Name: 為什麼我們還在談判汽車價格？| Andrej Levin | TED@BCG 2024 (Why do we still negotiate the price of cars? | Andrej Levin | TED@BCG 2024)
Uploaded: 2025-01-06T10:21:33.000Z
Duration: 10 min 1 s

When was the last time you had to negotiate price in your personal life?

您上一次在個人生活中需要談判價格是什麼時候？

程度副詞

Do you remember a purchase where you knew there's a discount to get, you just need to ask for it?

你是否還記得，在一次購物中，你知道會有折扣，只需提出要求即可獲得？

But do you also remember how uncomfortable you might have felt and actually asking the question on price?

但是，你是否還記得，在實際詢問價格問題時，你可能會感到多麼不自在？

Price negotiations can be painful, stressful, but luckily they are getting rare.

價格談判可能很痛苦、很緊張，但幸運的是，這種情況越來越少。

They were a big thing over centuries, but in at least in geographies and depending on the culture, but in most parts of the western world they're almost disappearing.

在過去的幾個世紀裡，它們曾是一件大事，但至少在不同的地域和不同的文化中，但在西方世界的大部分地區，它們幾乎正在消失。

For most consumers the last significant negotiation they had to go through was when buying a car.

對於大多數消費者來說，他們上一次不得不經歷的重大談判是在買車時。

I work in the automotive industry and help car manufacturers around the world to think of their sales journey and people ask me what is it with auto?

我在汽車行業工作，幫助世界各地的汽車製造商思考他們的銷售之路，人們問我汽車是怎麼回事？

Why is price negotiation still such a big thing in automotive where everybody dislikes it?

為什麼在人人都不喜歡價格談判的汽車行業，價格談判仍然如此重要？

Car manufacturers produce cars and then sell them to independent retailers and those independent retailers find their customers and negotiate price with every individual customer.

汽車製造商生產汽車，然後賣給獨立零售商，獨立零售商尋找客戶，與每個客戶談判價格。

這就導致了一種相當極端的情況。

The traditional car manufacturers such as Toyota, Ford, BMW, Mercedes, Svante's group, if they were to sell 5,000 vehicles of one specific configuration, they would sell it to 5,000 different price points because every deal is individually negotiated means 5,000 negotiations.

傳統的汽車製造商，如豐田、福特、寶馬、奔馳、斯萬特集團，如果他們要銷售 5000 輛特定配置的汽車，就會按照 5000 個不同的價位銷售，因為每一筆交易都是單獨談判，意味著要進行 5000 次談判。

This creates a small group of people which did a great deal, but for the vast majority of consumers it means they have the feeling and the reality actually that they have overpaid and there are logical reasons why someone should pay more.

這就產生了一小部分做了大買賣的人，但對絕大多數消費者來說，這意味著他們有一種感覺，而實際上，他們已經多付了錢，有人應該多付錢是有邏輯原因的。

So if you buy one car and someone else buys 10 cars like a business owner, like it's fair that a higher discount is applied, but if your neighbor for no other reason than being more aggressive and in negotiations got a better deal, it kind of feels wrong.

是以，如果你買了一輛車，而其他人買了 10 輛車，就像一個企業主一樣，享受更高的折扣是公平的，但如果你的鄰居沒有其他原因，只是在談判中更積極，得到了更好的交易，這就有點不對勁了。

And let me be explicit about the spread here.

讓我在這裡明確說明一下差價。

What you see here are the transaction prices of one car in one market at a given point of time.

您在這裡看到的是某一特定時間點某一市場上一輛汽車的交易價格。

And you see in the top left corner, there's a group which managed to buy this car at least price for $40,000, almost no discount got applied.

你看左上角，有一組人成功地以最低價 4 萬美元買下了這輛車，幾乎沒有任何折扣。

Let's call this group the negotiation avoiders.

我們姑且稱這部分人為 "談判迴避者"。

In the bottom right corner, you see a group, a lucky group, which managed to buy the same car in the same market for $24,000, so almost 40% below list price.

