Name: 特朗普能否打贏與中國的貿易戰？- 英國廣播公司全球服務 (Can Trump win a trade war with China? - BBC World Service)
Uploaded: 2025-02-08T13:15:05.000Z
Duration: 16 min 29 s

From the BBC World Service, this is The Global Story.

這裡是 BBC 世界廣播公司的《全球故事》。

This week, economic warfare broke out between the world's two biggest superpowers.

本週，世界上最大的兩個超級大國之間爆發了經濟戰爭。

President Trump announced a new tariff, essentially a tax, on Chinese goods coming into the US.

特朗普總統宣佈對進入美國的中國商品徵收新的關稅，實質上是一種稅收。

而現在，北京已經做出了回擊。

那麼，真的有人能贏得貿易戰嗎？

And what will the impact be on the rest of the world?

對世界其他地區會產生什麼影響？

With me today is Ritika Gupta, who is our North America business correspondent joining us from New York, and the BBC World Service Asia Pacific editor, Michael Bristow.

今天和我在一起的是 Ritika Gupta，她是我們從紐約來的北美商業記者，還有 BBC 世界廣播公司亞太地區編輯 Michael Bristow。

Well, if there's one thing we know about Donald Trump, it's that he loves tariffs.

如果說我們對唐納德-特朗普有什麼瞭解的話，那就是他喜歡關稅。

The word tariff, properly used, is a beautiful word.

關稅一詞使用得當，是一個美麗的詞。

One of the most beautiful words I've ever heard.

這是我聽過的最動聽的話之一。

I always say tariffs is the most beautiful word to me in the dictionary.

我常說，關稅對我來說是字典裡最美的詞。

They are at the heart of his economic plan for the United States.

它們是他為美國製定的經濟計劃的核心。

During his first term, and also throughout the presidential campaign, he was very clear.

在他的第一個任期內，以及在整個總統競選期間，他的態度非常明確。

He thinks tariffs are going to help make America and American people richer.

他認為關稅會讓美國和美國人民變得更富有。

And he also thinks that they're a useful tool in helping to get other countries to do exactly what he wants.

他還認為，這些都是幫助其他國家按他的意願行事的有用工具。

Before we go any further, though, I think, Ritika, we need to cover some basics.

不過，在進一步討論之前，我想，麗蒂卡，我們需要先了解一些基本知識。

You see, a tariff is a tax on imported goods from foreign countries.

你看，關稅就是對從外國進口的商品徵稅。

So Trump had proposed a 25% tax on Canada and Mexico, which have now been paused.

是以，特朗普曾提議對加拿大和墨西哥徵收 25% 的稅，現在已經暫停。

But as an example, say you had a product that was worth $4, that would result in a $1 additional charge.

但舉個例子，如果您有一個價值 4 美元的產品，那就需要額外收費 1 美元。

So the total product costing some $5 or so.

是以，總產品成本約為 5 美元左右。

President Trump repeatedly says that a tariff is a tax on a foreign country.

特朗普總統一再表示，關稅就是對外國徵稅。

No, it's not necessarily the country that pays for the tariff.

不，支付關稅的不一定是國家。

It's the importing business that typically pays that extra charge.

支付額外費用的通常是進口企業。

However, many economists have warned that these costs will be passed on to the American consumer because your businesses, your Walmarts, your targets, for instance, may be facing margin pressure.

然而，許多經濟學家警告說，這些成本將轉嫁給美國消費者，因為你們的企業、你們的沃爾瑪、你們的目標公司等可能面臨利潤壓力。

So ultimately, it'll be the consumer that pays.

And that shows up again on their receipts when they go into their big box chain stores.

而當他們走進大賣場連鎖店時，這些又會出現在他們的收據上。

So although there's been a lot of talk about the negative impacts of tariffs, for the Trump administration, there has been one big success already this week.

是以，儘管關於關稅負面影響的討論不絕於耳，但對特朗普政府來說，本週已經取得了一項重大成功。

When Donald Trump threatened to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico, he said it was largely because of concerns about border security.

當唐納德-特朗普威脅要對加拿大和墨西哥徵收關稅時，他說這主要是出於對邊境安全的擔憂。

Now, both Mexico and Canada have made big commitments to increase security at their borders.

現在，墨西哥和加拿大都做出了加強邊境安全的重大承諾。

So, Ritika, can this be seen as a big win for the use of tariffs?

