似乎每隔一段時間就會爆發一次，那麼這種循環是否不可避免地會繼續下去？

I think that even when the regime controlled Syria, the south was always a contested area where we would see constant kidnappings, contestation, violent clashes and killings between different community members, including Bedouin tribes, different prominent families,

我認為，即使在敘利亞政權控制敘利亞的時候，南部也一直是一個有爭議的地區，在那裡，我們會看到不斷髮生綁架、爭議、暴力衝突以及不同社區成員之間的殺戮，包括貝都因部落、不同的顯赫家族、

Druze community members, and then, of course, the regime in Hezbollah.

德魯茲社區成員，當然還有真主黨政權。

當然，現在情況已經發生了變化。

We now have the regime kicked out of Syria.

現在，敘利亞政權已被趕出敘利亞。

And it's very clear that Druze communities in Sueda have opposed and have expressed hesitation regarding HGS and their ideological origins and their nature of rule over a new Syria.

很明顯，綏達的德魯茲社區反對並對敘利亞政府及其意識形態起源和對新敘利亞的統治性質表示猶豫。

So I do think that this has been inevitable.

是以，我認為這是不可避免的。

That being said, I think that this is a conflict that could be certainly better managed by the new administration.

儘管如此，我認為新政府一定可以更好地處理這一衝突。

I think that there were many ways to prevent the scale and scope of the outbreak that we saw occur in Sueda between different communities, as well as, of course, the response that we saw towards many Druze community leaders from forces that were affiliated with HGS and the new administration in Syria.

我認為，有很多方法可以防止我們在蘇埃達看到的不同社區之間爆發的規模和範圍，當然，我們也看到了與HGS和敘利亞新政府有關聯的勢力對許多德魯茲社區領導人的反應。

The best we can hope for is that this interim government, or whoever succeeds it, contains this and tries to keep the number of casualties down.

我們所能寄予的最大希望是，臨時政府或繼任者能夠控制事態發展，儘量減少傷亡人數。

I think that this is an area that absolutely needs a better preventative strategy.

我認為，這個領域絕對需要更好的預防戰略。

With any country that would be coming out of nearly two decades of civil war, you are bound to have tensions between different communities, revenge killings, acts of vengeance, clashes, violence.

任何一個國家在經歷了近 20 年的內戰之後，都必然會出現不同族群之間的緊張關係、報復性殺戮、復仇行為、衝突和暴力。

And so this, I think, was well-anticipated amongst every Syria analyst that has been following the war and its aftermath after the regime has fallen.

是以，我認為，在敘利亞政權垮臺後，所有關注這場戰爭及其後果的敘利亞分析人士都對此早有預料。

But that being said, I think that there's another element that additionally needs to be accounted for, which is the role that Israel wants to play in the South.

儘管如此，我認為還需要考慮另一個因素，那就是以色列希望在南方扮演的角色。

When the regime was in power in the South, there was a de-confliction mechanism.

當該政權在南方掌權時，有一個消除衝突的機制。

But it was a mechanism that was primarily maintained by Russia and in collaboration with Druze communities.

但這一機制主要是由俄羅斯與德魯茲社區合作維持的。

Israel sees southern Syria as a buffer zone of sorts.

以色列將敘利亞南部視為某種緩衝區。

It really wants to ensure that Israel can project some degree of influence into the

它確實希望確保以色列能在一定程度上對敘利亞施加影響。

And right now, it has lost that with the absence of the regime.

而現在，由於政權的缺失，它已經失去了這一點。

So that is why we're seeing Israel co-opt many of these Druze community members to try and contest and push for further influence in Syria's southern region.

是以，我們看到以色列收編了許多德魯茲社區成員，試圖在敘利亞南部地區爭奪和推動進一步的影響力。

And that, I think, calls even more so for preventative measures, a long-term strategy from the new interim government that seeks to build bridges rather than exacerbate this divide between local communities and the new administration.

我認為，這就更需要新的臨時政府採取預防性措施和長期戰略，尋求在當地社區和新政府之間架起橋樑，而不是加劇這種分歧。

Let's pick out one of the strands of that in terms of the relationship with Israel.

