Name: 中國如何佈局對抗川普？ (How China Plays the Long Game Against Trump)
Uploaded: 2026-03-27T21:43:06.000Z
Duration: 10 min 34 s
Description: 【看影片學英語】數萬部 YouTube 影片，搭配英漢字典即點即查，輕鬆掌握單字發音與用法，長久累積看電影不必再看字幕。

進階被動語態

There's a phrase which China's President Xi Jinping likes to use: the world is undergoing changes which have not been seen in 100 years.

中國國家主席習近平有個常說的說法：世界正經歷百年未有之大變局。

Now these changes have appeared to arrive, but they're delivered unexpectedly by Donald Trump.

而現在，這些變局似乎真的來了，而且是由唐納·川普意外地帶來的。

Amid the noise of war, the stance of another major power is speaking volumes.

在戰火的喧囂中，另一個大國的立場卻說明瞭一切。

中方敦促各方立即停止军事行动。 The U.S.

中方敦促各方立即停止軍事行動。美國

is demonstrating itself to be a force for instability in the world,

正在向世界展現自己是個不穩定的力量，

and that gives President Xi and China a chance to present themselves as the adults in the room.

這讓習近平和中國有機會將自己塑造成房間裡的成年人。

China is happy to see the United States getting bogged down in the Middle East.

中國樂見美國在中東泥足深陷。

China has long viewed the existing order as being too dominated by the U.S., so Trump's challenges to that order actually present Xi Jinping a very good opportunity,

中國早就認為現有的秩序過度由美國主導，所以川普對這個秩序的挑戰，其實給了習近平一個很好的機會，

and the question is whether Xi is ready to seize it.

而問題在於習近平是否準備好抓住這個機會。

Trump's first trade war made China realize that dependence on the U.S. is a very dangerous thing.

川普的第一次貿易戰讓中國意識到，依賴美國是非常危險的事。

but in the end China had a record trade surplus hitting 1.2 trillion U.S.

但最終中國創下了 1.2 兆美元的貿易順差。

中國刻意試圖擺脫以美國為消費市場的依賴。

China deliberately tried to diversify away from the U.S. as a consumer base.

那麼川普的行動究竟是讓中國變強，還是讓它暴露在更多無法控制的風險中？

So do Trump's actions strengthen China, or expose it to more risk it cannot control?

美中關係是世界上最重要的雙邊關係，

The U.S.-China relationship is the most important bilateral relationship in the world,

And it's in the hands of two very different leaders.

而這一切掌握在兩位截然不同的領導人手中。

It's hard to imagine two people with more different approaches to leadership.

很難想像會有哪兩個人在領導風格上差異這麼大。

Xi Jinping is guarded, methodical, someone who plays the long game, not the Twitter game.

習近平則謹慎、有條理，是個玩長遠佈局的人，而不是玩推特的人。

China's policymakers see Trump as someone who's transactional and pragmatic, who likes to make deals.

中國的決策者認為川普是個講求交易、務實，喜歡做交易的人。

They also realize that Trump is very unpredictable.

他們也意識到川普非常難以預測。

What the markets have realized is that he doesn't execute all of those threats.

市場發現的是，他並沒有真的執行那些威脅。

A lot of them are just quietly forgotten.

很多威脅就這樣悄悄地被遺忘了。

And the internet, as usual, has found a name for it.

而網路，一如往常，為這種情況取了個名字。

The term is actually pretty popular on Chinese social media, too.

這個詞在中國的社群媒體上其實也很流行。

On Chinese social media, people love Donald Trump.

在中國的社群媒體上，大家都很喜歡唐納·川普。

Another really popular nickname for Trump is 川建国, which actually means Trump the nation builder.

另一個川普很紅的綽號是「川建國」，意思其實是川普建國。

That's not praising Trump as a nation builder for the United States.

這不是在稱讚川普是美國的建國者。

It's more like Trump helping China to become a superpower.

比較像是川普幫助中國成為超級大國。

We're seeing Xi is basically just sitting back to enjoy the benefits as a flurry of Western leaders coming to Beijing.

我們看到習近平基本上就是坐享其成，因為西方領導人紛紛來到北京。

馬克·卡尼在北京會見了習近平。

It's vital that we build a more sophisticated relationship.

They know that China, like all nation-states, will act in its own self-interest.

他們知道中國和所有國家一樣，都會以自身利益為重。

What they are seeking and signaling is a hedge against the United States, which they now view as an unreliable partner.

他們尋求並傳達的是一種對美國的對沖，因為他們現在認為美國是個不可靠的夥伴。

中國也是從慘痛的教訓中學到這一點的。

China was really caught off guard by Trump's first trade war because it was launched just months after his first visit to China, where he received a lavish welcome.

川普發動第一次貿易戰時，中國確實措手不及，因為這場貿易戰在他首次訪問中國、受到盛情款待後僅幾個月就展開了。

So since then, it has been preparing itself.

所以從那時起，中國就一直在為自己做準備。

In China, there's a famous saying: "Learning is like sailing upstream; pause,

中國有句名言：「學如逆水行舟，不進則退。」而這種心態現在形塑了北京在第二次貿易戰中的策略。

and you're pushed back." And this mindset now shapes Beijing's strategy in the second trade war.

