Name: 沃倫-巴菲特的現金儲備達到創紀錄的 3,250 億美元 (Warren Buffett's cash pile reaches record $325 billion)
Uploaded: 2025-02-23T00:59:26.000Z
Duration: 6 min 5 s

The latest Bank of America Fund Manager Survey showing investor cash holdings at a 15-year low.

美國銀行最新的基金經理調查顯示，投資者的現金持有量創下了 15 年來的新低。

Compare that to Warren Buffett who's sitting on a record cash pile at over $325 billion.

相比之下，沃倫-巴菲特坐擁超過 3,250 億美元的創紀錄現金。

While he's put some of that dry powder to use in the fourth quarter, he's also trimmed and exited several positions.

雖然他在第四季度使用了一些乾粉，但也削減和退出了幾個倉位。

Joining us now on this, we've got Lee Munson, President and Chief Investment Officer at Portfolio Wealth Advisors.

現在加入我們的討論的是 Portfolio Wealth Advisors 的總裁兼首席投資官 Lee Munson。

Buffett's cash holdings in particular seem to get a lot of attention because folks are concerned that it is a bearish signal for the market if Buffett is not invested in U.S. stocks.

巴菲特持有的現金似乎尤其受到關注，因為人們擔心，如果巴菲特不投資美國股票，這對市場來說是一個看跌信號。

Well, a lot of this stems from a huge sale of Apple that he did last year, and he just has a bunch of cash and he's slow to get it to use.

這很大程度上源於他去年對蘋果公司的一次鉅額出售，他擁有了一大筆現金，卻遲遲無法使用。

They have been on a buying spree with Occidental, and I think that that's something that is notable.

他們一直在瘋狂收購西方石油公司，我認為這一點值得注意。

They bought a ton in December, they bought a ton this year, and so I think it's about what qualities that Buffett likes, and he's looking for things that have strong cash flow, assets that aren't gonna go anywhere, and I think he's got a real love for Occidental because they have these quality properties, or let's just say these assets in the Permian Basin, and they're paying down debt.

他們在 12 月份買了一大堆，今年也買了一大堆，所以我認為這與巴菲特喜歡的特質有關，他在尋找現金流充沛、不會消失的資產，我認為他對西方石油公司情有獨鍾，因為他們擁有這些優質資產，或者就說二疊紀盆地的這些資產，而且他們正在償還債務。

So I think that what it really says is that this is a momentum market, it's hard to find good value right now, and I think that Buffett is waiting his time.

是以，我認為這實際上說明了這是一個動量市場，現在很難找到好的價值，我認為巴菲特在等待時機。

But I don't think we should have this, I don't think we should think just because he has a lot of cash, it means the market is ready to fall per se.

但我認為我們不應該有這種想法，我認為我們不應該因為他有大量現金，就認為市場本身已經準備好下跌。

In the past, since I think last April, it's down 30%, and so there are things in the market that are down, beaten up, left for dead, that you can buy here.

在過去，我想從去年四月開始，它已經下跌了 30%，所以市場上有些東西下跌了、被打垮了、死掉了，但你可以在這裡買到。

Lee, what do you think this tells us about Buffett's, and his team's, just longer-term strategy, just in terms of the opportunity that they have identified within Occidental?

李，你認為這對巴菲特及其團隊的長期戰略有何啟示？

They like buying beaten down stocks, they like seeing some of the companies that could potentially turn around.

他們喜歡購買被打壓的股票，喜歡看到一些可能扭虧為盈的公司。

So what is the signal, maybe, about that strategy, and what that looks like for what's ahead?

那麼，這一戰略的信號是什麼？

Well, you know, I think there's some sense that there's always gonna be Buffett haters, there's always gonna be people who think that what that team does is too slow-moving, that there's not enough opportunity set.

嗯，你知道，我認為在某種程度上，總會有人討厭巴菲特，總會有人認為巴菲特團隊的工作進展太慢，機會不夠多。

我不同意，我認為這只是他的風格。

We're in a market for years now that has been based on big tech companies promising ever-larger growth in revenues.

多年來，我們所處的市場一直以大型科技公司承諾的收入增長為基礎。

But I think that when you look at the type of trades that he's doing, and the type of positions that they're putting on, it really goes, I mean, I don't think anything's changed in 10, 15, 20 years, or even beyond that, of what their strategy is.

但我認為，當你看看他所做的交易類型，以及他們的倉位類型，就會發現，我的意思是，我不認為他們的策略在 10 年、15 年、20 年甚至更長的時間裡有任何改變。

I think that you can look at what they're buying, and it's just a completely different philosophy of the market than, is Facebook gonna hit their earnings, and are they gonna have an AI agent by the end of the year?

我認為，你可以看看他們在買什麼，這只是一個完全不同的市場哲學，而不是，Facebook是否會達到他們的盈利，他們是否會在年底前有一個人工智能代理？

To focus specifically on Occidental, though, it's interesting because, and you mentioned this in your note, it's not a company that is hedged on oil prices, and of course is at risk of the potential depression in oil prices, which is something that we have been seeing.

