Name: 伊朗經濟為何舉步維艱？| 英國廣播公司新聞 (Why is Iran’s economy struggling? | BBC News)
Uploaded: 2025-07-17T08:06:25.000Z
Duration: 18 min 10 s

Hello, and welcome to Talking Business, as we join you all around the world.

大家好，歡迎收看 "談生意 "節目，我們將與您相聚在世界各地。

轉承詞

This week, it's the turn of Iran's economy to be under our microscope, because its status as the world's seventh biggest oil producer should be a source of great wealth.

本週，輪到伊朗經濟受到我們的關注，因為它作為世界第七大石油生產國，應該是巨大財富的來源。

情態副詞

And in fact, why has it been doing so for years?

事實上，為什麼多年來一直如此？

As we've recently been reminded, Iran's nuclear programme has been at the centre of that struggle.

正如最近提醒我們的那樣，伊朗的核計劃一直是這場鬥爭的核心。

It's triggered financial sanctions, as well as the recent war with Israel and fighting with the United States.

這引發了金融制裁，以及最近與以色列的戰爭和與美國的戰鬥。

It's brought devastating economic sanctions that could yet pose the biggest threat to the survival of the regime that has led the Islamic Republic since 1979.

它帶來了毀滅性的經濟制裁，可能會對自 1979 年以來一直上司伊斯蘭共和國的政權的生存構成最大威脅。

The BBC isn't often allowed to report from inside Iran, so it isn't easy to get an accurate reflection of how regular citizens feel about the economic situation.

BBC 並不經常獲准從伊朗內部進行報道，是以要準確反映普通民眾對經濟形勢的看法並不容易。

But we did get these thoughts from people in Tehran back in March.

但我們確實從德黑蘭的人那裡得到了這些想法，那是在 3 月份。

They were filmed by the West Asia News Agency and provided by our trusted partner, Reuters.

這些照片由西亞通訊社拍攝，並由我們值得信賴的合作伙伴路透社提供。

Due to the currency and dollar fluctuations, people's economic conditions have become difficult for them, and they cannot get everything they want from the market.

由於貨幣和美元的波動，人們的經濟條件變得十分困難，他們無法從市場上獲得想要的一切。

Given the economic conditions we're currently facing, there is some pressure on all segments of society.

鑑於我們目前所面臨的經濟狀況，社會各階層都面臨著一定的壓力。

We all feel this pressure to a greater or lesser extent.

我們或多或少都會感受到這種壓力。

Given the sanctions, downsizings, and economic conditions, not only the market, but also everything else is in a bad state.

鑑於制裁、裁員和經濟狀況，不僅是市場，其他一切都很糟糕。

In these financial conditions, people can't afford to buy things.

在這種經濟條件下，人們買不起東西。

Look, the economic situation, there are always problems, but I personally am not very ungrateful or unhappy because I believe that sustenance and our ability to survive is in God's hands.

你看，經濟形勢總是會出現問題，但我個人並不是很忘恩負義或不開心，因為我相信我們的生計和生存能力都掌握在上帝的手中。

So why are people feeling downbeat about their livelihoods?

那麼，為什麼人們會對自己的生活感到沮喪呢？

Iran's economy is hard to measure, but this graph shows how sanctions in 2011 and 2018 had a big impact on growth, which has only just recovered despite the population growing to 92 million people.

伊朗的經濟很難衡量，但這張圖顯示了 2011 年和 2018 年的制裁對經濟增長的巨大影響，儘管伊朗人口已增至 9 200 萬，但經濟增長才剛剛恢復。

Over time, it has become harder for Iranians to make ends meet.

隨著時間的推移，伊朗人越來越難以維持生計。

Household spending in big cities is down 30% since its 2008 peak, and in rural areas, it is down more than 50%.

大城市的家庭支出比 2008 年的峰值下降了 30%，而農村地區的家庭支出則下降了 50%以上。

One reason people have less money to spend is that less people are working.

人們花錢少的一個原因是工作的人越來越少。

That's partly because less women are working due to government restrictions.