讓我們從與以色列的關係中挑出其中一條線索。

Because it sounds like you're saying that whoever rules Syria, whether it be this interim government or, again, whoever comes after it, whoever rules Syria has to accept Israel's demand for a seat at the table in the south of the country.

因為這聽起來像是你在說，無論誰統治敘利亞，無論是這個臨時政府還是之後的政府，無論誰統治敘利亞，都必須接受以色列的要求，在敘利亞南部的談判桌上佔有一席之地。

I think that it'll be important for any new administration, any ruler of Syria, not to accept Israeli territorial acquisition of the south.

我認為，任何新政府、任何敘利亞統治者都不能接受以色列獲取南部領土。

And I think that that's something that Israel has pushed for in the past.

我認為這是以色列過去一直在推動的事情。

But I do think that they have to come to terms that Israel wants a degree of monitoring.

但我確實認為，他們必須接受以色列想要一定程度的監督的事實。

It wants a degree of transparency and clarity into what is happening in the south of Syria.

它希望敘利亞南部發生的事情有一定程度的透明度和清晰度。

And that's where a potential deconfliction agreement can come into place.

而這正是可能達成消除衝突協議的地方。

We saw that before, and it was brokered by Russia.

我們以前看到過這種情況，而且是在俄羅斯的斡旋下發生的。

And they managed a lot of these tensions between different communities in the regime.

他們處理了政權中不同社區之間的許多緊張關係。

They also prevented the regime from being able to consolidate large amounts of control in both Daraa and Suwayda provinces.

他們還阻止了敘利亞政權鞏固對德拉省和蘇韋達省的大量控制。

And I think that it's going to look different for the new administration.

我認為，新一屆政府會有不同的看法。

There has to be control by the Syrian army in the south.

敘利亞軍隊必須控制南部地區。

They've not been able to do this because they know there are local tensions and the potential for violence.

他們一直未能這樣做，因為他們知道當地局勢緊張，有可能發生暴力事件。

But I think it's going to be very important to set up a mechanism to communicate with

但我認為，建立一個機制來與以下方面溝通將是非常重要的

Israel and to try and prevent Israeli direct attacks, both into southern Syria as well as into the capital in Damascus and elsewhere in the country.

以色列，並試圖阻止以色列直接攻擊敘利亞南部、首都大馬士革和該國其他地區。

So how dangerous is this current situation then for Syria's interim government?

那麼，目前的局勢對敘利亞臨時政府來說有多危險呢？

Are we looking at the transition to democracy potentially unravelling as a result of all this?

我們是否看到向民主的過渡有可能是以而解體？

And I think that we've seen violent outbreaks before in Syria.

我認為，我們以前在敘利亞看到過暴力事件的爆發。

But this is one of the few where the scale and the scope, just the amount of clashes, the amount of dead community members and dead Syrian army members, it indicates of what is to potentially come.

但從衝突的規模和範圍、社區成員的死亡人數以及敘利亞軍隊成員的死亡人數來看，這是為數不多的表明可能會發生什麼的事件。

And that is widespread intercommunal clashes, tensions, kidnappings, revenge killings that transcends beyond southern Syria.

這就是廣泛存在的部族間衝突、緊張局勢、綁架和報復性殺戮，其範圍超出了敘利亞南部。

This could revive tensions between Alawite communities and Sunni communities along the

這可能會再次引發阿拉維派社區與遜尼派社區之間的緊張關係。

Mediterranean coast in hotspots like Latakia and Tartus.

拉塔基亞和塔爾圖斯等熱點地區的地中海沿岸。

It could also revive tensions between the new administration and Kurdish communities.

這也可能再次引發新政府與庫爾德社區之間的緊張關係。

What we've seen in the south, the treatment on both sides between Druze community members and those that have aligned themselves with the new administration, this has sparked new fears amongst minority communities about how the interim government is handling intercommunal tensions.

我們在南部看到的情況是，德魯茲社區成員和那些與新政府結盟的人雙方都受到了對待，這引發了少數民族社區對臨時政府如何處理社區間緊張關係的新擔憂。

And it's undermined a lot of the hope and the trust in these new governmental institutions.

這破壞了人們對這些新政府機構的希望和信任。

是以，我認為這是非常非常重要的。

This could become a much more widespread bloody conflict.

