Name: 伊朗在中東專家預測美以戰爭中「仍有許多底牌可打」！ (Iran has ‘many cards yet to play’ in war with U.S., Israel predicts Middle East expert)
Uploaded: 2026-03-09T23:06:13.000Z
Duration: 12 min 14 s

Julian, you've been able to confirm a report that appeared first in the Washington Post saying U.S.

Julian，你確認了《華盛頓郵報》最先報導的一份報告，說美國

程度副詞

intelligence agency concluded before the war that even a large scale attack on Iran is unlikely to deliver regime change.

情報機構在開戰前就斷定，即使大規模攻擊伊朗，也不太可能達成政權更迭。

What more are you hearing about that intel report and how the President views it?

關於那份情報報告，以及總統對它的看法，你還有聽到什麼消息嗎？

Well, look, it's important to remember that intel report is a product of the National Intelligence Council, and

嗯，你看，很重要的一點是，那份情報報告是國家情報委員會的產物，

sometimes that group is bringing in reports from across all the spy agencies.

有時候這個委員會會匯集來自所有情治機構的報告。

But in this case, this report reflected the views of the NIC and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.

但在這個案例中，這份報告反映了國家情報委員會和國家情報總監辦公室的看法。

Nevertheless, intelligence officials are in general skeptical that at this point the Iranian opposition can take power.

不過，情報官員普遍對伊朗反對派此刻能否掌權持懷疑態度。

The most likely result of this war is a continuation of, of the theocratic government.

這場戰爭最可能出現的結果是，神權政府會持續下去。

Trump administration officials will tell you there's limited influence that the US can have in picking a new government.

川普政府官員會告訴你，美國在挑選新政府方面的影響力有限。

Yet, as you have made reference to, President Trump has called for regime change.

不過，就像你提到的，川普總統曾呼籲政權更迭。

He has said he wants a hand in picking the next government.

他說他想參與挑選下一個政府。

But those are easy things to say and harder things to execute on.

Because we've heard the President say that while they had their eyes on some people, those people, the person that he had handpicked at that point was taken out by Israel as well as successors down the line taken out by Israel.

因為我們聽總統說過，雖然他們關注著一些人，但當時他屬意的那個人，以及後來繼任者，都被以色列除掉了。

We reported in the New York Times yesterday that when the US When Israel took that initial strike to killing the Supreme Leader and other top national security officials in Iran, there was another meeting down the hall where more people were killed.

我們昨天在紐約時報報導，當美國、當以色列對伊朗最高領袖和其他國家安全官員發動第一次擊殺行動時，樓下還有另一個會議，更多人被殺了。

And those included some of the people that the Trump administration had identified as pragmatists, people who might make a more conciliatory government.

其中就包括一些川普政府認為是務實派的人，那些可能組成一個較和解政府的人。

These aren't moderates by any traditional definition, but

這些人並非傳統定義上的溫和派，但

they are the people Trump was talking about when a couple times he said, you know, there were people we could deal with, but

他們就是川普說的那些人，他有幾次說，你知道，有些人我們可以打交道，但

So Dana Reuters is reporting some cracks in Iranian leadership with angry divisions between hardliners and the more pragmatic factions, fueled in part by the President's promise to not strike Gulf states.

所以路透社報導說，伊朗領導層出現了一些裂痕，強硬派和更務實的派系之間存在憤怒的分歧，部分原因是總統承諾不打擊海灣國家。

What forced the President to make that promise, and how fractured is Iran's leadership right now?

是什麼迫使總統做出這個承諾，以及伊朗領導層現在有多分裂？

Well, I think the challenge with the Iranian president making that statement is that he doesn't really reflect the decision making of the Iranian state.

嗯，我認為伊朗總統發表聲明面臨的挑戰是，他並沒有真正反映伊朗國家的決策。

And so the minute people who are Iran watchers followed this, they.

所以，伊朗觀察家們一注意到這一點，他們就。

I think the reaction was, why would he say that at the exact moment that there were Iranian projectiles in the air targeting some Gulf states?

我認為當時的反應是，為什麼他在伊朗彈藥飛向一些海灣國家時說出這樣的話？

And very quickly, the other elements of the Iranian Apparatus rose up and said, no, that's not what's happening at all.

而且很快，伊朗體系的其他部分站出來說，不，根本不是這樣。

We're not targeting Gulf states, we're targeting US Military interests in these states, which of course they're not.

我們不是在針對海灣國家，我們是在針對這些國家內的美國軍事利益，當然他們不是。

And then we actually saw the Iranian President Bezeshkian backtrack later today.

然後我們今天確實看到伊朗總統貝澤什基揚後來改口了。

So I think this just underscores the crisis of the moment and that US Policymakers like President Trump, to the extent that he's making policy, need to not have knee jerk reactions, putting this stuff on truth social without listening to experts within his national security structure explaining the context behind these statements.