在右下角，你會看到一組幸運兒，他們成功地在同一市場上以 2.4 萬美元的價格買到了同一輛車，幾乎比標價低了 40%。

Let's call this group the negotiation extremists.

我們姑且稱這部分人為談判極端分子。

And this could be, by the way, you and your neighbors.

順便說一句，這可能就是你和你的鄰居。

So you might think at this stage, I'm the guy knowing the data, knowing the industry, and I should be going straight for 40%.

是以，你可能會認為，在這個階段，我是瞭解數據、瞭解行業的人，我應該直奔 40% 而去。

But don't blame me, because many of you also knew before I showed the slide that there's a huge discount you could get an auto, and you didn't get the 40%.

但不要怪我，因為在我放幻燈片之前，你們中的很多人也知道汽車可以有很大的折扣，但你們沒有拿到 40% 的折扣。

Negotiation avoiders, please count me in, when it comes to the point of actually negotiating price, oh gosh, it gets awkward.

避免談判的人，請把我算進去，一旦到了真正談價格的時候，天哪，就尷尬了。

Like say it's people eat us for breakfast.

比如說，人們把我們當早餐吃。

Again, I'm not talking like niche group of people, I mean like serious business people who negotiate price in their business life all day long, they mess up buying a car and negotiating a great deal.

我再說一遍，我說的不是小眾群體，我指的是那些整天在生意場上談價的正經生意人，他們在買車時會搞砸，談成一筆大買賣。

It is so awkward that this group, even month after they have purchased the car, they keep researching the price of the car they already have just to confirm what they already knew they have overpaid.

令人尷尬的是，這群人甚至在購車一個月後，還在不斷研究他們已經擁有的汽車的價格，以確認他們已經知道自己多付了錢。

And then there is this group of extremists, the negotiation extremists.

還有一群極端分子，即談判極端分子。

This is a group of people who love the challenge, they love the competition, like sometimes it feels like they are more interested in getting a great deal than they actually in buying a car.

這群人喜歡挑戰，喜歡競爭，有時感覺他們對獲得實惠比對買車更感興趣。

But this group, like they would shop around between dealers of the same brand, they would engage on the back intense back and forth with the sales agent, they would be even brave enough to ask to speak to the sales manager to see if they can squeeze another percentage point.

但這群人，就像他們會在同一品牌的經銷商之間貨比三家，他們會與銷售代理來來回回地激烈交鋒，他們甚至會勇敢地要求與銷售經理交談，看看能否再擠出一個百分點。

They would often use poor acting skills to display how much they dislike the product they actually want to buy.

他們往往會用拙劣的演技來表現自己有多麼不喜歡自己真正想買的產品。

And yes, they would have the patience to wait a month or two until they get what they want, the 40%.

是的，他們會有耐心等上一兩個月，直到得到他們想要的東西--那 40%。

It takes courage and personality to pull that off.

要做到這一點，需要勇氣和個性。

And I'm a bit jealous about the 40% they're getting.

我有點嫉妒他們能拿到 40% 的收入。

But oh my gosh, in no word can I imagine to be that person.

但是，天哪，我無論如何也想象不出自己是那個人。

I'm still not judging, but it's not only me.

我仍然不做評判，但這不僅僅是我一個人的問題。

A significant amount of people, actually the vast majority of people, hate those negotiations.

很多人，實際上是絕大多數人，都討厭這些談判。

And if you were to videotape consumers, which are more on the red side of the chart, at the moment of them buying the car, you would see it.

如果你給消費者（在圖表中更偏向於紅色）在買車時錄像，你就會看到這一點。

The first thing you would see is consumers would postpone any discussion on price to the latest moment possible.

首先，你會發現消費者會將任何關於價格的討論延後到可能的最晚時刻。

Shortly before asking the question, they would even come up with the most ridiculous relevant questions about the product, just within a few seconds before actually asking the price question.

