Name: 中情局在壓力下快速決策的方法 | 安德魯-布斯塔曼特 (The CIA method for making quick decisions under stress | Andrew Bustamante)
Uploaded: 2025-06-30T16:00:31.000Z
Duration: 12 min 30 s

情態副詞

CIA teaches us that there's only three resources that matter in life.

中央情報局告訴我們，生命中只有三種資源最重要。

So you are literally always working against a clock.

是以，你實際上總是在與時間賽跑。

And you really start to feel the pressure of time.

你開始真正感受到時間的壓力。

Instead, what you need to understand is the very same time that's making you anxious is actually your most valuable asset.

相反，你需要明白的是，讓你焦慮的時間其實是你最寶貴的財富。

Current research shows that the average person has to make more than 1,600 decisions a day.

目前的研究表明，平均每人每天要做出 1600 多個決定。

They have to decide when to pick up the kids, what to feed them for dinner, what to say to their spouse, when to call their mom.

他們必須決定什麼時候去接孩子，晚飯吃什麼，跟配偶說什麼，什麼時候給媽媽打電話。

They're keeping track of when the next time is to put out the trash, and they're keeping track of when the next time is to mow the lawn.

他們會記錄下一次倒垃圾的時間，記錄下一次修剪草坪的時間。

There are an overwhelming amount of tasks that you have to carry out every single day.

每天都有大量的任務需要您去完成。

And the same thing happens to us when we are operating in the foreign field.

當我們在國外開展業務時，同樣的情況也會發生在我們身上。

It's something that we call task saturation.

When there's more tasks that need to be done, then you feel comfortable carrying out with any sort of effective capacity.

當有更多的任務需要完成時，你就會覺得以任何一種有效的能力開展工作都很舒服。

And task saturation is a very dangerous thing because it can result in decreased cognitive ability, increased stress, increased anxiety, and an overall sense of unproductive success.

而任務飽和是一件非常危險的事情，因為它會導致認知能力下降、壓力增大、焦慮增加，以及整體上的無功而返感。

You can learn to identify and manage your own threshold for tasks so that you never enter a position of task saturation.

你可以學會確定和管理自己的任務閾值，這樣你就永遠不會進入任務飽和狀態。

We have a very simple rule of thumb at CIA that says that however many tasks you think you can confidently carry out simultaneously, subtract two.

在中央情報局，我們有一個非常簡單的經驗法則，那就是無論你認為自己有信心同時完成多少項任務，都要減去兩項。

So if you think you can do seven tasks simultaneously, just do five.

是以，如果你認為自己可以同時完成七項任務，那就只做五項。

If you think you can only do three tasks simultaneously, cut down by two so you just do one.

如果你認為自己只能同時完成三項任務，那就減少兩項，只做一項。

What happens when you take this simple rule of thumb and you reduce the number of tasks that you're trying to accomplish by two, you are essentially increasing your resources for fewer tasks, which increases your productivity with each of those tasks.

當你利用這個簡單的經驗法則，將你要完成的任務數量減少兩個時，你基本上是在為更少的任務增加資源，從而提高了每項任務的生產率。

And as you become more productive, you gain momentum with the other tasks.

當你的工作效率越來越高時，你就會在其他任務中獲得動力。

And above all, you have this very positive mindset and this very positive attitude that allows you to continue being productive.

最重要的是，你有這種非常積極的心態和非常積極的態度，這讓你能夠繼續提高工作效率。

In contrast, when you allow yourself to reach a place of task saturation, the opposite effect happens.

相反，當你讓自己達到任務飽和狀態時，就會產生相反的效果。

You start to feel like you're not being productive.

You start to feel like you're overwhelmed and you develop a negative mindset that actually starts to create more problems that keep you from being productive.

你開始覺得自己不堪重負，產生消極的心態，實際上開始製造更多的問題，讓你無法提高工作效率。

Once you are task saturated, you have to start working to resolve or reverse your level of task saturation.

一旦任務飽和，就必須開始努力解決或扭轉任務飽和度。

The first step is one where you have to accept that you are actively in a position of task saturation, which means you will not accomplish all of the tasks that you're trying to carry out.

第一步，你必須承認自己正處於任務飽和狀態，這意味著你無法完成所有要完成的任務。

Once you accept that you will not be able to do all the tasks you're trying to do, the next step is to prioritize the remaining tasks that you have.

一旦你接受了自己無法完成所有任務的事實，下一步就是對剩餘任務進行優先排序。

At CIA, we call this operational prioritization, which means that to continue the operation and to achieve success, we must prioritize in a very specific way.

在中央情報局，我們稱之為 "行動優先化"，這意味著為了繼續開展行動並取得成功，我們必須以非常具體的方式確定優先次序。

This is where time becomes your most valuable asset and your best friend because time is something that you can't argue with.

這時候，時間就成了你最寶貴的財富和最好的朋友，因為時間是你無法爭辯的東西。

So when the time comes that you need to operationally prioritize your tasks, you want to use time to help you put those tasks in order.