所以，我認為這就突顯了當前的危機，美國決策者，像是川普總統，如果他真的在制定政策的話，需要避免衝動反應，在沒有聽取國家安全體系內專家解釋這些說法的背景脈絡之前，就急著在 Truth Social 上發布。

And to that end, Dana, given America's long held plans for an attack of this nature, how would you assess Iran's response so far?

而且說到這個，Dana，考量到美國對這類攻擊的長期計畫，你怎麼評估伊朗到目前為止的反應？

Have they exploited all their options yet?

他們是不是已經用盡所有選項了？

No, I think they have many cards yet to play.

沒有，我認為他們還有很多牌可以打。

So what they're doing right now is part of the worst case scenario.

所以他們現在做的，就是最壞情況的一部分。

Those of us who used to look at what going to war with Iran would mean in terms of retaliatory options, and

我們這些過去研究過與伊朗開戰的後果，以及報復選項的人，

They've started to target energy infrastructure, they've targeted U.S. diplomatic facilities, they're targeting U.S.

他們開始攻擊能源基礎設施，他們攻擊了美國外交設施，他們正在攻擊美國

military bases, they're targeting Israel, but they have not expanded more broadly.

軍事基地，他們正在攻擊以色列，但他們並沒有更廣泛地擴張。

They're not targeting humans, huge amounts of energy infrastructure, desalination plants.

他們沒有攻擊人類，大量的能源基礎設施，海水淡化廠。

They have not activated terror networks abroad in Europe or the United States.

他們並沒有在歐洲或美國啟動海外的恐怖網絡。

So this looks to me like a security apparatus that's holding some of its cards to respond to what it expects is going to be more pressure down the line.

所以在我看來，這像是個安全機構，他們保留了一些籌碼，以應對他們預期接下來會面臨的更大壓力。

And Julian, the President now says Iran was responsible for the deadly strikes on a girls school in southern Iran that killed as many as 175 people, including children.

朱利安，總統現在說，伊朗要為伊朗南部一所女子學校的致命襲擊負責，那次襲擊造成多達 175 人死亡，其中包括兒童。

But several news outlets, including yours, concludes the strikes were taken in an area where US Forces were targeting.

但包括貴臺在內的幾家新聞媒體都認為，襲擊發生在美軍鎖定的區域。

What is your assessment of the President's new theory?

你認為總統的這個新說法怎麼樣？

Yeah, this does not seem very likely that Iran did it.

嗯，伊朗做這件事的可能性似乎不大。

New York Times reporting suggests it's very likely a U.S. strike.

《紐約時報》的報導顯示，這很可能是美軍的襲擊。

You saw Secretary Hegseth jump in after the President spoke to say that they were investigating but, you know, tried to shift blame to Iran, where then the president grabbed that and just said Iran was responsible.

你看到海塞斯部長在總統發言後介入，說他們正在調查，但你知道，試圖將責任推給伊朗，然後總統就抓住了這一點，直接說伊朗要負責。

Look, Iran did not shoot a missile at its own school, did not kill its own school children.

看，伊朗不會朝自己的學校發射飛彈，不會殺害自己的學童。

And it's very different how the US Is handling this, how the Trump administration is handling it compared to, you know, collateral damage, accidental strikes.

而美國處理這件事的方式，川普政府處理的方式，跟你知道的附帶損害、意外襲擊，是截然不同的。

In wars past, you know, we've usually gotten a lot more information a lot faster as the Pentagon is investigating it.

在過去的戰爭中，你知道，隨著五角大廈的調查，我們通常能更快獲得更多資訊。

It's very likely this is going to turn out to be a U.S.

strike and one of the biggest mistakes of this war.

襲擊，以及這場戰爭中最大的錯誤之一。

So, Dana, after Trump said yesterday Iran was about to be hit hard, sure strikes were launched on Iran's oil infrastructure.

所以，Dana，在川普昨天說伊朗即將遭受重擊後，當然，伊朗的石油基礎設施就遭到了襲擊。

Among the options that Iran has at its fingertips now are what, what, what could happen, if anything, here domestically.

伊朗現在手上的選項有哪些，有哪些，有哪些可能會發生，如果有的話，在這裡國內。

Are you talking about potentially Internet disruptions?

Are you talking about attacks on our oil infrastructure in some way, whether it be they covert or otherwise?

你是指以某種方式攻擊我們的石油基礎設施，無論是祕密進行還是其他方式？

Well, Iran has options to escalate geographically so they could widen the scope of their attacks.

嗯，伊朗有在地理上擴大衝突的選項，所以他們可以擴大攻擊的範圍。

They've been mostly concentrated in the Gulf and toward Israel, but

他們大多集中在波斯灣和以色列方向，但

there have been attacks in Azerbaijan, Turkey and the British base in Cyprus.