在提問前不久，他們甚至會在真正提出價格問題前的幾秒鐘內，想出與產品相關的最荒唐的問題。

And then, oh gosh, then it gets really interesting.

然後，哦，天哪，就變得非常有趣了。

Because you would see grown-up people, out of nowhere, they get smaller, they crumble, you would see them stare to the ground, their voice would get quieter, and then they stumble something like, is there something we can do about the price?

因為你會看到成年人突然變小、崩潰，你會看到他們盯著地面，他們的聲音變得越來越小，然後他們磕磕絆絆地說，我們能為價格做些什麼嗎？

Look, the stress level at this stage is so high, they can't even receive the answer to the question they just raised.

你看，這個階段的壓力有多大，他們甚至無法得到剛剛提出的問題的答案。

And the sales agent just simply could say, no, it's actually a good price, nothing I can do, and all the bravery would be killed, no follow-up questions to ask, like, it does make no research and no science to prove it is so wrong to do this to your customers.

而銷售代理只是簡單地說，不，這其實是個好價格，我無能為力，所有的勇氣都會被扼殺，沒有後續問題可問，比如，它確實沒有做任何研究，也沒有科學依據來證明對客戶這樣做是大錯特錯的。

However, we did the research and we did the science, and we found that two out of three consumers would be willing to pay a thousand dollars incremental on top on the purchase price just to avoid the situation.

然而，我們做了研究和科學調查，發現每三個消費者中就有兩個願意在購買價格的基礎上多支付一千美元，以避免出現這種情況。

Just to avoid not having a negotiation, everybody would pay the same, and they would have full peace of mind.

只是為了避免沒有談判，每個人都付同樣的錢，他們就可以完全放心了。

A thousand dollars, this is how much people hate negotiations.

一千美元，這就是人們對談判的厭惡程度。

So it doesn't fly for consumers, but it flies for the car manufacturers and the dealers.

是以，這對消費者來說是行不通的，但對汽車製造商和經銷商來說卻是可行的。

Most of the car manufacturers try to proclaim a premium customer experience.

大多數汽車製造商都在努力宣揚優質的客戶體驗。

Some of them are going further and saying, like, it's a luxury experience we want to create here.

其中有些人更進一步，說我們要在這裡創造一種奢華的體驗。

But price research, price comparization, price settlement, it's the opposite of luxury.

但是，價格研究、價格比較、價格結算，這與奢侈恰恰相反。

In luxury, we want to make wealthy people, or at least those who pretend to be wealthy, feel that price doesn't matter and it's not the most important thing.

在奢侈品領域，我們要讓富人，或者至少是那些假裝富有的人，覺得價格並不重要，也不是最重要的。

It also hurts the dealers, especially those dealers who in condensed networks, two out of three report the biggest competitor they have is not a dealer of a different brand, it's a dealer of the same brand.

這也損害了經銷商的利益，尤其是那些在壓縮網絡中的經銷商，三分之二的經銷商表示，他們最大的競爭對手不是不同品牌的經銷商，而是同一品牌的經銷商。

Because this whole system of price negotiation fosters a situation where you have a very unhealthy inter-brand competition because people keep and keep comparing prices.

因為整個價格談判體系助長了品牌間的惡性競爭，因為人們會不斷地比較價格。

Online could be a really cool thing to automotive because it could simplify the customer purchase, it could optimize supply chains, and almost every car manufacturer is trying their version of an online model, but they're all failing.

對於汽車行業來說，在線模式可能是一件很酷的事情，因為它可以簡化客戶的購買流程，優化供應鏈，幾乎所有的汽車製造商都在嘗試自己版本的在線模式，但都以失敗告終。

The reason is nobody trusts the online price.

原因是沒有人相信網上的價格。

Everybody knows even the price is attractive online.

大家都知道，網上的價格也很誘人。

This is my starting point to go to my negotiator.

