Name: 停止美國石油出口將是毀滅性的！Schork 這麼說 (A US Oil Export Ban Would Be Catastrophic, Schork Says)
Uploaded: 2026-03-21T21:39:29.000Z
Duration: 6 min 16 s

I want to get to your line in your research.

我想請教你研究中的一個重點。

Diplomacy won't Stephen, just build on that?

外交不會，Stephen，可以再多說一點嗎？

So the Brent market is now the benchmark for the seaborne trade in oil.

所以 Brent 原油市場現在是海運貿易的指標。

The conflict is pricing, the war is pricing the shortages that we are seeing.

衝突正在定價，戰爭正在定價我們看到的短缺。

The WTI market prices, optionality prices, optimism.

WTI 市場定價，選擇權定價，樂觀情緒。

It's a landlocked contract, it's a futures contract.

這是內陸合約，這是期貨合約。

And like every futures contract, it derives its value from a physical asset, the physical asset.

而就像所有期貨合約一樣，它的價值來自於實體資產，就是那個實體資產。

The different type of crude oil, Brent is a similar crude oil priced in Atlantic Basin barrels and it's the benchmark for the seaborne trade.

不同類型的原油，Brent 是一種類似的原油，在大西洋盆地計價，是海運貿易的指標。

So every time we see a dovish headline, the war might be ending or there's an off ramp, that optimism gets priced into the Brent, the WTI contract and that is the HOPE contract.

所以每次我們看到鴿派頭條，戰爭可能要結束了，或者有退出機制，那種樂觀情緒就會被定價到 Brent、WTI 合約裡，而那就是 HOPE 合約。

The Brent market is the real market that is pricing the real events going on.

Brent 市場才是真正定價正在發生的真實事件的市場。

And that blowout in the spread that we've seen over the past week, week and half tells you that this war is far from over because we are seeing a tremendous bid in Brent over that WTI contract.

而我們過去一週、一週半看到的價差飆升，告訴你這場戰爭遠未結束，因為我們看到 Brent 相對於 WTI 合約有巨大的買盤。

Stephen, I want to pick up on your point about what the WTI is pricing in about policy the US government could do.

Stephen，我想接續你關於 WTI 定價美國政府可能採取的政策的觀點。

So yesterday Secretary Wright tweeted that there is going to be no export ban.

所以昨天賴特部長發推文說，不會有出口禁令。

But then I had a bunch of calls from people saying no export ban for now.

但隨後我接到很多人打來的電話，說「暫時」沒有出口禁令。

Do you think there's something the US will keep in their back pocket in case prices continue to rise?

你覺得美國會不會留一手，以防油價繼續飆升？

An export pan would be catastrophic for US oil production because all it would do is pent up more supply here in the United States of oil we don't necessarily use, so we don't have a use for it.

出口禁令對美國的石油生產來說將是災難性的，因為它只會讓更多我們不一定使用的石油供應在這裡堆積，我們用不到。

So inventories are just build and as those inventories build, there's no place for new production to go.

這樣庫存就會不斷增加，而隨著庫存增加，新的產量就無處可去。

So ultimately it's a catastrophic move for production.

所以最終這對生產來說是個災難性的舉動。

And I think it appears that the White House got that message.

我認為白宮已經收到這個訊息了。

But you never know, it does make a nice head headline.

但你永遠不知道，這確實是個不錯的頭條新聞。

So we could potentially see it's a political tool, it's not an economic tool.

所以我們可能會看到，這是一個政治工具，而不是經濟工具。

And clearly with the way the Brent market has gone, we've gone from a five dollar premium Brent over WTI at the start of this week to now it's upwards of 13 to $14.

顯然，從本週初 Brent 相較於 WTI 有 5 美元的溢價，現在已經漲到 13 到 14 美元了。

So we've tripled that premium so clearly the market is skeptical that an export ban is not off of the table.

所以我們溢價翻了三倍，顯然市場懷疑出口禁令並非不可能。

Steven, do you even think Brent right now is pricing in really what is going on in the region?

Steven，你認為 Brent 目前有反映出該地區正在發生的事情嗎？

When you look at Oman futures, I think yesterday they blew past $170 a barrel.

如果你看看阿曼期貨，我認為昨天他們就飆升到每桶 170 美元以上了。

That's more tied to the physical barrels right now that are moving in the Gulf.

這跟目前海灣地區流動的實體原油更有關。

It's an excellent question and you know, I'm reluctant to say it's not because then I've been saying, oh, the market is wrong.

這是一個很棒的問題，而且你知道，我不太想說它不準確，因為這樣我就會說，哦，市場是錯的。

But to your point, we have a bifurcated market.

但就你所說的，我們有一個兩極化的市場。

So the Brent market is still an Atlantic Basin market.

所以 Brent 市場仍然是一個大西洋盆地的市場。

That's where it's derived from, to your point, that Oman and the Dubai futures contracts which are linked more towards the Asian markets, that is really reflective of the shortage.

