Name: 股市是什麼，如何運作？| 英國廣播公司新聞 (What is the stock market and how does it work? | BBC News)
Uploaded: 2025-06-05T02:24:11.000Z
Duration: 13 min 59 s

Joining me now is the BBC's business editor Simon Jack and Laura Davison, political editor from Bloomberg News.

現在加入我的是 BBC 的商業編輯西蒙-傑克和彭博新聞社的政治編輯勞拉-戴維森。

程度副詞

Laura, Simon, thank you very much indeed for being with us.

勞拉、西蒙，非常感謝你們的到來。

情態副詞

Obviously we're seeing the turmoil on the markets continue today, Monday.

顯然，我們看到市場的動盪在今天週一仍在繼續。

Simon, just in terms of understanding the basics here, can you explain to us how a stock market index works?

西蒙，就瞭解這裡的基本情況而言，你能向我們解釋一下股市指數是如何運作的嗎？

Okay, so if we were to take our own stock market index, the biggest one, which is the FTSE 100, 100 biggest companies publicly listed in the UK, they were all put in a big bucket back in 1984 and given a certain weighting in that bucket depending on how big those companies were, and it was set at a level of 1,000 back in 1984.

好吧，如果我們以自己的股票市場指數為例，最大的指數是富時 100 指數，即英國最大的 100 家上市公司，它們在 1984 年就被放在一個大桶裡，並根據這些公司的規模在桶中賦予一定的權重，1984 年的權重設定為 1000。

Now since then companies come, companies have gone, there's been takeovers and mergers, but generally speaking there's been 100 of the biggest companies and basically the stock market is a reflection of their sort of total value over time.

從那時起，公司來來去去，不斷有收購和兼併，但總的來說，最大的公司有 100 家，而股市基本上反映了這些公司在一段時間內的總價值。

The bigger the company, the more weight it has in the index, same in the US.

公司越大，在指數中的權重就越大，美國也是如此。

So you'll see, for example, an AstraZeneca or an HSBC has more weight than others, and in the US you've seen the S&P 500, which is the 500 biggest companies, you've seen enormous concentration in some names like Apple, Nvidia, et cetera, Amazon, what have you.

例如，你會看到阿斯利康或匯豐銀行的權重高於其他公司，而在美國，你會看到標準普爾 500 指數（即最大的 500 家公司）中，蘋果、英偉達（Nvidia）、亞馬遜（Amazon）等公司的權重非常集中。

And so what the stock market tells you is generally the direction of travel of most of the shares and the value of the shares in those companies with a concentration on those biggest names.

是以，股市告訴你的一般是大多數股票的走勢和這些公司的股票價值，而這些股票主要集中在那些最大的公司。

And a lot of people say one of the problems with the US stock market in recent years is those few big tech companies have had an overweening influence on the whole thing.

很多人都說，近年來美國股市的問題之一，就是那幾家大型科技公司對整個股市的影響過大。

But generally speaking it's an indication of what some of our biggest companies are worth and whether they get up or down tells you something about the sentiment of whether you think that their profits are going to rise or fall in the future.

但總的來說，它是一些大公司價值的指標，而它們的漲跌則說明了一些情緒，即你是否認為它們的利潤在未來會上升或下降。

And Laura, obviously we're seeing the falls continue today.

勞拉，很明顯，我們看到今天的跌勢仍在繼續。

And when we talk about a correction, can you explain what that means in practice?

當我們談到修正時，你能解釋一下這在實踐中意味著什麼嗎？

How much are companies, political leaders waiting to see whether there's a negotiated deal?

公司和政治領導人在等待達成談判協議的程度如何？

Because everyone's, I guess, wondering where the bottom is, where the level might lie at, and whether the market will recover.

因為我想，每個人都在想，底部在哪裡，水平線可能在哪裡，市場是否會復甦。

Yeah, so that is really the unknown question right now.

是的，所以這確實是目前未知的問題。

About $5 trillion has been zapped from markets.

約有 5 萬億美元從市場中消失。

And we are waiting for markets in the US to open here in just about an hour and a half.

我們正在等待一個半小時後美國市場的開市。

We'll get a sense of where things are headed.

