What that is and why it matters are our first topics this Tuesday; I'm Carl Azuz.

我們這週二的第一個話題，就是經濟衰退是什麼，以及為什麼它很重要。我是 Carl Azuz。

A popular definition of recession is "two consecutive quarters of decreasing economic growth".

經濟衰退普遍的定義就是「連續兩季的經濟下滑」。

Sounds technical and maybe not something of major concern.

聽起來很專業，感覺或許不是什麼太大問題。

So, why is it?

那麼，為什麼還是個問題呢?

A healthy economy is always growing; it's always expanding.

一個健全的經濟會持續增長和擴大。

So, if you have at least two quarters in a row, basically a six-month period or more when the economy is shrinking,

所以，如果有經濟連續萎縮至少兩季，基本上是六個月或更久

you're likely to see company sales drop, gross domestic product drop, exports drop, people losing jobs and having trouble finding new ones, and consumers spending less money on goods.

很有可能就會看到公司銷售下降、國內生產總值下降、出口下降，人們失業找不到新工作，且消費者商品花費減少。

That's not all happening right now.

這些情況現在還沒有全部發生。

The US economy did contract⏤or shrink⏤in the first quarter of this year, but consumer spending was strong in the winter and early spring, and the jobs picture is, overall, a good one.

今年第一季，美國經濟確實收縮或萎縮，但消費者買氣在冬季和初春還是很旺盛，且就業情況總體不錯。

The unemployment rate is very low and the economy has added 400,000 jobs or more in each month of 2022.

美國失業率非常低，且經濟在2022年的每個月，都創造了至少40萬個工作機會。

These are some reasons why President Joe Biden said last month that he wasn't concerned about a recession anytime soon.

這就是為何總統Joe Biden上個月表示他不擔心經濟衰退會馬上出現。

However, there are economic storm clouds over America⏤inflation is a big one we've talked about.

然而，美國還是被經濟動盪的烏雲壟罩，而通貨膨脹是之前提過的大問題。

The jump in prices of many things we buy hit their highest levels in decades last year, and they've only gotten worse since then.

去年的物價上漲來到了幾十年來的最高峰，而且情況越來越糟。

The President's critics blame his policies for driving up oil prices, which are a major factor in inflation, and they say government spending from the 1.9-trillion-dollar COVID relief package he signed last year also caused inflation to get worse.

批評者把矛頭指向總統推高油價的政策，因為油價是造成通膨的一項主要因素；他們也說，政府去年簽署1.9萬億美元的疫情救災方案，當中的開支也導致通膨更嚴重。

That package came in addition to those passed during the Trump administration.

該方案是額外加在川普政府舊方案上的

Inflation is expected to be a major issue in the upcoming US midterm elections, one that could hurt President Biden's fellow Democrats who currently control both chambers of Congress.

通貨膨脹預計會是接下來美國選舉的重大議題，而且可能會傷害到目前控制國會兩院的民主黨同僚。

America's Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, says keeping prices in check is really its job, not the President's, but even the Fed's been criticized for its response to inflation.

美國中央銀行 (即美聯儲) 表示，確保物價不是總統的工作，是它們的工作。但是即使是美國聯準會對通膨的反應也飽受批評。

Has this booming pandemic economy run out of steam?

這看似回升的疫情經濟，是否停滯下來了?

Despite widespread job growth, a housing market frenzy, and a monster gain on the S&P 500 last year, many economists and CEOs now warn a recession could be looming.

儘管去年有大幅的就業成長、炒房風潮，且標準普爾500指數也大幅增加，許多經濟學家和執行長仍警告經濟衰退可能就在眼前。

As the Federal Reserve tries to tame high inflation by aggressively hiking interest rates, even the head of the Fed himself admits central bankers probably should have acted sooner

隨著美聯儲想透過積極加息來抑制通膨，主席自己也承認，中央銀行應盡快採取行動

Hindsight says we should've moved earlier.

回頭看來，我們當初應該更早行動。

We're gonna use our tools, and we're gonna get this done.

我們會使用工具把這件事處理好。

Now the challenge for the Fed is this: Slowing the economy enough to get inflation under control, but not so much that it lurches into recession.

美聯儲現在面臨的挑戰，是要透過放緩經濟來控制通貨膨脹，但又不至於使經濟陷入衰退。

It's the search for the so-called "soft landing", but it won't be easy.

也就是尋找所謂的「軟著陸」，但這並不容易。

The chances of pulling off are very, very low because they have to push up the unemployment rate.

成功的機率非常非常低，因為他們必須增加失業率

And in the past when you pushed up the unemployment rate, you've almost never been able to avoid a full-fledged recession.

從過往經驗來看，增加失業率就無法避免全面的經濟衰退。

As recession fears grow, investors are dumping stocks and other risky assets.

因為越來越擔心經濟衰退，投資客正拋售股票和其他風險資產。

Everything from the tech sector to retail stocks to Bitcoin has plunged.

科技業、零售股，再到比特幣，一切都在暴跌。

Other factors like Russia's invasion of Ukraine and COVID-19 lockdowns in China, they aren't helping the outlook.

