Name: 伊朗戰爭：史上最大石油危機！ (Iran War: The Biggest Oil Shock In History)
Uploaded: 2026-03-10T18:04:44.000Z
Duration: 11 min 50 s

形容詞最高級

This is the biggest oil shock the world has seen.

這是世界有史以來最大的油價衝擊。

過去簡單式

Oil prices shot from about $50 to as high as $120.

油價從大約50美元飆升到120美元。

That's because the United States launched a complete war over Iran.

這是因為美國對伊朗發動了全面戰爭。

And if this war continues, then the world will be ripped off of 20% of the global supply of oil.

如果這場戰爭持續下去，全球供應的石油將會短缺20%。

So if you do math, mathematically, you know that there will be a huge, huge shortage of oil, which is why oil prices skyrocketed this much.

所以如果我們計算一下，數學上，你會知道將會出現嚴重、嚴重的缺油，這就是油價飆升這麼多的原因。

But if you look at oil prices, there is a massive crash in oil prices.

但如果你看看油價，卻出現了大幅下跌。

So what exactly has happened over the last 24 hours?

所以過去24小時到底發生了什麼事？

That oil prices went down from almost as high as $120 to as low as $88.

油價從接近120美元跌到88美元。

And will oil prices continue falling down?

Or this is a temporary situation and oil prices will go back to $120, maybe $200 per barrel.

或是這是暫時的狀況，油價會回到120美元，甚至200美元一桶。

Now, to understand that, we simply have to understand how oil prices work.

為了理解這點，我們必須先了解油價是怎麼運作的。

Most people have no idea who exactly determines oil prices.

大多數人根本不知道到底是誰在決定油價。

People just assume that oil prices rise suddenly because over the last week, everybody suddenly started buying oil.

人們只是覺得，油價突然上漲是因為上週大家突然開始搶著買油。

Now what you need to understand about the markets is that there is how the market is operating today.

現在，關於市場，你需要了解的是，市場今天是如何運作的。

And, and then there is another thing that is called market expectations.

然後，還有另一件事叫做市場預期。

And these two things are completely different.

It doesn't actually matter what is happening to the market today.

市場今天實際發生了什麼事，其實並不重要。

Just because there is a war in Middle east, it doesn't mean that there is an instant shortage of oil in the market.

中東發生戰爭，並不代表市場上就立刻出現缺油。

There is still plenty of oil and it doesn't actually change the dynamic of the market.

市場上還是有足夠的油，這其實並不會改變市場的動態。

What it changes is about what is going to happen a few months from now.

改變的是關於幾個月後會發生什麼事。

So if this war goes on, let's say for three to six months, suddenly there is going to be a huge shortage of oil in the market.

所以如果這場戰爭持續下去，假設三到六個月，市場上突然就會出現嚴重的缺油。

And that's why investors are buying oil today.

這就是為什麼投資人今天會買進石油。

Not because they don't have oil today, but

不是因為他們今天沒有油，而是

rather they expect there is going to be a shortage of oil.

So if you want to understand what is happening to the prices today, you have to understand what investors believe is going to happen in the future.

所以如果你想了解今天價格的變動，你必須瞭解投資人相信未來會發生什麼事。

And that is why market expectation is far more important than than what is happening in the market today.

這也是為什麼市場預期比市場今天實際發生的事還重要得多。

And there are a lot of industries that very heavily depend on oil.

So if you look at the automotive, aviation, manufacturing, can you possibly drive your car if you don't have oil?

所以如果你看看汽車業、航空業、製造業，如果沒有油，你可能辦法開車嗎？

So all these gas stations are massively buying oil.

所以這些加油站都在大量買進石油。

You can't be shipping stuff around the world without oil.

沒有油，貨物就不能運送到世界各地。

The agriculture industry really depends on oil construction.

農業和建築業都非常依賴石油。

And I haven't even talked about the defense industry industry.

