Name: 德國的未來在哪裡？關鍵區域選舉帶來的啟示 | DW 新聞 (Where is Germany headed? Lessons from a key regional election | DW News)
Uploaded: 2026-03-12T23:09:31.000Z
Duration: 11 min 11 s

基礎被動語態

They're celebrating victory, yet their candidate was not expected to win.

他們在慶祝勝利，但他們的候選人原本並不被看好會贏。

情態副詞

Jem Oezdemir, the green front runner in the German state of Baden Wurtenberg, was hopelessly behind in the polls.

德國州巴登-符騰堡的綠黨領跑者 Jem Oezdemir，在民意調查中遙遙落後。

These surveys starting in October 2025 show how the Greens ended up overtaking the center right CDU at the last moment.

這些從 2025 年 10 月開始的民調顯示，綠黨是如何在最後一刻超越中間偏右的 CDU 的。

And who should be worried about the ramifications of that victory?

誰應該擔心這場勝利的後果呢？

Specifically here, where I am at the moment in Berlin, the German capital.

具體來說，在我此刻所在的德國首都柏林。

But before we talk about those ramifications, let me explain why the official results are so unusual.

但在我們談論這些後果之前，讓我解釋一下為什麼官方結果如此不尋常。

Above you have the winning party, the Greens.

Imagine, despite being the ruling party in the state, they were polling at only 17% a few months back in November.

想像一下，儘管他們是該州的執政黨，幾個月前的 11 月，他們的民調只有 17%。

Below that you have the cdu, also the party of Germany's Chancellor Friedrich Merz.

在他們下面是 cdu，也就是德國總理 Friedrich Merz 的政黨。

They made actual gains compared to the last election, but

與上次選舉相比，他們實際獲得了進展，但

basically lost a 14% advantage according to some polls.

根據一些民意調查，基本上損失了 14% 的優勢。

Of course, there's also the far right afd.

They made significant inroads and doubled their results from the last elections.

他們取得了顯著進展，並使上次選舉的結果翻倍。

很明顯他們在這裡會長久發展。

And then you have the left of center social democrats, the SPD, and

然後是中間偏左的社會民主黨，也就是 SPD，

You need 5% to make it into a German parliament.

And the Social Democrats only made it by a hair.

而社會民主黨僅僅以些微差距驚險過關。

They that's something that 10 years ago would have been unthinkable.

這件事，十年前是無法想像的。

First, let's take a look what this means for the current German government, which is a coalition between the center right Christian Democrats, the CDU and the Social Democrats, the SPD especially.

首先，我們來看看這對目前德國政府意味著什麼，這個政府是由中間偏右的 CDU 和社會民主黨 SPD 組成的聯合政府，特別是 SPD。

The result of the SBD could be a real problem going forward.

SPD 的這個結果，未來可能會是個大麻煩。

On the day after the election, officials from the SPD gathered in Berlin.

選後的隔天，SPD 的官員們齊聚在柏林。

對我們來說，這是個非常苦澀的結果。

The discussion in the morning was difficult as well.

It is absolutely clear that this saddens us greatly.

Many Social Democrats in Europe have their traditional core constituents no longer vote for them.

歐洲許多社會民主黨的傳統核心選民已經不再投票給他們了。

I sat down and had a conversation with Lukas Rudolph.

我坐下來跟 Lukas Rudolph 聊了一下。

My question to him, why won't workers and middle class employees vote for their traditional go to party anymore?

我問他，為什麼工人和中產階級的員工不再投票給他們傳統上會支持的政黨了？

Well, they have been captured, I guess, so to say at least in part or in relevant parts by the fringes of the electoral system.

嗯，我想他們被邊緣化了，至少在部分或相關的部分被選舉體系的邊緣力量給影響了。

So on the one hand side, the IFT predominantly, I guess, but then also the left in parts.

所以一方面，主要是 IFT，我想，但另一方面，左翼在某些地方也是。

And I guess this does not only affect the SBD's voter base among the working class, but

我想這不僅影響了 SPD 在工人階級中的選民基礎，

我覺得他們現在拿到了 5.5% 的選票。

所以這真的是一個災難性的結果。

Speaking from the perspective of the sbd, of course.

Here are the results of the SBD in all federal elections since 2002.

這是 SPD 自 2002 年以來所有聯邦選舉的結果。

And here are the numbers for the state of Baden Wurtenberg.

這是巴登-符騰堡州（Baden Wurtenberg）的數字。

It's basically only going in one direction, down.

基本上只有一個方向，就是向下。

The decline of the SPD coincides with the rise of another party, the far right afd.

SPD 的衰落與另一個政黨的崛起同時發生，那就是極右翼的 AfD。

The AFD is the only conservative force that managed, despite this polarization between the CDU and the Greens, to achieve a truly significant result.

AfD 是唯一一個在中間偏右的 CDU 和綠黨兩極分化之下，還能取得真正顯著成績的保守派力量。

I ran the numbers for the AFD on the past elections.

我查了一下 AfD 在過去幾次選舉的數據。

Remember, the party hasn't been around a long time yet.

記住，這個政黨成立的時間還不長。

Both in federal elections and state elections in Baden Wurtenberg, the AFD is going up significantly.

無論是在聯邦選舉還是在巴登-符騰堡州的州選舉，AfD 的得票都在顯著上升。

這堂課告訴我們，這個政黨會一直存在下去。

All across Germany, the success of the AFD has obviously become a huge factor in German politics, with its focus on migration, on nation and on identity.