是以，當你需要對任務進行操作性優先排序時，你希望利用時間來幫助你將這些任務排序。

So you ask yourself the question, what is the next task that I can carry out in the shortest amount of time?

是以，你要問自己一個問題：我能在最短時間內完成的下一項任務是什麼？

Yes, I know it sounds simple and it sounds basic and it may even sound silly or stupid to you, but it's the very fact that that question is so elementary in nature that makes it so reliable when your whole body is working against you because you can't deny the simple truth that some tasks can be done faster than others.

是的，我知道這聽起來很簡單，聽起來很基本，對你來說甚至可能聽起來很傻或很蠢，但正是因為這個問題的性質如此基本，所以當你的整個身體都在與你作對時，這個問題才如此可靠，因為你無法否認一個簡單的事實：有些任務可以比其他任務做得更快。

And as you start to complete tasks in that lens of operational prioritization, you start to gain momentum.

當你開始從業務優先級的角度完成任務時，你就開始獲得動力。

You start to reduce your total number of tasks and you start to gain back confidence as you get back to the place where you are able to manage the remaining tasks that you have.

你開始減少任務總數，當你恢復到能夠管理剩餘任務的狀態時，你開始重拾信心。

Imagine that you and I are meeting with a terrorist asset in the foreign field.

想象一下，你和我正在國外會見一名恐怖分子。

Maybe that's somewhere in the Middle East.

Maybe that's somewhere in Southeast Asia.

也許那是在東南亞的某個地方。

And we don't know that we can trust this person.

我們不知道是否可以信任這個人。

Maybe they are carrying a bomb strapped to their chest.

Maybe they have a group of people that are waiting just outside the door to attack us as soon as we sit down.

也許他們有一幫人就等在門外，等我們一坐下就攻擊我們。

But the secrets that this person has are so valuable that it's worth the risk of trying to have the conversation.

但這個人身上的祕密是如此寶貴，值得我們冒著風險去嘗試對話。

We are going to go into that meeting and right away we will be task saturated.

我們要去參加會議，馬上就會任務飽和。

But you have to focus on the next simplest task, which really is just saying hello to this terrorist target.

但你必須專注於下一個最簡單的任務，其實就是向這個恐怖襲擊目標打個招呼。

That is a simple, stupid, basic thing but it is something that only takes a few seconds before you start making progress.

這是一件簡單、愚蠢、基本的事情，但只需要幾秒鐘，你就能開始取得進展。

Now imagine in this situation when we sit down to meet with this terrorist asset that the worst really does happen and that this terrorist stands up and pulls guns out of his pockets and points these guns at you and me and we have to immediately flip ourselves into some kind of defensive or survival mode.

現在想象一下，在這種情況下，當我們坐下來與這位恐怖分子資產會面時，最壞的情況真的發生了，這位恐怖分子站起來，從口袋裡掏出槍，用槍指著你和我，我們不得不立即將自己轉入某種防禦或生存模式。

Again, you realize that we will be in an immediate position of task saturation.

你們要再次認識到，我們將立即處於任務飽和狀態。

Here is a person in the room with us actively trying to do us harm.

這裡有一個人和我們一起在房間裡積極地試圖傷害我們。

Do we try to radio in the military to save us?

我們是否試圖通過無線電請軍隊來拯救我們？

The answer is you have to do the next fastest thing.

答案是你必須做下一件最快的事。

We are trained in that situation that the first thing you have to do is protect yourself.

在這種情況下，我們接受的訓練是，首先要做的是保護自己。

You hide behind a piece of furniture or you fall on the floor and you hide behind a large chair or a desk or a table.

你躲在傢俱後面，或者摔倒在地板上，然後躲在大椅子、書桌或桌子後面。

You try to do something to keep yourself safe.

你會想方設法保護自己的安全。

It does not take a lot of time, but it gives you the space and the momentum that you need to make the next decision.

這並不需要花費很多時間，但卻能為你提供做出下一個決定所需的空間和動力。

So from your position of cover, now you know you have one less task.

所以，從你的掩護位置出發，現在你知道自己少了一項任務。

You are now physically protected from the person with a gun.

你現在受到了人身保護，不會受到持槍者的傷害。

The answer is you have to assess the room to decide what your next step will be.

答案是，你必須對房間進行評估，以決定下一步該怎麼做。

So you use your ears, you use your eyes, you use your mouth to speak out and find out whether or not the other person that you're in the room with is safe, whether they're protected, whether or not you know where the shooter is, whether or not you're counting how many times they fired their gun.

所以，你要用耳朵、用眼睛、用嘴巴去說話，去了解與你同處一室的其他人是否安全，是否受到保護，是否知道槍手在哪裡，是否在計算他們開了多少槍。

You're making all of these decisions in real time, choosing the next fastest decision because that's what will keep you alive.

你要實時做出所有這些決定，選擇下一個最快的決定，因為只有這樣你才能活下去。

You're not trying to do the next most complicated decision.

你不是要做下一個最複雜的決定。

You're not trying to solve all the problems at one time.

