Name: 重磅消息！聯準會將重塑股市！ (It’s Official: The Fed Will Reset The Stock Market)
Uploaded: 2026-03-12T18:02:20.000Z
Duration: 9 min 43 s

轉承詞

If you have been waiting for lower interest rates, then I have really good news for you, because lower rates are coming.

如果你一直在等利率降低，那我有個超棒的消息要告訴你，因為利率要降低了。

Take a look at what the chairman of the Fed said.

程度副詞

What we're waiting for to reduce rates is, is to understand what will happen with, with really the tariff inflation.

我們在等什麼來降低利率呢？就是想知道，關於關稅通膨到底會發生什麼事。

And there's a lot of uncertainty about that.

Every forecaster you can name, who you know, who is a professional, you know, forecaster with, with adequate resources and forecasts for a living, is forecasting, you know, pretty significant.

你可以說出任何一位專業預測者，他們有足夠的資源，靠預測維生，都在預測，你知道的，相當顯著的。

Everyone that I know is forecasting a meaningful increase in inflation in coming months from tariffs because someone has to pay for the tariffs.

我認識的每個人都預測，未來幾個月關稅會導致通膨顯著增加，因為總得有人為關稅買單。

And it will be someone in that chain that I mentioned.

而且會是鏈條中的某個人，就像我提到的。

When Donald Trump has introduced the tariffs, it was clear that somebody sooner or later has to pay these tariffs, since it's an additional tax.

唐納·川普推出關稅時，就很清楚遲早得有人支付這些關稅，因為這是一種額外稅收。

And the Federal Reserve has actually been on a path to lower down interest rates.

美國聯邦準備理事會其實已經在降低利率的道路上了。

If you go back to 2024, when interest rates have been between 5.25% to 5.5% during the entire 2024, the Fed has actually substantially lowered interest rates to 4.3%.

如果你回顧2024年，當時利率在整個2024年都介於5.25%到5.5%之間，聯準會其實已經大幅降低利率到4.3%。

However, this is when Donald Trump introduces the tariffs.

但這時候唐納·川普就推出了關稅。

And this is when the Fed says to the public, listen, we don't know how much of an impact these tariffs are going to have on interest rates.

這時候聯準會就跟大眾說，聽著，我們不知道這些關稅會對利率造成多大的影響。

And the main job of the Federal Reserve is to have stakeholders stable prices and maximum employment.

美國聯邦準備理事會的主要工作是讓利益相關者有穩定的物價和最大化就業。

And you cannot possibly have maximum employment if prices are not under control because the dollar is the global reserve currency.

如果物價沒有受到控制，你根本不可能實現最大化就業，因為美元是全球儲備貨幣。

If prices are substantially rising really fast, then employers cannot possibly manage their businesses because they don't know how to price their goods and services.

如果物價快速上漲，那麼僱主就無法管理他們的業務，因為他們不知道該如何為他們的商品和服務定價。

Which is why, even though that maximum employment is important, it is impossible to achieve that goal if you don't have stable prices.

這就是為什麼，即使最大化就業很重要，但如果你沒有穩定的物價，這個目標就不可能實現。

And that's why interest rates throughout 2025, or I would say until the end of 2025, has been very stable.

這就是為什麼2025年全年，或者我會說直到2025年底，利率一直非常穩定。

And this is the point where the US Economy illustrated that it is resilient.

這時候美國經濟就展現出它的韌性。

That's when the Fed, after Donald Trump has pressured the chairman of the Fed, he has lowered interest rates since then from 4.33% to as low as 3.6%.

這時候，在唐納·川普向聯準會主席施壓後，聯準會就從4.33%降低了利率，最低降到3.6%。

And in the last meeting of the Fed, the chairman of the Fed made it clear that we don't know for a fact how much more prices are going to rise.

而聯準會上次會議上，聯準會主席明確表示，我們無法確切知道物價還會漲多少。

But now we have the decision of the Supreme Court that says that these tariffs are unconstitutional.

但現在最高法院做出裁決，認為這些關稅違憲。

So the chairman of the Fed has no excuse right now but to lower down interest rates.

所以聯準會主席現在沒有藉口不降低利率了。

Because if you look at the Inflation data, inflation actually isn't getting out of control substantially.

因為如果你看看通膨數據，通膨實際上並沒有失控到哪裡去。

The year was ended with 2.7% inflation rate and in January of 2026 inflation was as low as 2.4%.

那一年以2.7%的通膨率結束，而在2026年1月，通膨率低至2.4%。

And now because most of these tariffs are going to be canceled, you can expect that prices are not going to substantially rise.