這是我去找談判代表的出發點。

沒有人相信它，沒有人在網上購物。

So economists for years were arguing against the fixed price model because you need to understand specific customer needs and the market, but this practice led to 5,000 price points for 5,000 vehicles in 5,000 negotiations.

是以，經濟學家們多年來一直反對固定價格模式，因為你需要了解特定客戶的需求和市場，但這種做法導致在 5000 次談判中為 5000 輛車設定了 5000 個價格點。

And we have seen that traditional car manufacturers were playing that, but the industry challenges such like the new electric vehicle players like Tesla and Rivian, they have not only shaken up the industry with new electric vehicles, they're also piloting a pretty new customer experience because they are selling their cars at a fixed price model.

我們看到，傳統汽車製造商也在玩這個遊戲，但特斯拉和 Rivian 等新型電動汽車製造商面臨著行業挑戰，他們不僅用新型電動汽車撼動了行業，還在試行一種全新的客戶體驗，因為他們以固定價格模式銷售汽車。

So the price is the price, the price might change in any given moment of time.

是以，價格就是價格，價格在任何時候都可能發生變化。

There might be even temporary campaigns available, but in those moments of discount, the price applies to everyone.

甚至可能會有臨時活動，但在這些打折時刻，價格適用於所有人。

There's no such a thing like negotiations.

And most or many car manufacturers or pockets of geographies try to pilot the same, so they're going this direction.

而大多數或許多汽車製造商或小部分地區也在嘗試進行同樣的試點，所以他們正在朝著這個方向發展。

However, going for a fixed price model also might be a bit risky because if you have only one shot instead of 5,000 shots to be right with your price, you better be right with your price.

不過，採用固定價格模式也可能有些風險，因為如果你只有一個鏡頭，而不是 5000 個鏡頭，那麼你最好對得起自己的價格。

Otherwise, you mess up business big time.

And being right with your price takes a bit because you need to understand the elasticities, the supply chain ability, inventory levels, the competitive situation, a lot of factors.

正確定價需要一點時間，因為你需要了解彈性、供應鏈能力、庫存水準、競爭狀況等諸多因素。

Maybe this complexity also is maybe one of the reasons why it wasn't applied so far.

也許這種複雜性也是它至今未被應用的原因之一。

However, AI is changing the game here because we have seen and built models are capable to solve this complexity and to find close to optimal price scenarios for any moment of time.

然而，人工智能正在改變遊戲規則，因為我們已經看到並建立了模型，能夠解決這種複雜性，並在任何時刻找到接近最佳的價格方案。

So having said all that, I strongly believe price negotiations in automotive and other industries, they will disappear.

綜上所述，我堅信汽車和其他行業的價格談判將會消失。

And I'm sure it's not only me, many of you will like it as well.

我相信不僅是我，你們中的很多人也會喜歡它。

Maybe not all of your extremist neighbors, but the majority of consumers for sure.

也許不是你所有極端主義的鄰居，但肯定是大多數消費者。

Imagine a future where the next car you will buy, you go online, you find an attractive product, you find a price you can afford, and you would know from the moment on, this is the price you will end up paying.

想象一下，在未來，當你下一次購買汽車時，你會上網找到一個有吸引力的產品，找到一個你能負擔得起的價格，而且從那一刻起，你就知道這就是你最終要支付的價格。

And then you would go offline to a retailer and instead of meeting a sales agent, you would meet a product genius.

然後，你去線下零售商那裡，見到的不是銷售代理，而是產品天才。

So someone who is all about the product, the features in and around the car.

是以，一個人必須對產品、汽車內外的功能瞭如指掌。

Someone who technically even can't change the price because the price is the price.

技術上甚至不能改變價格的人，因為價格就是價格。

And by end of the discussion, you would not be forced into this painful, crumbling situation of asking the ugly question on discount.

討論結束時，你就不會被迫陷入這種痛苦、崩潰的境地，提出打折扣的醜陋問題。