那麼，Ritika，這是否可以看作是使用關稅的一大勝利？

在某些方面，露西，這很有效。

He showed in some ways the kind of the art of negotiating a deal because, as you say, Canada and Mexico did cede to Trump's demands when it came to adding extra border security.

他在某種程度上展示了談判的藝術，因為正如你所說，加拿大和墨西哥在增加額外邊境安全方面確實向特朗普的要求讓步了。

But there's also the U.S. trading off, too, in some ways.

但在某些方面，美國也在做著交易。

And many experts have said that you didn't need necessarily the threat of tariffs to get some of those things done.

許多專家說，不一定非要通過關稅威脅才能完成其中的一些任務。

And it also does cause concern and uncertainty about tit for tat and the escalation of a global trade war as well.

這也確實引起了人們對以牙還牙和全球貿易戰升級的擔憂和不確定性。

And that's what many experts and economists have been warning are the dangers of this.

而這正是許多專家和經濟學家一直警告的危險所在。

The biggest target of Trump's tariffs so far, though, has been China.

不過，迄今為止，特朗普關稅的最大目標是中國。

And economists are worried that we could be on the brink now of a real trade war between China and the U.S.

經濟學家們擔心，我們現在可能正處於中美之間真正貿易戰的邊緣。

This isn't a new war, though, because President Trump began this economic war with China during his first term when he was in office.

不過，這並不是一場新的戰爭，因為特朗普總統在他的第一個任期內就開始了這場與中國的經濟戰爭。

Mickey, why does Donald Trump see China as such an economic threat?

米奇，唐納德-特朗普為何將中國視為經濟威脅？

And it's not necessarily obvious why China should be an economic threat.

至於中國為何會成為經濟威脅，這一點並不明顯。

I think first and foremost, it's just a very, very big economy, which does a lot of trade with the United States.

我認為首先，它只是一個非常非常大的經濟體，與美國有很多貿易往來。

We're talking about half a trillion dollars.

Also, the United States is in deficit in that trade with China.

此外，美國在與中國的貿易中處於逆差狀態。

So essentially, the United States imports far more goods, hundreds of billions more goods than it exports to China.

是以，從根本上說，美國進口的商品遠遠多於出口到中國的商品，多出數千億美元。

So I think President Trump, what he does is he sees that he saw that big deficit.

是以，我認為特朗普總統的做法是，他看到了巨大的赤字。

It appears as though China's winning and the United States is losing.

Also, in his first term in office, there were some very specific things which President Trump complained about China for, which previous American officials have complained before, specifically stealing intellectual property, forcing American companies to transfer technology to Chinese firms if they wanted to set up operations in China.

此外，在特朗普總統的第一個任期內，他曾抱怨過中國的一些非常具體的事情，以前的美國官員也曾抱怨過，特別是竊取知識產權，強迫美國公司向中國公司轉讓技術，如果他們想在中國開展業務的話。

They could only do it, say, with a joint venture.

比如說，他們只能通過合資企業來實現這一目標。

Also, he accused China of currency manipulation, essentially keeping the currency at a particular level to make those exports cheaper.

此外，他還指責中國操縱貨幣，實質上是將貨幣保持在某一特定水準，以使這些出口商品更加便宜。

Mickey, China has always said it doesn't want a trade war with the US.

米奇，中國一直說不希望與美國打貿易戰。

And then we also, back in 2017, I remember Donald Trump speaking at the World Economic Forum.

我們還記得，早在 2017 年，唐納德-特朗普就在世界經濟論壇上發表過演講。

He said, we don't want to start a trade war with China.

他說，我們不想與中國打貿易戰。

But we did then see China responding with tariffs of its own in the kind of tit for tat way.

但隨後我們確實看到中國以牙還牙，以自己的關稅作為迴應。

The economy is based primarily on exports.

So if there's some barrier to those exports going to other countries, then it doesn't want them.

是以，如果出口到其他國家存在某種障礙，那麼它就不想要這些出口。

I had a look back at the list of reactions that China made when President Trump was in his first term in office.

我回顧了特朗普總統第一任期時中國所做的反應清單。

And there's a whole series of them, raising tariffs by 10 percent, then 10 percent again, 25 percent in some cases.

關稅提高了 10%，然後又提高了 10%，在某些情況下甚至提高了 25%。

They also reported the United States of the World Trade Organization.