我們可以期待的是更大的波動。

There's a meeting today, later today, with Netanyahu at the White House with President Trump.

今天晚些時候，內塔尼亞胡將在白宮與特朗普總統會面。

And there's a question of will there be some sort of relief from tariffs that will be announced there.

還有一個問題是，屆時是否會宣佈某種關稅減免措施。

美國和以色列是非常親密的盟友。

We got a little bit of a sense of how markets are reacting.

我們對市場的反應有了一些瞭解。

On Friday, when Trump said he had spoken with the Vietnamese and that the US officials had spoken with Vietnamese officials, and there was potentially a deal in the works for Vietnam, which has been hit with this 46% tariff by the US, which is quite a significant level, that they would reduce to zero all of their tariffs on US goods going into that country.

上週五，特朗普表示他已經與越南方面進行了交談，美國官員也與越南官員進行了交談，並有可能與越南達成一項協議，越南被美國徵收了46%的關稅，這是一個相當高的水準，他們將把進入該國的美國商品的關稅全部降為零。

We saw as a reaction, stocks like Nike and Lululemon actually increased on that news because these are apparel makers that have a very big presence there.

我們看到，耐克和 Lululemon 等股票受此消息影響而上漲，因為這些服裝製造商在當地擁有很大的市場份額。

So each, broadly, I believe we're going to see markets down.

是以，總體而言，我相信我們將看到市場下跌。

But you could see particular stocks, particular things moving in a more positive direction as there's indications that there may be some exemptions that are allowed.

但你可能會看到一些特定的股票、特定的事情朝著更積極的方向發展，因為有跡象表明可能會允許一些豁免。

We don't know that Trump will allow that.

我們不知道特朗普是否會允許這樣做。

He sent some mixed signals at times that his policies will never change, but then also suggesting that some deals are possible.

他時而發出一些混合信號，表示他的政策永遠不會改變，時而又暗示有可能達成一些交易。

And just before I start looking at some of today's reaction over the weekend, Simon, to relate this to all of us, what happens if stocks continue to fall for our pension funds or for other aspects of daily life?

在我開始分析今天週末的一些反應之前，西蒙，請把這一點與我們所有人聯繫起來，如果股票繼續下跌，對我們的養老基金或日常生活的其他方面會有什麼影響？

Okay, I think there are two things to stress here.

好吧，我認為這裡有兩點需要強調。

What happens in stock markets is not necessarily the same thing that happens in the economy.

股市中發生的事情不一定與經濟中發生的事情相同。

They can be linked, but they're not exactly the same.

它們可以聯繫起來，但並不完全相同。

Some people invest directly in shares, and this will definitely affect them.

有些人直接投資股票，這肯定會對他們產生影響。

These are some big falls, some of the biggest falls we've seen in a couple of days since pandemic panic gripped the markets back in 2020.

這是一些大跌，是自 2020 年大流行病恐慌籠罩市場以來，我們在幾天內看到的最大跌幅。

The other way that people are exposed to this is through their pension funds.

人們受到影響的另一個途徑是他們的養老基金。

Now, pension fund investing is a long-term game.

現在，養老基金投資是一個長期的遊戲。

Not all of your money will go into shares.

Some of it will go into government bonds.

部分資金將用於購買政府債券。

And the bonds are the less this will affect you.

There are also two types of pension, a defined benefit pension, where you get a price promise, a percentage of your salary in retirement, and there's defined contribution, where your pension pot's value will rise and fall with financial markets.

養老金也有兩種類型，一種是固定福利養老金，即你可以得到一個價格承諾，即你退休時工資的一個百分比；另一種是固定繳費養老金，即你的養老金罐的價值會隨著金融市場的變化而漲跌。

所以，是的，人們的養老金暴露了。

But I think that this is a long-term game, pension investing.

但我認為，養老金投資是一個長期的遊戲。

We've seen things like this before a few years ago during the pandemic.

幾年前的大流行病期間，我們就見過這樣的事情。

I think what's more important, the warning sign flashing here is not about the value of your pension.

我認為更重要的是，這裡閃爍的警示信號與養老金的價值無關。

It's about the economies in which we all live and work.