其他因素，像是俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭、中國疫情封城，都對前景沒有幫助。

So if the US economy does slide into recession, what shape will it take?

所以，如果美國經濟確實衰退，將以何種形式出現呢？

There's an alphabet soup of possibilities.

其實像字母湯般，有許多的可能性。

The V-shaped curve is the best-case scenario; it's a sharp drop followed by an equally sharp recovery.

最好的情況是V型曲線，這是急劇下降後，又急劇恢復。

Often, that results from a... a one-time shock to the economy, like we saw at the beginning of the pandemic

這往往發生在經濟受到一次性衝擊時，就像我們在疫情剛開始時看到的那樣。

The U-shaped curve is a more drawn-out recession that takes a few years for GDP to fully recover.

U形態曲線，則是一種持續更久的衰退，通常需要幾年時間，國內生產總值才能完全恢復。

Now, that occurred in the mid-1970s, during the oil crisis and a period of stagflation.

這發生在70年代中期，也就是石油危機和停滯型通膨時期。

Then there's the dreaded L-shaped or "hockey stick" recession⏤that's the worst case.

最糟糕的情況，就是可怕的L型曲線，或稱曲棍球式的衰退。

That's when a prolonged recession turns into a full-blown depression⏤the Great Depression is a classic example.

這發生在長期的經濟衰退變成全面的經濟蕭條，1929-1933年的經濟大蕭條就是一個經典例子。

But some economists argue the financial crisis, which started in 2007 and took nearly 6 years for a full recovery, also met that L-shaped definition.

但有些經濟學家認為，L型的定義也可以套用在2007年爆發、花了近六年時間才完全恢復的金融危機。

There's also the W, when the economy bounces back quickly, only to slide right back into recession.

還有另一種W型情況，就是經濟迅速反彈，又直接進入衰退。

And finally, there's the K.

最後一種是K型曲線

Now, that's when different sectors of the economy rebound more quickly than others, creating two separate recovery lines.

也就是當經濟體的某些部門比其他部門反彈回升得更快，形成兩條分開的復甦曲線。

Some economists argue that's what really happened after the start of the pandemic, when low-income workers were the last to feel the economy come back.

一些經濟學家認為，這就是疫情剛開始的實際情況，當時低收入的工人對經濟復甦是最無感的。

That's a lot of letters, but remember, a recession is just a possibility at this point.

經濟衰退可以依字母分成很多類型，但請記住，經濟衰退現在只是一種可能性。

Still, it's what economists are treating very seriously.

不過，經濟學家還是非常認真看待。

I was talking to a bunch of professional forecasters the other day, and one after another said they can't remember an environment where it was this uncertain.

前幾天我和一群專業預報員聊天，他們都不記得之前有像現在如此不確定的環境。

The lockdowns in China on top of an already fragile economy, [the] war in Europe, [and] galloping inflation in the United States, you have the makings of a perfect storm.

中國在經濟快撐不住時進行封城、歐洲戰爭、美國的通貨膨脹急劇上升，可以說造成經濟風暴的條件都滿足了。

Global recession, it's a risk; it's not a certainty, but it's a pretty scary risk

儘管還不確定，但經濟衰退是相當可怕的風險。

A risk that American families are, increasingly, beginning to fear.

該風險造成美國家庭開始人心惶惶。

10-second trivia: Speedee was once a mascot of which restaurant chain?

10秒瑣事：Speedee曾是哪家連鎖餐廳的吉祥物?

Checkers, Wendy's, Steak 'n Shake, or McDonald's.

Checkers、Wendy's (溫蒂漢堡)、 Steak and Shake， 還是麥當勞?

In the 1950s, Speedee smiled on signs and bags for McDonald's.

1950年代，Speedee 曾在麥當勞的標誌和包裝袋上微笑著。

In Russia, hundreds of foreign companies have cut back on operations, suspended them for the time being, or quit doing business there altogether since Russia's military invaded Ukraine on February 24.

自從俄羅斯軍隊2月24日入侵烏克蘭以來，俄羅斯數百家外商已削減營運、暫時中止營運或直接退出。

McDonald's, which had temporarily shut down almost 850 restaurants in Russia, just announced it's leaving the country for good.

麥當勞不久前才在俄羅斯暫時關閉近850家分店，剛剛又正式宣佈要永遠撤離俄羅斯。

The burger chain says the humanitarian crisis caused by the war in Ukraine plus an unpredictable operating environment contributed to its decision to sell its Russia business.

漢堡連鎖店 (麥當勞) 表示，烏克蘭戰爭造成的人道主義危機和不可測的經營環境，使他們售出俄羅斯麥當勞企業。

The jobs of more than 60,000 employees are now in question, and McDonald's could take a hit as its 955 locations in Russia and Ukraine combined accounted for 9% of its revenue last year.

超過6萬名員工的工作現在成了問題，麥當勞也可能為此受到重創，因為它去年營收，有9%來自俄羅斯和烏克蘭共955家的分店。

The decision closes the door on more than 30 years of McDonald's operations in Russia.

這決定為麥當勞在俄羅斯30多年的營運畫下句點。

Here's a very different-sounding CNN report from 1990 when that door was opened.