So fundamentally, even though that oil as a result of the total GDP does not represents a huge amount, but

所以基本上，雖然石油佔總體國內生產總值的比例不高，

Because if we suddenly get rid out of oil, we can't be even building Tesla cars that does not run on oil, but

因為如果我們突然沒有石油了，我們甚至連不耗油的 Tesla 電動車都造不出來，

And here is where Wall street comes into the picture.

Wall street understands that in fact Wall street makes money because they understand that people are afraid, they manipulate the market.

所以華爾街基本上知道，其實華爾街之所以賺錢，是因為他們知道大家害怕，他們在操縱市場。

Most people are doing real businesses and Wall street is sitting down there.

大多數人都在做實業，而華爾街就坐在那裡。

All they're doing is that they're speculating on the price of a commodity.

他們所做的，只是在投機某種商品的價格。

So imagine you are a Wall street banker or a hedge fund manager and you're sitting down in Wall street and you're thinking, oh, there is a war in Iran.

所以想像一下，你是一位華爾街的銀行家或避險基金經理，你坐在華爾街，心想，哦，伊朗發生戰爭了。

It means unpredictability about the future.

So as a Wall street, how am I going to make money out of it?

所以身為華爾街，我要怎麼從中獲利呢？

Now that war instantly creates a fear for the aviation industry.

現在這場戰爭立刻就讓航空業產生了恐懼。

So aviation industry wants to secure a smaller or a lower price of oil today so that if this war continues, they won't be paying $200 per barrel.

所以航空業今天就想鎖定比較便宜的油價，這樣如果這場戰爭持續下去，他們就不會付每桶200塊美金。

So what they will do is that they will be buying futures.

所以他們會做的就是，他們會去買期貨。

A future is basically a contract that says that I'm going to buy a certain amount of oil at a specific price at a certain time in the future.

期貨基本上就是一份合約，上面寫著我會在未來的某個特定時間，用一個特定的價格買進一定數量的石油。

So that could be 30 days from now or 60 days from now.

所以這可能是30天後，或是60天後。

And a future contract is very important in the global economy is because from the time that oil is extracted, let's say from Saudi Arabia, and

而期貨合約在全球經濟中非常重要，因為從石油被開採出來的那一刻起，假設是從沙烏地阿拉伯，然後

then it is refined and then shipped to the other parts of the world, let's say the United States, it is going to take some time.

經過提煉，再運送到世界其他地方，像是美國，這都需要一些時間。

So a future contract allows this transaction to happen because it secures the price for the aviation company and it also secures the price and the demand for the oil extracting company, because they're extracting oil and they know that they have a client.

所以期貨合約讓這筆交易能夠發生，因為它為航空公司鎖定了價格，同時也為石油開採公司鎖定了價格和需求，因為他們在開採石油，而且知道他們有客戶。

But here's the problem is that in the financial markets, everybody can buy these future contracts.

但問題是，在金融市場上，任何人都可以買這些期貨合約。

A hedge fund manager can buy the future contracts.

避險基金經理人可以買這些期貨合約。

So if there is a lot of fear in the market that there is going to be a shortage of oil in the market, what do you think all these aviation companies are doing?

所以如果市場上充斥著大家擔心會缺油的恐慌情緒，你覺得這些航空公司會怎麼做？

They are buying a lot of futures, securing the price of oil before the price jumps to $200.

他們會大量買進期貨，鎖定油價，以免油價飆漲到兩百塊。

And if I'm a hedge fund manager in Wall Street, I don't need that oil.

如果我是華爾街的避險基金經理人，我並不需要那些石油。

All I want is to make as much money as possible.

So just like the aviation industry, I know that they will need a lot of oil.

所以就像航空業一樣，我知道他們會需要大量的石油。

I will be buying a lot of futures, securing the price of oil, let's say at, I don't know, like $60 or $70.

我會大量買進期貨，鎖定油價，假設在，我不知道，像是六十塊或七十塊。

So because I'm buying, so much of oil is rising.