你不是要一次性解決所有問題。

You are literally just trying to make the next fastest decision that you need so that you can have one less decision to make so that you can be one step closer to survival.

你簡直就是在試圖做出下一個最快的決定，這樣你就可以少做一個決定，從而離生存更近一步。

We don't often deal with life and death situations in the real world.

在現實世界中，我們並不經常面對生死攸關的情況。

We don't have to worry about whether or not someone's strapping a bomb to their chest or whether they're coming in to try to hurt us.

我們不必擔心是否有人胸前綁著炸彈，也不必擔心他們是否會試圖傷害我們。

But we do have to deal with surprises and unexpected events all the time.

但是，我們確實不得不經常面對意外和突發事件。

Surprises from our children at school, surprises from our bosses at work, surprises from our spouse at bedtime.

孩子在學校給我們的驚喜，老闆在工作中給我們的驚喜，配偶在睡前給我們的驚喜。

We never know when the next surprise will happen.

我們永遠不知道下一個驚喜何時發生。

But no matter when you find that surprise present itself, no matter when you find yourself in that moment of task saturation, your path to survival is literally as simple as doing the next fastest thing because as you accomplish those tasks, you will build momentum, you will build confidence, you will build a sense of productive activity that gets you back to the place where you feel confident with the level of tasks that you have left, and you will overcome that feeling of task saturation.

但是，無論你什麼時候發現驚喜出現，無論你什麼時候發現自己處於任務飽和的時刻，你的生存之道其實就像做下一件最快的事情一樣簡單，因為當你完成這些任務時，你會建立起動力，建立起信心，建立起一種富有成效的活動感，讓你回到你對所剩任務水準有信心的地方，你就會克服任務飽和的感覺。

One of the biggest challenges we face when we find ourselves in a moment of task saturation is that emotionally we start to say very negative things to ourselves in our own head because we have given up on rational thought.

當我們發現自己處於任務飽和狀態時，我們面臨的最大挑戰之一就是，由於放棄了理性思考，我們開始在頭腦中對自己說一些非常消極的話。

So now our brain has all this extra capacity to start using emotional thoughts.

所以，現在我們的大腦有了這些額外的能力，可以開始使用情感思維。

So instead of trying to focus on a productive outcome, our brain starts to self-criticize.

是以，我們的大腦不是努力專注於富有成效的結果，而是開始自我批評。

We actually start telling ourselves, oh, I should have never done this thing in the past or I'll never do that thing again.

實際上，我們開始告訴自己，哦，我過去不應該做這件事，或者我再也不會做那件事了。

You start to have all these negative thoughts that pile on with the brain's additional capacity by letting go of rational thought.

你開始有這些負面的想法，這些想法會隨著大腦的額外能力而堆積，讓你放棄理性思考。

這就是我們所說的 "頭部垃圾"。

It's all the junk that comes into your mind where you start to self-criticize and self-demean and self-ridicule because your brain has this additional capacity that it's not using on rational thought.

你會開始自我批評、自我貶低和自我嘲諷，因為你的大腦有了額外的能力，而不是用於理性思考。

Head trash and negative thinking can become a real problem because it actually convinces you to stop trying.

頭腦垃圾和消極思想會成為真正的問題，因為它實際上會說服你停止努力。

It convinces you that you are not capable of things that you actually are capable of doing because as soon as you start to think you can't do something that you actually have the capacity to accomplish, you end up right back in that very same place of sense-making where you try to avoid and escape instead of face a problem head on and accomplish what you know you can accomplish when you have rational thought.

它讓你相信，你沒有能力做一些你實際上有能力做的事情，因為一旦你開始認為你不能做一些你實際上有能力完成的事情，你最終就會回到那個感性的地方，在那裡你試圖迴避和逃避，而不是直面問題，完成你知道你在理性思考時可以完成的事情。

We are literally wired to doubt everything around us because that's how we survive.

我們總是懷疑周圍的一切，因為這就是我們的生存之道。

But we live in a world where we're trying to thrive and lean into and sometimes even trust the world around us.

但是，我們生活在這樣一個世界裡，我們正努力茁壯成長，並向周圍的世界靠攏，有時甚至信任周圍的世界。

But we have not evolved biologically to the place where we can do that yet.

但是，我們的生物進化還沒有到可以做到這一點的地步。

Overcoming task saturation through the simple process of being able to do the next fastest task kept us alive when we were living in caves and running from predators.

當我們生活在洞穴中躲避掠食者時，通過能夠完成下一個最快任務的簡單過程來克服任務飽和，使我們得以生存。

It will also keep us alive and help us to thrive in today's modern world because at the end of the day we still view the world around us as something that is either a threat or not a threat.

它還能讓我們保持活力，幫助我們在當今的現代世界中茁壯成長，因為歸根結底，我們仍然認為周圍的世界要麼是威脅，要麼不是威脅。

Sometimes your children coming home and throwing a fit is a threat.

有時候，孩子回家發脾氣就是一種威脅。