Name: 2026年最新科技投資機會！含金量爆表！顛覆你的想像！方舟投資總裁Tom Staudt【邦妮聊區塊鏈】 (2026年所有新科技投資機會！含金量極高！徹底顛覆認知！方舟投資總裁 Tom Staudt【邦妮區塊鏈】)
Uploaded: 2026-03-22T09:47:59.000Z
Duration: 55 min

轉承詞

TSMC popped out on earnings, but that's because their earnings were very good.

雖然臺積電的財報表現亮眼，但這是因為他們的財報真的很好。

TSMC earning reports saw a 25% jump in profit on the boom.

臺積電的財報在這次的榮景中，獲利跳升了25%。

It doesn't matter if it's got anything to do with it.

That's not to say that there won't be losers.

This is a disruptive technology companies that have operated in industries for quite a while.

這些是 disruptive technology 公司，它們在產業中營運已久。

If they have not adjusted, they are at risk.

如果它們沒有跟著調整，它們就有風險。

We've seen our parents, let's not copy them.

我們看過我們的父母，我們就不要複製他們。

I'm a little biased because I love TSMC and I'm a long term hold.

我有點偏心，因為我超愛 TSMC，而且是 long term hold。

We think these are winner takes most opportunities.

我們認為這些是 winner takes most 的機會。

But some investors laugh when they hear this.

But obviously Elon Musk is putting forward long term plans for data centers in space powered by solar.

但很明顯，Elon Musk 正在為太空中的太陽能資料中心提出長期計畫。

The technology builds new industries, new services, new forms of entertainment.

這項技術創造了新的產業、新的服務、新的娛樂形式。

The new not working is going to mean something different than what not working today.

新的「不奏效」將會和現在的「不奏效」有不同的意義。

I look at all of those macro things and I think to myself that is a call option for disruptive innovation.

我看到所有這些總體經濟的東西，然後我會覺得那是 disruptive innovation 的選擇權。

In 2026 you're seeing the growing pains of Bitcoin become an instrument, a part of the overall global financial system.

到了 2026 年，你會看到比特幣成長的陣痛期，成為一個工具，成為整個全球金融體系的一部分。

這代表 AI、加密貨幣、總體經濟。

這可能會讓人覺得有點不知所措。

What are three main trends that you are paying attention to?

I'm super excited to talk to him because I read your report every single year.

我超興奮能跟他聊，因為我每年都會看你們的報告。

He's the president and CEO of Ark Invest.

他是 Ark Invest 的總裁兼執行長。

Can we start with TSMC because I'm from Taiwan.

我們可以先聊聊 TSMC 嗎？因為我來自臺灣。

TSMC earnings reports saw 25% jump in profit on the boom in January and it seems like the market is super optimistic.

TSMC 的財報在一月份的榮景帶動下，獲利跳漲了 25%，市場看起來非常樂觀。

However, we saw people, you know, were a little nervous about the drawdown.

不過，我們也看到大家，你知道的，對下跌有點緊張。

I think this is a healthy part of an industry that actually investors should feel confident about that it actually has credibility.

我覺得這是產業中很健康的一環，投資人應該對它有信心，因為它確實有公信力。

You know when something goes straight up and there's not really a reality check, that's actually a very unhealthy sign.

你知道的，當某樣東西一路飆升，卻沒有實際的檢驗，那其實是很不健康的跡象。

What it means is that this market is discerning, that it is starting to ask hard questions.

這意味著這個市場很有判斷力，開始提出嚴肅的問題。

That is looking for relative winners and losers and it's asking questions about valuations and whether they're justified.

它在尋找相對的贏家和輸家，並且質疑估值是否合理。

I think it's not just tsmc but it's also.

We saw news come out relative to people started asking questions about Oracle, whether there was double counting in their revenue.

我們看到有新聞出來，大家開始質疑 Oracle，質疑他們的營收是否有重複計算。

We saw questions in parts of the industry after Anthropic announced some releases as to Wall street and global financial markets asking who could be disrupted that we haven't thought about.

我們看到在 Anthropic 發布一些消息後，華爾街和全球金融市場開始質疑，哪些我們沒想到的領域可能會被顛覆。

你知道的，這些都是很健康的問題。

This is not the type of question and environment that you have in a bubble.

這不是保麗龍時期會出現的問題和環境。

在保麗龍時期，你只會說我們愛它。

其實跟這件事有沒有關聯都沒關係。

You know, you mentioned that TSMC popped on an earnings, but that's because the earnings were very good.

說到 TSMC 財報大漲，那是因為他們的財報表現非常亮眼。

That's because they demonstrated real tangible results, better than what the market expected.

那是因為他們展現了真實的、具體的成果，而且比市場預期的還要好。

And then there's been volatility and pullback as the space has had questions in terms of other parts of that ecosystem.

接著，由於這個領域在生態系的其他部分出現了一些質疑，所以出現了波動和回檔。

So I think, to be honest, if I were, what's my main takeaway from that?

所以說，老實說，如果是我，我的主要收穫是什麼？

My main takeaway from that is that the market is actually doing its job.

我的主要收穫是，市場其實有在做它該做的事。

That this is that they've learned lessons from the dot com where they didn't ask any questions, where earnings results were popped on metrics that were completely made up.

也就是說，他們從網路保麗龍時期學到了教訓，那時候大家都不問問題，財報數字都是隨便編造出來的。

Things like I pricing eyeballs or user growth.

像是定價、眼球數或是使用者成長。

I mean things that are not financial metrics and stocks would go up because of what they said on earnings, that just by being in the space and I do feel like investors should have some degree of confidence now.

我的意思是，那些不是財務指標，股價卻能因為財報數字上漲，光是待在這個領域，我就覺得投資人現在應該要有一定的信心。

There are parts of the market that are going to be naturally displaced.

