Name: 退役將軍解析伊朗戰爭策略！第三週戰況如何？ (Retired generals break down Iran war strategy after week 3)
Uploaded: 2026-03-21T16:39:24.000Z
Duration: 26 min 18 s

He has been talking about Carg island by name, Donald Trump, since 1988.

他從1988年就開始點名談論Carg island，Donald Trump。

So when he says now he could take Carg island anytime we want, what would it look like to take it?

所以當他現在說他隨時可以拿下Carg island時，那會是什麼樣子呢？

Let me get this thing to cooperate with me.

Carg island is really very, very close to the shoreline, but

Carg island離shoreline真的很近，但是

it is the main terminal for all oil exports coming out of Iran.

它是所有從伊朗出來的oil exports的主要終端。

About 20% for the world comes through the straits.

大約有20%的世界貿易會經過這些海峽。

The challenge with this mission is that coming ashore here, even though it's probably not contested right now because the military capacity has been reduced, but

這個任務的挑戰在於，雖然這裡現在可能沒有被爭奪，因為軍事能力已經被削減了，但

And as an intel guy, I would want to know what has Iran done in the interim between the reduction of that military capability a number of days ago and where we are today.

而作為一個情報人員，我會想知道伊朗在軍事能力被削減幾天到我們現在這個時間點之間，到底做了些什麼。

So there's always challenge associated with coming ashore.

And, and you've got this terminal that is going to be used.

而且，而且你還有這個終端要使用。

I think primarily that's all about leverage more than it is bringing in a capacity to get that thing up and running.

我認為這主要是關於籌碼，而不是要引進能力來啟動它。

I mean, would require obviously significant boots on the ground to take that and hold it in the sense of you don't know what could be coming in coming, especially because it's so close to.

我的意思是，這顯然需要大量的人力來佔領並守住它，因為你不知道會有什麼東西進來，特別是它離這裡這麼近。

You know, you and I talked about securing the Strait of Hormuz quite a bit because you were talking about the very mountainous terrain which would give Iran the.

你知道，你和我談了很多關於鞏固荷莫茲海峽的事，因為你當時在談論那裡非常崎嶇的地形，這會讓伊朗。

that's not the side where the fire would be coming from the, on the Iranian side.

那不是會有火從伊朗那邊打過來的方向。

How would ground troops be used in the strait?

陸軍部隊要怎麼在海峽裡運用？

So what you have en route is an amphibious ready group, Marine Expeditionary Unit.

所以你們路上會有一個兩棲準備群，海軍陸戰隊遠徵部隊。

And what that means is this is an incredibly capable force that can get itself, can force itself on shore.

這代表這是一支能力超強的部隊，可以自行登陸。

And it's comprised of elements like this.

Grabbing this artillery piece, which is an M777, this is what we call the beginning of an artillery raid.

搭載這門榴彈砲，也就是 M777，這就是我們說的砲擊突襲的開始。

You take this thing off a ship, you land it where you want it to go.

你把它從船上運下來，降落在你想去的地方。

Then you've got counter fire capability within minutes.

Also within that capability, these things called Amtraks, incredibly capable.

這種能力裡，還有這些叫做 Amtraks 的東西，能力超強。

They swim, as you can see, and inside this is about 20 plus plus Marines.

他們會游泳，如你所見，裡面大約有 20 多名陸戰隊員。

They will disembark to begin their missions.

What also they have obviously is vertical lift gunships.

他們顯然還有垂直起降的砲艇。

The Cobras incredibly dependable and also the Osprey, again, vertical lift.

Cobras 無比可靠，還有 Osprey，同樣是垂直起降。

You can come off the deck of a ship, you can land anywhere, and

你可以從船甲板上起飛，可以降落在任何地方，然後

then you disembark about 30 to 40 Marines.

你就會卸下約 30 到 40 名陸戰隊員。

Although obviously, when you meet with resistance, there is a risk of real loss of life.

雖然顯然，當你遇到抵抗時，會有生命損失的風險。

And also, how do you get offshore once you get on?

還有，一旦你登陸了，要怎麼離岸？

As you mentioned a moment ago in our conversation now today, Netanyahu says Iran no longer has the ability to enrich uranium, which is obviously significant.