他們還報告了世界貿易組織中的美國。

They stopped buying some products, agricultural products, particularly outright, which really affected farmers in America.

他們停止購買一些產品，尤其是農產品，這對美國農民造成了真正的影響。

So a range of tools which China used, which incidentally is the kind of tools which it's already using now with these latest tariffs imposed by President Trump.

是以，中國使用了一系列工具，順便說一句，特朗普總統最近徵收的這些關稅也是中國正在使用的工具。

Similar kind of tools, not just tariffs, but also non-tariff measures to try and harm the American economy.

類似的手段不僅有關稅，還有非關稅措施，試圖損害美國經濟。

Now, although this trade war has been simmering for several years, it really is hotting up now that Donald Trump has returned to the White House.

現在，儘管這場貿易戰已經醞釀了數年之久，但由於唐納德-特朗普重返白宮，貿易戰真正進入了白熱化階段。

Ritika, can I ask you a bit more about these latest tariffs Donald Trump has introduced?

Ritika，我能問你一些關於唐納德-特朗普最新推出的關稅的問題嗎？

What are the new tariffs on Chinese goods that he's introduced this week?

他本週對中國商品徵收的新關稅是什麼？

So some of the biggest tariffs are going to be on electronics, toys and appliances.

是以，一些最大的關稅將針對電子產品、玩具和電器。

Consumer electronics being one of the top goods imported from China to the U.S.

電子消費品是從中國進口到美國的最主要商品之一。

If you look at data, that includes cell phones, TVs, laptops, game consoles.

從數據上看，這包括手機、電視、筆記本電腦和遊戲機。

China is also a major supplier of home appliances as well.

中國也是家電產品的主要供應國。

You see a lot of footwear products also being imported into the U.S. from China.

你會看到很多鞋類產品也從中國進口到美國。

And what new tariffs, Ritika, have China announced in return?

作為回報，中國又宣佈了哪些新的關稅措施呢？

The tariffs from China are actually rather minimal.

來自中國的關稅實際上微乎其微。

They're seen as not such an aggressive approach as 10 to 15 percent levies on selected goods.

在人們看來，這並不像對特定商品徵收 10%至 15%的稅那麼激進。

So part of China's countermeasures include an import taxes on U.S. coal and LNG.

是以，中國的部分反制措施包括對美國煤炭和液化天然氣徵收進口稅。

That's 10 percent and a 15 percent charge on crude oil.

And as well as fuel, China has also slapped a 10 percent tariff on agricultural machinery, pickup trucks and some large cars.

除燃料外，中國還對農業機械、皮卡和一些大型汽車徵收 10% 的關稅。

And they've also announced some non-tariff measures as well.

他們還宣佈了一些非關稅措施。

One of which is a probe into Google and an anti-monopoly investigation into that tech giant.

其中之一就是對谷歌的調查和對這家科技巨頭的反壟斷調查。

And, Mikki, is there any indications yet as to how these U.S. tariffs are going to affect the Chinese economy?

米基，是否有跡象表明美國的這些關稅將對中國經濟產生什麼影響？

Just at the moment, when the Chinese authorities need their economy, need people to be spending more money, it's going to hit those manufacturers that sell to the United States.

就在此時此刻，當中國政府需要他們的經濟，需要人們花更多的錢時，這將打擊那些銷往美國的製造商。

So it's definitely an unwelcome thing when it comes to China.

是以，說到中國，這絕對是一件不受歡迎的事情。

But because they've been through this before, because Trump did this to them in his last term, are they better prepared in a way?

但是，因為他們以前經歷過這種情況，因為特朗普在上屆任期中對他們做了這種事，他們是否在某種程度上準備得更好了呢？

Have they got a strategy of how to deal with it?

Decoupling from the U.S., but diversifying their markets as well.

與美國脫鉤，但也要實現市場多元化。

I don't think decoupling is remotely possible.

We're talking about trade, hundreds of billions of two way trade between these two countries every year.

我們談論的是貿易，是兩國之間每年數千億的雙向貿易。

There has been some attempts by America, particularly President Biden, to try and not sell certain technology products, high end technology products to China.

美國，特別是拜登總統，曾試圖不向中國出售某些技術產品，高端技術產品。

But the two economies are so integrated that decoupling is is really impossible.

但是，這兩個經濟體已經融為一體，脫鉤實際上是不可能的。