這可能會成為一場更為廣泛的流血衝突。

That's a sobering analysis and we thank you for it.

你的分析令人警醒，我們對此表示感謝。

Caroline Rose, policy analyst from the Newland Institute.

卡羅琳-羅斯，紐蘭研究所政策分析師。

讓我們與約斯特-希爾特曼一起探討這個問題。

He's director of the International Crisis Group's Middle East and North Africa program.

他是國際危機組織中東和北非項目主任。

So let's start with those unconfirmed reports that Syrian government forces are to return to Suwayda province to try and quell this latest violence.

我們先來看看那些未經證實的報道：敘利亞政府軍將重返蘇韋達省，試圖平息最新的暴力事件。

Well, we have to be clear as to what government forces we're talking about, because there is the Syrian army and there is the general security, which is the internal security force.

我們必須搞清楚我們所說的政府軍是什麼部隊，因為這裡有敘利亞軍隊，還有安全總局，也就是國內治安部隊。

And I think because the army was present in Suwayda for a while, but Israel has clearly warned the Syrian leadership that it doesn't want the army deployed in the south.

我認為，軍隊曾在蘇韋達駐紮過一段時間，但以色列已明確警告敘利亞領導人，它不希望軍隊部署在南部。

So I think what we're talking about is the internal security force, the general security, which was deployed also in Suwayda, which then withdrew and which should be able to go back if there is a deal in place between the Druze spiritual leadership and political leadership on the one hand and the Syrian government on the other.

是以，我認為我們所說的是內部安全部隊，也就是在蘇韋達部署的一般安全部隊，他們後來撤走了，如果德魯茲精神領袖和政治領袖與敘利亞政府達成協議，他們應該能夠回去。

And why is this force likely to be more successful than the Syrian army?

為什麼這支部隊可能比敘利亞軍隊更成功？

It's not whether they can be more successful.

問題不在於他們能否更加成功。

The reality is that Israel will not allow the Syrian army to deploy in that area in Suwayda.

現實情況是，以色列不會允許敘利亞軍隊在蘇韋達地區部署。

But in any case, whenever there is a domestic dispute or conflict in any country, it should be the internal security force that steps in, not the army, which is there to protect the borders of the country.

但無論如何，任何國家只要發生國內爭端或衝突，就應該由國內安全部隊介入，而不是由軍隊介入，因為軍隊的職責是保護國家邊界。

So in any case, it should be general security that ought to take on this task and has in fact tried to take on this task but has not been particularly successful until this moment.

是以，無論如何，應該由總體安全部來承擔這項任務，事實上，它一直在努力承擔這項任務，但直到現在才取得了特別大的成功。

What is it about the combatants in this or perhaps about the country itself that means that these ceasefires, and there have been a number, why haven't they held?

是什麼原因導致了這些停火協議（已經有許多次了）無法維持？

So the real problem in Syria until now is that it's a fresh regime, a new regime that overthrew the previous one.

是以，直到現在，敘利亞的真正問題是，這是一個新政權，一個推翻了前政權的新政權。

I call it regime, but I mean the political system that is now in charge under President

我說它是政權，其實指的是現在由總統上司的政治體制。

And it is still building up the security forces, which is basically an assembly of armed groups that operated against the Syrian regime before toppling it in December of last year.

安全部隊基本上是去年 12 月推翻敘利亞政權之前與之對抗的武裝組織的集合體。

And so to unify these forces, to professionalize them, is going to take time.

是以，統一這些力量，使其專業化，需要時間。

And so far it has not achieved that point.

到目前為止，它還沒有達到這一點。

And of course Syria is a mosaic, an ethnic and religious mosaic of groups that all are clamoring for protection and are all afraid of the central government, that it will harm them or that other groups will harm them.

當然，敘利亞是一個由種族和宗教組成的馬賽克國家，所有這些團體都要求得到保護，都害怕中央政府，害怕中央政府傷害他們或其他團體傷害他們。

And so if the central government cannot bring the security that they need, then these local conflicts are bound to get out of hand, as they did the last few days in Sweden.

是以，如果中央政府不能提供他們所需的安全保障，那麼這些地方衝突勢必會一發不可收拾，就像前幾天在瑞典發生的那樣。