這關係到我們生活和工作的經濟體。

And a lot of people saying that the chances of a recession, both in the US, UK, and even globally, have definitely gone up a notch since then.

很多人說，從那時起，美國、英國甚至全球經濟衰退的機率都上升了一個等級。

And that has implications for things like jobs and wages.

這對就業和工資等方面都有影響。

Okay, we'll come back to define a recession in a moment, maybe.

好吧，我們稍後再討論經濟衰退的定義。

But, Laura, just let me bring a little bit of the reaction that we've had today, which raises another couple of questions.

但是，勞拉，請允許我介紹一下我們今天的反應，這又提出了幾個問題。

Because economy ministers from across the European Union are meeting in Luxembourg to discuss a response to the US tariffs.

因為來自歐盟各國的經濟部長正在盧森堡舉行會議，討論如何應對美國的關稅。

Let me just play you a brief clip of the German economics minister, Robert Habeck, responding to a question about how Donald Trump came to those calculations, those original figures, for how he is imposing these taxes and tariffs.

讓我為您播放一段德國經濟部長羅伯特-哈貝克（Robert Habeck）在回答一個問題時的簡短片段：唐納德-特朗普是如何得出這些計算結果的？

The calculations, from my point of view, are nonsense.

在我看來，這些計算都是無稽之談。

Even the basis of the calculation is nonsense.

就連計算的依據也是無稽之談。

Yes, the assumption that a trade budget surplus or deficit is a problem in itself is a wrong estimation.

是的，認為貿易預算盈餘或赤字本身就是問題的假設是錯誤的估計。

Because in the end, globalization serves all economies, and especially the American economy has huge growth figures in GDP, better than a lot of European countries.

因為歸根結底，全球化是為所有經濟體服務的，尤其是美國經濟的 GDP 增長數字巨大，比許多歐洲國家都要好。

So you see, if we, the rest of the world, are selling cheaper goods to the American economy, it's of use of the American economy.

是以，如果我們世界其他國家向美國經濟出售更便宜的商品，這對美國經濟是有益的。

So even the basis of the calculation, how shall I put it, economical philosophical basis is nonsense.

是以，即使是計算的基礎，怎麼說呢，經濟的哲學基礎也是無稽之談。

And then we have seen that these, the countries who try to ease the conflicts beforehand with the US and hoped for a are wrong.

然後我們看到，這些國家試圖事先緩和與美國的衝突，並寄希望於美國的做法是錯誤的。

So I can only say to the European partners, we have to stay united.

是以，我只能對歐洲夥伴說，我們必須保持團結。

If you try to solve the problem on your own, this will not be successful.

如果您試圖自己解決問題，那是不會成功的。

So Laura, the basis of that original calculation and some of the assumptions politically, even economically, that lie behind it, what would you say to that clip that we just heard?

那麼勞拉，你對我們剛才聽到的片段有什麼看法？

Yeah, so what the White House did in determining all of these rates, originally Trump has talked about these as reciprocal tariffs, that the White House was going to add up all of the tariff and trade barriers that certain countries charge on US goods going in, and they would basically hit back with that same level.

是的，所以白宮在確定所有這些稅率時所做的事情，最初是特朗普把這些稅率說成是互惠關稅，即白宮要把某些國家對美國商品徵收的所有關稅和貿易壁壘加在一起，而這些國家基本上會以同樣的水準還擊。

That's actually a very complicated calculation to do.

這實際上是一個非常複雜的計算過程。

Instead, they looked at essentially what the trade deficit is between the US and that country.

相反，他們關注的主要是美國與該國之間的貿易逆差。

Trump for years, literally going back four decades, has been very perturbed by the idea of trade deficits.

多年來，特朗普一直對貿易赤字感到非常不安，這簡直可以追溯到四十年前。

And he wants to see more manufacturing in the US, more goods going abroad, and that there's essentially equal trade between the US and other countries.

他希望看到更多的製造業留在美國，更多的商品走出國門，美國和其他國家之間的貿易基本上是平等的。

Of course, it's a very difficult thing to achieve.

當然，要做到這一點非常困難。

The US is a very consumer-driven economy.