現在因為大部分關稅都要取消了，你可以預期物價不會大幅上漲。

And there is a real possibility that the United States is going to end the year with inflation that is below 2.5%.

美國很有可能在年底時，通膨率低於2.5%。

And because if you look at the unemployment rate that has been slowly ris and the job of the Fed is to prevent any kind of recession, there is literally every reason at the disposal of the Fed right now to lower down interest rates.

而且如果你看看失業率一直在緩慢上升，而聯準會的職責就是防止任何衰退，聯準會現在有各種理由可以降低利率。

And the Fed has also made it clear that we are just waiting for clarification because the worst thing that you can possibly do is to lower down interest rates sooner than expected.

聯準會也說得很清楚，我們只是在等進一步的說明，因為你最糟糕的舉動就是比預期更早降息。

When people realize that prices will continue rising, they will start overspending.

當大家意識到物價會持續上漲時，就會開始過度消費。

That overspending ends up into a self fulfilling prophecy where prices continuously try to rise.

而這種過度消費最終會變成一種自我實現的預言，讓物價不斷試圖上漲。

And that's why one of the most important jobs of the Fed is to manage the expectations of the consumers and manage the expectations of investors.

這也是為什麼聯準會最重要的職責之一，就是要管理消費者的預期，以及管理投資者的預期。

Because the expectations of investors decide what are going to be the interest rates that the government of the United States is going to pay on the national debt.

因為投資者的預期，決定了美國政府在國債上需要支付多少利率。

Imagine for a moment let's say the 10 trillion dollar debt that is being held by foreign countries.

想像一下，假設有價值一兆美元的債務由外國持有。

If these foreign countries suddenly believe that inflation in the US will substantially rise more than 3% or 4%, they will start demanding higher yields.

如果這些外國突然認為美國的通膨將大幅上漲超過3%或4%，他們就會開始要求更高的收益率。

And that is the job of the Fed to manage those expectations through higher interest rates.

而這就是聯準會透過提高利率來管理這些預期的職責。

So it is fine to have higher interest rates for some time unless if we are going to get at the end of the day, lower inflation expectations.

所以，暫時提高利率是可以的，除非我們最終能降低通膨預期。

So the Fed is going to have a couple of meetings.

所以聯準會將會召開幾次會議。

The next one is coming in March and then April.

下一次會議在三月，然後是四月。

So probably either in March or April, I would say most likely in March we are going to have lower interest rates.

所以，我猜三月或四月，我會說最有可能是在三月，我們會看到利率降低。

And some people will make the argument that, well, instead of these tariffs, Donald Trump has imposed the 15% global tariff.

有些人會說，與其這樣，川普不如實施15%的全球關稅。

Now I don't think anybody is going to take this tariff seriously because these tariffs have expirational date.

我不認為有人會認真看待這些關稅，因為它們都有到期日。

And I think there are going to be a lot of exemptions on these tariffs, which is why prices, prices most likely are not going to rise.

我認為這些關稅會有許多豁免，這就是為什麼物價，物價很可能不會上漲。

And businesses right now have a clear strategy on how to act.

企業現在有明確的策略該如何行動。

They know which tariffs are going to stay and which tariffs are going to be removed.

他們知道哪些關稅會保留，哪些關稅會被取消。

The real question is will prices go down because Donald Trump has removed these tariffs.

真正的問題是，川普取消這些關稅後，物價會不會下降。

That is not happening because most of these businesses have incurred a lot of losses over the last year because these tariffs actually disrupted supply chains.

這不會發生，因為這些企業大部分在去年都蒙受了重大損失，因為這些關稅實際上擾亂了供應鏈。

And when you bring goods from outside and you have this long effective supply chain, the moment be actually disrupted, prices are going to rise.

當你從外面進口商品，而且有這麼長的供應鏈，一旦供應鏈被擾亂，物價就會上漲。

So many of these businesses, even though that they have raised their prices, have actually incurred a lot of losses, which is why they're not going to lower down their prices just because Donald Trump has actually removed these tariffs because they have to compensate for all the losses that they have made over the last year.

所以很多企業即使已經調高了價格，實際上還是虧損了很多，這就是為什麼川普取消這些關稅後，他們不會馬上降低價格，因為他們必須彌補過去一年的所有損失。

Now secondly, when you raise your prices, you're not going to bring these prices down.

再來，當你調高價格後，就不會再降回來了。

But here is a more important question is how will lower interest rates are going to impact the stock market?

但一個更重要的問題是，降低利率會如何影響股市？

If you look at all the stocks in the stock market, you can categorize them into two major categories.