所以因為我在買，所以大量的石油價格正在上漲。

Everybody is buying futures and Wall street is buying even more futures, reinforcing the demand for the price.

大家都在買期貨，華爾街買的期貨更多，這推升了對價格的需求。

And the price of oil is rising dramatically way faster than it's supposed to.

油價正在以遠超預期的速度飆升。

But now suddenly we have news that G7 countries are going to release a portion of their strategic reserves into the market.

但現在突然有消息傳出，G7國家將釋出部分戰略儲油進入市場。

A lot of countries understand that oil is literally the bloodline of their economies.

很多國家都明白，石油簡直就是他們經濟的命脈。

Without oil, there is no manufact oil, there are no cars.

沒有石油，就沒有製造業，就沒有汽車。

So countries held a lot or hold a lot of oil in strategic reserves just in case if something happens.

所以各國持有大量或正在持有大量石油作為戰略儲備，以防萬一。

And G7 countries, which are the United States, Japan, the UK or the seven leading global economies, hold about 1.4 billion barrels.

而G7國家，包括美國、日本、英國，這七個全球領先的經濟體，持有大約14億桶。

And that is enough for more than 100 days of the oil consumption that these countries have today.

這足以應付這些國家目前超過100天的石油消耗量。

And also there is another extra 600 million barrels that is being held by private companies.

另外，還有私人公司持有額外的6億桶。

So G7 countries told us that we might be releasing some of its oil to the market in order to release the shock and give the market some time to adjust.

所以G7國家告訴我們，他們可能會釋放部分石油到市場，以緩解衝擊，並給市場一些時間來調整。

What message does that send to the aviation industry?

Said, wait a second, why would I overpay for oil today if these countries are going to release billions of barrels of oil into the market, which is going to oversupply the market, which is why now the aviation industry or the aviation companies are no longer buying the futures.

說，等一下，如果這些國家要釋放數十億桶石油到市場，導致市場供過於求，那我今天為什麼要為石油支付過高的價格？這就是為什麼現在航空業或航空公司不再購買期貨。

When you're buying a future, you're not actually putting the entire money.

當你購買期貨時，你實際上並沒有支付全部的錢。

When you're buying a future, all you do is you put a small margin that is usually 5 to 8%.

當你購買期貨時，你只需要支付一小筆保證金，通常是5%到8%。

So if I'm buying oil for $100, I don't have to pay a hundred dollars.

所以如果我以100美元購買石油，我就不必支付100美元。

All I have to do is just pay $5 and I will secure the price for a hundred dollars.

我只需要支付5美元，就可以鎖定100美元的價格。

Now suddenly, because of this news, all these companies are no longer afraid because this is enough for the next couple of months.

現在突然間，因為這個消息，所有這些公司都不再害怕了，因為這足夠他們未來幾個月使用。

And in two to three months from now, maybe the war is going to be over.

而且從現在的兩到三個月來看，戰爭可能就結束了。

Maybe they will find another way to supply the market with oil.

也許他們會找到其他方法來供應市場的石油。

So why would we be overpaying $200 per barrel.

那為什麼我們要為每桶油多付200美元呢？

The second reason is that China also has a lot of strategic reserves, which is about 1.2 billion barrels.

第二個原因是中國也有很多戰略儲備，大約有12億桶。

And that is enough to sustain the Chinese economy for 115 days.

So if all of this oil suddenly will be thrown into the market, you know that there won't be any shortage.

所以如果這些石油突然全部湧入市場，你知道就不會有缺油的問題了。

And also the Trump administration, and Trump himself personally said that we might be removing sanctions from Russia.

還有川普政府，川普本人也說過我們可能會解除對俄羅斯的制裁。

Russia is one of the largest producers of oil in the world.

俄羅斯是世界上最大的石油生產國之一。

它的產量和沙烏地阿拉伯一樣多。

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伊朗戰爭：史上最大石油危機！ (Iran War: The Biggest Oil Shock In History)

massive

situation

crisis

determine