美國是一個以消費者為主導的經濟體。

And a lot of manufacturing of things that people use every day, things like clothes, toys, shoes, household wares, are pretty much exclusively made overseas, not to mention things that can't be grown, like bananas or other products that people eat, coffee.

人們日常使用的很多東西，如衣服、玩具、鞋子、家居用品等，幾乎都是海外製造的，更不用說那些無法種植的東西了，如香蕉或其他人們食用的產品、咖啡等。

So this is really at the crux of the issue and the economic conundrum that we find ourselves in, is that Trump does not like trade deficits.

是以，特朗普不喜歡貿易赤字，這才是問題的癥結所在，也是我們所面臨的經濟難題。

And that's what we've seen underlying these tariffs.

這就是我們看到的這些關稅的根本原因。

This has been something he has railed against ever since well before he was into politics.

早在從政之前，他就一直在抨擊這一點。

This is an idea that he's been thinking about for a long time during his first term.

這是他在第一個任期內考慮已久的想法。

He imposed some tariffs, but they were a lot more narrow in scope and size, and you didn't see quite the market impact that you saw here.

他徵收了一些關稅，但這些關稅的範圍和規模都要窄得多，你看不到像這裡這樣的市場影響。

現在，他在政治上不再那麼剋制了。

And he has a different set of advisors around him that are much more willing to go along with these policies.

而且他身邊的顧問也與眾不同，他們更願意配合這些政策。

We saw a lot of pushback from his first-term advisors.

我們看到他的第一任顧問提出了很多反對意見。

Let me just bring in a little bit of that, because in an interesting set of events, the American billionaire Bill Ackman, who endorsed President Trump last year, has posted himself saying that the US leader was losing the confidence of business leaders and should pause his trade war.

讓我介紹一下這方面的情況，因為發生了一系列有趣的事件，去年曾支持特朗普總統的美國億萬富翁比爾-阿克曼（Bill Ackman）發帖稱，美國領導人正在失去商界領袖的信任，應該暫停貿易戰。

He posted on Next saying, the president has an opportunity to call a 90-day timeout.

他在 Next 上發帖說，總統有機會宣佈 90 天的暫停。

And he warns, if we launch economic nuclear war on every country in the world, business investment will grind to a halt, consumers will close their wallets and pocketbooks, and we will severely damage our reputation with the rest of the world.

他還警告說，如果我們對世界上每一個國家發動經濟核戰爭，商業投資將停滯不前，消費者將關閉錢包和錢袋，我們將嚴重損害我們在世界其他國家的聲譽。

Simon, I mean, it's interesting, isn't it, to hear some of those who have spoken in favour of Trump now saying this?

西蒙，我是說，聽到一些支持特朗普的人現在這樣說，是不是很有趣？

And also, Bill Ackman was very critical of Howard Lutnick, the economic secretary, saying that Howard Lutnick's firm was heavily invested in government bonds, which actually, in a time like this, do pretty well, because there's a run for safe haven.

此外，比爾-阿克曼還對經濟部長霍華德-盧特尼克提出了嚴厲批評，他說霍華德-盧特尼克的公司大量投資於政府債券，而實際上，在這種時候，政府債券的表現相當不錯，因為人們都在尋求避風港。

I had an interview with the vice chair of Goldman Sachs a few weeks ago.

幾周前，我採訪了高盛集團的副主席。

And that was when we were in this on-again, off-again Trump terrorist thing with Mexico and Canada.

那是在我們與墨西哥和加拿大之間的特朗普恐怖主義事件時有發生的。

He said, if you're a chief executive of a major company, you don't know what to do right now.

他說，如果你是一家大公司的首席執行官，你現在不知道該怎麼辦。

You don't know whether I'm not going to buy a company, I'm not going to open a factory, I don't know where to do this, I don't know where to do that, because there's so much flux.

你不知道我是不是不打算收購一家公司，我是不是不打算開一家工廠，我不知道在哪裡做這個，我不知道在哪裡做那個，因為有太多的不確定因素。

And that is actually impacting business confidence, so they will invest less, they'll hire fewer people.

這實際上影響了企業的信心，是以他們會減少投資，減少僱人。

And that applies to the US as well as others.

這既適用於美國，也適用於其他國家。