部分原因是由於政府的限制，工作的女性越來越少。

The latest official numbers show prices for goods and services rising at a yearly rate of a whopping 34.5%, fuelled by mismanagement of the public finances and international isolation.

最新的官方數據顯示，由於公共財政管理不善和國際孤立，商品和服務價格的年增長率高達 34.5%。

And in a speech in March, Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, acknowledged as much.

伊朗最高領袖阿里-哈梅內伊在今年 3 月的一次演講中也承認了這一點。

Yes, sanctions are not entirely without effect, but it isn't the case that if our economic situation is bad, it's only due to sanctions.

是的，制裁並非完全沒有影響，但並不是說我們的經濟狀況不好，就只能歸咎於制裁。

No, our own negligence sometimes has an effect.

不，我們自己的疏忽有時會產生影響。

And not just sometimes, most of our problems stem from our own negligence.

不只是有時，我們的大多數問題都源於我們自己的疏忽。

And a large part of that is how the huge sums Iran makes from selling oil are used.

其中很大一部分是伊朗如何使用從石油銷售中賺取的鉅額利潤。

Billions are being spent on weapons for itself and regional allies, as well as on Iran's nuclear programme and the government's security forces.

伊朗花費數十億美元為自己和地區盟友購買武器，並將其用於核計劃和政府安全部隊。

That money has flowed in despite sanctions, as Iran pumped more oil and other energy last year than it had done since before the Islamic Revolution in 1979.

儘管受到制裁，這些錢還是源源不斷地流入伊朗，因為伊朗去年的石油和其他能源產量超過了 1979 年伊斯蘭革命前的水準。

And although export income is nowhere near the pre-sanctions peak, it has risen in recent years and now brings in around $78 billion a year.

儘管出口收入遠未達到制裁前的峰值，但近年來已經有所增長，目前每年出口收入約為 780 億美元。

Well, the vast majority is going to China, despite Western sanctions that President Trump had considered lifting.

儘管特朗普總統曾考慮解除西方的制裁，但絕大部分還是流向了中國。

I'm for stopping Iran, very simply, from having a nuclear weapon.

我支持阻止伊朗擁有核武器，非常簡單。

I want Iran to be great and prosperous and terrific.

我希望伊朗變得偉大、繁榮和了不起。

We did try asking for an interview with Iran's recently appointed finance minister and the governor of the central bank, but we didn't get any response.

我們曾試圖採訪伊朗最近任命的財政部長和中央銀行行長，但沒有得到任何迴應。

And as it's so difficult for anyone inside Iran to speak to the BBC, instead we turned to an Iranian economist who monitors the country closely.

由於伊朗境內的任何人都很難接受 BBC 的採訪，我們轉而採訪了一位密切關注伊朗局勢的伊朗經濟學家。

He's at the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies.

他在維也納國際經濟研究所工作。

馬赫迪-戈德茲，歡迎來到節目。

I want to begin by asking you how Iranians are coping day to day with soaring inflation that means goods and services there are costing roughly 40% more each year.

通貨膨脹飆升意味著當地商品和服務的價格每年大約上漲 40%，我想先問問您，伊朗人是如何應對這種情況的。

So, since six years ago when President Donald Trump in his first term in office withdrew the US from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action and imposed crippling secondary sanctions on the Iranian economy, since then inflation is hovering around 40%.

是以，自從六年前唐納德-特朗普總統在他的第一個任期內將美國從《聯合全面行動計劃》中撤出，並對伊朗經濟實施嚴厲的二級制裁以來，伊朗的通貨膨脹率一直徘徊在 40% 左右。

And it was a very high inflation because prior to that, it was less than 20%.

通貨膨脹率非常高，因為在此之前，通貨膨脹率還不到 20%。

And since six years ago, unfortunately, because of the austerity measures that were introduced by President Raisi, the real income of employees, public employees, minimum wages in Iran, have decreased by about 50%.

不幸的是，自六年前以來，由於拉伊西總統推行的緊縮措施，伊朗僱員、公職人員的實際收入（最低工資）下降了約 50%。

And this is what Iranians are suffering from.