在亞塞拜然、土耳其和賽普勒斯的英國基地也發生了攻擊。

So we could see the Iranians, their missile range and their drones can go beyond what we've seen.

所以我們可能會看到伊朗，他們的飛彈射程和無人機可以超越我們所見過的範圍。

So geographic number two is Iran operates a global network of terrorist cells.

所以地理上的第二個選項是，伊朗經營著一個全球性的恐怖組織網絡。

We know from past disclosed operations that they've tried to target officials in the United States.

從過去已公開的行動中我們知道，他們曾試圖攻擊美國的官員。

We know that they've targeted individuals in Europe and in Latin America.

我們知道他們曾在歐洲和拉丁美洲鎖定目標。

So there are more kinds of civilian infrastructure, electrical grids, desalination plants, further energy infrastructure that would have severe economic blowback, not only in the Gulf countries, but

所以有更多類型的民用基礎設施，像是電網、海水淡化廠、進一步的能源基礎設施，這不僅會在海灣國家造成嚴重的經濟反彈，

because the Gulf countries and the Middle east are this geotechnological crossroads for the entire world.

因為海灣國家和中東是整個世界的地緣技術十字路口。

Let's also take a look at what the White House is doing today, which is defending, actually

我們也來看看白宮今天在做什麼，其實是在辯護

the fact that it is suspending the sanctions on Russia to allow them to sell oil now legally.

暫停對俄羅斯的制裁，讓他們現在可以合法地賣石油。

We're worried about Iran and fixing a 47 year problem there, and we're worried about American consumers.

我們擔心伊朗，以及解決那裡長達 47 年的問題，我們也擔心美國的消費者。

Look, Russia, Russia's expert at causing trouble around the world.

看看，俄羅斯，俄羅斯是個在世界各地製造麻煩的專家。

If they're helping Iran, it's not working very well.

如果他們在幫助伊朗，那效果並不是很好。

But we're not helping Russia by just accelerating the sale of their oil to stop the rise of energy prices and keep European and Asian refineries in oil.

但我們並沒有透過加速他們的石油銷售來阻止能源價格上漲，並讓歐洲和亞洲的煉油廠有石油，來幫助俄羅斯。

We're just doing pragmatic things to get through a short period that will bring in an era of even lower energy prices.

我們只是做些務實的事，撐過這段時間，迎來能源價格更低的時代。

Will prices stabilize quickly as a result of this?

And what other steps will the US and the Gulf allies need to make that happen?

美國和海灣盟友還需要採取哪些步驟才能達成這個目標？

So, no, prices are not going to stabilize quickly.

所以，不，價格不會快速穩定下來。

Some of this is market reaction to what's happening.

其中一些是市場對正在發生的事情的反應。

Russia absolutely benefits from getting sanctions relief by Indian oil purchases.

印度購買石油確實讓俄羅斯獲得了制裁減免。

And Russia in general benefits from the United States being at war with Iran.

而總體來說，美國與伊朗交戰對俄羅斯是有利的。

One, the preponderance of our military focus is in the Middle east right now, which means it's not on Ukraine and Russia.

第一，我們大部分的軍事重心目前都在中東，這意味著不在烏克蘭和俄羅斯身上。

Number two, the Russians get to watch us wear down our military forces and spend munitions and missile interceptors in the Middle east, which means we can't be selling and supporting others in other theaters.

第二，俄羅斯可以看著我們在中東消耗軍事力量，以及消耗彈藥和飛彈攔截器，這意味著我們無法在其他戰區進行銷售和支援。

And three, with Iranian oil and Gulf oil coming off the market, both illicit sales, and

而且第三，隨著伊朗和海灣國家的石油退出市場，無論是非法銷售，

then, of course, legitimate, transparent sales from the Gulf countries, this opens up opportunities for Russia to sell.

還有，當然，來自海灣國家的合法、透明的銷售，這都為俄羅斯打開了銷售機會。

Do you get any sense of what officials are really saying about how long this could last?

你感覺到官員們對於這場衝突還會持續多久有什麼說法嗎？

Well, that is the most important question here.

嗯，這才是這裡最重要的問題。

You get the sense that President Trump is sort of feeling his way through here.

你感覺到川普總統似乎正在摸索前進。

We've got a lot of unresolved issues here.

這裡還有很多懸而未決的問題。

We have not yet seen whether the Iranian people will take an opportunity to rise up.

我們還沒看到伊朗人民是否會抓住機會起義。

We have the question of the highly enriched uranium at Iran's nuclear sites that has not yet been secured, dealt with.

我們還有一個問題，那就是伊朗核 sites 的高濃縮鈾尚未得到安全處理。