不過，要特別關注西方石油公司（Occidental），這很有趣，因為你在說明中提到，它不是一家對沖油價的公司，當然會面臨油價潛在低迷的風險，這也是我們一直看到的情況。

How risky does that make this name, particularly given both the geopolitical backdrop abroad, and then also here at home?

特別是考慮到國外和國內的地緣政治背景，這個名字的風險有多大？

Risk, you know, I think Buffett said risk is not knowing what you're doing, and I think that Occidental's a good example of this.

巴菲特說過，風險就是不知道自己在做什麼，我認為西方石油公司就是一個很好的例子。

I was long this stock several years back when it was in the high 50s, early 60s.

幾年前，當這隻股票還在 50 多歲、60 多歲的時候，我就在做多這隻股票。

It went sideways for a while, it wasn't making money, and I had to go and get busy.

有一段時間它停滯不前，賺不到錢，我不得不去忙碌。

Now you come back, you look around, you think, hey, this thing's down 30% from where I last traded it.

現在你回來了，環顧四周，你會想，嘿，這東西比我上次交易時跌了 30%。

We're gonna see some earnings today, we're gonna see how bad the cash flow is.

我們今天會看到一些收益 我們會看到現金流有多糟糕

I think that you have to take a longer-term view.

我認為你必須把眼光放長遠一些。

Do you think that assets in the Permian Basin are gonna be more or less valuable three, five years from now?

你認為三五年後，二疊紀盆地的資產價值會更高還是更低？

Do you think that upstream, the exploration, with Trump's America right now, do you think that's gonna be a headwind for Occidental?

你認為上游的勘探，以及特朗普現在的美國，會對西方石油公司造成不利影響嗎？

In Occidental, the narrative is confusing.

在《西方人》中，敘事令人困惑。

They've got Midstream, they've got the chemical company, they've got the carbon capture, and I think Wall Street doesn't like not having a pure play.

他們有中游公司，有化工公司，有碳捕集公司，我認為華爾街不喜歡沒有純粹的遊戲。

But I think that if you like assets, if you wanna do an asset play, and you believe that Buffett really believes so much in Occidental and their management team, I think it's worth looking at.

但我認為，如果你喜歡資產，如果你想玩資產遊戲，而且你相信巴菲特真的如此相信西方石油公司和他們的管理團隊，我認為它值得一看。

But I would rather wait for some bad earnings, I'd rather wait for Wall Street to completely leave this thing for dead.

但我寧願等待一些糟糕的收益，我寧願等待華爾街徹底拋棄這件事。

It could get worse, because their cash flow's going down right at a time that they need to be paying down debt.

情況可能會更糟，因為就在他們需要償還債務的時候，他們的現金流卻在下降。

So I'd actually like to take a page from Buffett's thing and rejoice when stock prices are down.

是以，我其實也想學學巴菲特，在股價下跌時歡呼雀躍。

I just think Occidental has a lot of risk this year.

我只是覺得西方大學今年的風險很大。

We've got a president who's trying to lower energy prices, but on the other side, he's gonna loosen up regulation, and the strategy that Occidental's doing right now, it's great.

我們有一位試圖降低能源價格的總統，但另一方面，他又要放鬆監管，而西方石油公司現在所採取的策略，非常好。

Just remember, you're not gonna get a clean narrative, it's never gonna be a hot momentum stock, and if it's gonna work, it's gonna be a sleeper hit.

只要記住，你不會得到一個乾淨的敘述，它永遠不會是一個熱門的勢頭股，如果它能成功，它將會是一個臥底熱門股。

Lee, what about some of the other moves that we've seen Berkshire make?

李，我們看到伯克希爾的其他一些舉動如何？

Consolation Brands, that's a new holding here, adding to Domino's, adding to Poolcorp, adding to SiriusXM, what does that tell you?

Consolation Brands，這是一個新的控股公司，加入 Domino's，加入 Poolcorp，加入 SiriusXM，這說明了什麼？

Well, I think he's just knee-deep in the value trade.

嗯，我覺得他只是陷入了價值交易的泥潭。

He just does not care about some of the broader things that are happening in AI or what have you.

他只是不關心人工智能或其他領域發生的一些更廣泛的事情。

They're looking at staples, they're looking at things that people use every day.

他們關注的是主食，是人們每天都在使用的東西。

Someday I'm gonna call them and say, stop charging my teenage daughter's car for 10 bucks a month.

總有一天，我會打電話給他們說，別再給我十幾歲的女兒的車充電了，一個月才 10 塊錢。

And so I think that you can look at that and I think he thinks that the U.S. consumer is just fine.

是以，我認為你可以看到這一點，我認為他認為美國消費者很好。

I just think a lot of what he's doing is unpopular right now.

我只是覺得他現在做的很多事情都不受歡迎。

And until we see some big disappointments in the MAG 7, you're not gonna see a lot of lift on these stocks.

除非我們在 MAG 7 上看到一些令人失望的大事件，否則這些股票不會有太大的升幅。

All right, Lee, always great to talk to you.

Thanks so much for taking the time to join us here this morning.

非常感謝你今天上午抽出時間來參加我們的會議。