這就是伊朗人正在遭受的痛苦。

And this means a huge amount of pressure on their household income, on their costs, so they cannot spend as much as before.

這意味著他們的家庭收入和支出壓力巨大，是以他們不能像以前那樣大手大腳。

But when we talk about Iranians coping from day to day, how bad is it getting for people in their daily lives?

但是，當我們談論伊朗人的日常生活時，他們的情況到底有多糟？

There is not enough food on the shelves of shops and because of supply shortages that is coming actually because truckers strike about a month ago, about two months ago that it started.

商店的貨架上沒有足夠的食物，實際上是因為卡車司機在一個月前，也就是兩個月前開始罷工，導致供應短缺。

So there is a huge supply bottlenecks and prices are increasing and increasing.

是以，出現了巨大的供應瓶頸，價格也在不斷上漲。

People may wonder why isn't the government though, managing to keep prices, wages and jobs under control with an economy growing at 3% a year?

人們可能會問，在經濟每年增長 3% 的情況下，政府為什麼不能控制物價、工資和就業？

Yes, the economy is growing, it's still growing.

是的，經濟在增長，還在增長。

And so much of this growth is due to increased oil exports that was being facilitated at the time of the Biden administration who turned blind eye on Iran's exports of oil to China, to Malaysia, to India.

拜登政府對伊朗向中國、馬來西亞和印度出口石油視而不見，而石油出口的增加在很大程度上促進了這一增長。

So there was some growth, but the growth was not in other sectors of economy.

是以，出現了一些增長，但增長並不在其他經濟部門。

About 70, 80% of Iran's gross domestic product is going to Iran's public budget.

伊朗國內生產總值的約 70% 至 80% 用於伊朗的公共預算。

Iran is dependent on lots of intermediate and primary commodities, foodstuffs, pharmaceuticals that are being imported from outside.

伊朗依賴從外部進口的大量中間產品和初級產品、食品和藥品。

And if Iranian government continues to devalue its own currency, it means that prices of these imported goods would again continue to rise.

如果伊朗政府繼續讓本國貨幣貶值，就意味著這些進口商品的價格將再次繼續上漲。

Is it not only the lack of both an independent central bank, but also a lack of investment in badly needed infrastructure like electricity and water, which has shortages of both?

不僅是缺乏獨立的中央銀行，還缺乏對電力和水等急需的基礎設施的投資，這兩樣東西都短缺嗎？

Of course, lack of investment in the past, let's say decade or even since 2011, since 2012, when the sanctions intensify, the business environment in Iran has never been good.

當然，過去十年，甚至 2011 年以來，自 2012 年制裁加劇以來，由於缺乏投資，伊朗的商業環境一直不好。

And due to that, investment has been declining.

So infrastructure is becoming rusty and the Iranian government does not manage to supply enough utility, energy, electricity, even water in certain periods.

是以，基礎設施變得鏽跡斑斑，伊朗政府在某些時期無法提供足夠的公用設施、能源、電力，甚至是水。

So given all of this lack of private investment, lack of public investment, the situation and the living standards are not being improved.

是以，在缺乏私人投資和公共投資的情況下，情況和生活水準並沒有得到改善。

It's surprising because on the face of it, a country that is the world's seventh biggest oil producer should be wealthy and thriving.

這令人驚訝，因為從表面上看，一個世界第七大石油生產國應該是富裕和繁榮的。

So where is the estimated $78 billion from oil sold abroad last year going?

那麼，去年銷往國外的約 780 億美元石油流向了哪裡？

Because of sanctions, because of mismanagement of the government, because we're dealing here with an autocracy that tries to conceal information that is not transparent.

因為制裁，因為政府管理不善，因為我們面對的是一個試圖掩蓋不透明資訊的專制國家。

We don't know exactly how much of it is going through different commodities and products.

我們不知道到底有多少是通過不同的商品和產品流出的。

So some parts of it, some parts of Iranian export is being transferred to imports of commodities like foodstuffs, like livestock feed, like medicine, pharmaceuticals.