如果你看看股市裡所有的股票，可以把它們抽成兩大類。

On one side you have value stocks, on the other side you have growth stocks.

一邊是價值股，另一邊是成長股。

Value stocks are the businesses that have already built their entire business.

價值股是那些已經建立了完整事業的企業。

It is an oil company that extracts oil and gas and they have spent the last 50 years building infrastructure all across the United States.

這是一家開採石油和天然氣的公司，他們花了過去 50 年在全美國建立基礎設施。

So if you pull out their balance sheet, you will see that these businesses are making a lot of money.

所以如果你去看他們的資產負債表，你會發現這些公司賺了很多錢。

But there are on the other side, companies that are actually working really hard.

但另一邊，有些公司其實非常努力地在經營。

They're investing a lot of money, but they're not making a lot of profits today.

他們投入了很多錢，但今天還沒賺到很多利潤。

They will make a lot of profits in the future.

OpenAI is spending hundreds of billions of dollars because they're hoping that AI is going to be profitable and these profits are going to come sometime in the now.

OpenAI 花了數千億美元，因為他們希望 AI 未來能帶來利潤，而這些利潤會在不久的將來實現。

The question you should be asking yourself is that how will lower interest rates are going to impact the future cash flow?

你應該問自己的問題是，降低利率會如何影響未來的現金流？

That money that this business is going to make in the future, what is going to be it is value today because remember, a dollar today worth more than a dollar tomorrow.

這家公司未來會賺到的錢，以今天的價值來看是多少？因為請記得，今天的 1 美元比明天的 1 美元更有價值。

So if I would ask you, let's say, would you actually take a million dollars today or a million dollars a year from now?

所以如果我問你，假設現在給你一百萬美元，或者一年後給你一百萬美元，你會選哪個？

Of course, a million dollars today worth a lot more than a million dollars a year from now.

當然，現在拿到一百萬美元，絕對比一年後拿到一百萬美元值錢得多。

Because that million from now, just because there is inflation is automatically going to worth a lot less now.

因為一年後的這一百萬，光是通膨就會讓它的價值自動縮水。

Secondly, that million dollars today could be easily invested in the US Treasuries and will generate up to 4% in interest rate.

第二，現在的這一百萬美元，可以輕鬆地投資美國國債，並產生高達 4% 的利率。

So automatically you can make the assumption that money today worth a lot more than money tomorrow.

所以你自然會認為，現在的錢比明天的錢更有價值。

When the Federal Reserve lowers down interest rates, the discounted rate and how you discount the future cash flow into present value is going to go down.

當美國聯邦準備理事會降低利率時，折現率以及你如何將未來現金流折算成現值，都會跟著下降。

So that future cash flow instantly becomes more valuable.

是以，未來的現金流瞬間變得更有價值。

Let's say There is an AI company that is called OpenAI and it's going to make $1 billion five years from now.

假設有一家 AI 公司叫做 OpenAI，它預計五年後能賺 10 億美元。

When interest rates are 4%, we discount that $1 billion to today's dollars and there is going to be a value.

當利率是 4% 的時候，我們會把這 10 億美元折算成今天的美元價值，就會有一個數字出現。

Now the Federal Reserve lowers down interest rates to 3% and we discount now that billion dollars to today's dollars.

現在聯準會將利率降到 3%，我們將這 10 億美元折算成今天的美元價值。

Suddenly that billion dollars worth a lot more than when interest rates are 4%.

突然間，這 10 億美元的價值比利率是 4% 時高出許多。

That is why the valuation of OpenAI instantly goes up.

這就是為什麼 OpenAI 的估值瞬間就提高了。

And that's why the moment the Federal Reserve lowers down interest rates, here's what happens to stocks.

這也是為什麼當聯準會降低利率時，股票會發生什麼事。

Growth stocks that are supposed to make a lot of money in the future.

那些預期未來能賺大錢的成長股。

While the value stocks who have already built their businesses and are making a lot of money, valuation slightly goes down.

而那些已經建立好事業、正在賺大錢的價值股，估值則稍微下降。

So when you know the dynamics of the market now, you know which stocks you should be focusing on and how lower interest rates that are coming in next couple of months are going to impact the markets.

所以當你瞭解了現在的市場動態，你就會知道該專注於哪些股票，以及未來幾個月即將到來的降息將如何影響市場。

And if you want a step by step strategy on how you can massively profit from the stock market when the Federal Reserve is going to lower down interest rates, then check out the first link in the description of this video.

如果你想知道在聯準會降息時，如何能大幅從股市獲利的步驟策略，請查看這個影片說明欄的第一個連結。