在德國各地，AfD 的成功顯然已經成為德國政壇的一大關鍵因素，他們著重於移民、國家認同和身份認同。

And it's forced political parties to work together that probably would have avoided working together in the past, like the SPD and the cdu.

這也迫使過去可能避免合作的政黨，像是 SPD 和 CDU，現在必須攜手合作。

The SPD bosses, Lars Klingbeil and Berbel Bass know that their party needs to build a clearer case of why people should vote for them.

SPD 的領導人 Lars Klingbeil 和 Saskia Esken 知道，他們的政黨需要更清楚地說明為什麼大家應該支持他們。

But that's hard to do if you're stuck in a coalition with the center right cdu.

但如果跟中間偏右的 CDU 合作，這就很難做到。

I guess the SPD has really a hard time sharpening its profile.

我想 SPD 在確立自己的立場上真的有困難。

They have been in government, with one exception, for now, in federal government for now over 26 years.

除了例外情況，他們在聯邦政府已經執政超過 26 年了。

And that means finding compromise on all sorts of things and being made responsible for for economic difficulties in Germany and so on and so forth.

這意味著必須在各種事情上妥協，並且要為德國的經濟困難等事情負責。

That begs the question, what happens when the SPD decides to sharpen its profile while still governing with the cdu?

這就引發了一個問題：當 SPD 決定在仍與 CDU 執政的同時確立自己的立場時，會發生什麼事？

Of course they are in government, but then they also have to prove themselves in government.

當然，他們在執政，但同時也必須在執政中證明自己。

And what you usually have to do then is sharpen your profile against your coalition partner.

而這通常需要做的事情，就是跟執政夥伴區隔開來，確立自己的立場。

And that will make it super difficult for the current federal federal level government to find compromise on major reforms that are needed right now in the country.

這將會讓目前聯邦政府在尋求國家當前所需的重大改革上，變得非常困難。

Those reforms have a lot to do with the economic and financial situation of the country.

這些改革跟國家的經濟和財政狀況有很大的關係。

Germany's industrial sector is in decline.

And guess which region is especially hard hit?

Baden Wittenberg with Mercedes, Porsche and Bosch.

巴登-符騰堡，有 Mercedes、Porsche 和 Bosch。

So the car manufacturers and everything that's connected to them.

所以汽車製造商以及所有相關產業。

The polls show that the economy was the number one topic for voters in the state elections despite the wars, despite the high profile of migration, as the saying goes, it's still the economy, stupid.

民意調查顯示，儘管有戰爭、儘管移民議題備受關注，經濟仍是選民在州選舉中的頭號話題，就像俗話說的，「笨蛋，問題還是經濟」。

A message that's also heard loud and clear in the German capital.

這個訊息在德國首都也聽得清清楚楚。

And that brings us back to Jem Mercedemir, the winning candidate in Baden Wurtenberg of the Greens, a party that regularly ends up on the lower side of the polls for its economic competence.

這又把我們拉回 Jem Oezdemir，巴登-符騰堡綠黨的當選候選人，而綠黨在民意調查中，經濟能力經常墊底。

A majority of voters in Baden Wurtenberg also find the Greens in Berlin.

巴登-符騰堡的大多數選民也在柏林看到了綠黨。

Here you see their party bosses overbearing and too focused on protecting the climate.

在這裡，你看到他們的黨內高層跋扈，太過專注於保護氣候。

So why do a lot of people in his state still trust Ozdemir to solve their problems?

那麼，為什麼他州有這麼多人仍然相信 Ozdemir 能解決他們的問題？

We have raised many expectations among the people of Baden Wurttemberg that the focus should be on the welfare of the state, not party interests.

我們已經讓巴登-符騰堡的民眾抱持很大的期望，認為應該關注州內的福祉，而不是黨派的利益。

這就是我想要領導這個州的方式。

So there's a clear distancing from the party in Berlin, and

所以，這明顯與柏林的黨中央劃清界線，

with that, a strong focus on the man himself.

並且，強烈聚焦在他本人身上。

As one of the best known politicians in the state, even the country.

作為該州，甚至全國最知名的政治人物之一。

As the son of Turkish immigrants, he's repeatedly been the first to hold a certain political office with this particular background.

作為土耳其移民的兒子，他多次以這樣的背景成為第一位擔任特定政治職位的人。

That would also be true if the regional parliament elects him as state premier.

如果地區議會選他為州長，這也會是真的。

My colleague Michaela Kufner talked to him about that after the election.

我的同事 Michaela Kufner 在選舉後採訪了他。

So I see this also as an obligation to help every child to develop its full potential.

所以我也認為這是一種義務，要幫助每個孩子發揮他們的全部潛力。

So to prove that everybody can become whatever he or she wants to become.

所以要證明每個人都可以成為他們想成為的任何人。

Despite his roots, he's a kid from Baden Wurtenberg, born and bred there.

儘管有他的出身背景，他卻是道地的巴登-符騰堡之子，在這裡出生長大。

Many people in the region see him as one of their own.

該地區的許多人都把他視為自己人。

In polls, his popularity ranked far higher than those of his opponents.

在民意調查中，他的受歡迎程度遠高於他的對手。

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德國的未來在哪裡？關鍵區域選舉帶來的啟示 | DW 新聞 (Where is Germany headed? Lessons from a key regional election | DW News)

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