川普總統試圖給中國致命一擊。

President Trump tried to deal a knockout blow to China.

美國沒想到的是，中國會反擊。

What the U.S. wasn't expecting was that China would hit back.

中國則以 125% 的關稅反擊美國。

China retaliated on the U.S. with tariffs of 125%.

China has learned how to play this game, and President Trump knows that.

中國已經學會了怎麼玩這場遊戲，川普總統也知道這一點。

This latest headline coming in from the Supreme Court: global tariffs struck down.

最新的最高法院頭條新聞是：全球關稅被推翻了。

China says it is assessing President Trump's second tariff investigation this week as the U.S.

中國表示，本週正評估川普總統的第二次關稅調查，同時美國

continues its effort to rebuild the key trade policy.

則持續努力重建關鍵貿易政策。

這場跌宕起伏的過程已經產生了影響。

fell about 20%, but if you look at India, they jumped 12.8%.

下降了約 20%，但如果你看看印度，他們的出口卻躍升了 12.8%。

To Southeast Asian countries, they rose 13.5%.

對東南亞國家，則成長了 13.5%。

But trade flows are just one arm of China's strategy.

但貿易流動只是中國策略的一環。

Explicit export controls on rare earth magnets.

對稀土磁鐵實施了明確的出口管制。

稀土材料是唐納·川普的王牌。

China imposed export controls on seven types of rare earth minerals and magnets made of them.

中國對七種稀土礦物及其製成的磁鐵實施了出口管制。

These export controls are really inflicting pain on the U.S.

這些出口管制確實讓美國的製造業基礎感到痛苦，因為從 iPhone、電動車到戰鬥機和飛彈等高價武器，都用到了這些稀土磁鐵。

manufacturing base because these rare earth magnets are used in everything from iPhones and EVs to big-ticket weapons like fighter jets and missiles.

痛苦不僅限於美國製造商，因為全球的生產商都受到這些管制的影響。

The pain goes beyond U.S. manufacturers, since producers around the world are impacted by these controls.

而且，雖然這些措施可能會適得其反，讓各國尋找減少對中國依賴的方法，但這些努力都需要時間。

And although these measures could backfire as countries explore ways to lessen their reliance on China, those efforts will take time.

中國主導著供應鏈，開採了全球超過 60% 的稀土，並精煉了其中超過 90%。

China dominates the supply chain, mining over 60% of the world's rare earths and refining over 90% of them.

稀土本身並不是什麼大不了的事。

Rare earths by themselves are not big deals.

整個類別的市值甚至不到 100 億美元。

The entire category, the market cap, was not even 10 billion U.S. dollars.

整個類別，市值甚至不到 100 億美元。

As a result, other countries, they have pretty much given up on rare earth production and refinery process.

所以，其他國家基本上都放棄了稀土的生產和精煉過程。

Its labor cost is really low, and its environmental standards are pretty lax.

它的勞動力成本真的很低，而且環境標準相當寬鬆。

The rare earth industry has been considered strategic for decades.

稀土產業幾十年來一直被視為戰略產業。

China has the world's most complete industrial catalogs.

中國擁有世界上最完整的工業目錄。

But despite the trade wins against Trump, China has issues its industrial success can't fix.

但儘管在貿易上贏了川普，中國卻面臨著工業成功無法解決的問題。

Beijing set a GDP growth target of 4.5 to 5% for the year.

北京設定了今年 4.5% 到 5% 的 GDP 成長目標。

這是有史以來最低的，自 1991 年以來。

China's economy has a lot of really serious problems: local governments, businesses, real estate developers.

中國經濟面臨許多非常嚴重的問題：地方政府、企業、房地產開發商。

and they used those borrowed funds to build too much capacity, bridges to nowhere, steel mills producing more steel than anyone could ever need, ghost towns of empty property.

而且他們把借來的錢拿去蓋了太多產能，像是無用的橋樑、過剩的鋼鐵廠，還有鬼城般的空屋。

As a result of that overcapacity, China now has a deflation problem.

因為產能過剩，中國現在面臨通貨緊縮的問題。

For years, China's economic rise has been fueled by its booming exports and investment.

過去幾年，中國的經濟成長是靠著蓬勃發展的出口和投資來推動的。

But last year, we saw China's fixed asset investment decline for the first time on record.

但去年，我們看到中國的固定資產投資創紀錄以來首次下滑。

So it's really just the exports that keep the economy going.

所以現在真的只剩下出口在支撐經濟了。

Chinese workers are seeing their pay cuts or even getting fired and struggling to find jobs.

中國的勞工們薪水被砍，甚至被解僱，找工作也困難重重。

Some of them choose to go into the gig economy, which doesn't really provide a sense of job security.

有些人選擇進入零工經濟，但這並沒有真正提供安全感。

What a lot of countries realized was that China was actually exporting its deflation overseas.

很多國家發現，中國其實正在把通貨緊縮輸出到海外。

Whatever they couldn't dump to the United States, they were dumping to Southeast Asia, Latin America, or Europe.

他們賣不出去給美國的，就傾銷到東南亞、拉丁美洲或歐洲。

That complicates the relationships China is forging, even as more countries engage China to hedge against an unreliable U.S.

這讓中國正在建立的關係變得複雜，即使有更多國家與中國合作來對抗不可靠的美國。