就像你剛剛跟我們聊到，內唐亞胡說伊朗已經沒有能力濃縮鈾了，這當然很重要。

Trump had said the program was eliminated last summer.

川普說這個計畫去年夏天就被取消了。

So it's unclear what those terms at this point really mean.

所以目前這些說法到底是什麼意思，還不清楚。

However, there are three main nuclear sites, and

不過，有三個主要的核子設施，

I say Maine for a reason, because we only know what we know in terms of where, say, enriched uranium could be stored.

我說「主要」是有原因的，因為我們只知道我們知道的，像是濃縮鈾可能存放在哪裡。

if we understand it's in those canisters, it could be a lot of different places.

如果我們知道它在那些罐子裡，那可能有很多不同的地方。

And that would change the whole calculus for boots on the ground, wouldn't it?

這會改變地面部隊的整個計算方式，不是嗎？

First of all, look at the distance that we're talking of.

如果我們在這裡有部隊，或者我們。

Or if the US Came ashore here and you were going to try to put forces there, now, you certainly wouldn't have to drive up there.

或者如果美國在這裡登陸，而你打算在那裡部署部隊，那麼，你當然不必開車上去。

I mean, you could have some aviation, airborne operation that dropped them in.

我的意思是，你可以進行一些航空、空降行動，將他們投送下去。

But the challenge is these are monstrous facilities.

但挑戰在於這些是巨大的設施。

And to your very point, the enriched uranium isn't necessarily here.

而且正如你所說，濃縮鈾不一定在這裡。

It could be dispersed into military compounds, into somebody's backyard, into a garage, under underground facilities which are all along the mountains here.

它可能分散在軍事營區、別人的後院、車庫，或是這裡沿著山脈的地下設施裡。

So if you get there, and let me show you the significance of this, this is natanz.

所以如果你到了那裡，讓我向你展示這點的重要性，這是納坦茲。

Marines would have to guard intersections.

海軍陸戰隊必須守衛各個交叉路口。

They'd have to go into each one of these buildings.

他們必須進入這些建築物裡的每一間。

And then once they get in a building, they don't know what they're looking at.

然後一旦他們進到一棟建築裡，他們也不知道自己在看什麼。

And then there's the other ones who's going to come in and say, yep, that's radioactive, or, no, that's inert.

然後還有另一種人，他們會進來判斷說，嗯，這個有輻射，或者，嗯，這個是惰性的。

And that takes other experts to have to be a part of this endeavor.

這需要其他專家來參與這項任務。

We did this in Iraq, the Sensitive Site Exploitation mission.

我們在伊拉克執行過這個任務，就是敏感地點利用任務。

我們在伊拉克初期的時候就做過。

And every time we got one, we put experts in there to determine.

每次我們找到一個，我們就會派專家進去判斷。

Painstaking and excruciatingly time consuming and detailed.

非常費時費力，而且細節繁複。

When we talk about this mission to keep the Straits open or to reopen them, they're not open right now.

當我們談到這次維持海峽暢通或重新開放海峽的任務時，海峽目前並沒有暢通。

One of the things that Dan Kaine, the chair of the Joint Chiefs, the General told us the other day was that they are introducing now two new weapons here.

參聯會主席丹·凱恩將軍前幾天告訴我們，他們現在正在引入兩款新武器。

The A10 Warthog, this close infantry, close support fighter jet, is now flying missions over the strait as well as Apache helicopters.

A10 疣豬攻擊機，這款近距離步兵支援戰鬥機，現在也正在海峽上空執行任務，還有阿帕契直升機。

What is the introduction of these two aircraft?

Well, this significantly increases our ability to attack small targets.

嗯，這大大增加了我們攻擊小型目標的能力。

So they're probably going after the thousands of small speedboats that the Iranians have on the coastline.

所以他們可能會針對伊朗在 shoreline 上的數千艘小型快艇下手。

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退役將軍解析伊朗戰爭策略！第三週戰況如何？ (Retired generals break down Iran war strategy after week 3)

incredibly

significant

eliminate

effort