這就源自於你提到的，阿曼和杜拜的期貨合約，它們更貼近亞洲市場，這確實反映了短缺的狀況。

So what the Brent Dubai or the Brent Oman Brent steep discount to those markets is telling you is that we're looking at an Atlantic Basin that is well supplied with oil.

所以 Brent 相較於杜拜或阿曼的 Brent 深度貼水，告訴你的是，我們看到大西洋盆地原油供應充足。

The problem is in Asia where all that oil still blockaded up in the Strait of Hormuz.

問題出在亞洲，那裡的石油都還被堵在荷姆茲海峽。

Those are so your refineries from India over to Japan up to South Korea are bidding for that oil and hence why we're getting such a huge disconnect between the two markets.

所以從印度到日本、韓國的煉油廠都在搶購這些原油，這也是為什麼兩個市場之間會有如此巨大的價差。

So the answer your question, Brent, Brent is certainly disconnected.

所以回答你的問題，Brent，Brent 確實是脫節了。

It's more connected, as we've said, relative to wti.

正如我們所說，它與 WTI 的關聯性更高。

But actually where the shortages were, the physical shortages represented in the Oman and Dubai markets, clearly, again, that is another telltale that this war is far from being resolved in any sort of positive manner.

但實際上，短缺所在之處，也就是阿曼和杜拜市場所代表的實體短缺，再次清楚地表明這場戰爭遠未以任何積極的方式得到解決。

Stephen, that's the reality for Asian importers, buyers off that crude oil of that physical asset.

Stephen，這就是亞洲進口商、購買那些原油、那些實體資產的買家的現實。

Do you think this market's taking too much comfort from the futures curve?

你認為這個市場對期貨曲線過於放心了嗎？

It's really interesting and where we're really seeing the blowout and to answer your question, I think the market is rather relaxed is if we look at the Brent Dumai market, for instance, if we believe in market theory or in that curve, then we're looking at Brent trading at a 30$40 discount to Dubai, 60$70 discount to Oman.

這真的很有趣，而且我們真正看到飆升的地方，以及回答你的問題，我認為市場相當放鬆，如果我們以 Brent 杜拜市場為例，如果我們相信市場理論或那條曲線，那麼我們看到 Brent 相較於杜拜折價 30-40 美元，相較於阿曼折價 60-70 美元。

So the question is when does or does the market catch up so that we'll take the Dubai market.

所以問題是，市場何時會追上，讓我們來看看杜拜市場。

Right now we're trading at about a $35 discount right below Dubai.

目前我們交易價約為貼水 35 美元，就在杜拜之下。

But we go two months out the Brent premium and we said Brent normally trades out premium to Dubai is now Trading at a life of contract high of nearly $8 a barrel.

但我們來看兩個月後的 Brent 溢價，我們說 Brent 通常會溢價於杜拜，現在卻交易在合約歷史新高的近每桶 8 美元。

So what the market, at least what the curve is telling us is that there's a real problem.

所以市場，至少是曲線告訴我們，存在一個真正的問題。

Those are stranded bought barrels in the Strait of Hormuz, they're not going out.

那些滯留在荷姆茲海峽的已購原油，無法運出。

Therefore Dubai trades at a massive premium to Brent.

是以杜拜相較於 Brent 交易價差極大。

But going out two months, that premium reverses now to a significant discount.

但到了兩個月後，這個價差卻反轉為顯著的折價。

So the market, if you believe in terms structure in the forward curve of pricing theory is telling us, yeah, we've got a real problem in the spot market.

所以市場，如果你相信定價理論中遠期曲線的結構，它告訴我們，沒錯，現貨市場確實有個真正的問題。

By the time we roll into summer there's going to be some sort of exit in this war.

當我們進入夏季時，這場戰爭將會出現某種退出機制。

We're not seeing it in the product markets, for instance.

例如，我們在產品市場上並未看到這種情況。

So another question now is the diesel market, the crack spread.

所以另一個問題是機油市場，也就是裂解價差。

The margin between diesel prices and oil prices in the Gulf coast is almost $70 a barrel.

墨西哥灣沿岸機油價格與原油價格之間的價差高達近 70 美元一桶。

So that's one or two things are going to happen.

所以接下來會發生一到兩件事。

Oil WTI is going to have to catch catch up to where product prices are or product prices are going to crash because of demand destruction.

WTI 原油必須追上產品價格的水準，或者產品價格會因為需求破壞而崩跌。

And now we're talking about significant economic contraction.

而現在我們談論的是顯著的經濟萎縮。

So but the here and the now is that the spread is telling us significant shortage in the spot market month, but

所以，眼下是價差告訴我們現貨市場月份有顯著短缺，但是

We should start to see some sort of resolution.

我們應該會開始看到某種程度的解決。

At least that's how the market, that's what the forward curve is suggesting to the globe.

至少市場是這樣，遠期曲線是這樣向全球暗示的。

Thank you, Sir Stephen Schalk of the Short Group on energy on the price of crude and crude production.

感謝 Short Group 的 Stephen Schalk 先生，他對能源、原油價格和原油產量有深入的見解。