市場上有些部分自然會被取代。

There's a creative destruction ship, a tyrion cycle going on here where companies that have have operated in industries for quite a while, if they have not adjusted, they are at risk.

這是一個創造性毀滅的循環，公司如果長期在某些產業經營，卻沒有跟上調整，就面臨風險。

I think salesforce.com you look at that stock and certainly they're trying to get into the AI space, but

我認為 salesforce.com 這檔股票，他們當然試圖進入 AI 領域，但是

there are a lot of concerns that AI is already ahead.

So you know, from an asset management standpoint, it's our job to ensure that we are in the beneficiaries, the enablers and the leaders, not in spaces that are going to be disrupted or vulnerable.

所以，從資產管理的角度來看，我們的職責是確保我們站在受益者、賦能者和領導者的位置，而不是處在會被取代或脆弱的領域。

Obviously we have to pay attention to valuations as well.

But the leaders are demonstrating strong results.

不過，領導者們正展現強勁的成果。

We also think that the adoption rates, the penetration rates still have a long way to go.

我們也認為，採用率、滲透率還有很長的路要走。

They're rapid, they're much faster than what the Internet was.

這些速度很快，比網際網路快多了。

But we're also, we're back where maybe 1995 was from Internet adoption, not 1999.

不過，我們也回到了網際網路剛開始普及的 1995 年，而不是 1999 年。

Well, we're looking at the penetration rates both from the user standpoint as well as enterprise.

嗯，我們從使用者和企業的角度，都在觀察滲透率。

And when you look at some of these numbers, what's nice about it is it's pretty easy to define the benefits that companies can have from their monthly subscriptions to something like chat CBT.

當你看到這些數字時，很棒的一點是，很容易就能定義出企業從每月訂閱像 chat CBT 這樣的服務中獲得的好處。

And we keep track of the ability of AI to perform a task that takes a human roughly 30 minutes on average.

我們會持續追蹤 AI 完成一項任務的能力，這項任務大約需要人類花費 30 分鐘。

When you start to look at the success rate and the lack of error rate and things you can apply that to and you cost out what that is, you can almost pay for your company can pay almost pay for a seat for of open AI in about one day's work.

當你開始看成功率、錯誤率的降低，以及你可以應用這些的項目，然後去計算成本時，你會發現公司幾乎可以用一天的工作量來支付一個 OpenAI 座位。

You know, I'm a little biased because I love TSMC and I'm a long term holder.

你知道，我有點偏心，因為我愛 TSMC，而且我是 long term holder。

But you know there are companies are doubling their spending.

但你知道，有些公司正在加倍他們的支出。

Certainly you know, last year when their news about this people are like, oh great, you know, you guys are investing more, but

當然，你知道，去年當有這方面的消息時，大家都會說，哦太好了，你們正在投入更多，但是

this is a natural technology cycle in that some of the spending is pulled forward and it's companies who know that they need to invest, they know they need to embrace new technologies.

這是一個很自然的技術週期，有些支出會被提前，而這些公司知道他們需要投資，他們知道他們需要擁抱新技術。

But sometimes that gets from a company standpoint, sometimes that gets ahead of itself in that the company's not ready itself to incorporate and to adopt and to implement some of the technology.

但從公司的角度來看，有時候這會超前，因為公司本身還沒有準備好去整合、採納和實施某些技術。

then you see some noise in the data relative to that span, relative to the integration.

你就會看到數據中出現一些關於那個時間段、關於整合的雜訊。

I think, you know, again this is pretty natural in terms of technology adoption.

我認為，你知道，這在技術採納方面是很自然的。

This is something that we've seen this before a number of times.

我們以前也遇過好幾次這種情況。

Sometimes the market, when it's so worried about certain valuations, you know, takes that first pullback as that the story was was false or that it was overblown or the valuations are wrong when in reality is it's a natural chasm from the early adoption.

有時候市場，當它非常擔心某些估值時，你知道，會把第一次回檔當作是故事是假的，或是被誇大了，或是估值錯了，但實際上，這只是早期採納中的一個自然鴻溝。

If you think about an adoption curve, early adopters race out number growth rates look really impressive, but

如果你想像一下採納曲線，早期採用者衝出去，成長率看起來非常驚人，但是

The early adopters, either they make their spend and now they need to digest it, implement it, use it, or you have excited exuberance that gets a little ahead of itself, it drops off a little while they strategically start to now implement.

早期採用者，要嘛他們花完錢了，現在需要消化、實施、使用，要嘛就是興奮的狂熱有點超前了，稍微回落一點，因為他們開始策略性地實施。

If the market misinterprets that as the story is over, it can miss what the real market opportunity is, which is mainstream adoption of the curve.

如果市場誤解為故事結束了，它可能會錯過真正的市場機會，也就是曲線的主流採納。

Mainstream being dependent on what segment you're talking about.

主流，取決於你談論的是哪個細分市場。

Sometimes that's retail, sometimes it's enterprise, sometimes that's government defense.

有時候是散戶，有時候是企業，有時候是政府國防。

Just depends which one we're talking, which company and what specialty.

這就看我們在談論哪個市場、哪個公司、還有什麼專業領域了。

I think when you look at these curves and you Just take a step back.

我認為當你看看這些曲線，然後稍微退一步來看。

這些都是令人印象深刻的採用曲線。

And so you talked about spending a lot of money.

Yes, they are spending a lot of money, that's true.

是的，他們確實花了很多錢，這是真的。

But they're also, they've had no trouble raising that capital.

但他們也很輕鬆地籌集到了這些資金。

We're not in a liquidity, a tight liquidity situation.

我們並沒有處於流動性緊縮的狀況。