其實1990年麥當勞在當地開始營運時，CNN的報導跟現在聽起來很不同

In a dismal season for the Soviet economy, a golden vision of hope [is] on the horizon.

在蘇聯經濟一片慘淡下，麥當勞是剛浮現的新希望。

(January 31, 1990. McDonald's opens in the Soviet Union)

1990年1月31號，麥當勞在蘇聯正式開幕

Wednesday, after a dozen years of preparation, McDonald's opens its largest restaurant in its 52nd country.

經過十幾年的準備，麥當勞星期三在第52個國家正式營運，且開幕的餐廳是目前為止最大的

Payment in rubles only.

但只用盧布付款

Unlike the new hard-currency stores, which have made life seem better for foreigners and privileged Russians, that left a great majority resentfully out in the cold.

不同於那些可用強勢貨幣付款的商店 (強勢貨幣僅讓外國人和有特權的俄羅斯人使用) ，麥當勞讓絕大多數人憤憤不平地在外面受寒

Inside, room for 700 with an international motif that combines Big Ben with Big Mac.

裡面有容納700人空間，還有結合大笨鐘和大麥克漢堡的主題設計

For the novice, instructions on what to order with your cheeseburger.

如果你是第一次來的話，這邊會教你如何點起司漢堡

Maybe a milkshake, glorying in the name "morozhenoye cocktail", ice cream cocktail.

或是一款以莫羅西尼命名為傲的奶昔，也就是冰淇淋雞尾酒。

600 young Soviets have had a month of training in a way of working unfamiliar to the Soviet Union⏤fast and hard.

600名蘇聯的年輕人接受一個月的培訓，試圖適應這快速而努力的工作模式。

The usual order of the day here is service with a snarl.

這裡的點餐服務通常充斥著咆哮

But McDonald's has set out to change that with a zeal, only partly missionary.

但麥當勞已經著手改變現況，只有某程度上是來自傳教的熱情

We're not evangelists, so, uh, it's sort of neat to see the young crews and to see them smile and say, "Thank you, please come back again."

我們不是傳教士，所以看到年輕員工面帶笑容說「謝謝你們，歡迎再來」是很妙的一件事。

And the Soviet kids in uniform sure look like converts.

而那些穿著制服的蘇聯孩子，看起來確實像改變信仰的人。

People, they are very nice.

大家人都非常好。

Always smiling and, as you know, in Moscow, not in every restaurant you can find smiling people.

總是面帶微笑，通常在莫斯科，很難能在餐廳找到面帶微笑的人。

A meal here will cost two or three hours' wages for the average Soviet citizen, but you may think it's worth it.

普通的蘇聯公民吃一頓飯通常就要花兩三個小時的工資，但他們可能認為很值得。

Here's the competition.

這裡的競爭是。

A place that sells pelmeni, meat-filled dumplings, guaranteed to stay with you.

一個賣俄國餃子的地方，即肉餡的餃子，必能讓你留下來

Muscovites are used to queuing up for something to eat.

莫斯科人習慣排隊買東西吃。

The difference at McDonald's is they promise there'll be something left when you get to the head of the line.

麥當勞的不同之處在於，他們承諾當你走到隊伍的前列時，會有一些東西剩下。

Two weeks ago, we told you about the longest glass-bottomed bridge on or above the earth.

兩週前，我們向大家介紹了地球上或地球上空最長的玻璃底吊橋。

Today, we're taking you across the world's longest suspension footbridge, which stretches for a little under half a mile, but over a deep mountain valley in the Czech Republic, about 312 feet over it.

今天，我們將帶你穿越世界上最長、延了不到半英里的吊橋，這吊橋座在捷克共和國的一個深山峽谷上空，大約有312英尺。

It's mainly supported by six cables; it took two years and almost $8.5 million to build.

它主要由六條電纜支持，花了兩年時間和近850萬美元來建造

Pedestrians say it gives a great view, but it does shake.

行人說吊橋上視野很好，但確實有點晃。

So, if you're looking to shake a leg; shake, rattle, and roll; shake it up; shake your groove thing; shake, shake, shake your booty and, hopefully, not shake anything off the bridge,

是以，如果你想搖一搖腿、shake, rattle and roll (知名藍調歌曲)、shake your groove thing (一首搖擺樂)、搖一搖你的屁股，但注意不要把任何東西搖下橋 (掉下橋)。

it could be kind of fun if you're not shaking with fear or shaking at the knees after getting roped into a suspenseful, shaky-bridge shake-off.

如果你沒有因害怕而發抖，或被說服上橋後因橋太晃而膝蓋直發抖，那應該會滿有趣的。

I'm Carl Azuz, and that about spans all the bridge puns I got left.

我是Carl Azuz，這是我能想到關於橋的雙關語。

Massabesic Middle School; shout-out to our viewers in Waterboro, Maine for subscribing and leaving a comment at youtube.com/CNN.

我想向 Massabesic 中學，也就是緬因州沃特伯勒觀眾們致意，謝謝你們訂閱CNN的YouTube頻道和留言。