是以，伊朗出口商品的某些部分正轉為進口商品，如食品、牲畜飼料、藥品等。

These commodities are not targeted by sanctions.

So that's how Iranian government can still import these goods.

是以，伊朗政府仍然可以進口這些商品。

Are there any estimates as to how much of that money would be spent on weapons or Iran's nuclear program?

是否估算過這筆錢有多少會用於武器或伊朗核計劃？

So there's some estimates that the cost of building the nuclear facilities in Iran in the past decades was reaching more than a trillion dollar, but there's no tacit information.

據估計，伊朗在過去幾十年中建造核設施的費用超過了一萬億美元，但目前還沒有確切的消息。

There's no transparent information regarding these issues.

在這些問題上沒有透明的資訊。

But what we know that there has been always a covert support of the Iranian regime for proxies, for its nuclear program, for its missile activity.

但我們知道，伊朗政權一直在暗中支持代理人，支持其核計劃和飛彈活動。

We believe that a huge amount of Iranian export-driven use are going to these costs.

我們認為，伊朗出口驅動的大量資金都用於支付這些費用。

Iran's supreme leader has suggested that many of the economic problems are homegrown rather than caused by sanctions.

伊朗最高領袖表示，許多經濟問題是伊朗自己造成的，而不是制裁造成的。

He's urged Iranians to buy more homemade goods to help the economy recover.

他敦促伊朗人購買更多的自制商品，以幫助經濟復甦。

But are domestic solutions the answer or are sanctions still the greatest threat that they need to overcome?

但是，國內解決方案是答案，還是制裁仍然是他們需要克服的最大威脅？

A regime that is ruled by ideology, by Islamists in its capital, it does not pursue expertise to provide enough knowledge, technology for its own domestic production.

一個被意識形態統治的政權，一個被其首都的伊斯蘭主義者統治的政權，它不會追求專業知識，為自己的國內生產提供足夠的知識和技術。

There is no internal source of growth and development in Iran.

伊朗沒有增長和發展的內部源泉。

On the other hand, technology that is developed in different parts of the world is heavily needed in Iran.

另一方面，伊朗非常需要世界各地開發的技術。

And because of sanctions, there is no access to such technology.

而由於制裁，他們無法獲得此類技術。

So both domestic and foreign relationship of Iranian government have led to the situation in which Iran cannot develop.

是以，伊朗政府的內外關係導致伊朗無法發展。

Finally, Mahdi, is the struggling economy getting so bad, it's becoming the biggest threat to the survival of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's regime?

最後，馬赫迪，陷入困境的經濟是否已經變得如此糟糕，成為阿亞圖拉-阿里-哈梅內伊政權生存的最大威脅？

So economic conditions are the ones that could push the society to the streets again and they could ask for change.

是以，經濟條件可能會把社會再次推向街頭，他們可能會要求變革。

But I think the Iranian society needs a coalition of leaders to guide them and mobilize them.

但我認為，伊朗社會需要一個領袖聯盟來引導他們、動員他們。

And those leaders are within and outside Iran.

Mahdi Ghodsi, it's been great to have you on the program.

馬赫迪-高西，很高興你能來參加節目。

So that's the picture of what's happening inside Iran.

But there's pressure coming from the outside too, thanks to financial sanctions.

但由於金融制裁，來自外部的壓力也很大。

So to understand more, I've been speaking to a man who has held various US government positions under Presidents Obama and Biden.

是以，為了進一步瞭解情況，我採訪了一位曾在奧巴馬總統和拜登總統手下擔任過各種美國政府職務的人。

He played a large role in drawing up sanctions on Iran and is now at Columbia University in New York.

他在制定對伊朗制裁的過程中發揮了重要作用，現就職於紐約哥倫比亞大學。

字幕列表影片播放

伊朗經濟為何舉步維艱？| 英國廣播公司新聞 (Why is Iran’s economy struggling? | BBC News)

struggle

significant

situation

infrastructure